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Phoenix LXXII: Send in the Clowns

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Old
03-11-2013, 01:26 PM
  #826
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Originally Posted by preissingg View Post
Although that is indeed a possibility, if fails to be a unique one as many interested parties familiar with the various elements in this equation are capable of issuing statements seeking to clarify the source of the current impasse.
Greg obviously hired a lawyer

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03-11-2013, 02:08 PM
  #827
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Greg obviously hired a lawyer
My client has no comment at this point.

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Old
03-11-2013, 02:35 PM
  #828
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I'm starting to get the feeling that something may have happened between the NHL and PKP.

The NHL may have approached PKP and said you can buy the franchise for 170M. But PKP would have to pay more than that getting it up and running. The price may be too high even for them to do well. If PKP was desperate for a team, then sure. But they may not be as desperate as QC fans want them to be? Even the deepest pocketed buyers don't want to throw away money. There is no guarantee of recouping anything with an inflated price. Is this team worth 170M in QC?

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03-11-2013, 02:45 PM
  #829
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Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post
Someday, it will all crash for them, and the Columbuses, Tampas, Miamis, etc will fold because the local handouts from governments won't be enough anymore, the whole league will look foolish, and then what? I want to see what happens then.
Honestly that would be a good thing since it would remove most of the league's losses and improve play at the same time. Just like the Arena Football League did this past off-season dumping the weaker teams that drew flies can't hurt that much considering the fact the these teams were never televised much to begin with or made much money if any, so losing them won't hurt the bottom line as much as improve it.

Example - Say Phoenix and Carolina were to fold, now the TV deal goes down from $200 million but does the pay per team go up or down? You also have to consider that games featuring these two would be replaced by teams with higher avg. tv ratings so it's hard to say but let's just drop it $10 million:

190/28 ~= (6.785) > 200/30 = (6.66)

Total deal goes down but teams get paid more.

That said the league would be better off putting the weaker teams into stronger markets rather than folding them. They would be better off selling the Coyotes to an outside group even at a reduced price($140-$150) in order to get secure future profits.

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03-11-2013, 02:47 PM
  #830
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I'm starting to get the feeling that something may have happened between the NHL and PKP.

The NHL may have approached PKP and said you can buy the franchise for 170M. But PKP would have to pay more than that getting it up and running. The price may be too high even for them to do well. If PKP was desperate for a team, then sure. But they may not be as desperate as QC fans want them to be? Even the deepest pocketed buyers don't want to throw away money. There is no guarantee of recouping anything with an inflated price. Is this team worth 170M in QC?
No doubt. Lemme go further. My bet is 180M + 60M relo fees.

If it happens, the announcement will have gigantic effect here, I cannot find the words to describe. The whole province will talk about this for months, if not years. Even at this price tag, this is a slam dunk for Quebecor media and Peladeau knows tenths of thousands are waiting. Of course, he will loose money in the old Colisee, but the addition of this assets in his enterprises is almost priceless.

BTW, they sold 250M bonds last spring, many thinks it was for the Coyotes purchase but we never read something official about the use of this money.

I don't know how Phoenix was when the Cards moved in. A never seen party, that could last two days. The rebirth of a passion, you will see people crying, many thousands will walk the Grande Allee, cannot describe.

At this moment, the Nordique Nation got 8 buses full of fans for the march 16th game in New Jersey, against Montreal. No need to mention who they will cheer for.


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Old
03-11-2013, 02:53 PM
  #831
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Originally Posted by NHLfan4life View Post
I'm starting to get the feeling that something may have happened between the NHL and PKP.

The NHL may have approached PKP and said you can buy the franchise for 170M. But PKP would have to pay more than that getting it up and running. The price may be too high even for them to do well. If PKP was desperate for a team, then sure. But they may not be as desperate as QC fans want them to be? Even the deepest pocketed buyers don't want to throw away money. There is no guarantee of recouping anything with an inflated price. Is this team worth 170M in QC?
I have the exact thought process when I read about expansion fees north of 200m$. I said it before, PKP will not bite on a, lets' speculate, 300m$ expansion fee. Not when so many teams are struggling and can be bought at a much lower price if they go belly up.

To answer your question, no doubt PKP can and would afford the Coyotes at 170m$.

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03-11-2013, 03:22 PM
  #832
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Originally Posted by NHLfan4life View Post
I'm starting to get the feeling that something may have happened between the NHL and PKP.

The NHL may have approached PKP and said you can buy the franchise for 170M. But PKP would have to pay more than that getting it up and running. The price may be too high even for them to do well. If PKP was desperate for a team, then sure. But they may not be as desperate as QC fans want them to be? Even the deepest pocketed buyers don't want to throw away money. There is no guarantee of recouping anything with an inflated price. Is this team worth 170M in QC?
I'm sure ( just like TNSE was ) the NHL and PKP have been talking. The issue is... how desperate is PKP for a team or are they willing to play hard ball with the NHL. Is the NHL asking PKP are they willing to take the team at price XYZ or has PKP trying to get a lower price at the risk of getting Gary mad and having the NHL look elsewhere.

There is a fine line as to push and pull in this kind of negotiation. Personally I think anyone in QC should pay the same as TNSE paid. And speaking of TNSE...

The one thing I have never heard from the NHL or TNSE was how the negotiations for price went. Was a price for relocation negotiated years ago with TNSE just waiting for a team to become available? Or was the price negotiated at the last minute once ASG threw the keys on Bettman's desk? How friendly was it?

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03-11-2013, 03:29 PM
  #833
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I have the exact thought process when I read about expansion fees north of 200m$. I said it before, PKP will not bite on a, lets' speculate, 300m$ expansion fee. Not when so many teams are struggling and can be bought at a much lower price if they go belly up.To answer your question, no doubt PKP can and would afford the Coyotes at 170m$.
We were speculating about this last year as well, that quite possibly the only soft landing spot the NHL had/has is QC. PKP well aware of it. The NHL perhaps getting greedy, demanding a Relo Fee over and above the $170M etc; Peladeau refusing to pay more than TNSE.... Winnipeg about the same size as Quebec, hard to justify tacking on another $50M+ or whatever in relo fee's but who beyond the NHL & PKP even knows....

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03-11-2013, 03:52 PM
  #834
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Originally Posted by cbcwpg View Post
I'm sure ( just like TNSE was ) the NHL and PKP have been talking. The issue is... how desperate is PKP for a team or are they willing to play hard ball with the NHL. Is the NHL asking PKP are they willing to take the team at price XYZ or has PKP trying to get a lower price at the risk of getting Gary mad and having the NHL look elsewhere.

There is a fine line as to push and pull in this kind of negotiation. Personally I think anyone in QC should pay the same as TNSE paid. And speaking of TNSE...

The one thing I have never heard from the NHL or TNSE was how the negotiations for price went. Was a price for relocation negotiated years ago with TNSE just waiting for a team to become available? Or was the price negotiated at the last minute once ASG threw the keys on Bettman's desk? How friendly was it?
chipman began "negotiating" 10 years before the team arrived when he met up with bettman in salt lake city during the winter olympics. and that subsequent 10 year long discussion likely had little to do with the amount of money that would change hands, but instead everything else. by all accounts the process was very cordial.

similarly, the actual price pkp will eventually pay for his team is likely very low on the list of issues being discussed and agreed to. and it's silly to think pkp would risk forfeiting the team over $20M or $30M. bettman will be reasonable and he will pay what bettman asks. and he will do so with a very big smile on his face.

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03-11-2013, 04:44 PM
  #835
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At this moment, the Nordique Nation got 8 buses full of fans for the march 16th game in New Jersey, against Montreal. No need to mention who they will cheer for.
For Montreal because of our provincial kindridship?

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03-11-2013, 04:52 PM
  #836
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PKP will not overpay. It's not in his nature. He wants to pay less than fmv, not more.

I take the realignment plans as a sign that they are far enough apart on price that the NHL is not saving a space for QC in the new alignment.

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03-11-2013, 06:23 PM
  #837
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PKP will not overpay. It's not in his nature. He wants to pay less than fmv, not more.

I take the realignment plans as a sign that they are far enough apart on price that the NHL is not saving a space for QC in the new alignment.
I'd bet PKP would snap it up for 170, it's the 30 million plus the league more than likely wants to tack on that is the problem.

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03-11-2013, 06:24 PM
  #838
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Originally Posted by Mork View Post
PKP will not overpay. It's not in his nature. He wants to pay less than fmv, not more.

I take the realignment plans as a sign that they are far enough apart on price that the NHL is not saving a space for QC in the new alignment.
I was also thinking this. There is very little sign of QC in any future plans on the outside. Things that make you go hmmmmmm...

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03-11-2013, 06:26 PM
  #839
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Originally Posted by GuelphStormer View Post
chipman began "negotiating" 10 years before the team arrived when he met up with bettman in salt lake city during the winter olympics. and that subsequent 10 year long discussion likely had little to do with the amount of money that would change hands, but instead everything else. by all accounts the process was very cordial.

similarly, the actual price pkp will eventually pay for his team is likely very low on the list of issues being discussed and agreed to. and it's silly to think pkp would risk forfeiting the team over $20M or $30M. bettman will be reasonable and he will pay what bettman asks. and he will do so with a very big smile on his face.
I find it hard in any situation to play hard ball and be desperate at the same time. I know that is the fine line, but it really doesn't bode well for PKP. As usual, the NHL holds all of the cards.

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03-11-2013, 06:52 PM
  #840
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I find it hard in any situation to play hard ball and be desperate at the same time. I know that is the fine line, but it really doesn't bode well for PKP. As usual, the NHL holds all of the cards.
Ya, its certainly a curious situation. The one destination that we know of with a willing buyer, a reno'd temporary facility that is indeed more than sufficient with shovels in the ground, new building on the way, and yet?.... I sort of assumed the trigger wasnt pulled last spring as a result of the Coyotes surprisingly deep playoff run & what was clearly a pre-planned Lockout, wiping out 1/2 the season. Why bother if your PKP tying up all that equity, launching whenever, as no one was sure when the shutdown would be over, complicating matters enormously? I have a hard time believing Bettman would try to extort maximum relo fee's over & above the actual sale price but I suppose its possible, willing to sit the franchise for yet another season in Glendale if needs be while Seattle comes on-line, gaining the leverage he needs to hit it out of the park. Beyond a muddy situation as we all know. Some clarity would be nice, and for all concerned.

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03-11-2013, 07:34 PM
  #841
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Daly came out and said this realignment does not take into consideration future expansion or relocation.
source: http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2...if-it-happens/
Of course! It's obvious the league will play this game 'til the very last minute.

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03-11-2013, 08:05 PM
  #842
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No doubt. Lemme go further. My bet is 180M + 60M relo fees.

If it happens, the announcement will have gigantic effect here, I cannot find the words to describe. The whole province will talk about this for months, if not years. Even at this price tag, this is a slam dunk for Quebecor media and Peladeau knows tenths of thousands are waiting. Of course, he will loose money in the old Colisee, but the addition of this assets in his enterprises is almost priceless.

BTW, they sold 250M bonds last spring, many thinks it was for the Coyotes purchase but we never read something official about the use of this money.

I don't know how Phoenix was when the Cards moved in. A never seen party, that could last two days. The rebirth of a passion, you will see people crying, many thousands will walk the Grande Allee, cannot describe.

At this moment, the Nordique Nation got 8 buses full of fans for the march 16th game in New Jersey, against Montreal. No need to mention who they will cheer for.
I just hope that if the city goes on fire the day of the Nords return announcment, that it won't literally do so (see what happens in Montreal when the Habs win a playoff round)

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03-11-2013, 08:07 PM
  #843
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If PKP was desperate for a team, then sure. But they may not be as desperate as QC fans want them to be? Even the deepest pocketed buyers don't want to throw away money.
Please forgive the inherent arrogance of quoting my own post and for contributing to the Quebecification of the Phoenix thread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CasualFan
Originally Posted on June 19, 2012

Here's my speculation:

I think the league is stuck.

1 - I don't believe that the NHL has any valid relocation options
2 - I think that Quebec manifest destiny is a hoax
3 - I think that the NHL has to take whatever they can get in Glendale

@ 1
I don't think that there is a market/arena on the continent that the NHL can move this franchise to. There is a short list of arenas that can host an NHL franchise. The business model of the league requires almost complete control of arena revenues. That takes a short list and makes it much shorter. In fact, it makes it zero. AEG has no incentive to give up control of KC. There's not a building in SEA. ATL cannot sustain a franchise. CLE? HOU? You want to move this team? Where are you going to put it? Portland?

@2
Quebec. The rather wealthy fellow who has control of the new arena in Quebec is aware of @ 1. Rather wealthy fellows with considerable leverage tend not to overpay for assets. There seem to be several NHL franchises having difficult times. Why would one pay an inflated price now when the assets seem to be rather easy to come by? Especially if you are still a ways from completing construction on your arena (which only recently cleared some form of legal challenge) and your lease agreement causes you escalating payments if you have a team. I know, PKP is wealthy. But there is a difference between having a pile of money and spending a pile of money. A group of eager fans with a manifest destiny agenda probably will struggle to accept this, but there is very low incentive for a Quebec owner to obtain an NHL franchise at this time.

@3
The NHL might have to dance with who brung them. Glendale. Whatever amount* they can get from the city and vetted through the Goldwater/court process looks a lot better than any of their other options.

That's my speculation.
Nine months later: AEG is still amid their internal restructuring process; Seattle has not broken ground; Portland is likely a non-starter unless Paul Allen/Vulcan Sports and Entertainment wants an NHL entity.

Doesn't look like the NHL has a lot of ways to play this hand. They better hope Quebecorp really wants the broadcast content component of this, because otherwise, it's hard to find a reason for PKP to want this team for 13-14 Season.

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03-11-2013, 08:32 PM
  #844
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Really have a hard time buying into the speculation that the Yotes didn't go to QC was due to PKP not wanting to meet the NHL's price point.

CoG was able to approve the 1st AMF to Jamison in June was really the reason why the team stayed put for this season, so as long as the Yotes breathe life in AZ, the amount PKP (or any other out of town buyer for that matter) was willing to pay is irrelevant.

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03-11-2013, 08:41 PM
  #845
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I was also thinking this. There is very little sign of QC in any future plans on the outside. Things that make you go hmmmmmm...
Well, the situation, I mean, utter madness going on in QC right now is crazy. It is a powder keg. If the new realignment had included even an hint that QC could be playing in the NHL next season, you wouldn't hear the end of it for months. QC is like a hungry lion, a very hungry lion and it is hungry for hockey. Watch QC news if a relocation is announced...

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Please forgive the inherent arrogance of quoting my own post and for contributing to the Quebecification of the Phoenix thread.



Nine months later: AEG is still amid their internal restructuring process; Seattle has not broken ground; Portland is likely a non-starter unless Paul Allen/Vulcan Sports and Entertainment wants an NHL entity.

Doesn't look like the NHL has a lot of ways to play this hand. They better hope Quebecorp really wants the broadcast content component of this, because otherwise, it's hard to find a reason for PKP to want this team for 13-14 Season.
Totally agree with all you said/say. I was one of the only guy saying PKP will not overpay when rumours of expansion started flying. He is sitting on a great hockey market, a brand new top of the line arena that's set to open in 2015 and a bunch of hockey team are having trouble having ends meet. This guy is a great business man. I think QC fans are 10 times more desperate than he is. He will make the best decision for his company, I'm sure of it.

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03-11-2013, 09:03 PM
  #846
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I think the "Seattle" issue will be determined next month, if they are able to purchase the NBA's Kings (which seems likely considering recent statements by Stern of the local Sacramento bid being too low). This should allow the Sodo arena process to move forward (notwithstanding some local legal challenges), and by acquiring an NHL team, the city of Seattle will contribute an additional $80m towards the arena's construction cost. That's a pretty good incentive, imo.

If not, QC looks like the likely landing spot by default.


(On a side note, Seattle announced today that they’re launching a Priority Ticket Waitlist for future Sonics tickets.)

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03-11-2013, 09:39 PM
  #847
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For Montreal because of our provincial kindridship?
As soon I am west of Trois-Rivières, I consider myself in hostile territory ;-)

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03-11-2013, 09:51 PM
  #848
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No, I'm not actually. The structure of the deal was not the point.
When comparing offers made before or during the bankruptcy with offers made now you have to factor in the debt the pre/during bankruptcy bidders were assuming as part of the deal. So if Reinsdorf was offering to put up $70 million and was assuming the loan from Michael Dell's company of $80 million he was valuing the Coyotes at $150 million.

You are confusing ENTERPRISE value with EQUITY value.

Enterprise value = Equity value + assumed debt

So since the debt was wiped out in the bankruptcy whoever buys the Coyotes now has to pay the entire enterprise value, since there is no debt to assume.

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03-11-2013, 10:02 PM
  #849
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paring offers made before or during the bankruptcy with offers made now you have to factor in the debt the pre/during bankruptcy bidders were assuming as part of the deal. So if Reinsdorf was offering to put up $70 million and was assuming the loan from Michael Dell's company of $80 million he was valuing the Coyotes at $150 million.

You are confusing ENTERPRISE value with EQUITY value.

Enterprise value = Equity value + assumed debt

So since the debt was wiped out in the bankruptcy whoever buys the Coyotes now has to pay the entire enterprise value, since there is no debt to assume.
reinsdorf offer didn't come close to putting up half that amount and then he wanted guarantees he'd get his money back.
http://m.espn.go.com/wireless/story?...69&src=desktop

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03-11-2013, 10:18 PM
  #850
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(On a side note, Seattle announced today that they’re launching a Priority Ticket Waitlist for future Sonics tickets.)
Very positive news for Seattle, IMO.

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