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Old
02-06-2013, 10:41 PM
  #51
Jets
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I dont think you guys are considering the uniqueness of this years draft though either. If any GM is smart, they aren't trading down if they land a top 8ish pick. Go back a couple years, even though they're supposedly not as good as this year, but for comparisons sake:

2010:
7th Overall -> Jeff Skinner F Carolina

11th Overall -> Jack Campbell G Dallas
28th Overall -> Charlie Coyle F Minnesota
43rd Overall -> Bradley Ross F Toronto

2009:
6th Overall -> Oliver Ekman Larsson D Phoenix

10th Overall -> Magnus Paajarvi F Edmonton
25th Overall -> Jordan Caron F Boston
40th Overall -> Anton Lander F Edmonton

===

Its just me arbitrarily picking the 6th or 7th pick and then comparing approximately the picks it would take to trade up for that. I dont think in either of those two years I would do either deal as a GM with a top 6-7 pick. This year should be even more difficult.

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02-06-2013, 11:09 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Jets View Post
I dont think you guys are considering the uniqueness of this years draft though either. If any GM is smart, they aren't trading down if they land a top 8ish pick. Go back a couple years, even though they're supposedly not as good as this year, but for comparisons sake:

2010:
7th Overall -> Jeff Skinner F Carolina

11th Overall -> Jack Campbell G Dallas
28th Overall -> Charlie Coyle F Minnesota
43rd Overall -> Bradley Ross F Toronto

2009:
6th Overall -> Oliver Ekman Larsson D Phoenix

10th Overall -> Magnus Paajarvi F Edmonton
25th Overall -> Jordan Caron F Boston
40th Overall -> Anton Lander F Edmonton

===

Its just me arbitrarily picking the 6th or 7th pick and then comparing approximately the picks it would take to trade up for that. I dont think in either of those two years I would do either deal as a GM with a top 6-7 pick. This year should be even more difficult.

However if say the jets have pick 6 and one or two teams that have picks 8 or 9 for example absolutely feel they need pick 6 and the jets board has at least 2 or 3 players they have above or at that level then you see what is offered.

The jets picked 9th last year , I think they would have taken Trouba with a much higher pick than 9 , and Chevy did say they indeed did have him rated "much higher than 9 ".

Cheveldayoff said today on Hustler and Lawless , when reviewing the draft this year , the abundance of picks ,he said "we'll know what every pick is worth".

Whether they move down , up , trade picks for players .... I expect the jets to be aggressive.

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02-07-2013, 04:11 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by lablite47 View Post
If we left it all up to him he wouldn't get any goals.. He needs someone to set him up!
He did good scoring with Burmi and Welly... not exactly ideal top6 pieces for 30 goals.

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02-07-2013, 05:12 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by jetkarma View Post
However if say the jets have pick 6 and one or two teams that have picks 8 or 9 for example absolutely feel they need pick 6 and the jets board has at least 2 or 3 players they have above or at that level then you see what is offered.

The jets picked 9th last year , I think they would have taken Trouba with a much higher pick than 9 , and Chevy did say they indeed did have him rated "much higher than 9 ".

Cheveldayoff said today on Hustler and Lawless , when reviewing the draft this year , the abundance of picks ,he said "we'll know what every pick is worth".

Whether they move down , up , trade picks for players .... I expect the jets to be aggressive.
Either way, it's pretty safe to say that the odds go down dramatically after picking in the top 10 to get an impact player that turns out to be a NHL regular. That's the reason why I'm never a fan of trading down from inside the top 10 to outside the top 10 and a pick between 7-10 is the most likeliest scenario IMO. I'm pretty sure we're not bad enough for a top 5 pick but also not good enough for a Playoff-spot pick. IF we move, I want us to move up for our 1st and one of our 2nd draft round picks. But that's probably not needed in this years draft.

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02-07-2013, 11:33 AM
  #55
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Originally Posted by jetkarma View Post
Whether they move down , up , trade picks for players .... I expect the jets to be aggressive.
I have to agree with you. Loaded up with picks, and lots of cap space is a luxury. I expect some larger trades between now and the deadline, and at the draft. Last year was pretty quiet IMO.

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02-07-2013, 11:40 AM
  #56
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When is the deadline this season?

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02-07-2013, 11:53 AM
  #57
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When is the deadline this season?
Sometime in Mid April I think.

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02-07-2013, 12:12 PM
  #58
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Deadline is April 3rd I believe.

They'll likely hold onto Hainsey through the deadline and let him go in the offseason. There is no reason to resign him. Focus on signing Bogosian (pending RFA). We have Enstrom, Buff, Stuart, Bogo (assuming he resigns) and then spots for Redmond and Postma next year. Let Clitsome go at the deadline, might get a 3rd rounder or something for him. Hainsey will likely play out the year here and be gone next year assuming Redmond and Postma look good enough by the end of this season that management is comfortable keeping them in the lineup next season.

Antropov is likely gone in the offseason but not at the deadline, they need to try and make room for Scheifele to crack the line up next year in a role that isn't going to just be a 10 MPG. Wellwood will likely be gone, he has found himself a healthy scratch a couple of times, he is smart but he is tiny and kinda useless. We should assume Mittens is gone too. If he is healthy at the deadline, he might get traded.... if not he will likely go to free agency in the summer.

Most of the deadline activity will depend on what shape we are in the standings. If we are likely to miss the playoffs, then Hainsey would likely be traded as well as Antropov. But if there is a playoff push to be made, those two will stick around. They are the players we could get the most in return, but would not get their value in return because they are both pending UFAs. They are worth more in the lineup if we are to make a playoff push then anything we would get in return.

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02-07-2013, 01:16 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
I have to agree with you. Loaded up with picks, and lots of cap space is a luxury. I expect some larger trades between now and the deadline, and at the draft. Last year was pretty quiet IMO.

I am big on listening to what people in decision positions say. Hearing not only the words but the inflection , how quickly they respond , how emphatic they state something. I always like hearing Chevy , he isn't on much but he isn't someone who gives as little information as possible, some management people certainly are.

When he said yesterday that the Jets will know what every draft pick is worth told me a lot. It told me they are spending the time and resources to fully scout every hockey source , that they know it is a deep draft at the top and through the 2nd and maybe third rounds , and that they will have opportunities. Being prepared and fully informed makes acting on opportunities more likely and more likely to end with a positive result.

One thing I have thought is that I don't believe ideally that the Jets would want 6 pretty high picks from the same draft just from a future contract point. IMO you would want that wealth spread spread out more , which lends me to believe that they very possibly will use some picks to either move up , trade for players or trade for future picks.

I completely get the impression that Chevy knows how important this draft is and the trade last year of Oduya didn't just kind of fall into place. He wanted picks for THIS year. Now I was a Hawk fan before the Jets were here and they still are my second team , so I love how well they have started, but it looks like the picks will be at the very ends of rounds two and three.

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02-07-2013, 01:28 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by GermanJetsFan View Post
Either way, it's pretty safe to say that the odds go down dramatically after picking in the top 10 to get an impact player that turns out to be a NHL regular. That's the reason why I'm never a fan of trading down from inside the top 10 to outside the top 10 and a pick between 7-10 is the most likeliest scenario IMO. I'm pretty sure we're not bad enough for a top 5 pick but also not good enough for a Playoff-spot pick. IF we move, I want us to move up for our 1st and one of our 2nd draft round picks. But that's probably not needed in this years draft.
Chevy knows the value of an impact player and imo won't trade that ( or the chance for that ) for volume.

That is why detailed the scenario I did , and I believe if we land up in that slot , it may be a possibility . However I totally want an elite level talent , an impact palyer , a difference maker , and always chose that over quantity , even if that quantity's quality is solid.

Saying that though , the more picks you have , the better the chances are that you hit on a later pick . Having 6 picks this high certainly dramatically increases the chance you get a player that substantially outperforms their draft slot. Again , I take impact/elite over that , but if the Jets draft where they feel their pick is past that line they have established as determining that , then moving down for assets is possible , imo.


Last edited by jetkarma: 02-07-2013 at 01:33 PM.
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02-07-2013, 01:34 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkPatton View Post
Deadline is April 3rd I believe.

They'll likely hold onto Hainsey through the deadline and let him go in the offseason. There is no reason to resign him. Focus on signing Bogosian (pending RFA). We have Enstrom, Buff, Stuart, Bogo (assuming he resigns) and then spots for Redmond and Postma next year. Let Clitsome go at the deadline, might get a 3rd rounder or something for him. Hainsey will likely play out the year here and be gone next year assuming Redmond and Postma look good enough by the end of this season that management is comfortable keeping them in the lineup next season.

Antropov is likely gone in the offseason but not at the deadline, they need to try and make room for Scheifele to crack the line up next year in a role that isn't going to just be a 10 MPG. Wellwood will likely be gone, he has found himself a healthy scratch a couple of times, he is smart but he is tiny and kinda useless. We should assume Mittens is gone too. If he is healthy at the deadline, he might get traded.... if not he will likely go to free agency in the summer.

Most of the deadline activity will depend on what shape we are in the standings. If we are likely to miss the playoffs, then Hainsey would likely be traded as well as Antropov. But if there is a playoff push to be made, those two will stick around. They are the players we could get the most in return, but would not get their value in return because they are both pending UFAs. They are worth more in the lineup if we are to make a playoff push then anything we would get in return.
That'd be a very poor decision imo. If you have no intention of retaining him ship him off. Defencemen are at a premium. We could probably get a decent pick from him. The Maple Leafs somehow scored a first rounder for Kaberle a few seasons back.

With that said, I think we shoudl try retaining him for the right price.

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02-07-2013, 01:40 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by GermanJetsFan View Post
Either way, it's pretty safe to say that the odds go down dramatically after picking in the top 10 to get an impact player that turns out to be a NHL regular. That's the reason why I'm never a fan of trading down from inside the top 10 to outside the top 10 and a pick between 7-10 is the most likeliest scenario IMO. I'm pretty sure we're not bad enough for a top 5 pick but also not good enough for a Playoff-spot pick. IF we move, I want us to move up for our 1st and one of our 2nd draft round picks. But that's probably not needed in this years draft.
Actually this is sort of a common misconception.

I looked at a 10 draft stretch and the biggest drop off wasn't from 10-11, but actually from 5-6.

i posted it a while back here:
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1298875

Now, obviously every draft is different. The depth is different, where that depth lies, and where/how big the drop offs in talent are varies from year to year, but on average if you look at it in blocks, the bigges drop off in talent is difference between a 1-5 pick, and 6-10 pick. You go from 84% in 1-5 to 42% in 6-10. Furthermore, that 42% is the same figure you get from 11-15.

So in an AVERAGE/HYPOTHETICAL year , if your picking in the 6-10 (especially 7-10 as 6 is stillq uite high) unless you have "your guy" available and your worried he wont "slip", it is, in theory, a very good idea to trade back as the base success rate doesn't really change from 7-15.

Obviously this can't be taken as gospel, especially in a year like this where the big drop off in talent appears to be at round pick 7 or 9, but it does illustrate the point- a pick in the 7-10 range more often then not is not worth the value we as fans often place on it.

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02-07-2013, 03:01 PM
  #63
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I am a bit on the fence here with this group as a whole *if* they do not make the playoffs this season. Perhaps it revolves around just how close they come, and what strides we see taken as this season plays out, but to me I don't see much point in bringing back players on expiring contracts (who aren't considered core or key young pieces) to a team that as a group, haven't made the playoffs. This speaking as if this team doesn't make it this season. I do think we can do it, though.

What is the point in bringing back Antropov, Ponikarovsky, Hainsey, Wellwood, etc.. if this team really shows no more progress and steps forward than they did last season. I do like some of these players and pieces, Antropov, Ponikarovsky, Hainsey, but how repetitive do we get here in continuing on with relatively the same group if they're not progressing?

To me, last years team and this years team although different, are still much a like. So if we don't make some serious strides forward I will be quite hesitant in returning again next season with pretty well the exact same group.

We'll see how it plays out, of course. I'm just not sure I would be a fan of heading into next season (year 3) with relatively the same team as this year as well as 2011-2012, if collectively those teams didn't succeed or show enough progression to keep them together. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
I think this is a very fair point. But I think you have to consider one thing first. As the youth continues to mature, we won't have to rely on these guys to play too many minutes. With Burmi's progression Antro won't have to be our outright #2 center. With Postma and Redmond improving Hains won't have to long too many minutes in all key situations.

The youth is slowly catching up to us and will allow us more depth and spread out ice time more among guys.

One thing that would worry me, assuming we're borderline at the deadline, is if we move Hains. That's a flexible guy that can play some tough minutes in a lot of situations. Obviously we don't want to have to rely on him as much as we have, but he would be a very good #4-5 D-man on a competitive team.

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