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ATD 2013 - Draft Thread III

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Old
02-11-2013, 02:02 PM
  #601
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Henrik's rise to this draft spot is fair. Bowie's fall to his draft spot was not fair. Their offensive abilities are not close.
We can't even have a sensible discussion about Bowie at this point because the guys against whom he competed won't start getting drafted for another couple hundred picks...which is sort of the problem in evaluating his career.

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02-11-2013, 02:13 PM
  #602
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
We can't even have a sensible discussion about Bowie at this point because the guys against whom he competed won't start getting drafted for another couple hundred picks...which is sort of the problem in evaluating his career.
You can't compare him to Tommy Phillips or Hod Stuart statistically or with real certainty, because they all played in different leagues, but they were contemporaries, and anecdotally at least, they seem to have been on similar levels as players, right? Bowie, as a tiny goal scoring center who doesn't seem to provide much else, is by far the hardest of the three to build around though.

Bowie was the best goal scorer of his era by a good margin, but competition is definitely a question there.


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02-11-2013, 02:17 PM
  #603
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Hen Sedin is a great pick, but is Mark making him his 3rd line C? That makes no sense to me.

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02-11-2013, 02:25 PM
  #604
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Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
Hen Sedin is a great pick, but is Mark making him his 3rd line C? That makes no sense to me.
A Sedin in a checking role? No, doesn't make sense at all.

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02-11-2013, 02:27 PM
  #605
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A Sedin in a checking role? No, doesn't make sense at all.
He's going with 3 high octane scorong lines, thats obvious (so is his next pick). I just think the Sedins would need top 6 minutes to produce at this level.

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02-11-2013, 02:28 PM
  #606
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Originally Posted by BubbaBoot View Post
A Sedin in a checking role? No, doesn't make sense at all.
Why does almost everyone have the perception that 3rd C = checking role? There's easily enough talent in the ATD pool to make 4 scoring lines, let alone just 3.

I will pick shortly..

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02-11-2013, 02:29 PM
  #607
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Originally Posted by BubbaBoot View Post
A Sedin in a checking role? No, doesn't make sense at all.
In a possession oriented system, he is capable.

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02-11-2013, 02:31 PM
  #608
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Originally Posted by Reds4Life View Post
Why does almost everyone have the perception that 3rd C = checking role? There's easily enough talent in the ATD pool to make 4 scoring lines, let alone just 3.

I will pick shortly..
I would vote a team that is structured with four scoring lines dead last. This isn't Peewee.

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02-11-2013, 02:33 PM
  #609
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Originally Posted by Reds4Life View Post
Why does almost everyone have the perception that 3rd C = checking role? There's easily enough talent in the ATD pool to make 4 scoring lines, let alone just 3.

I will pick shortly..
Hockey teams can't be on the attack all the time - you need guys who can take defensive zone draws, match up to superstars of other teams, kill penalties, and shut things down when you are clinging to a lead.

That said, mark still has options for his team, and I know where I would go if I were him.

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02-11-2013, 02:34 PM
  #610
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Lindsay - Kennedy will be used against opposing top lines. Also for whoever mentioned puck possession as a style of "defense" gets 100 internet points.

TBH I started off this draft saying i'm going to draft on "value" as oppossed to "need", and get great value in different parts of the game.

As TDMM mentioned you do need a "go to center" for those defensive zone draws, Ted Kennedy more then fits the bill.

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02-11-2013, 02:38 PM
  #611
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Lindsay - Kennedy will be used against opposing top lines. Also for whoever mentioned puck possession as a style of "defense" gets 100 internet points.
Obvious move, though how it works out really depends on how you finish out your lines.

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02-11-2013, 02:39 PM
  #612
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I'll take Gary Roberts, LW.

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02-11-2013, 02:43 PM
  #613
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Bowie was the best goal scorer of his era by a good margin, but competition is definitely a question there.
The guys against whom Bowie competed in the ECAHA at the end of his peak will be drafted sooner, but Bowie didn't actually dominate those guys, which complicates matters. Bowie competes against other centers in the ATD, which is a totally different animal than LWs (and glue guys) and defensemen. However comparable Bowie's talent may be to that of Stuart and Phillips, his value in an ATD setting is not comparable to those guys.

I find the continued rise of Phillips and Stuart somewhat inexplicable, to be honest. I like them both, but I can't really justify how high they have risen. I have Stuart in the tier that ends with guys like Stanley and Desjardins, not in the tier with guys like Pronovost or Moose, which is evidently what some people believe. Phillips, I could easily see myself drafting after Robitaille, Kariya and Schriner. I would be hard pressed if looking for a scoringline glue guy at LW, and forced to choose between he and Brian Propp.

I think Bowie is a good choice for an offensive scoringline center as soon as Frederickson is taken (going by the tiers as things have been lately), and...well, he was actually the first offensive center taken after Frederickson this year. So this seems about right. Of course, Bowie could go the pick directly after Frederickson and it would still make sense, so this isn't bad value for him.

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02-11-2013, 02:52 PM
  #614
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
You do realize that 99% of the bios have quotes from GHL right?
*
Really, 99%?
*
Anyway, point is Joe Pelletier is just like one of us, he’s not an authority. He didn’t see the majority of the players he commented on and he obviously didn’t see Grant. Posts using Joe Pelletier to “prove” something have just gotten more common in recent years and I thought it was time to say something about it.

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Originally Posted by SchultzSquared View Post
If our evidence for Krutov using roids is that his play dropped off suspiciously after one season we need to look at every player who that ever happened to... it's only fair... otherwise it's baseless speculation... and really jingoistic in a sense... not a coincidence that it's the Russian(s) who always get hit with this. Look at Ovechkin now... about as much proof he's a juicer... and it's all over the main boards like an accepted fact.

To go back to Van Islanders post about this thing... Krutov is unlucky he doesn't have a friend like the one he mentioned to PM people with lawsuit threats.

Show us a drug test... otherwise we can speculate all we want but it should have zero impact on the All Time Draft.
*
So you really think that Krutov is no more likely to have used steroids than any other player?

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Originally Posted by Hobnobs View Post
What are you guys on about. Ofcourse ephedrine enhances your performance...


Ephedrine is particularly good when training as you can work out more and loose body weight. There was also reports about NHL players taking it during games.
*
Sudafed? Come on. I realize it’s a banned substance and it should be, because technically it improves performance, but let’s be realistic here, the effect is so minimal that it is really irrelevant compared to a years’ long regimen of steroid use. It’s like “caffeine but better”.

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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
One of these days, I'm going to return to the draft and build an ATD party team. Busher Jackson can bartend for the first line, and when he can be bothered, try to work the puck to Phil "Thunder and Lightning" Esposito and Theo Slurry. Would they ever win the puck? Who knows, but they'd have a good time trying!

For the second line, I'd like to go for an all-burnouts unit. Krutov next to pumpkinhead Lindros who I don't think ever took anything other than headache medication, but painkillers will have to do. On the RW, I dunno. For an all-party team, the left wing is actually a much deeper position, which is kinda wierd. I may have to switch a natural LW to the right, like Brendan "all your wife are belong to us" Shanahan.

Third line will be taken directly from the early-70's Bruins. The coach, too.

On the defense, the top pairing will obviously be Doug Harvey and Harry Cameron. After that, it gets kinda tough. An undrafted can play on the second pairing as the team dealer, but after him I can't think of any shady defensemen off the top of my head. Let's just go with Sprague Cleghorn to complete the second pairing. He can be the team bouncer.

Grant Fuhr in goal, with Ed "billion dollar" Belfour backing him up.
*
LOL
*
Except Belfour should be the starter.
*
Unless, Grant is the starter because he’s more of a party animal. In which case I agree.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BubbaBoot View Post
Got a few I really like right now including this one that I'm not going to pass up.

The Boston Mules select C/D Ebbie Goodfellow

*
A steal!

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Originally Posted by BubbaBoot View Post
All right, got so,e guys that are close but i liek the two way play of this guy.

Boston Mules pick RW Claude Provost

*
I had no idea he played until he was 85. Wow!

Quote:
Originally Posted by nik jr View Post
something i have been wondering: is yvan cournoyer really better than theoren fleury?

they are similar players, and both played about 15 seasons, but i think fleury was probably better offensively, was a regular PKer and was very gritty. cournoyer was a PP specialist early in his career. fleury obviously has the nasty off-ice problems which hurt his career, and was heavily penalized.

cournoyer had a fantastic playoff career, but fleury was great in playoffs, too. both represented team canada.

there is also the issue of diluted post-expansion period, vs larger league with europeans and americans during fleury's career.

one of the problems with comparing players primarily on where they ranked in scoring is that it ignores whether someone was the prime mover of his team's offense, or whether someone was the 3rd best offensive player on his team, or even the 3rd best player on his line.

in mid/late '90s, fleury was one of the top W's in the league, and often led calgary in scoring by big margins.

'96 flames
fleury: 96p
(undrafted): 67p

'98 flames
fleury: 78p
(undrafted): 49p

'99 flames
fleury: 69p in 60 games (later traded to colorado)
(undrafted): 57p in 76 games
*
I think you’re likely right, and I don’t think the list of players who compare favourably to Cournoyer starts or ends with Fleury, either. There are a ton of RWs who no one has taken a close enough look at (or we haven’t taken a close enough look at him), and whose resumes slowly but definitively have become better than his.
*
I remember when I got him at #130 in ATD10, it was “late” for him, and I thought it was a steal!

Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
I really like Lanny, and especially how he finished off his career, but I'd pick Middleton over him with no hesitation.
*
Agree.

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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I have been wondering recently if Brindy will ever get a shot at his natural position (and not as some grinding winger) on an ATD second line. I think he is deserving. His scoring compares quite well to one other established two-way 2nd line center:

Jacques Lemaire Vs2:
91, 79, 74, 72, 71, 64, 61, 59

Rod Brind'Amour Vs2:
81, 81, 73, 72, 69, 63, 60, 58

And that's without taking the Lafleur effect into account. To be honest, I think Rod was the better overall player.
*
You’re probably right. And though Lemaire was strong defensively, he wasn’t challenging for the Selke.
*
Which of those percentages correspond to a year centering Lafleur? I know he didn’t do it every year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
This was one of the players I was thinking of when I said after Bowie was drafted that there are other candidates for best offensive player available. Henrik's rise is justified.
*
There are lots of good reasons to suspect Henrik’s rise is not justified – maybe not even the rise he made last year.
*
1.*** His high assists finishes are typically touted as justification, but his points finishes are not that special in comparison: just 1st, 4th, and 7th.
2.*** That his point totals were more heavily skewed towards assists compared to any other modern ATD player (easily dethroning the old king, Adam Oates) is not a good thing for two reasons: one, goals are typically valued more than assists, and two, it makes his play predictable (same argument used against Thornton). This is also demonstrated in this year’s Hockey Prospectus, which calls him the 17th-best offensive forward since the lockout. In comparisons where the points finishes are similar, I’d assume you’d choose the guy who was more balanced.
3.*** Comparable players available right now were typical ATD caliber centers who usually played with wingers nowhere near their skill level. Henrik didn’t have that problem. In comparisons where offensive output and balance are similar, I’d assume you’d choose the guy who did it with less help.
4.*** Advanced stats have shed more light on his stats. Due to coaching, he tends to face lower quality competition than stars with similar numbers, and he starts an unprecedented percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone. While no advanced study that I know of has tried to quantify those effects and normalize them from player to player or team to team, I think we can agree that if he was used like other star forwards he would score less. What’s worse, his change in scoring can be traced directly to a coaching change. Post-lockout, he was at 0.96 PPG, and he’s at 1.15 PPG since. In comparisons where the offensive output, balance and linemates were similar, I’d assume you’d choose the guy whose production didn’t seem to be so heavily dependent on coaching strategy.

I agree we can mostly judge offensive forwards for how they produce, but remember, it’s a symptom of how good they are, as well as other factors, and we’re really picking players for how good they are, and not just what their numbers say. We need to be able to consider how good they’d be in a wide range of situations and not just how good they appeared to be in one very unique situation. Put all the other ATD centers taken from 150-300 in his situation (career long elite linemate, extremely heavy offensive zone usage) and they produce more. Put him in their situation (wide range of linemates, standard star forward usage) and he produces less.


Last edited by seventieslord: 02-11-2013 at 03:31 PM.
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02-11-2013, 02:53 PM
  #615
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Originally Posted by Reds4Life View Post
Why does almost everyone have the perception that 3rd C = checking role? There's easily enough talent in the ATD pool to make 4 scoring lines, let alone just 3.

I will pick shortly..
I thought that constructing these teams were being based on real-life scenarios and not just pure numbers. Otherwise why would anyone care about two-way players?

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02-11-2013, 02:54 PM
  #616
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I'll take Gary Roberts, LW.
DAMN! Like Fleury, another type of player I like and coveted.

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02-11-2013, 02:55 PM
  #617
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This is also demonstrated in this year’s Hockey Prospectus, which calls him the 17th-best offensive forward since the lockout. In comparisons where the points finishes are similar, I’d assume you’d choose the guy who was more balanced.
LOL, Id like to see that list, because he's easily top 5-10.

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02-11-2013, 02:58 PM
  #618
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*

I had no idea he played until he was 85. Wow!
Hunh?

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02-11-2013, 02:59 PM
  #619
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
*

You’re probably right. And though Lemaire was strong defensively, he wasn’t challenging for the Selke.
*
Which of those percentages correspond to a year centering Lafleur? I know he didn’t do it every year.


*
There are lots of good reasons to suspect Henrik’s rise is justified – maybe not even the rise he made last year.
*
1.*** His high assists finishes are typically touted as justification, but his points finishes are not that special in comparison: just 1st, 4th, and 7th.
2.*** That his point totals were more heavily skewed towards assists compared to any other modern ATD player (easily dethroning the old king, Adam Oates) is not a good thing for two reasons: one, goals are typically valued more than assists, and two, it makes his play predictable (same argument used against Thornton). This is also demonstrated in this year’s Hockey Prospectus, which calls him the 17th-best offensive forward since the lockout. In comparisons where the points finishes are similar, I’d assume you’d choose the guy who was more balanced.
3.*** Comparable players available right now were typical ATD caliber centers who usually played with wingers nowhere near their skill level. Henrik didn’t have that problem. In comparisons where offensive output and balance are similar, I’d assume you’d choose the guy who did it with less help.
4.*** Advanced stats have shed more light on his stats. Due to coaching, he tends to face lower quality competition than stars with similar numbers, and he starts an unprecedented percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone. While no advanced study that I know of has tried to quantify those effects and normalize them from player to player or team to team, I think we can agree that if he was used like other star forwards he would score less. What’s worse, his change in scoring can be traced directly to a coaching change. Post-lockout, he was at 0.96 PPG, and he’s at 1.15 PPG since. In comparisons where the offensive output, balance and linemates were similar, I’d assume you’d choose the guy whose production didn’t seem to be so heavily dependent on coaching strategy.

I agree we can mostly judge offensive forwards for how they produce, but remember, it’s a symptom of how good they are, as well as other factors, and we’re really picking players for how good they are, and not just what their numbers say. We need to be able to consider how good they’d be in a wide range of situations and not just how good they appeared to be in one very unique situation. Put all the other ATD centers taken from 150-300 in his situation (career long elite linemate, extremely heavy offensive zone usage) and they produce more. Put him in their situation (wide range of linemates, standard star forward usage) and he produces less.

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I skimmed over the majority of this, but who outside of probably Thornton has been a better playmaking center for the past 10-15 years?

Predictable? Lol so teams today have the luxury of letting him walk in and shoot knowing he will miss everytime? Failing to see your point.

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02-11-2013, 03:03 PM
  #620
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The eskimos will be glad to pair up Forsberg with a guy he had great chemistry with in the past,



Markus Naslund, LW

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02-11-2013, 03:04 PM
  #621
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The eskimos will be glad to pair up Forsberg with a guy he had great chemistry with in the past,



Markus Naslund, LW
My #2 after Roberts.....sigh*

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02-11-2013, 03:06 PM
  #622
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The eskimos will be glad to pair up Forsberg with a guy he had great chemistry with in the past,



Markus Naslund, LW
Your team just went up a few notches in my book...

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02-11-2013, 03:07 PM
  #623
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post

1.*** His high assists finishes are typically touted as justification, but his points finishes are not that special in comparison: just 1st, 4th, and 7th.
2.*** That his point totals were more heavily skewed towards assists compared to any other modern ATD player (easily dethroning the old king, Adam Oates) is not a good thing for two reasons: one, goals are typically valued more than assists, and two, it makes his play predictable (same argument used against Thornton). This is also demonstrated in this year’s Hockey Prospectus, which calls him the 17th-best offensive forward since the lockout. In comparisons where the points finishes are similar, I’d assume you’d choose the guy who was more balanced.
I basically agree with this. I would take a guy who scores 30 goals and 40 assists over a guy who scores 20 goals and 50 assists, even if the second guy had higher assist finishes. For guys who played after WW2 (meaning that the NHL has close to the modern ratio of assists per goal), I don't look at assist finishes at all when evaluating the quality of a player.

Assist finishes are useful to know the kind of player a center is, but not the quality. Point finishes really do a much better job of showing overall offensive production.

That said... Sedin's points finishes (and V2 points) are pretty strong for a guy drafted now, right?

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lulz!

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02-11-2013, 03:09 PM
  #624
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My #2 after Roberts.....sigh*
IMO, Markus Naslund is a much better player than Roberts, though obviously he doesn't fill the same role.

Nice job putting Naslund and Forsberg together. Normally, I don't care about junior hockey one bit in these things, but the skill sets of those two as adults do compliment each other quite well. Forsberg's "clutchness" does help out Naslunds "choking" too.


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 02-11-2013 at 03:16 PM.
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02-11-2013, 03:15 PM
  #625
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I just checked, and theres a whopping 3 players with more points than H.Sedin since 2005...(Crosby, Thornton, Malkin).

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