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Leafs 3 Jets 2. Pavelec fails again.

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Old
02-08-2013, 01:29 PM
  #326
Gump Hasek
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Again, to be disappointed in the end result when the team is missing 2 of their top 3 d-men speaks more to unrealistic expectations than to anything else. Not saying that Buff & Bogo will save the team but rather that they provide the depth that is both lacking at the moment and was probably the difference in the game last night.

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02-08-2013, 01:29 PM
  #327
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ps - sold my tix for last night, but heard there were lots of fights in stands after the game? this true??
Was actually pretty civil in my section and nearby. Lots of Leafs fans, but they were pretty well behaved.

Did hear about one incident through a friend of a friend, some Leaf fan who tried to bullrush a security guard after getting into a fight on the concourse. Hope he enjoyed his night in the drunk tank.

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02-08-2013, 01:34 PM
  #328
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Didn't see the game last night but followed the score online so pretty disappointing to see the end result. I can tolerate losses to most teams just not the Leafs. I hate losing to the Leafs. Probably not rational but it's the way it is.

Looking forward to Buff/Bogo returning as it should help an awful lot. Really digging Redmond's play for the most part as I think that's going to take us to three very solid defensive pairings when the B's return.

Frustrated by Pavs no doubt but I gotta think this is the case of a goalie coming into the season out of shape. Never mind heaping the crap on Buff for eating too much at times (though noting not this off-season it would seem) it looks like Pavs needs a baby sitter in the off-season to stay in shape. Couple that with goalies being notoriously flaky and a rough start to the season and Pavs is probably seeing nothing when on good days he saw beach balls. The confidence with him has to be shot at the moment and it's going to be tough to get back. I'd agree we overpaid in the off-season but I'd also like to know what the other options realistically available to us were? Clearly his agent didn't play straight up with reality so yeah, I think we got taken a bit. But when the D returns and if Pavs can regain some confidence then I think he'll right the ship to a degree.

Not loving the power play, relative success rate or not. When Buff comes back I fear it's still going to be transparent, at least on the first unit, and that's a problem. Someone earlier mentioned pass three times and shoot instead of all the cycling of the puck. Gotta agree with that, but I'm still damaged from playoff games with Jets 1.0 back in the day and yelling "shoot the effing puck!". It's deja vu all over again right now. Put the puck in front of the net. Please.

And while we're at it, put a body in front of the net. That's been a gripe I've had since the Jets came back. Antropov frustrates the hell out of me by not getting in front of the net given his bulk but I've come to understand (and to appreciate) that's not really his game. But it's an area I think the Jets either need to develop internally with a big body or go out and get that pest that just parks in front of the net. I think that guy ends up being the guy in your own end that also clears everything out in front of your goalie as well, something I don't observe the Jets to do well either. I think Buff would do a great job at that but understand why we won't move him to the wing and completely agree with it, so we need that big body in front and I just don't see anyone on the team that is going to do it. Is Scott Stevens available?

Chemistry amongst the forwards is sucking hard right now and the pucks don't seem to be going in. I'm loving Burmistrov handling the puck but otherwise not enough patience while holding the puck amongst the rest. I'm guessing it's part of the game plan from the coaching but I'm really not feeling it at the moment. I think we have too many dump and run guys doing the same thing all the time. Maybe some bad luck in there but not enough possession.

Going forward, I'm not all that panicky about the next games. I think we do lose in Ottawa but coming home I think we'll actually be alright with Philly, Pittsburgh and Boston (2-1). Part of it is home games, part of it is getting up for better teams (this team plays to the level of the opposition way, way too much - great with good teams, lousy with lesser teams), part of it is Buff and hopefully Bogo both being back. Rest of February doesn't scare me all that much either, even on the road. Buffalo, Carolina, Philly, Jersey and Rangers? I think we go 2-3 in that bunch.

Couldn't post last night, too depressed. Looking at it more objectively, I'm hopeful (possibly naive, possibly stupid, possibly just a homer).

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02-08-2013, 01:36 PM
  #329
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Originally Posted by Resurrection View Post
People have called me out for this thread title. I'll simply re-direct the question back to them... do you not expect your goaltender who's making elite level top dollar to shut the door and maintain a 3rd period lead with less than 10 mins left? This is now the 2nd loss in a row where Pavelec has allowed 3 leads to evaporate in the last period of play. Some, not all posters here are talking like the Jets are allowing 15 breakaways a game which is laughable. This is the NHL folks: 15 shots against is a defensive performance that is worthy of a W. But it's the NHL as I said, sometimes the other team will get good chances. If you pay your #1 man over 5 million a year to be the man you are expecting him to make those saves. Not only that you're allocating money away from the forward skaters and defence. With this balogne goaltending we're not only losing games but not having free cap space to sign a difference maker to play on D or play alongside Kane.

Is this loss on Pavs if you look at this game with a microscope? No. It's s shared loss. But within the context of this season and his below mediocre goaltending it's time to shed some light on this guy and how bad he's been for the Jets.
No human being stops the Kessell shot. Nobody. When you let an elite sniper get a shot off from the slot with nobody challenging him, and he puts it exactly where he wants to with a sick release, it's going to be a goal.

You can't give up that opportunity and expect anything else.

If Patrick Roy in his prime was in goal and the Leafs had five shots all game and they were all Kessell, unchallenged, going bar down from the slot, he'd have a save percentage of 0. That's a fact that you and others need to absorb.

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02-08-2013, 01:42 PM
  #330
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Originally Posted by Jet View Post
Really? Did you feel at any moment that this Jets forward group was dangerous and was going to score? It's fine and well to cycle the damned puck but you have to make plays at the friggin net.

The forwards are the number 1 reason we lost this game.
I think you can throw some blame at Poni for the penalty and Ladd for the turnover and line change that turned into the game winner, but I thought the top 6 forwards looked great last night. The Burmi line controlled possession and the Jets outshot the Leafs 9-5 with him on the ice.

The Olli line was good too. Sure they were a -1, but the Jets out shot the Leafs 14-1 while Kane was on the ice. The forwards did their jobs. They out played the opposition and tried to score. Sometimes they just don't go it.

The Jets dominated most of that game and should have won. I don't really get crapping on anybody after a good game. The loss was unfortunate, but it is what it is.

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02-08-2013, 01:43 PM
  #331
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Pavelec
Honestly not that bad... I'd say 2/3 goals weren't really on him. You want your goalie to make those saves every once-in-a-while (which he hasn't) but you can't expect your goalie to make those saves. Yes, this is coming from one of the harshest Pavelec critics on this board. Honestly Pavelec has played great in some games this season (BOS, WSH, PIT) and out-right terrible in others (OTT, MTL, FLOx2, TBL). This was really middle in the road; sometimes you aren't going to get good bounces. Basically what I'm saying is most of the excuses people used on me to defend Pavelec against me actually apply to this game (for once). I don't really blame D much either (get into later).
I'll say it one more time in bold: Pavelec has had some piss-poor games but last night wasn't one of them

Side note:
No more of this defensive game improves goalies stuff... Tippet and Hitchcock are known for being the best defensive coaches and are praised for their ability to improve goalies... Guess what.. They've improved goalies only by 0.004 sv% (Hitchcock) and 0.006 sv% (Tippet)... That's about 5-6 goals against a season for a starter. SV% is almost exclusively on the goalie when looking at a large enough spread (10+ random games I'd say is safe)

Kane-Jokinen-Wheeler
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSh%TeamSv%
Kane 1.23 1.64 7.06 .829
Jokinen -0.87 0.43 6.33 .836
Wheeler -0.87 2.61 8.45 .794
Those guys couldn't buy a goal last night and sounds like Noel will break them up, too bad because this was the first time since Washington that this line actually sustained pressure on the other team and out-chanced their opponents in dominate fashion (Fenwick Kane +13, Joki +9, Wheeler +12). 13 SOG from this line last night. For those that think this line isn't scoring enough, realize that Kane and Wheeler are scoring at somewhat regular paces for their ice-time as you'd both want and expect (Kane a little under and Wheeler a little over). Unfortunately Jokinen can't say the same as his 0.43 points per 60 mins at even strength is about 1/3 of his usual looking at the last two seasons, but the Jets' have only scored on 6% of shots while he's on the ice which is lower than you'd expect or normal so puck luck may have a play with that. Their poor +/- aren't very indicative of their play as they've had some of the leagues worst goaltending behind them with Pavelec/Montoya having some terrible sv%... seriously, looking at guys who played 8+ games Wheeler is 3rd, Kane is 12th, Jokinen is 18th and Enstrom is 27th for worse goaltending behind them. While I don't feel that we can blame last game's loss on the goalies, the Jets' poor play in the last 5 games before that I will and I think that stat shows something.

Ladd-Burmistrov-Little
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSh%TeamSv%
Ladd 8.21 2.05 10.13 .909
Little 2.10 1.68 9.72 .932
Burmistrov 13.12 0.91 6.78 .943
OK possession game while facing against the top lines (Fenwick Ladd +0, Burmistrov +4, Little +2) but not as good as normal. Only 3 SOG but at least Ladd's tip turned into a goal. Ladd is on an improved scoring pace from last season, as is Little. Burmistrov's scoring has gone down, even though he is producing more chances and quality shots than last season; just like Jokinen, Jets' only score on 6-7% of shots when he's on the ice and is due some more points. Maybe a swap in centres between the two lines could ignite the two, although - as previously noted by Sweech - part of it could be system as Noel's 5v5 style does suppress 5v5 C scoring. I could see some value with that if Noel wants a shake up, since Burmistrov brings a lot more possession to Kane and Wheeler and Ladd-Little could spark Jokinen.

Ponikarovsky-Antropov-Wellwood
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSh%TeamSv%
Ponikarovsky 2.13 0.53 4.65 .956
Antropov -0.93 0.93 5.88 .925
Wellwood 15.59 0.65 7.14 .943
Not a great game for these guys, although they started off well from my eyes but then fell (Fenwick Wellwood -2, Ponikarovsky -3, Antropov -3). Bad penalty from Ponikarovsky too, with him and Thorburn being the only two Jets' who have taken more penalties than they've drawn. Ponikarovsky also missed the net 3 times, as all three of these guys can't seem to buy any points especially Poni + Antro. Kind of the opposite of Pavelec, where usually these guys have played well but luck hasn't gone their way but this game was bad.

Wright-Slater-Thorburn
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSh%TeamSv%
Wright -3.0 0.00 0.00 .923
Slater -10.19 1.46 10.34 .941
Thorburn -15.87 0.84 3.57 .941
Meh... It's a 4th line, they rarely own possession and last night wasn't much different (Fenwick Wright -2, Slater -1, Thorburn -3). Thankfully they've been not as bad as GST, although more for the lack of tough match-ups then talent shift.

Enstrom-Hainsey
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSv%
Enstrom -4.58 1.96 .852
Hainsey -15.62 0.34 .934
Last night wasn't too bad for these guys (Fenwick Enstrom +1, Hainsey +3). I feel bad for both as they are constantly being shelled as Noel tries to shelter the other 4 defensemen. I feel bad for Enstrom as he's paired with a guy being asked to do more than he should, and I feel bad for Hainsey because he's being asked to do more than he should. The one nice note is Enstrom is scoring at 5v5 at a pace for an average 1st line forward... haha

Stuart-Redmond
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSv%
Redmond 6.67 0.89 .875
Stuart -0.00 0.37 .931
Overall great game for this line (Fenwick Stuart +5, Redmond +6). I think Redmond and Postma will probably split time being #6 on Stuart's side once everyone is healthy. This success of them on the second pair indicates that this will be a nice pair to have on a little more sheltered 3rd pair. If anything, these games are indications that we should be feeling pretty good about our D core AFTER Bogosian and Byfuglien return.

Clitsome-Postma
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSv%
Postma 17.51 1.42 .895
Clitsome 8.68 1.02 .894
Postma had a few errors in that game and the pair didn't do that well for the amount of sheltering they received (Fenwick Postma +2, Clitsome +1). I don't really get too angry at Postma and Redmond make rookie mistakes, as they are rookies and should be expected to play as such (and evaluated as such), but nobody gets a free ride. So far Clitsome (who had a decent game yesterday, not exceptional, but decent) has been the weaker of the 3 fighting for the #6 once Bogosian and Byfuglien return.

Summary and Future
It's been a comedy of errors. Our D-core has been decimated to a crippling point. Our goalies have been extremely sub-par (except Pavelec's three strong games (BOS, WSH, PIT) and one average game (TOR)). If you remove special teams and goalie sv% we've been a lower end playoff team, which is both negative and positive thought. It's negative because the PP seems to just be ridiculously sad in how inept it is; they can't gain simple zone entry, sustain pressure, or get enough shots on the net that we should expect our PP to be successful longterm (some say hey it's normally this good % wise so won't drop, realize the shots and zone entry weren't this bad those times... I don't think it will stay like that though with Buff/Bogo return). It's positive because the PK hasn't actually been as bad as the results (almost equally opposite as the PP hasn't been nearly as good as the results) as there have been very few shots against and even less quality shots against, but negative factor of goaltending appears here. It's negative because our goaltending may not improve, although I'm of the mindset that as much as I don't think of Pavelec as average-or-above-average goalie he can't be this bad... And finally, it's positive because we're missing two very important pieces who do a lot of heavy lifting for this team in Byfuglien and Bogosian, and realistically we cannot be worse with them than without them.


<EDIT> Bonus Extra, Bad Luck Unsustainable
IMHO:
*There's no way Pavelec can sustainably be as bad as he was in his poor games (OTT, MTL, FLOx2, TBL)
*There's no way the PK can sustainably stay as bad as it has been with the current ability to repress shots and shot quality that it has been (and that poor PK SV% has to come up eventually)
*There's no way Jokinen, Burmistrov, Ponikarovsky, Wellwood, and Antropov can continue to create so many scoring chances with so few point
*There's no way that adding Bogosian and Byfuglien into the current mix wouldn't substantially improve things


Last edited by garret9: 02-08-2013 at 02:17 PM.
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Old
02-08-2013, 01:45 PM
  #332
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Aside from the Postma boo boo. You can ask a team to do much more defensively. They allowed 17 shots on goal. Pav isn't the only goalie that is asked to make a few tough saves a game. I don't think he was terrible last night, but he has been pretty awful this year and I think the defense has been okay.
Yea I agree with this post and 100% agree with the bolded part.

Pavs save % so far this season is not good enough. We are a bubble playoff team at best and without average goaltending we have next to zero shot IMHO. I know this is a team game but the goalie position is that one critical place where an individual can make or break a team.... not just ours.

He is not the only guy that is playing below average so far this season but he is the most important impactful guy that is struggling.

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02-08-2013, 01:57 PM
  #333
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I'm actually pretty curious how other team's would do with two of their top three d-men out. I think it may be worse for us because there is such a gap between our third best (take your pick between Toby, Buff and Bogosian) and our fourth. But still, having two top d-men out would probably hurt any team.
I thought this was interesting. So i just looked at the 10 top teams in the league right now, and removed the middle two of the top 4 TOI defencemen.

These D cores look pretty terrible- We really should understand how short of a stick we have drawn right now....

In no particular order they are:

Anaheim
Beauchemin fowler
allen sbisa

Boston:
Chara hamilton
ference Johnson

Chicago:
keith, Hjalmarsson
Leddy Rozsival

Montreal:
Markov Bouillon
Emelin Diaz (assuming PK as one of the removed)

nashville:
Weber Klein
Ellis Gill

NJD:
Salvador zidlicky
Larsson Volchenkov

OTT:
Karlsson Philips
Lundin Benoit

PIT:
Martin Niskanen
Despres Engelland

SJS:
BOYL Braun
Irwin Demers

VAN:
Edler Garrison
Ballard Tanev



Pretty gross...

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02-08-2013, 01:57 PM
  #334
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Excellent work garret9.

It sure is nice to see those stats right after the game.

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02-08-2013, 01:58 PM
  #335
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Anyone see this article?

From what I can make out, the Jets are good at keeping shots at a distance greater than 15 feet (only allowing 24 shots within 15 feet). Pav's save percentage within those 15 feet is .750 which is pretty damn horrible. In contrast, Price has faced 44 shots within 15 feet and has a save percentage of .902.

The Jets D has been doing well keeping those shots to the outside, yet Pavelec has a tough time giving us the big saves in close. I don't think Pav's lousy start to the season is 100% weighted on our defense as many have suggested.

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02-08-2013, 02:02 PM
  #336
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...
I agree most of that. Great post.

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02-08-2013, 02:04 PM
  #337
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Excellent work garret9.
Agreed.

Always appreciate your analysis garret9, it's a perspective I never grow tired of reading.

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02-08-2013, 02:06 PM
  #338
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I agree most of that. Great post.
...and how!

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02-08-2013, 02:26 PM
  #339
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The numbers are certainly interesting and worth the read, however, if I had to name the top 3 reasons for the loss, these are them:
1. an atrocious Jets PP
2. Frattin's goal not automatically being reviewed for goalie interference. This is where Coaches should be allowed 1 challenge per game.
3. Poni's severe brain cramp.

Hopefully, Buf & Bogo return soon to bring some stability and confidence back into the team.

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02-08-2013, 02:43 PM
  #340
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ps - sold my tix for last night, but heard there were lots of fights in stands after the game? this true??
Couple fights around me

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02-08-2013, 02:46 PM
  #341
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I think you can throw some blame at Poni for the penalty and Ladd for the turnover and line change that turned into the game winner, but I thought the top 6 forwards looked great last night. The Burmi line controlled possession and the Jets outshot the Leafs 9-5 with him on the ice.

The Olli line was good too. Sure they were a -1, but the Jets out shot the Leafs 14-1 while Kane was on the ice. The forwards did their jobs. They out played the opposition and tried to score. Sometimes they just don't go it.

The Jets dominated most of that game and should have won. I don't really get crapping on anybody after a good game. The loss was unfortunate, but it is what it is.
Any game where the top six account for zero goals is not a great night by them.
The Kane line outshot the other team dramatically, fantastic. Too bad shots are not goals and the line was throwing lame duck shots at Reimer all night. I don't think Kane had a single shot that was even remotely challenging. The Jets did not have a single opportunity by the forwards that was as good as the ones that allowed the Leafs to score.

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02-08-2013, 02:47 PM
  #342
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Originally Posted by Ulf Hullberg View Post
The numbers are certainly interesting and worth the read, however, if I had to name the top 3 reasons for the loss, these are them:
1. an atrocious Jets PP
2. Frattin's goal not automatically being reviewed for goalie interference. This is where Coaches should be allowed 1 challenge per game.
3. Poni's severe brain cramp.

Hopefully, Buf & Bogo return soon to bring some stability and confidence back into the team.
Agreed.

Bringing Buff back should help prevent the team from going into that defensive shell too. He always want to score. Kane and others do too, but Buff forces the play up the ice by pinching.

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02-08-2013, 02:51 PM
  #343
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Pavelec
Honestly not that bad... I'd say 2/3 goals weren't really on him. You want your goalie to make those saves every once-in-a-while (which he hasn't) but you can't expect your goalie to make those saves. Yes, this is coming from one of the harshest Pavelec critics on this board. Honestly Pavelec has played great in some games this season (BOS, WSH, PIT) and out-right terrible in others (OTT, MTL, FLOx2, TBL). This was really middle in the road; sometimes you aren't going to get good bounces. Basically what I'm saying is most of the excuses people used on me to defend Pavelec against me actually apply to this game (for once). I don't really blame D much either (get into later).
I'll say it one more time in bold: Pavelec has had some piss-poor games but last night wasn't one of them

Side note:
No more of this defensive game improves goalies stuff... Tippet and Hitchcock are known for being the best defensive coaches and are praised for their ability to improve goalies... Guess what.. They've improved goalies only by 0.004 sv% (Hitchcock) and 0.006 sv% (Tippet)... That's about 5-6 goals against a season for a starter. SV% is almost exclusively on the goalie when looking at a large enough spread (10+ random games I'd say is safe)

Kane-Jokinen-Wheeler
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSh%TeamSv%
Kane 1.23 1.64 7.06 .829
Jokinen -0.87 0.43 6.33 .836
Wheeler -0.87 2.61 8.45 .794
Those guys couldn't buy a goal last night and sounds like Noel will break them up, too bad because this was the first time since Washington that this line actually sustained pressure on the other team and out-chanced their opponents in dominate fashion (Fenwick Kane +13, Joki +9, Wheeler +12). 13 SOG from this line last night. For those that think this line isn't scoring enough, realize that Kane and Wheeler are scoring at somewhat regular paces for their ice-time as you'd both want and expect (Kane a little under and Wheeler a little over). Unfortunately Jokinen can't say the same as his 0.43 points per 60 mins at even strength is about 1/3 of his usual looking at the last two seasons, but the Jets' have only scored on 6% of shots while he's on the ice which is lower than you'd expect or normal so puck luck may have a play with that. Their poor +/- aren't very indicative of their play as they've had some of the leagues worst goaltending behind them with Pavelec/Montoya having some terrible sv%... seriously, looking at guys who played 8+ games Wheeler is 3rd, Kane is 12th, Jokinen is 18th and Enstrom is 27th for worse goaltending behind them. While I don't feel that we can blame last game's loss on the goalies, the Jets' poor play in the last 5 games before that I will and I think that stat shows something.

Ladd-Burmistrov-Little
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSh%TeamSv%
Ladd 8.21 2.05 10.13 .909
Little 2.10 1.68 9.72 .932
Burmistrov 13.12 0.91 6.78 .943
OK possession game while facing against the top lines (Fenwick Ladd +0, Burmistrov +4, Little +2) but not as good as normal. Only 3 SOG but at least Ladd's tip turned into a goal. Ladd is on an improved scoring pace from last season, as is Little. Burmistrov's scoring has gone down, even though he is producing more chances and quality shots than last season; just like Jokinen, Jets' only score on 6-7% of shots when he's on the ice and is due some more points. Maybe a swap in centres between the two lines could ignite the two, although - as previously noted by Sweech - part of it could be system as Noel's 5v5 style does suppress 5v5 C scoring. I could see some value with that if Noel wants a shake up, since Burmistrov brings a lot more possession to Kane and Wheeler and Ladd-Little could spark Jokinen.

Ponikarovsky-Antropov-Wellwood
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSh%TeamSv%
Ponikarovsky 2.13 0.53 4.65 .956
Antropov -0.93 0.93 5.88 .925
Wellwood 15.59 0.65 7.14 .943
Not a great game for these guys, although they started off well from my eyes but then fell (Fenwick Wellwood -2, Ponikarovsky -3, Antropov -3). Bad penalty from Ponikarovsky too, with him and Thorburn being the only two Jets' who have taken more penalties than they've drawn. Ponikarovsky also missed the net 3 times, as all three of these guys can't seem to buy any points especially Poni + Antro. Kind of the opposite of Pavelec, where usually these guys have played well but luck hasn't gone their way but this game was bad.

Wright-Slater-Thorburn
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSh%TeamSv%
Wright -3.0 0.00 0.00 .923
Slater -10.19 1.46 10.34 .941
Thorburn -15.87 0.84 3.57 .941
Meh... It's a 4th line, they rarely own possession and last night wasn't much different (Fenwick Wright -2, Slater -1, Thorburn -3). Thankfully they've been not as bad as GST, although more for the lack of tough match-ups then talent shift.

Enstrom-Hainsey
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSv%
Enstrom -4.58 1.96 .852
Hainsey -15.62 0.34 .934
Last night wasn't too bad for these guys (Fenwick Enstrom +1, Hainsey +3). I feel bad for both as they are constantly being shelled as Noel tries to shelter the other 4 defensemen. I feel bad for Enstrom as he's paired with a guy being asked to do more than he should, and I feel bad for Hainsey because he's being asked to do more than he should. The one nice note is Enstrom is scoring at 5v5 at a pace for an average 1st line forward... haha

Stuart-Redmond
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSv%
Redmond 6.67 0.89 .875
Stuart -0.00 0.37 .931
Overall great game for this line (Fenwick Stuart +5, Redmond +6). I think Redmond and Postma will probably split time being #6 on Stuart's side once everyone is healthy. This success of them on the second pair indicates that this will be a nice pair to have on a little more sheltered 3rd pair. If anything, these games are indications that we should be feeling pretty good about our D core AFTER Bogosian and Byfuglien return.

Clitsome-Postma
NAMECorsiP/60TeamSv%
Postma 17.51 1.42 .895
Clitsome 8.68 1.02 .894
Postma had a few errors in that game and the pair didn't do that well for the amount of sheltering they received (Fenwick Postma +2, Clitsome +1). I don't really get too angry at Postma and Redmond make rookie mistakes, as they are rookies and should be expected to play as such (and evaluated as such), but nobody gets a free ride. So far Clitsome (who had a decent game yesterday, not exceptional, but decent) has been the weaker of the 3 fighting for the #6 once Bogosian and Byfuglien return.

Summary and Future
It's been a comedy of errors. Our D-core has been decimated to a crippling point. Our goalies have been extremely sub-par (except Pavelec's three strong games (BOS, WSH, PIT) and one average game (TOR)). If you remove special teams and goalie sv% we've been a lower end playoff team, which is both negative and positive thought. It's negative because the PP seems to just be ridiculously sad in how inept it is; they can't gain simple zone entry, sustain pressure, or get enough shots on the net that we should expect our PP to be successful longterm (some say hey it's normally this good % wise so won't drop, realize the shots and zone entry weren't this bad those times... I don't think it will stay like that though with Buff/Bogo return). It's positive because the PK hasn't actually been as bad as the results (almost equally opposite as the PP hasn't been nearly as good as the results) as there have been very few shots against and even less quality shots against, but negative factor of goaltending appears here. It's negative because our goaltending may not improve, although I'm of the mindset that as much as I don't think of Pavelec as average-or-above-average goalie he can't be this bad... And finally, it's positive because we're missing two very important pieces who do a lot of heavy lifting for this team in Byfuglien and Bogosian, and realistically we cannot be worse with them than without them.


<EDIT> Bonus Extra, Bad Luck Unsustainable
IMHO:
*There's no way Pavelec can sustainably be as bad as he was in his poor games (OTT, MTL, FLOx2, TBL)
*There's no way the PK can sustainably stay as bad as it has been with the current ability to repress shots and shot quality that it has been (and that poor PK SV% has to come up eventually)
*There's no way Jokinen, Burmistrov, Ponikarovsky, Wellwood, and Antropov can continue to create so many scoring chances with so few point
*There's no way that adding Bogosian and Byfuglien into the current mix wouldn't substantially improve things
How do you explain Elliott then? The guy went from a sub .900 sv% to .940. That's alot.

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02-08-2013, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
How do you explain Elliott then? The guy went from a sub .900 sv% to .940. That's alot.
Fluctuation/luck? The point is, no goaly has experienced a boost like that, and sustain it.

EDIT: for example, this year he's down to .864 right now.

no goalies experienced a sustained increase like that. And alot of goalies have put up one great year only to crash back down to earth with the same coaching staff/system.

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02-08-2013, 02:54 PM
  #345
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Anyone else getting a little tired of coach Noel's BS??? PK and PP are SOOOOO bad it's embarrassing

I'd love to see a hard nosed coach take over the team... Bylsma, Quenneville type (and yes I know, these coaches are not available). Every time I hear Noel speak its the same garbage... we need to be better blah blah blah. Well, get better!

Stop messing with the lines after every period; let the guys at least try and gain some chemistry together

On the Pavs discussion... its scary how bad our goaltending is this year. Sure, last nights goals were not all his fault, but he was juggling almost every shot that he did save.

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02-08-2013, 02:56 PM
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Look at the play of our centers .... hard to be a winning team with play like this , imo.

Not the only reason mind , you but an important aspect .

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02-08-2013, 02:57 PM
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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
How do you explain Elliott then? The guy went from a sub .900 sv% to .940. That's alot.
Luck and natural variance of life... Players can have crazy good/bad sh% luck for one year (ex: Fehr/Nino bad last season, Wellwood good last season, Little 30 goal year), why not goalies too...
If it was coaching it be more than one year and more than one goalie...

Someone else has already broken both those coaches down... click the links to see:
Tippett
Hitchcock


Quote:
Originally Posted by jetkarma View Post
Look at the play of our centers .... hard to be a winning team with play like this , imo.

Not the only reason mind , you but an important aspect .
I agree that the play of our centres isn't nearly of equal level as our wingers, but some (key word some) has to be poor luck. Neither of our top3 centres ever have had that low of scoring rates... plus the onicesh% is pretty indicative...

BUT even if you fix that, our centres are quite to the par that one would want.


Last edited by garret9: 02-08-2013 at 03:02 PM.
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02-08-2013, 03:02 PM
  #348
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrokerD View Post
Anyone else getting a little tired of coach Noel's BS??? PK and PP are SOOOOO bad it's embarrassing

I'd love to see a hard nosed coach take over the team... Bylsma, Quenneville type (and yes I know, these coaches are not available). Every time I hear Noel speak its the same garbage... we need to be better blah blah blah. Well, get better!

Stop messing with the lines after every period; let the guys at least try and gain some chemistry together

On the Pavs discussion... its scary how bad our goaltending is this year. Sure, last nights goals were not all his fault, but he was juggling almost every shot that he did save.
Are you sure you're not talking about Reimer. The kid should have put a blocker on his catching hand.

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02-08-2013, 03:19 PM
  #349
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Luck and natural variance of life... Players can have crazy good/bad sh% luck for one year (ex: Fehr/Nino bad last season, Wellwood good last season, Little 30 goal year), why not goalies too...
If it was coaching it be more than one year and more than one goalie...

Someone else has already broken both those coaches down... click the links to see:
Tippett
Hitchcock
I want to see those studies re-done next year.

I fully expect Bryz to rebound (which is why I took him in the AIH fantasy league), while Clemmy, Theodore and Elliot fall hard back to earth.

It has begun that way and it will continue.

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02-08-2013, 03:21 PM
  #350
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Why all the whining about the power play BTW?

It is ranked 12th in the league at 21.4%.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm...ewName=summary

The PP isn't the problem; having an AHL-level D when minus Buff and Bogo is the problem.
I think people expect the powerplay to score every time it's on the ice.

I wish our entries were smarter and we scored a couple of timely ones on the PP, but it is the very least of this teams worries. I thought hiring on a sports psychologist was going to help this team but it certainly hasn't yet.

This team needs killer instinct. Its great to dominate play but it means nothing if you don't score. Going into a shell when you have a lead has resulted in countless losses for this team since they came to Winnipeg.

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