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Ryan O'Reilly Headed to Offer Sheet or Trade? (Part 2)

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02-13-2013, 10:37 PM
  #351
zeke
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Originally Posted by Avs44 View Post
He's moved past crappy...he's trying to use draft position now
draft position, age, production, talent, and salary were all used.

you want to ignore all of them but one.

but your use of smilies is a particularly good argument, I have to say.

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02-13-2013, 10:37 PM
  #352
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Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
Two of the Isles top prospects if your counting all of the like 15 top prospects they have. How exactly is C. de Haan a need for us with Elliott & Barrie in the system? Niederreiter has more questions than answers at this point...

This isn't even close, the rumor is a ROSTER PLAYER (That's someone who is PROVEN), and a top prospect.

Nice try though...
first off, this wasn't my trade proposal. i happened to agree with an avs fans who thought the value was there. also, both of our teams have multiple needs. the way i see it is: value is value. you get the value where you can. i think the avs are best served by treating an o'reilly trade the way teams view the draft: get the best players available regardless of position. and the deal doesn't have to be dehaan and niederreiter. it could be donovan instead. maybe the key piece going to colorado is okposo. lots of options between the nyi and the avs, in my opinion.

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02-13-2013, 10:38 PM
  #353
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Originally Posted by WornWithPride View Post
I'm always tentative when leafs fan go from ''Untoucheable'' (Last year) to trade him (very next year). I figure there's something to it.

That being said, A big body offensive dman is a very good start. MacArthur has been trending downwards since half way through last year...

I don't know, the fact I'm not jumping on/off this deal makes me feel like it's fair. previously mention too... many times
I understand your concern, but imo in order to get something good you have to give something good and gardiner has a bright future in this league.

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02-13-2013, 10:44 PM
  #354
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
draft position, age, production, talent, and salary were all used.

you want to ignorant all of them but one.

but your use of smilies is a particularly good argument, I have to say.
Production? Correct me if I'm wrong, has Gardiner played a full season in the NHL to make a compa.. rison? Aren't they just a few years different in age? Draft position is irrelevant, many of the most stable players in the league we drafted in the second round or further. Salary is only valid if O'Reilly had one. All your points are ridiculous and easily refuted. I'm a fan of neither team and don't watch much, and for me to figure this out is simple.

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02-13-2013, 10:44 PM
  #355
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
draft position, age, production, talent, and salary were all used.

you want to ignore all of them but one.

but your use of smilies is a particularly good argument, I have to say.
Draft position....yeah, great argument. Do you judge Datsyuk based off his draft postition??

Age, uh...O'Reilly is younger by a couple of months.

Production? Umm...55 points, leading the league in takeaways, right over here. Jake Gardiner is over there with his 30 points.

Talent...umm, good offensively, elite defensively...I think O'Reilly has a ton of talent, thanks.

Salary, ok, you win one of your arguments. Good job. Might have something to do with the fact that he made the NHL at 18 though, eh?

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02-13-2013, 10:47 PM
  #356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zeke View Post
draft position, age, production, talent, and salary were all used.

you want to ignore all of them but one.

but your use of smilies is a particularly good argument, I have to say.
Don't know why draft position has anything to do with it...

Age? He's 22 and has 3 years experience, I'd say that's in his favor. Talent? Selke like defense and good playmaking... Production? First two years he was used as a third line center and rarely saw pp minutes and then last year he gets his opportunity and produces in the tweener 1st/2nd line center range.

And his salary won't be over 5 million so that seems somewhat reasonable.

What was your point again? He's not a star nor will he be a top 10 scorer in the league anytime soon, but it's not like the Avs are demanding a kings ransom

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02-13-2013, 10:48 PM
  #357
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Originally Posted by Avs44 View Post
You pretty much lost all credibility as soon as you tried to use draft position to justify your position. Oh, and gotta love the poor skating vs elite skating argument. You heard it here first guys, we only look at skating to assess value Mason Raymond. You are one hell of a valuable player.


Like I've been saying for a while. If O'Reilly was a top 10 pick, he would get far more respect around here. Luckily GMs in real life are not dumb enough to assess a player based off where they were drafted.
Whoa whoa whoa...no need to slander Canadian superstar Mason Raymond...at this point he'd be your 3rd leading scorer (both goals and points).

I think its fair to use draft position to justify a player's value right after their draft (like Reilly) and maybe a little longer if the person is showing normal progress for a guy like Gardiner his value is demonstrated more by the fact that he would have been your leading scoring defenseman last year.

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02-13-2013, 10:50 PM
  #358
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
Whoa whoa whoa...no need to slander Canadian superstar Mason Raymond...at this point he'd be your 3rd leading scorer (both goals and points).

I think its fair to use draft position to justify a player's value right after their draft (like Reilly) and maybe a little longer if the person is showing normal progress for a guy like Gardiner his value is demonstrated more by the fact that he would have been your leading scoring defenseman last year.
No, the problem I had was that he was comparing Gardiner to O'Reilly by somehow saying Gardiner had more value in part because he was drafted higher.

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02-13-2013, 10:55 PM
  #359
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
Whoa whoa whoa...no need to slander Canadian superstar Mason Raymond...at this point he'd be your 3rd leading scorer (both goals and points).

I think its fair to use draft position to justify a player's value right after their draft (like Reilly) and maybe a little longer if the person is showing normal progress for a guy like Gardiner his value is demonstrated more by the fact that he would have been your leading scoring defenseman last year.
We suck, rub it in why don't ya.

And its not about Gardiner's draft position, its about O'Reilly's. People bring it up acting like its relevant in his value, its not (if there were a redraft he'd be top 10)

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02-13-2013, 10:58 PM
  #360
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Originally Posted by Rockies94 View Post
We suck, rub it in why don't ya.

And its not about Gardiner's draft position, its about O'Reilly's. People bring it up acting like its relevant in his value, its not (if there were a redraft he'd be top 10)
Don't feel bad about the Raymond bit...I had a good chuckle over it. He is the Canucks' 3rd leading goal scorer as well.

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02-13-2013, 11:00 PM
  #361
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Originally Posted by Avs44 View Post
Draft position....yeah, great argument. Do you judge Datsyuk based off his draft postition??

Age, uh...O'Reilly is younger by a couple of months.

Production? Umm...55 points, leading the league in takeaways, right over here. Jake Gardiner is over there with his 30 points.

Talent...umm, good offensively, elite defensively...I think O'Reilly has a ton of talent, thanks.

Salary, ok, you win one of your arguments. Good job. Might have something to do with the fact that he made the NHL at 18 though, eh?
Draft position is one way to help us evaluate toolsiness of players without just resorting to subjective opiniion. in this case it's just further evidence of how pro scouts view his skating and other tools.

age helps establish that there is no edge either wsy in that department. i could have brought up experience - i.e. that jake performed as well or better than ryan last year, even though he was just a rookie, but i didn't.

production shows that jake actually had the advantage relative to position.

skating shows jake being elite in this most important skillset, while ryan is subpar.

In short, jake was as good or better than ryan at the same age last year, even though it was his rookie year. his raw talent also indicates moe upside. to top it off, he's going to cost 1/5th of ryan's salary.

it would be very silly for the leafs to trade gardiner for o'rielly one for one.

especially since unless he takes his second big jump in performance in as many years, he's not even a clear upgrade on what the leafs already have at center.


Last edited by zeke: 02-13-2013 at 11:05 PM.
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02-13-2013, 11:06 PM
  #362
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
Draft position is one way to help us evaluate toolsiness of players without just resorting to subjective opiniion. in this case it's just further evidence of how pro scouts view his skating and other tools.

age helps establish that there is no edge either wsy in that department. i could have brought up experience - i.e. that jake performed as well or better than ryan last year, even though he was just a rookie, but i didn't.

production shows that jake actually had the advantage relative to position.

skating shows jake being elite in this most important skillset, while ryan is subpar.

In short, jake was as good or better than ryan at the same age last year, even though it was his rookie year. his raw talent also indicates moe upside. to top it off, he's going to cost 1/5th of ryan's salary.

it would be very silly for the leafs to trade gardiner for o'rielly one for one.
Draft position is irrelevant. It no longer matters after 3 years in the league. No one cares where guys like Datsyuk or Zetterberg were drafted now....some great players were drafted late. It means nothing. Stop embarrassing yourself by bringing it up.


There is now way Gardiner performed better, so I'm glad you didn't embarrass yourself and say he did.


No it did not. I'll take the 55 point center elite defensively center over the 30 point defensman in terms of production everyday.


You make claims like Gardiner was as good or better than O'Reilly last season...but offer nothing to back it up. Production? O'Reilly wins. Age? O'Reilly has a slight edge. Skating? How does that make Gardiner better? Raw talent? You're basing this off of your opinion. A very biased one quite clearly, and you use pathetic arguments like draft position to back it up. Whatever, carry on. I'm done talking to you. Keep pretending you actually know what you're talking about. And what is with your spelling...I don't care if you're on your phone...how did you come up with "toolsiness"

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02-13-2013, 11:06 PM
  #363
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zeke View Post
Draft position is one way to help us evaluate toolsiness of players without just resorting to subjective opiniion. in this case it's just further evidence of how pro scouts view his skating and other tools.

age helps establish that there is no edge either wsy in that department. i could have brought up experience - i.e. that jake performed as well or better than ryan last year, even though he was just a rookie, but i didn't.

production shows that jake actually had the advantage relative to position.

skating shows jake being elite in this most important skillset, while ryan is subpar.

In short, jake was as good or better than ryan at the same age last year, even though it was his rookie year. his raw talent also indicates moe upside. to top it off, he's going to cost 1/5th of ryan's salary.

it would be very silly for the leafs to trade gardiner for o'rielly one for one.
Slow down there bud

And there is no way in hell a pro scout needs draft positon to evaluate a player.

Jake didn't play better than O'Reilly last year (and he's older so )

Skating is not the most important skillset, I'm sure most would agree its IQ.

And no there's a reason all your leaf bretheren are offering up Garderner for O'Reilly without hesitation.

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02-13-2013, 11:08 PM
  #364
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Gardiner is still somewhat of a work in progress defensively while Ryan is a complete player who excels at both ends of the ice. Does it make me nervous a bit as a Leafs fan the offensive production from the first two yeard of his career, yes, but he just fill such a need that Jake would be a logical sacrificial lamb given the potential replacements in the pipeline in the system already (Reily,Finn,Percy and to a much much lesser extent Blacker). I am just as high on Gardiner as the next guy but to say hes better relative to his position is just false in my eyes. I would mourn his loss but celebrate O'Reily insertion as a key building block going forward in our Carlyle style defensive mindset....seems a fit to me. Gardiner and a guy like Macarthur/mid pic/Colborne might make sense..

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02-13-2013, 11:11 PM
  #365
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There are some high thoughts for O'Reilly in here. Compare him to Duchene please, I'm curious.

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02-13-2013, 11:20 PM
  #366
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We suck, rub it in why don't ya.

And its not about Gardiner's draft position, its about O'Reilly's. People bring it up acting like its relevant in his value, its not (if there were a redraft he'd be top 10)
The MayRay part was completely tongue in cheek ("Canadian superstar") he's actually doing well right now, back to 25 goal, 55 point pace for the first time in a couple of seasons.

I think most people value ROR much higher than his draft position and most people are correct that draft position is irrelevant when compared to what someone has proven at the NHL level. Its like your GPA until you get a real job.

I'm sure its been discussed but would the Avs absolutely match a 1 year $4.5-5m offersheet? More or less likely if more long term?

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02-13-2013, 11:25 PM
  #367
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There are some high thoughts for O'Reilly in here. Compare him to Duchene please, I'm curious.
O'Reilly is greedy. Duchene is not.

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02-13-2013, 11:25 PM
  #368
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There are some high thoughts for O'Reilly in here. Compare him to Duchene please, I'm curious.
He's a better all around player, but Duchene skates as well as any forward in the league. If Duchene puts it together, he's got that 80-90 point potential that ROR doesn't have. But at this point of their careers... last minute of the period, I put ROR on the ice over Duchene. Period. No questions asked.

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02-13-2013, 11:26 PM
  #369
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I'm sure its been discussed but would the Avs absolutely match a 1 year $4.5-5m offersheet? More or less likely if more long term?
Less likely for a year. That puts his QO insanely high.

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02-13-2013, 11:28 PM
  #370
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There are some high thoughts for O'Reilly in here. Compare him to Duchene please, I'm curious.
2 Totally different players:

Duchene is a high-skilled, soft hands, elite skater, playmaker, becoming better at faceoffs and defensive zone responsibilities. Has the upside of a 75-85pts, all-star caliber #1 center.

O'Reilly is a average skilled, blue collar, elite level hard worker, great defensively, average skater (but by no means bad), nothing fancy kind of guy. Always makes the right plays. He is the guy you want out there at the end of the game to win a faceoff in your own end up one. Has the upside of being a #2 center capable of being a Selke candidate every year and can probably get you anywhere from 45-65pts (mainly assists, don't see him topping much higher than 25 goals ever) dependent on linemates.

So basically 2 completely different players. Its tough to say which is better because of this. I would love to have both but obviously O'Reilly has decided he rather die than play for the Avs.

Personally if I had to choose between one or the other to build around I would go with Duchene mainly because people with type of skills are way tougher to find. There aren't too many players capable of 75+ points on a year in year out basis. But many Avs fans would probably say they'd rather build around O'Reilly, it really just comes down to personal preference.

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02-13-2013, 11:28 PM
  #371
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If the Oilers weren't in the same division id make an offer but because we do, O'Reilly in Edmonton is a major pipe dream.

Man he could be an awesome 2C for us...

Still hoping he comes to his senses and signs.

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02-13-2013, 11:30 PM
  #372
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O'Reilly is greedy. Duchene is not.
Eh, O'Reilly's goals versus salary indicate that he should be worth a cool ~4M. Throw in his defensive play on top of that and it's not O'Reilly being greedy so much as it's Avalanche management being cheap.

If the going price really is $5M, and the Avs can't or won't match that...

Welp.

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02-13-2013, 11:32 PM
  #373
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Eh, O'Reilly's goals versus salary indicate that he should be worth a cool ~4M. Throw in his defensive play on top of that and it's not O'Reilly being greedy so much as it's Avalanche management being cheap.

If the going price really is $5M, and the Avs can't or won't match that...

Welp.
Subban and Del Zotto say hi.

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02-13-2013, 11:32 PM
  #374
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There are some high thoughts for O'Reilly in here. Compare him to Duchene please, I'm curious.
duchene is faster, more skilled and just completely better on offense. he is solid defensively and is decent on the PK as well.

RoR is great defensively, really great. hes pretty good offensively when he is put in that role, good on the PP and PK. apparently a good leader.

then you have their personalities. RoR is greedy while Duchene is not. Duchene cares about his team and constantly tries to put them on his back, takes hometown discounts ect. while RoR is supposed to be a team first guy, but instead he is doing all this ****.

I would take Duchene 10/10 times and not even think twice about it.

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02-13-2013, 11:32 PM
  #375
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Originally Posted by WornWithPride View Post
I'm always tentative when leafs fan go from ''Untoucheable'' (Last year) to trade him (very next year). I figure there's something to it.

That being said, A big body offensive dman is a very good start. MacArthur has been trending downwards since half way through last year...

I don't know, the fact I'm not jumping on/off this deal makes me feel like it's fair. previously mention too... many times
I can honestly assure you the only reason I'm even open to the possibility of moving Gardiner is because we have Morgan Rielly in the system who does exactly what Gardiner does, but has a higher ceiling.

He's healthy now and just getting his legs under him with the Marlies. He'll be back within no time.

I think as far as needs go, this is a great deal for you guys.

I'm not so dead set on moving Bozak. He's a fit alongside Kessel and is a good two-way player for us. The reason for acquiring O'Reilly is so we're deep at C. Moving Bozak, who is best friends with our best player in Kessel, is redundant.

MacArthur hasn't really trended downwards. He's 2nd line forward who'll give you 20 goals. He's played well lately.

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