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Noel shuffling the lines

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Old
02-08-2013, 05:19 PM
  #1
cjenn048
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Noel shuffling the lines

"I've got the one line that's minus all over the place and so you've got to make changes. You just can't sit back and watch this, you've got to (start) juggling this thing around."

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=415555

with this in mind, I would like to draw attention to very good hockey stats that do not get the attention they deserve.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...2+53+54+55+56#

this seems complex at first glance, but it isnt too hard to make sense of it. This is a very incredible set of data. the most relevant are the Corsi numbers. this number represents the shot differential that would occur if a player played all 60 min of a game (using the averages of all previous games in the season).

let me point out the ones i think are most relevant

PAULPOSTMA leads with 17.51. that means that when he is on the ice, the jets average 17.51 more shots than the opponents, or some result similar to a shot total of 37 to 20 for the jets. very impressive, although of course this wouldnt happen in reality, these numbers are very revealing. Postma does not get enough credit for his play. he does however benefit from the weakest quality of competition on the team. therefore i would not recommend an increase of ice time for him. he is doing very well as a third pairing though.

KYLEWELLWOOD is second with 15.59. this seems surprising for a player with a near phobia for taking a shot on goal, but actually he routinely dominates this category and shared last year's team lead with Andrew Ladd. by far the fewest shots go against the team when he is on the ice. this is mainly due to a sheer dominance in puck possession when he is on the ice, despite stong quality of competition numbers. what may look like a player floating around lazily is actually a player in perfect position. many people make the error of underrating welly because of size and speed deficiencies, but his IQ and skill make up for it. you will likely see wellwood as the benefactor of our impending lineup change as every statistical category besides points are strongly in his favour

ALEXANDERBURMISTROV is third with 13.12. he has built on last season and has maintained a high level of play. i dont think there is a misconception as Jets Nation pretty much seems to agree that Burmi is gold. he is behind only wellwood in shots and chances against the team when he is on the ice per 60 minutes. very useful player who should retain top 6 minutes.

GRANTCLITSOME 4th with 8.68. He has the same thing as Postma going on here. he is doing well, but benefits from weaker opponents.

ANDREWLADD is 5th 8.21. this is also unsurprising. he is our captain and usually brings a strong game to the table. he is in familiar territory here as a force on the ice and very few liabilities in his game. this should not surprise jets Nation

Ponikarovski, Little and Kane round out the remaining positive players on the team with Corsi numbers 2.13, 2.10, 1.23 respectively.

The only players on the jets with significantly bad statistics in this category are Slater, Hainsey and Thorburn who have a role on this team, but overall are not the strongest players.

So with an impending shake up in the lines what do you expect to see? the current top six

Kane Wheeler Jokinen
Ladd Burmi Little

is a tough nut to crack with no glaring deficiencies. the answer for me is to adjust to a top nine that rolls with more or less equal ice time. our top line has been relied on too heavily and has failed. the team can only survive if scoring happens by committee and i would like to see hot hands getting a ride more often rather than forcing the top line to play in every offensive situation. my prediction is that wellwood gets the bump into the top six, but the ensuing lineup would necessitate a more equal share of ice time anyway. my guess for the specific change is less sure than the general dynamic, but ill take a stab

Ladd Little Jokinen
Wellwood Burmi Wheeler
Poni Antro Kane

the TSN article suggests that big changes are on the way. anyone else wanna take a stab at what Noel might do to the line combinations? This is a good opportunity to take a guess as changes appear to be right around the corner.

Also sorry for long post, but its my first and i tried to get the most out of it. haha

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Old
02-08-2013, 06:43 PM
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sully1410
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Dude have you been to this board? We are all about the stats.

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02-08-2013, 06:52 PM
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garret9
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Noel pretty much showed what he's likely shaking up in the practice they had today.

He did:
Kane-Jokinen-Antropov
Ladd-Little-Wheeler
Ponikarovsky-Burmistrov-Wellwood

Nice to see someone else use Gabe's site!
Regular posters Truck and I both work under the blog that Gabe started (Arctic Ice Hockey) and you'll see us use underlying numbers around here a lot.
If you click here I have a reference thread that I do team stats, but also do individual player stats if you look at the first post and click the names on the first post.
That said always keep usage in mind when looking at results.

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Old
02-08-2013, 07:06 PM
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Wpgpage
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Same sample size is effecting the numbers quite badly give it another 10 games and see what it looks like then. Will so a much better picture.

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02-08-2013, 07:09 PM
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I never disliked LLW, I just didn't like them being our number 1.

I actually think they could be a quite effective #2. So I hope they give this a fair shake.

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02-08-2013, 07:16 PM
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Just my thoughts...
I've been wondering how a line of Kane-Burmistrov-Little would be and maybe have something like
Ladd-Jokinen-Wheeler as the "first" line.

I'm not sure I like Wellwood with Burmistrov again, and I'm not sure about Antropov on the first line... But you never know.

I thought Miettinen was playing well at the end of last season, it's too bad he's injured because I think it would have been interesting to add him into the mix and see where he'd fit in here.

Anyways, hope whatever Noel decides on works

Go Jets

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02-08-2013, 09:04 PM
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spicy
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i wouldnt be surprised seeing

Ladd Little Wheeler
Kane Jokinen Burmi
Ponikarovski Antropov Wellwood
Wright Slater Thorburn

when Miettennen comes back, sit Wellwood. Top line from last year we know works, and the "second" line has speed, physicalness, passing ability, and 2 way play.

Or this would be interesting.

Ladd Jokinen Wheeler
Kane Little Burmistrov
Ponikarovski Antropov Wellwood
Wright Slater Thorburn

Keep Ladd and Wheeler together with a guy who drives the net a bit harder, and is a bit bigger than little, give Kane and Burmi some time together with a guy who can keep up with them in Little, and keep that *shudder* leaf line that somehow has chemistry together.

We just really need to see Buff and Bogo back. When that happens, we will see an improvement everywhere.

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02-08-2013, 09:11 PM
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surixon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bloodygoalie View Post
Just my thoughts...
I've been wondering how a line of Kane-Burmistrov-Little would be and maybe have something like
Ladd-Jokinen-Wheeler as the "first" line.

I'm not sure I like Wellwood with Burmistrov again, and I'm not sure about Antropov on the first line... But you never know.

I thought Miettinen was playing well at the end of last season, it's too bad he's injured because I think it would have been interesting to add him into the mix and see where he'd fit in here.

Anyways, hope whatever Noel decides on works

Go Jets
Well Kane and Burmie were tried at the end of last year and didn't really mesh that well. Whether they work this year I'm not sure but its worth a try.

Little dissapointed that Burmie's rane in the top 6 lasted only two games. People know my thoughts on this with regards to Noel and Veterans. Anyways here's Hoping for a win tomorrow.

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Old
02-08-2013, 10:19 PM
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Gnova
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I like Burmi in the 3rd line center spot.
He hasn't shown enough offense to play in the top two lines but still gets a lot of ice time due to PK.

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02-08-2013, 10:34 PM
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Whenever Noel gets desperate, Little Ladd and Wheeler play together. Personally, I'd swap Ladd and Ponikarovsky to balance the lines. I don't see Ponikarovsky-Burmistrov-Wellwood generating much or holding the puck in the offensive zone. Wellwood might be a good fit with Kane and Jokinen too, that savvy guy who can keep things headed in the right direction and enhance the skilled guys.

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02-08-2013, 10:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigZ65 View Post
Whenever Noel gets desperate, Little Ladd and Wheeler play together. Personally, I'd swap Ladd and Ponikarovsky to balance the lines. I don't see Ponikarovsky-Burmistrov-Wellwood generating much or holding the puck in the offensive zone. Wellwood might be a good fit with Kane and Jokinen too, that savvy guy who can keep things headed in the right direction and enhance the skilled guys.
As I have stated earlier, I think our third line should be Scheifele centering Ponikarovsky and Antropov. He is not going to benefit anything from going back to Barrie. Not sure why everyone thinks he has to be top six. Playing third line would have been no preasure on him to produce and he would of gained much more by playing third line here than going back to Barrie. I would also like to see Scheifele on our first line PP. At least he has some offensive creativity. Kane is useless on the PP. You need players you have some offensive creativity on the PP.

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02-08-2013, 10:50 PM
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Holden Caulfield
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jiho View Post
As I have stated earlier, I think our third line should be Scheifele centering Ponikarovsky and Antropov. He is not going to benefit anything from going back to Barrie. Not sure why everyone thinks he has to be top six. Playing third line would have been no preasure on him to produce and he would of gained much more by playing third line here than going back to Barrie. I would also like to see Scheifele on our first line PP. At least he has some offensive creativity. Kane is useless on the PP. You need players you have some offensive creativity on the PP.
That ship has sailed unfortunately. I agree with you, but he's back in Barrie for the year now.

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02-08-2013, 11:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jiho View Post
As I have stated earlier, I think our third line should be Scheifele centering Ponikarovsky and Antropov. He is not going to benefit anything from going back to Barrie. Not sure why everyone thinks he has to be top six. Playing third line would have been no preasure on him to produce and he would of gained much more by playing third line here than going back to Barrie. I would also like to see Scheifele on our first line PP. At least he has some offensive creativity. Kane is useless on the PP. You need players you have some offensive creativity on the PP.
Ultimately it isn't about what everybody thinks, it is about what Chevy thinks and Chevy sent him back. I would have been fine with whatever because there is no right or wrong answer.

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02-08-2013, 11:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cjenn048 View Post
"I've got the one line that's minus all over the place and so you've got to make changes. You just can't sit back and watch this, you've got to (start) juggling this thing around."

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=415555

with this in mind, I would like to draw attention to very good hockey stats that do not get the attention they deserve.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...2+53+54+55+56#

this seems complex at first glance, but it isnt too hard to make sense of it. This is a very incredible set of data. the most relevant are the Corsi numbers. this number represents the shot differential that would occur if a player played all 60 min of a game (using the averages of all previous games in the season).

let me point out the ones i think are most relevant

PAULPOSTMA leads with 17.51. that means that when he is on the ice, the jets average 17.51 more shots than the opponents, or some result similar to a shot total of 37 to 20 for the jets. very impressive, although of course this wouldnt happen in reality, these numbers are very revealing. Postma does not get enough credit for his play. he does however benefit from the weakest quality of competition on the team. therefore i would not recommend an increase of ice time for him. he is doing very well as a third pairing though.

KYLEWELLWOOD is second with 15.59. this seems surprising for a player with a near phobia for taking a shot on goal, but actually he routinely dominates this category and shared last year's team lead with Andrew Ladd. by far the fewest shots go against the team when he is on the ice. this is mainly due to a sheer dominance in puck possession when he is on the ice, despite stong quality of competition numbers. what may look like a player floating around lazily is actually a player in perfect position. many people make the error of underrating welly because of size and speed deficiencies, but his IQ and skill make up for it. you will likely see wellwood as the benefactor of our impending lineup change as every statistical category besides points are strongly in his favour

ALEXANDERBURMISTROV is third with 13.12. he has built on last season and has maintained a high level of play. i dont think there is a misconception as Jets Nation pretty much seems to agree that Burmi is gold. he is behind only wellwood in shots and chances against the team when he is on the ice per 60 minutes. very useful player who should retain top 6 minutes.

GRANTCLITSOME 4th with 8.68. He has the same thing as Postma going on here. he is doing well, but benefits from weaker opponents.

ANDREWLADD is 5th 8.21. this is also unsurprising. he is our captain and usually brings a strong game to the table. he is in familiar territory here as a force on the ice and very few liabilities in his game. this should not surprise jets Nation

Ponikarovski, Little and Kane round out the remaining positive players on the team with Corsi numbers 2.13, 2.10, 1.23 respectively.

The only players on the jets with significantly bad statistics in this category are Slater, Hainsey and Thorburn who have a role on this team, but overall are not the strongest players.

So with an impending shake up in the lines what do you expect to see? the current top six

Kane Wheeler Jokinen
Ladd Burmi Little

is a tough nut to crack with no glaring deficiencies. the answer for me is to adjust to a top nine that rolls with more or less equal ice time. our top line has been relied on too heavily and has failed. the team can only survive if scoring happens by committee and i would like to see hot hands getting a ride more often rather than forcing the top line to play in every offensive situation. my prediction is that wellwood gets the bump into the top six, but the ensuing lineup would necessitate a more equal share of ice time anyway. my guess for the specific change is less sure than the general dynamic, but ill take a stab

Ladd Little Jokinen
Wellwood Burmi Wheeler
Poni Antro Kane

the TSN article suggests that big changes are on the way. anyone else wanna take a stab at what Noel might do to the line combinations? This is a good opportunity to take a guess as changes appear to be right around the corner.

Also sorry for long post, but its my first and i tried to get the most out of it. haha
Heck yeah. Great post and yes, Gabe's site is awesome.

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