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Prospect Talk PART VI

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Old
03-01-2013, 09:48 AM
  #226
duster19
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Originally Posted by kasper11 View Post
Those players contributed to winning because they are on a team that is a lot better than what the Isles got. They didn't win anything until they added Mike Richards and Jeff Carter in one year. And their goalie decided to be the best player in the world for a year.

Mattias Tedenby has contributed more to winning than Jordan Eberle, does that mean NJ drafted better?

And yes, I do think that the 2008 draft was successful. You don't get star players in every draft, even with a top-10 pick. The vast majority of players taken between 6 and 10 do not become stars. The vast majority of picks after the 2nd round never make it. So adding one very good player (Hamonic) and several depth players is a success. It is more than most teams are able to do in most drafts.

The problem isn't the drafted players, it's the complete lack of support to surround those players. Every team that has built from the draft has done so by adding significant players outside of the draft as well (except kind of for Pittsburgh, who was lucky enough to draft in the top-2 three times and to snag two sure-fire superstars). Most of those teams had a better core than the Isles before they started.
I agree with you that most orgs would be really happy with having a couple players make a roster from a draft and that the majority of 2nd round and deeper picks never make it. The reality is, alot dont ever make it from any round. However, for the Isles, a team that doesnt sign players, it is not a great acheivement for drafted players to reach the NHL level. It is a given. Players leave, we dont sign anyone, therefore someone has to play. It is more about the necessity for bodies, on the cheap, that allows these players to make the jump to the NHL.

Im saying we should not go around bragging about being bandits in a draft where we busted on our 1st round and have a couple depth guys hanging around, mixed in with Hamonic. Really, Hamonic is the only player in that draft who is something to talk about. He is probably the only player from that draft that would command more then he was drafted for (or even an equivalent pick). Nobody is giving up a 9th overall for bailey, a 4th for Ullstrom, a 5th for Poulin, 5th for Martin..maybe.

No GM/execs are giddy over drafting a 4th and 5th rounders who play on the 4th line on a team that is struggling.

Pitts drafted 4 times in the top 2. they went 1 2 1 2 overall. Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, Staal (not in order).

The problem is drafting AND signing talent. However, when a GM comes out and openly says there plan is to rebuild through the draft and they wont make rash decisions or trades...then you have to produce through the draft! You dont have any other options. Looking at this team on paper and the potential players we have coming up, I dont see us better off then any NHL team.

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03-01-2013, 09:59 AM
  #227
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Originally Posted by kasper11 View Post
In the 2007 draft, the Isles did not have a 1st or 2nd round pick. That is why I start judging based on the 2008 draft. Those players are 23, and five of them are NHL regulars (and I think would be on most teams).

The 2009 drafted players are 22, and two of them are NHL regulars, including one star (amazing how you praise TB for drafting Stamkos, but write off JT as a no-brainer).

You seem to have unrealistic assumptions about the draft. Read this...
http://proicehockey.about.com/od/pro...ft_success.htm

Basically, a first round pick is more likely than not to make it (63%), but only about 1/4 of second round picks make it, and 12% of picks after that (granted the study used the 90s, so maybe drafting has gotten a little better).

So, a team is generally going to be lucky to get two regular players out of a draft.

The key thing to remember is that a vast majority of all picks never make it at all. A tiny minority become true stars. Given the development of the Isles prospects from 2008 an 2009 (7 NHL regulars), I would say our drafting has been solid. We will wait and see about 2010-12.
ok well this is just getting repetitive, so this is my last addition to this discussion (a good one at that, good to know there are passionate Isles fans).

2009 we were bandits. We got Johnny T. Just like I said about TB with Stamkos. Do they get cedit for being a drafting genius for taking Stamkos or JT..no it was a no brainer. However, they still make out like bandits.

Most orgs are lucky to get a couplep layers from a draft. Most orgs go an sign players to replace players that left. Most teams spend above the cap floor without signing retired players for their cap hit. The Islanders are not most teams. They dont sign talent, instead Snow is trying to bring in talent through the draft. Hence, we have drafted players on the roster. To me, saying we madeout like bandits in 08, doesnt make sense because our most valued commodity of that draft sucks. I dont care that we have 4th liners and healthy scratches from that draft. Any organization could do that. They just dont, because they dont want to suck.

My assumptions are fine. We have a GM saying he is rebuilding through the draft. So far, he has tried that, but failed. When Snow took over this team, we went to the playoffs. 7 years later we are looking like a top 5 pick again. So, how has he drafted well if we are worse and he has had 6 years of drafting?

Anyways, thanks for the posts. Go Isles....

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Old
03-01-2013, 12:41 PM
  #228
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kasper11 View Post
The problem isn't the drafted players, it's the complete lack of support to surround those players. Every team that has built from the draft has done so by adding significant players outside of the draft as well (except kind of for Pittsburgh, who was lucky enough to draft in the top-2 three times and to snag two sure-fire superstars). Most of those teams had a better core than the Isles before they started.
Eh, we're no exception to the above. Guys like Gonchar, Hossa, Guerin, Kunitz, Dupuis, Gill, etc. were brought in to "round out" the roster of young kids. Even if you just look at the Pens' 2009 Cup winning roster, the top two lines had 3 additions from outside (Guerin, Kunitz, Fedotenko), and the top four defense had two additions from the outside (Gonchar and Gill).

Other than that, I totally agree with you. Successful teams simply don't just rebuild through the draft. They also add players to compliment their youngsters, to surround them with the support so they don't have to do everything on their own.

I think one key thing that gets overlooked about rebuilding entirely through the draft, is there's zero margin for error about player evaluation and development. If you're building through the draft exclusively, then every high draft pick better damn well turn out. You can't afford to whiff on a pick, because you're not filling that hole with any trades/free agent signings.

Sorry to keep using the Pens, but I'm more familiar with them than any other club so it's easier to reference them. But the Pens can't make mistakes in their drafting and still have a strong club. Why? Because even if a player like Beau Bennett doesn't pan out, they'll just trade for a Neal or sign a guy in free agency. In other words, they have alternate methods of landing that "top six guy" even if their draft pick fizzles.

With the Islanders, they need their draft picks to reach their ceiling. If Niederreiter doesn't become the top line, 30 goal winger, where's the contingency plan? If Snow's building exclusively through the draft, he needs Niederreiter to pan out otherwise there's a massive hole in the line up. If Strome doesn't pan out, where is the 2nd line center coming from?

I also think that's why Isles fans are so down on guys like Okposo and Bailey. Because those guys were *needed* to be top line players. There was no wiggle room for them to become even solid players, because no alternatives were brought in incase they didn't reach their ceiling.

IMO, that's the flaw with the "rebuild entirely through the draft" approach. Zero margin for error.

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Old
03-01-2013, 11:35 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by luki here View Post
i cant ignore that since the lockout has been over i have constantly read foundless criticism of the reinhart selection on your part. Just more of the same, really.
I didn't realize I had to clear it with you. When I go to 40 games a year and spend thousands of dollars on this team annually, I have every right to criticize the front office. Snow has made too many bad picks and Reinhart has had a poor year. He looked bad at the WJC. I felt this was a bad pick on day 1 and still do. I believe I am entitled to my opinion just as you are yours

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03-02-2013, 01:00 AM
  #230
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Originally Posted by LotteryForLife View Post
I didn't realize I had to clear it with you. When I go to 40 games a year and spend thousands of dollars on this team annually, I have every right to criticize the front office. Snow has made too many bad picks and Reinhart has had a poor year. He looked bad at the WJC. I felt this was a bad pick on day 1 and still do. I believe I am entitled to my opinion just as you are yours
Everyone here is critical of the front office, i think people feel your judgement of Reinhart is baseless. Personally, i'd like to hear your explanation as to why he is having such a horrible year.

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03-02-2013, 05:28 AM
  #231
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Reinhart with 1 goal, 2 assists and +3 yesterday.

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Old
03-02-2013, 06:07 AM
  #232
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Originally Posted by LotteryForLife View Post
I didn't realize I had to clear it with you. When I go to 40 games a year and spend thousands of dollars on this team annually, I have every right to criticize the front office. Snow has made too many bad picks and Reinhart has had a poor year. He looked bad at the WJC. I felt this was a bad pick on day 1 and still do. I believe I am entitled to my opinion just as you are yours
Someone ought to tell the slackers in the press, that Reinhart's having a poor yr.


http://thehockeywriters.com/combine/...ey-to-success/
By Carl MaloneyFebruary 19, 2013
Edmonton Oil Kings Defence the Key to Success

They currently sit first in the WHL’s Eastern Conference and second in the league only to the Portland Winterhawks.

Reinhart is the leader of the group and team captain. The big, rangy defenceman was the 4th overall pick in the draft to the New York Islanders and plays a solid two way game and rarely gets caught out of position.

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Old
03-02-2013, 06:15 AM
  #233
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Originally Posted by duster19 View Post
It amazes me how long Snow has been in charge of the Islanders and how few legit NHL'ers are on this team. He has been drafting since 07 and we are still waiting on prospects. It must be difficult to play in an organization that just doesnt seem to want to improve or succeed. Does it matter if they play well? No one is going to replace them...
Makes you wonder where we would be if Neil Smith had remained as GM instead.

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Old
03-02-2013, 08:12 AM
  #234
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Originally Posted by duster19 View Post
Josh Bailey is a bust. We just continue to parade him out there.

9 NHLers? Where do you see 9 NHLers? I see a bunch of guys getting a chance to play (or a potential place to play) because we have no other options. We dont sign anyone. We dont trade for anyone. We have to play picks because they are our only players. Of course these guys are going to be eventually playing in the NHL.

If we were playing these guys and winning, then yes, great draft. But since we are getting pumped every night, it doesnt say much about the talent from that draft. We could have 20 guys from that draft, but if we lose every game from them, then who cares?
It's funny that I wrote "6 or 7 or 8 NHLers" and you replied "9 NHLers? Where do you see 9 NHLers".

I also find it funny that EVERYONE in 2008 wanted Filatov or Schenn. When Snow traded down and took Bailey, EVERYONE was upset that he didn't take Filatov or Schenn. Now that Bailey is better than Filatov and probably Schenn too, it's "Snow should've taken Karlsson or Myers or Eberle". I mean, c'mon.

You really need to go to a website of past drafts and digest exactly what percentage of draft picks are busts.

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03-02-2013, 10:29 AM
  #235
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Friday

Note-Sorry for the late updates but there have been technical difficulties the last
few day here at the D Rex dungeon.

Guelph 6, Sault Ste Marie 3-Pedan, even.
Barrie 2, Mississauga 0-Theoret, even.
Edmonton 7, Everett 1-Reinhart, 1 goal (7), 2 assists, + 3.
Spokane 4, Victoria 3 (OT)-Kichton, 3 assists, even.
Notre Dame 4, Bowling Green 3-Lee, 2 assists, + 1, Russo, 1 assist, + 1.
Denver 2, Minnesota 0-Mayfield, even.

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Old
03-02-2013, 10:39 AM
  #236
CREW99AW
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Originally Posted by Degeneration Rex View Post
Friday

Note-Sorry for the late updates but there have been technical difficulties the last
few day here at the D Rex dungeon.

Guelph 6, Sault Ste Marie 3-Pedan, even.
Barrie 2, Mississauga 0-Theoret, even.
Edmonton 7, Everett 1-Reinhart, 1 goal (7), 2 assists, + 3.
Spokane 4, Victoria 3 (OT)-Kichton, 3 assists, even.
Notre Dame 4, Bowling Green 3-Lee, 2 assists, + 1, Russo, 1 assist, + 1.
Denver 2, Minnesota 0-Mayfield, even.

thanks for the update.

Has anyone read any rumors, about the isles wanting to sign Kitchon?

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Old
03-02-2013, 10:42 AM
  #237
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Originally Posted by CREW99AW View Post
thanks for the update.

Has anyone read any rumors, about the isles wanting to sign Kitchon?
He shoud have been in BPORT this year imo

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Old
03-02-2013, 10:47 AM
  #238
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He shoud have been in BPORT this year imo
There was no need for him to play an overage season but you know how the
Islanders work.

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Old
03-02-2013, 10:49 AM
  #239
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Originally Posted by CREW99AW View Post
thanks for the update.

Has anyone read any rumors, about the isles wanting to sign Kitchon?
Have not heard a thing and I listen to most of Spokane's games and when
Kichton has been interviewed there has been no mention of the Islanders.

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03-02-2013, 11:16 AM
  #240
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Have not heard a thing and I listen to most of Spokane's games and when
Kichton has been interviewed there has been no mention of the Islanders.
This worrys me, On potential he deserves an ELC... I know he was a late round pick but that doesnt mean its ok to let him walk....Spurgeonwas too and hes found his team and is playing pretty well...

I think the fact that this kid is a dman and putting up the Numbers he has been the past few years that you have to give him a chance....

Could be Rafalski or Dan Boyle or he could bust.....


I still would rather see him succede or fail as a part of this org. than another

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Old
03-02-2013, 11:18 AM
  #241
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Have not heard a thing and I listen to most of Spokane's games and when
Kichton has been interviewed there has been no mention of the Islanders.
Darn. I would like to read that the isles have been attending his games, that he's expected to sign as soon as his season ends.

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03-02-2013, 11:22 AM
  #242
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Originally Posted by Degeneration Rex View Post
There was no need for him to play an overage season but you know how the
Islanders work.
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Originally Posted by StrongIslanders90 View Post
He shoud have been in BPORT this year imo
In fairness to the Isles, I think the lockout hurt a lot of players. Without the lockout at least one of De Haan/Donavan/Ness would have been with the Isles and that would have opened up space for Kichton. Plus Hamonic was on the team as well. Kichton would have ended up with bottom pair minutes and little powerplay time.

As it was, I don't think the team wanted to go with 4 young, undersized dmen on the team. They wanted some size and experience which is why they brought in Landry.

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03-02-2013, 11:51 AM
  #243
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Kichton will get an ELC, don't worry. I don't think we're at the contract limit, and you gotta account that this team will likely be sellers at the trade deadline.

At worst, Kichton will be a serviceable offensive d-man in the AHL. I'd be shocked if he isn't signed once Spokane's season ends. Especially since Garth just spent every pick in the last draft on defenseman, means that position is a priority for the Islanders.

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Old
03-02-2013, 01:35 PM
  #244
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Kichton will get an ELC, don't worry. I don't think we're at the contract limit, and you gotta account that this team will likely be sellers at the trade deadline.

At worst, Kichton will be a serviceable offensive d-man in the AHL. I'd be shocked if he isn't signed once Spokane's season ends. Especially since Garth just spent every pick in the last draft on defenseman, means that position is a priority for the Islanders.
I'm sure Kitchon will be offered an ELC. But if Spokane goes deep into the playoffs what is Kitchon's motivation to sign an ELC with the Islanders when he can become a free agent? If they make it deep into the playoffs, the Islanders won't be able to offer him money this year and a year off of his ELC. Next year, the Islanders will be just like every other team in the league in Kitchon's eyes.

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Old
03-02-2013, 03:42 PM
  #245
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Originally Posted by Degeneration Rex View Post
Friday

Note-Sorry for the late updates but there have been technical difficulties the last
few day here at the D Rex dungeon.

Guelph 6, Sault Ste Marie 3-Pedan, even.
Barrie 2, Mississauga 0-Theoret, even.
Edmonton 7, Everett 1-Reinhart, 1 goal (7), 2 assists, + 3.
Spokane 4, Victoria 3 (OT)-Kichton, 3 assists, even.
Notre Dame 4, Bowling Green 3-Lee, 2 assists, + 1, Russo, 1 assist, + 1.
Denver 2, Minnesota 0-Mayfield, even.
I'll gt the highlights up shortly. No technical issues for me, just on the road the last few days. Getting home tonight, will cut up the tape and post.

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03-02-2013, 03:55 PM
  #246
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Some of you guys are hilarious....

They rush Bailey and you bash them for it. They leave the kids in the minors to develop, and you bash them because they aren't in the NHL. Draft a 17 year old that does well in the WHL? You want him in the NHL immediately. When that happens and he stinks up the joint, you call him a bust... aaaand bash the Islanders for not drafting well.

A year later, that same prospect is put in position to succeed.... and does? The same crowd wants him back in the NHL immediately.

Seriously, take some meds or start rooting for the Devils.

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Old
03-02-2013, 06:54 PM
  #247
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Makes you wonder where we would be if Neil Smith had remained as GM instead.
Basically same place.

Wang is the constant here.

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Old
03-02-2013, 07:42 PM
  #248
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From Thursday night.... Ryan Strome's assist.






Lee's assists from Last night (incomplete highlight from first goal, my apologies, you can still see his screen created the goal):



Griffin Reinhart 1G 2A fromn Last night:



Brenden Kichton 3 Point night last night, this guy is unstoppable on the Powerplay or 4 on 4.


Last edited by InformTheMasses: 03-02-2013 at 09:04 PM.
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03-02-2013, 08:54 PM
  #249
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Saturday

Niagara 5, Belleville 4 (OT)-Strome, 2 assists, + 1, Graham, 1 assist, + 1.
Spokane 3, Victoria 2-Kichton, even.
Notre Dame 4, Bowling Green 1-Lee, 1 goal (18), + 1, Russo, 1 assist, + 1.
Minnesota 5, Denver 1-Mayfield, 1 goal (3), -2.


Last edited by Degeneration Rex: 03-02-2013 at 11:25 PM.
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Old
03-02-2013, 09:00 PM
  #250
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Originally Posted by Jester9881 View Post
Some of you guys are hilarious....

They rush Bailey and you bash them for it. They leave the kids in the minors to develop, and you bash them because they aren't in the NHL. Draft a 17 year old that does well in the WHL? You want him in the NHL immediately. When that happens and he stinks up the joint, you call him a bust... aaaand bash the Islanders for not drafting well.

A year later, that same prospect is put in position to succeed.... and does? The same crowd wants him back in the NHL immediately.

Seriously, take some meds or start rooting for the Devils.
Well said, this place is a pysch ward.

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