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ATD 2013 Lineup Advice Thread

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Old
02-28-2013, 11:23 PM
  #226
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
I was really surprised looking through the numbers from he and Joliat in the playoffs.

Did teams pay extra attention to them come playoff time? I really don't know.
None of the late 20s/early 30s stars has good playoff numbers; probably related to the two conference winners facing each other in the first round, while the other 4 teams that made the playoffs had a a mini-tournament for the other finals spot.

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02-28-2013, 11:24 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
I was really surprised looking through the numbers from he and Joliat in the playoffs.

Did teams pay extra attention to them come playoff time? I really don't know.
Considering that this was during the "starters and subs" era, it is hard to imagine how they could have. Ok, we know that Victoria rolled lines against the Habs in the 1925 Cup series in order to check Morenz, but he struggled quite a bit in the NHL playoffs later on, as well. I can't say why.

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02-28-2013, 11:24 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
None of the early 30s stars has good playoff numbers; probably related to the two conference winners facing each other in the first round, while the other 4 teams that made the playoffs had a a mini-tournament for the other finals spot.
Frank Boucher, Charlie Conacher and Marty Barry say hi.

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02-28-2013, 11:25 PM
  #229
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Frank Boucher, Charlie Conacher and Marty Barry say hi.
Hi Frank Boucher! I specifically said early 30s to exclude Marty Barry, and none of the Kid Line had particularly great numbers in the playoffs.

Even Boucher was kind of hit or miss. Barry was pretty unique in having consistently strong numbers in the playoffs, but he didn't do it until the late 30s.

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02-28-2013, 11:28 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Considering that this was during the "starters and subs" era, it is hard to imagine how they could have. Ok, we know that Victoria rolled lines against the Habs in the 1925 Cup series in order to check Morenz, but he struggled quite a bit in the NHL playoffs later on, as well. I can't say why.
From what I've been able to read, Morenz was just snake-bitten in 1930 and 1931. He was playing well, but not finding the net.

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02-28-2013, 11:31 PM
  #231
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Hi Frank Boucher! I specifically said early 30s to exclude Marty Barry, and none of the Kid Line had particularly great numbers in the playoffs.

Even Boucher was kind of hit or miss. Barry was pretty unique in having consistently strong numbers in the playoffs, but he didn't do it until the late 30s.
Almost everybody was hit or miss in that era because of the format and the vogue of super-defensive kitty-bar-the-door playoff hockey. You're right about that. Nevertheless, there were better and worse playoff performers in that period, as there are in every era. We can't just whitewash everyone's playoff record because some people struggled.

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02-28-2013, 11:42 PM
  #232
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Mike Babcock, coach


John Tonelli, LW- Mario Lemieux, C-Rick Middleton, RW
John LeClair, LW- Mats Sundin, C- Alex Mogilny, RW
Gaye Stewart LW-Dale Hunter, C-Tod Sloan RW
xxxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxxxx- xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxx


Valeri Vasiliev, D -Guy Lapointe, D
Randy Carlyle, D- Shea Weber, D
xxxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxx

Johnny Bower, G

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Old
02-28-2013, 11:48 PM
  #233
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
Mike Babcock, coach


John Tonelli, LW- Mario Lemieux, C-Rick Middleton, RW
John LeClair, LW- Mats Sundin, C- Alex Mogilny, RW
Gaye Stewart LW-Dale Hunter, C-Tod Sloan RW
xxxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxxxx- xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxx


Valeri Vasiliev, D -Guy Lapointe, D
Randy Carlyle, D- Shea Weber, D
xxxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxx

Johnny Bower, G
I don't know if this is the draft that you started paying attention to consensus opinions on players rather than doing your own thing, or if it's just dumb luck, but this is actually a pretty strong team.

2 main things strike me:

1) I would definitely move either Carlyle or Weber to the bottom pairing - both are guys who are best with a stay at home partner. That's the biggest one.

2) I would probably switch LeClair and Tonelli to give Mario someone better to pass the puck to. Ideally, you'd give Mario a bodyguard, but none of your wings are that type of player, so I'd just go with the puckwinner who is the better scorer. It hurts the offensive output of the second line, but I don't know if Sundin is the best guy to get the most out of LeClair anyway.

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02-28-2013, 11:52 PM
  #234
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I don't know if this is the draft that you started paying attention to consensus opinions on players rather than doing your own thing, or if it's just dumb luck, but this is actually a pretty strong team.

2 main things strike me:

1) I would definitely move either Carlyle or Weber to the bottom pairing - both are guys who are best with a stay at home partner. That's the biggest one.

2) I would probably switch LeClair and Tonelli to give Mario someone better to pass the puck to. Ideally, you'd give Mario a bodyguard, but none of your wings are that type of player, so I'd just go with the puckwinner who is the better scorer. It hurts the offensive output of the second line, but I don't know if Sundin is the best guy to get the most out of LeClair anyway.
thanks

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Old
02-28-2013, 11:59 PM
  #235
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
... but this is actually a pretty strong team.

2 main things strike me:

1) I would definitely move either Carlyle or Weber to the bottom pairing - both are guys who are best with a stay at home partner. That's the biggest one.

2) I would probably switch LeClair and Tonelli to give Mario someone better to pass the puck to. Ideally, you'd give Mario a bodyguard, but none of your wings are that type of player, so I'd just go with the puckwinner who is the better scorer. It hurts the offensive output of the second line, but I don't know if Sundin is the best guy to get the most out of LeClair anyway.
Agreed. I meant to post the part about a pretty strong team before when I was looking at your roster, but I didn't. Sorry. I usually don't agree 100% with posts in the advice thread, but I think TDMM's point are spot on.

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Old
03-01-2013, 12:01 AM
  #236
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A big time, competitive line-up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
John Tonelli, LW- Mario Lemieux, C-Rick Middleton, RW
John LeClair, LW- Mats Sundin, C- Alex Mogilny, RW
Gaye Stewart LW-Dale Hunter, C-Tod Sloan RW
Nice lines. One of the best top-9 forward line-ups you've ever iced LL imo!

With Mario and Ricky dancing with the puck, I can see Tonelli grunting better along the boards. Size on the second line ought to give open ice for Mogilny to dance.

I'm not a big Mogilny fan. He may have scored 50+ goals 100+ points as a Canuck but we booed him at GM Place for his less than stellar effort. He could have been so much more... But on a line with two mammoths he needn't go into traffic, just get open.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
Valeri Vasiliev, D -Guy Lapointe, D
Randy Carlyle, D- Shea Weber, D

Johnny Bower, G
Definitely TOUGH! I caught Lapointe at the tail end of his career so have been less than impressed by him, thinking him less than Robinson and Savard by a significant degree, discounting too much the early years before I saw him play. Certainly he is surrounded by competitors on the blueline here that bring whatever physicality he may not have brought.

Weber has not not proven himself reliable enough for top-3 all-time duty, nor is Carlyle puck skilled enough, but together? A decent enough second pairing, not ideal though. Shot blocking and shot taking, hustle and size, hard work all around. Even during a bad game, those two looked pretty good. The first pass ain't gonna be as crisp or swift as Sundin or Mogilny would like. Get another puck mover to put on the 2nd pairing ideally.

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Old
03-01-2013, 12:37 AM
  #237
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
He goes from 0.70 ppg in the regular season to 0.53 ppg in the play-offs. That's a drop of about 25%.

The scoring rated of that era dropped by about 33% during Joliat's era, so his production, compared to the league average scoring levels, actually goes up in the play-offs.
Yeah, compared to league average scoring levels. This is a guy who is picked in the top 100 of the best hockey players ever, should I really be impressed that he is 8% better than the average in the playoffs? Doesn't seem impressive to me. I don't have anything against Joliat, but that doesn't make him look good in the playoffs in my opinion.

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03-01-2013, 12:43 AM
  #238
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post

With Mario and Ricky dancing with the puck, I can see Tonelli grunting better along the boards. Size on the second line ought to give open ice for Mogilny to dance.

I'm not a big Mogilny fan. He may have scored 50+ goals 100+ points as a Canuck but we booed him at GM Place for his less than stellar effort. He could have been so much more... But on a line with two mammoths he needn't go into traffic, just get open.
Last draft, arrbez sold Mogilny as a guy who needed a center who was fast enough to keep up with him in order to produce, and Sundin really isn't that fast. I dunno - obviously he played with Sundin in real life for a few years, but those weren't really all-time great seasons.


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03-01-2013, 04:06 AM
  #239
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Yeah, compared to league average scoring levels. This is a guy who is picked in the top 100 of the best hockey players ever, should I really be impressed that he is 8% better than the average in the playoffs? Doesn't seem impressive to me. I don't have anything against Joliat, but that doesn't make him look good in the playoffs in my opinion.
You're not understanding the math.

His scoring levels do not drop to the league average in the play-offs.
His scoring levels do drop by the league average in the play-offs.


Anybody looking for an excellent example of this play-off drop, look no further than Ted Kennedy. He is known as one of the all-time play-offs performers, so I'm sure it would surprise most people to learn that his scoring rate goes down in the playoffs. They only drop by about 5%, but that's still a drop, which, I think, perfectly illustrates how even an apparent drop in scoring in the play-offs may not actually indicate a weak scoring record.


Last edited by Dreakmur: 03-01-2013 at 04:33 AM.
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Old
03-01-2013, 11:09 AM
  #240
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
You're not understanding the math.

His scoring levels do not drop to the league average in the play-offs.
His scoring levels do drop by the league average in the play-offs.


Anybody looking for an excellent example of this play-off drop, look no further than Ted Kennedy. He is known as one of the all-time play-offs performers, so I'm sure it would surprise most people to learn that his scoring rate goes down in the playoffs. They only drop by about 5%, but that's still a drop, which, I think, perfectly illustrates how even an apparent drop in scoring in the play-offs may not actually indicate a weak scoring record.
Lalonde's PPG drops by 30.3% in the playoffs. Going back to our discussion in ATD2011, you stated that this was the metric you used when evaluating playoff performance:

Quote:
The first thing to do is go on a per game basis. That eliminates the advantage that players get simply by playing more games.

I look at a players regular season PPG and compare that to their play-off PPG. I then take into account that most eras are lower scoring than the regular season.
-if they score at the same rate or slightly below, then I view that as them just playing like they always did.
-if they score at a significantly lower pace, then I view that as them perfroming poorly.
-if they score significantly more, then I view that as them performing well.

In a series like this, I look at what the player was in the regular season, then figure out if he's better, worse, or about the same.

Example:
Jari Kurri is better in the play-offs than regular season. Andy Bathgate is about the same as regular season. Since I have Bathgate clearly ahead in regular season, Kurri closes the gap a little bit in the play-offs, and the difference becomes "narrow".
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=914625

I'd argue that scoring at the same pace means that they are good playoff performers, and if they score above their regular pace, then they are very good playoff performers.

Applying this logic, that would make Joliat a poor playoff performer, no? 30% is a pretty significant drop.

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03-01-2013, 11:26 AM
  #241
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
I'd argue that scoring at the same pace means that they are good playoff performers, and if they score above their regular pace, then they are very good playoff performers.
I think a lot of this is dictated by the matchups.

Scoring in the playoffs is generally harder because the absolute worst teams get chopped off the average when their regular season ends but there have been times when lots of bad teams made the playoffs.

ie. during the 21 team era where guys like Kurri and XXXXX (caught myself!) get noted for their production going up.

You almost have to look in detail at the matchups to get a good sense I think.

If you are in the Patrick division in the 80s you have different circumstances than in the Smythe division or whatever for example. I'm not sure how much averages are going to describe it.

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03-01-2013, 11:29 AM
  #242
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Lalonde's PPG drops by 30.3% in the playoffs. Going back to our discussion in ATD2011, you stated that this was the metric you used when evaluating playoff performance:



http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=914625

I'd argue that scoring at the same pace means that they are good playoff performers, and if they score above their regular pace, then they are very good playoff performers.

Applying this logic, that would make Joliat a poor playoff performer, no? 30% is a pretty significant drop.
No.

As I said in that post, I take into account that scoring generally goes down significantly in the play-offs. If a players number go down, but not significantly more than their era's league-wide average, why would we think they were poor?

Joliat's offensive numbers are consistent with league-wide scoring levels in the regular season and in the play-offs. Basically, his play-offs are no better or worse than his regular seasons, which means we won't get better or worse in a play-off series.

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Old
03-01-2013, 11:54 AM
  #243
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Sundin was much q7icker in his first doxen seasons then in his last 5 yrs

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03-02-2013, 02:17 PM
  #244
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The Fireworks are considering the following lineup change:

Ted Lindsay - Henrik Sedin - Charlie Conacher
Harry Watson - Denis Savard - Bobby Rousseau
XXXXXXX - Ted Kennedy - XXXXXXXX

We realize Henrik is a weak first line center, but pairing him with one of the best combination of wingers in the ATD he will fit very nicely.

Savard as mentioned can create a lot of offense by himself, but will be flanked by Watson who will do the dirty work in the corners, play solid defensively as well as chip in some goals. Rousseau will also be another solid defensive presence on the line as well as shown by his VS2 numbers will contribute offensively as well.

Obviously Ted kennedy will be the top 3rd line Center in this thing and will be the start to a 2-way third line.

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03-02-2013, 02:39 PM
  #245
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Obviously Ted kennedy will be the top 3rd line Center in this thing and will be the start to a 2-way third line.
He'll likely be the best player on a 3rd line, but I don't think you'll be able to build an good checking line around him at this point in the draft. His defensive game isn't very well-established. Aside from face-offs, I've seen very little written about his defensive abilities. All of the best checking wingers are gone. All of the best two-way wingers are gone.

I think you should just leave your line-up the way you had it originally.

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03-02-2013, 02:42 PM
  #246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
The Fireworks are considering the following lineup change:

Ted Lindsay - Henrik Sedin - Charlie Conacher
Harry Watson - Denis Savard - Bobby Rousseau
XXXXXXX - Ted Kennedy - XXXXXXXX

We realize Henrik is a weak first line center, but pairing him with one of the best combination of wingers in the ATD he will fit very nicely.

Savard as mentioned can create a lot of offense by himself, but will be flanked by Watson who will do the dirty work in the corners, play solid defensively as well as chip in some goals. Rousseau will also be another solid defensive presence on the line as well as shown by his VS2 numbers will contribute offensively as well.

Obviously Ted kennedy will be the top 3rd line Center in this thing and will be the start to a 2-way third line.
I would love to see the minute chart of those players. Ted Kennedy on the third looks liek a waste. Your second line is underwhelming offensively. It depends on your strategy I guess. It's kinda hard at this point to select players that will complement Kennedy well on both side of the ice, because with those line I would assume that the Kennedy line would be 2nd in ice-time on the ES. Maybe try something like this:

Ted Lindsay - Henrik Sedin - Charlie Conacher
XXXXXXX - Ted Kennedy - Bobby Rousseau
Harry Watson - Denis Savard - XXXXXXXX

And try to find a gem on the left side that can play well at both side of the ice. Perhaps Harry Watson is this player, but I'm unsure. Your second line would be your defensive line.

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03-02-2013, 02:50 PM
  #247
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
He'll likely be the best player on a 3rd line, but I don't think you'll be able to build an good checking line around him at this point in the draft. His defensive game isn't very well-established. Aside from face-offs, I've seen very little written about his defensive abilities. All of the best checking wingers are gone. All of the best two-way wingers are gone.

I think you should just leave your line-up the way you had it originally.
Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
I would love to see the minute chart of those players. Ted Kennedy on the third looks liek a waste. Your second line is underwhelming offensively. It depends on your strategy I guess. It's kinda hard at this point to select players that will complement Kennedy well on both side of the ice, because with those line I would assume that the Kennedy line would be 2nd in ice-time on the ES. Maybe try something like this:

Ted Lindsay - Henrik Sedin - Charlie Conacher
XXXXXXX - Ted Kennedy - Bobby Rousseau
Harry Watson - Denis Savard - XXXXXXXX

And try to find a gem on the left side that can play well at both side of the ice. Perhaps Harry Watson is this player, but I'm unsure. Your second line would be your defensive line.

Thanks for the advice. It's a really interesting spot i'm in right now, I really have 5 or 6 ways I could structure the lines. My upcoming picks could go in any direction.

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03-02-2013, 04:16 PM
  #248
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Henrik Sedin on the first line

Wasting all Savard's potential because you're stuck with the reality that you can't draft any wingers that'll make a 3rd line with Sedin competant


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03-02-2013, 04:27 PM
  #249
markrander87
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Originally Posted by Jafar View Post
Henrik Sedin on the first line

Wasting all Savard's potential because you're stuck with the reality that you can't draft any wingers that'll make a 3rd line with Sedin competant

Such a hassle having 2 Centerman who are more then capable of having a spot next to a guy like Charlie Conacher on a 2nd line.

Or potentially having the luxury of placing Ted Kennedy on a 2nd or even 3rd line. My team is in so much trouble

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03-02-2013, 04:46 PM
  #250
tony d
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Got my top 9 drafted was wondering if this is the way I should go with my top 3 lines:

Denneny-Clarke-Gilbert
Prentice-Oates-Bondra
Parise-Sutter- Graham

Also my Power Play as of now:

PP 1: Denneny, Oates, Gilbert, Suchy, Horton
PP 2: Prentice, Clarke, Bondra, Hartsburg, Horner

PK 1: Prentice, Sutter, Horton, Smith
PK 2: Graham, Clarke, Horner, Suchy

All suggestions are welcome.

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