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Ryan O'Reilly : The Return [no, not that kind of return :(]; Thread 5

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Old
02-16-2013, 10:27 AM
  #251
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubba Thudd View Post
I've asked this before, but didn't get replies...

If ROR were to fire his agency, do you think they could start anew, with both parties able to save face?
Unless he were to fire his agency because he found out that his Agent wasn't telling him the truth when it came to the Negotiations w/ the Avalanche, I wouldn't think that firing Newport would change anything in at least Ryan's eyes.

The Avalanche, despite it being "business" apparently said something that personally offended O'Reilly, and I'm at a loss for words at how knowing/working with someone like him for 3 years would cause them to take the chance of whatever it was not offending him.

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02-16-2013, 10:29 AM
  #252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoundwaveIsCharisma View Post
I'm going to laugh so hard if ROR re-signs with the Avs for a reasonable price, and it gets leaked that plenty of teams were interested...then they talked to his agent and said "screw it, not worth the headache".
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Don't hold your breath.
Like volaju said , i wouldnt bet my house on it . Like TPS said, both side are acting like children and in a negociation that's probably the worst case scenario. Plus, you add the crazy Twitter dad in the middle of this ( My God, if i had to bring my dad in the middle of my problems at the office, i would have lost my job by now ) .That whole thing is rotten for a long time now and i dont see any happy ending in the future and the longer it takes worst it will get.

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02-16-2013, 10:33 AM
  #253
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I would think at this point the only thing that could change things is Avalanche approaching O'Reilly and being willing to mend fences. Call it apologizing if you want.

And the chance our front office choosing that path is probably close to zero. They'll trade him and rationalize it with the player being difficult, most likely learning nothing in the process.

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02-16-2013, 10:37 AM
  #254
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I think I've finally found a way to word my reasoning for being on O'Reilly's side in this negotiation. I will attempt to put those words here.

So, essentially the 2 year 7 million dollar offer is supposed to tell O'Reilly that the Avalanche management either A) Don't value O'Reilly above Duchene or B) Even if they did, they sure as hell won't pay him more than Duchene.

The problem I have with that logic is this. If Matt had signed a contract that was say, 2 years 8 million. We all would have still thought that it was a good deal, because based on his first 2 seasons of play, and the contracts that other players were signing (Tavares, Seguin, Myers, etc) it would have still been a great contract.

So by using the logic that the Avalanche have apparently dictated for themselves, they are fine paying O'Reilly whatever Duchene makes (something I still feel shouldn't be at play in this negotiation) and because Matt signed a GREAT deal for the Team, they want Ryan to take the same one...even though they apparently are fine paying him whatever Matt would have signed (had he rejected the 2yr 7m offer)

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02-16-2013, 10:42 AM
  #255
Bubba Thudd
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But they could both blame the agency, absolving themselves of being the problem.

Sherm: Hey Ryan, I'm glad that Guy is out of the way. Can we talk?
ROR: Hey Greg. Yeah, that guy was a real wad. What's up?


**and avaland rejoiced**

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02-16-2013, 10:45 AM
  #256
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockLobster View Post
I think I've finally found a way to word my reasoning for being on O'Reilly's side in this negotiation. I will attempt to put those words here.

So, essentially the 2 year 7 million dollar offer is supposed to tell O'Reilly that the Avalanche management either A) Don't value O'Reilly above Duchene or B) Even if they did, they sure as hell won't pay him more than Duchene.

The problem I have with that logic is this. If Matt had signed a contract that was say, 2 years 8 million. We all would have still thought that it was a good deal, because based on his first 2 seasons of play, and the contracts that other players were signing (Tavares, Seguin, Myers, etc) it would have still been a great contract.

So by using the logic that the Avalanche have apparently dictated for themselves, they are fine paying O'Reilly whatever Duchene makes (something I still feel shouldn't be at play in this negotiation) and because Matt signed a GREAT deal for the Team, they want Ryan to take the same one...even though they apparently are fine paying him whatever Matt would have signed (had he rejected the 2yr 7m offer)
Is Matt getting 3.5 per year?

If so, make ROR's 3M and 4M. Matt makes more the 1st year, ROR makes more the 2nd year. And ROR is set up better when the next deal is negotiated.

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02-16-2013, 10:50 AM
  #257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubba Thudd View Post
Is Matt getting 3.5 per year?

If so, make ROR's 3M and 4M. Matt makes more the 1st year, ROR makes more the 2nd year. And ROR is set up better when the next deal is negotiated.
I don't know how it breaks down, just that it's AAV is 3.5m

But I just feel that the Avs' logic on this is dumb. Because IF Matt had signed a larger deal, then they would have offered more. Something I'm sure that they are aware of.

I still feel that whatever Matt Duchene signed for shouldn't really play a role in this negotiation. I understand that it is, but I just feel that it shouldn't

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02-16-2013, 11:01 AM
  #258
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockLobster View Post
I don't know how it breaks down, just that it's AAV is 3.5m

But I just feel that the Avs' logic on this is dumb. Because IF Matt had signed a larger deal, then they would have offered more. Something I'm sure that they are aware of.

I still feel that whatever Matt Duchene signed for shouldn't really play a role in this negotiation. I understand that it is, but I just feel that it shouldn't
So, are they teaching the young players to NOT sign a team friendly deal, because it could cost your teammate his place on the team if he doesn't also take the discount?

Hmmm...

EDIT: on the other hand, though, if ROR thinks he deserves more than Matt because of last year, then it wouldn't matter if Matt had gotten 8M/2. ROR would want more...

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02-16-2013, 11:04 AM
  #259
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubba Thudd View Post
So, are they teaching the young players to NOT sign a team friendly deal, because it could cost your teammate his place on the team if he doesn't also take the discount?

Hmmm...

EDIT: on the other hand, though, if ROR thinks he deserves more than Matt because of last year, then it wouldn't matter if Matt had gotten 8M/2. ROR would want more...
It's not that 2yr 7m is a Team Friendly deal, it is, but so would 2yr 8m, that would have also been a team friendly deal.

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02-16-2013, 11:04 AM
  #260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockLobster View Post
I think I've finally found a way to word my reasoning for being on O'Reilly's side in this negotiation. I will attempt to put those words here.

So, essentially the 2 year 7 million dollar offer is supposed to tell O'Reilly that the Avalanche management either A) Don't value O'Reilly above Duchene or B) Even if they did, they sure as hell won't pay him more than Duchene.

The problem I have with that logic is this. If Matt had signed a contract that was say, 2 years 8 million. We all would have still thought that it was a good deal, because based on his first 2 seasons of play, and the contracts that other players were signing (Tavares, Seguin, Myers, etc) it would have still been a great contract.

So by using the logic that the Avalanche have apparently dictated for themselves, they are fine paying O'Reilly whatever Duchene makes (something I still feel shouldn't be at play in this negotiation) and because Matt signed a GREAT deal for the Team, they want Ryan to take the same one...even though they apparently are fine paying him whatever Matt would have signed (had he rejected the 2yr 7m offer)
I think there are a lot of dynamics that are complicating the situation. The Avs wanting him to sign where Duchene did is just one small piece of this puzzle.

You also have the apparent insults that happened (weather the reaction is justified or not, I don't know). There is also the idea that O'Reilly could have been pissed he wasn't named captain, and the idea he may want to go to a team where he can have a larger role.

I also suspect, at least in the back of my mind, that the Avs could be using the situation to move assets from a deep center position to the wings or defense and use the holdout to lessen fan backlash when they trade a young fan favorite. But that is pure speculation on my part.

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02-16-2013, 11:19 AM
  #261
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I know you have to give to get that being said what do you guys think about a deal built around John Carlson? It'd be risky for the caps but I'm still curious

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02-16-2013, 11:19 AM
  #262
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JMO,
it seems to me that the Avs went the wrong direction with a long term deal. While I understand the idea with longer term=more guaranteed money and so often the $/yr is less...

If I were the FO and felt that ROR was a core piece of this team who would be our future #2C for the years to come (my opinion not the AVS necessarily) and a leader among the young team being built, why not offer him the long term (6+yrs) at something closer to 4-4.5m/yr?

There is a risk of him not being a 60+pt player, but assuming he is even a 45+pt player who is one of the top defensive centers in the game, in two years (when the bridge contract ended) his Market Value would be at or above the 4m/yr he'd be getting paid on the long term deal.

I know that there is a risk in long term deals, but basically I see it as saving money long term while showing a commitment to a guy who is part of the core of your team's future.

If ROR was wanting 5m/yr long term in the beginning, then I understand the FO not dealing, but it seems 4m/yr long term would have been a good middle to negotiate around not going the other way with 3.4m.

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02-16-2013, 11:22 AM
  #263
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Originally Posted by NeilYoung View Post
I know you have to give to get that being said what do you guys think about a deal built around John Carlson? It'd be risky for the caps but I'm still curious
I like Carlson, but the problem is that he's a RHD, isn't he? We really need a LHD to go with EJ.

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02-16-2013, 11:27 AM
  #264
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Originally Posted by Bubba Thudd View Post
I like Carlson, but the problem is that he's a RHD, isn't he? We really need a LHD to go with EJ.
I'd still do it. He is too good to worry about which hand he shoots with. But I don't think the Caps would ever entertain the idea.

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02-16-2013, 11:36 AM
  #265
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilYoung View Post
I know you have to give to get that being said what do you guys think about a deal built around John Carlson? It'd be risky for the caps but I'm still curious
I would, but when some previous Caps-fans came here and we wanted to have Alzner/Carlson we got a clear response that it wasn't possible.

But yes, Carlson/Alzner as a piece back would definitely be something we'd like to start with and I have actually no idea who/what to add from either side.

But I think it's more of a dream of ours, as you guys have a nice D-corpse over there with your top-3.

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02-16-2013, 11:41 AM
  #266
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I like Alzner more than Carlson. Azlner + EJ could play 25 minutes a game and EJ could feel free to take more offensive chances. Alzner is a rock. Perhaps in the long run you could use Alzner + Barrie/Elliott and tell the kid in the pairing to go nuts.

Carlson is a righty and much more mistake prone. Pretty much the opposite of our needs, even if he has some offense to his game.

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02-16-2013, 11:45 AM
  #267
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Originally Posted by NeilYoung View Post
I know you have to give to get that being said what do you guys think about a deal built around John Carlson? It'd be risky for the caps but I'm still curious
I love Carlson and his contract is great! He is one I wouldn't mind giving up some pieces to obtain especially if we could build a package with a wing prospect/player coming back along with Carlson.

I would think Alzner would come a bit cheaper though and he fits our needs more.

We do haves a good selection of goalie prospects to throw in.


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02-16-2013, 12:01 PM
  #268
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Alzner and Carlson would both be around the same price, I can't see alzner moving though, hes the caps only defensive d man that plays the left side whatsoever and he's perfect to play with any player as a compliment. Carlsons damn good a top pairing possible tweeter number one guy but I feel for a player like oreeilly it would cost that. It's not like McPhee could ever make a big move anyways though

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02-16-2013, 12:05 PM
  #269
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubba Thudd View Post
Is Matt getting 3.5 per year?

If so, make ROR's 3M and 4M. Matt makes more the 1st year, ROR makes more the 2nd year. And ROR is set up better when the next deal is negotiated.
I don't think that would be enough to solve this problem, but Duchene is making $3.25M this year, and $3.75M the next.

http://www.capgeek.com/player/1527

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02-16-2013, 12:08 PM
  #270
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
I really don't get why so many centers are included in the deal for O'Reilly... Mitchell is fine there until free-agency. It's just as large piece of the trade that we don't need and is going to make whatever else comes back less in value.

Bogosian is right handed and Enstrom is to old to be trading O'Reilly for.. (Yes Bogo & ROR are equal in value)



I hope you are right...
Perhaps the Avs figure that they will have to trade Stastny at some point as well?? He's got this year plus next on his deal and no guarantee he re-signs with us.

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No doubt a guy like Yandle would help our transition game and a guy like EJ. But it's a bit iffy trading a guy like O'Reilly in-(future)-division and while Yandle has a very good offensive side to his game, he's softer than Liles and not a guy you can use on the PK. He's been sheltered in Phoenix with the most offensive zone stats and easiest quality of competition in even strength.

09-10: 7th in QoC and 1st in offensive zone starts
10-11: 4th in QoC and 1st in offensive zone starts
11-12: 6th in QoC and 1st in offensive zone starts

He's not a #1D. He's not being used like one and I think if you try to use him as one, you'll end up being disappointed. I likened him to a Carle in another thread, but he's been much more sheltered in Phoenix than Carle ever was in Philadelphia. How he's used is pretty much how Avs used Liles.

And I think, with O'Reilly being pretty much the perfect Tippett player, it's the team he is least likely to realize his offensive potential on. I see him more likely to be a 50 point than a 70 point guy if he was traded there. I guess if he hit is off perfectly with Vrbata there might be a few more points there, but O'Reilly isn't a guy that carries weaker wingers offensively or a guy you run a PP through.

I'm not sold on a trade between these two teams being all that good a fit and I see no reason why Avs would have to add if that trade were to happen. When looking at the underlying numbers, I think Cullen is on to something when he says Phoenix have to add.

Just a little bit of devils advocating.
Can we sticky this? Great post! Pretty much what I was trying to say in the other thread...I like Yandle, he's a very good player but people thinking we need to ADD to O'Reilly are crazy in my opinion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockLobster View Post
I think I've finally found a way to word my reasoning for being on O'Reilly's side in this negotiation. I will attempt to put those words here.

So, essentially the 2 year 7 million dollar offer is supposed to tell O'Reilly that the Avalanche management either A) Don't value O'Reilly above Duchene or B) Even if they did, they sure as hell won't pay him more than Duchene.

The problem I have with that logic is this. If Matt had signed a contract that was say, 2 years 8 million. We all would have still thought that it was a good deal, because based on his first 2 seasons of play, and the contracts that other players were signing (Tavares, Seguin, Myers, etc) it would have still been a great contract.

So by using the logic that the Avalanche have apparently dictated for themselves, they are fine paying O'Reilly whatever Duchene makes (something I still feel shouldn't be at play in this negotiation) and because Matt signed a GREAT deal for the Team, they want Ryan to take the same one...even though they apparently are fine paying him whatever Matt would have signed (had he rejected the 2yr 7m offer)
I think the entire, 'he can't earn MORE than Duchene' is completely overblown and absolutely SPECULATION. Especially when you compare other comparable bridge deals throughout the league. Sure, there are some guys that come out of ELC and teams are forking over a ton over a long term - Eberle, Hall, E.Kane, Tavares but at the same time, all of those players had proven more than RoR did at that same point in their careers. Subban was pretty much in the same situation as RoR and the Avs offered him quite a bit more over 2 years, I'm not sure I'm seeing what the problem is other than the fact that he want's to be traded.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockLobster View Post
I don't know how it breaks down, just that it's AAV is 3.5m

But I just feel that the Avs' logic on this is dumb. Because IF Matt had signed a larger deal, then they would have offered more. Something I'm sure that they are aware of.

I still feel that whatever Matt Duchene signed for shouldn't really play a role in this negotiation. I understand that it is, but I just feel that it shouldn't
Like I said, you're putting to much stock into what's been 'speculated'. If Duchene had signed an extremely, even more team friendly contract at $2M per, would the expectations had been that RoR couldn't earn more than that? Ridiculous! There's not just the team but the rest of the league to consider when making comparables. Duchene DIDN'T WANT to attempt to take the team to the cleaners and get a contract that was comparable to Tavares' and that's HIS RIGHT AS AN INDIVIDUAL. It shouldn't have any bearing on what RoR signs for.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubba Thudd View Post
I like Carlson, but the problem is that he's a RHD, isn't he? We really need a LHD to go with EJ.
I'll never truly understand why people put as much stock in this as they do. It has more to do with how comfortable the individual player is, playing on his off-side than it has to do with the way he shoots. (Phaneuf - RD - shoots left by PREFERENCE for example)

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I'd still do it. He is too good to worry about which hand he shoots with. But I don't think the Caps would ever entertain the idea.
That's the idea.

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02-16-2013, 12:16 PM
  #271
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I would love to see Ryan Johansen with Avs uniform !!! I have a good feeling with this propsect
I would love to do a trade with the Jackets. Send him to rot with the Jackets.

Avs Get:
Jack Johnson
Derick Brassard

Jackets Get:
Ryan O'Reilly
Matt Hunwick

Reunite Johnson and Johnson on the blueline from the Olympics, giving the Avs a legit top pairing on D. Brassard adds some depth at center and still has some top 2 line potential.

Jackets would probably never do that deal, but you never know....

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02-16-2013, 12:20 PM
  #272
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I would love to do a trade with the Jackets. Send him to rot with the Jackets.

Avs Get:
Jack Johnson
Derick Brassard

Jackets Get:
Ryan O'Reilly
Matt Hunwick

Reunite Johnson and Johnson on the blueline from the Olympics, giving the Avs a legit top pairing on D. Brassard adds some depth at center and still has some top 2 line potential.

Jackets would probably never do that deal, but you never know....
Didn't EJ play with Gleason?

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02-16-2013, 12:26 PM
  #273
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I would love to do a trade with the Jackets. Send him to rot with the Jackets.

Avs Get:
Jack Johnson
Derick Brassard

Jackets Get:
Ryan O'Reilly
Matt Hunwick

Reunite Johnson and Johnson on the blueline from the Olympics, giving the Avs a legit top pairing on D. Brassard adds some depth at center and still has some top 2 line potential.

Jackets would probably never do that deal, but you never know....
Jack Johnson is terrible at actually playing defense. No thank you.

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02-16-2013, 12:33 PM
  #274
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Didn't EJ play with Gleason?
Yes

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Jack Johnson is terrible at actually playing defense. No thank you.
He's been great in Columbus, they'd never do that.

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02-16-2013, 12:38 PM
  #275
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
No doubt a guy like Yandle would help our transition game and a guy like EJ. But it's a bit iffy trading a guy like O'Reilly in-(future)-division and while Yandle has a very good offensive side to his game, he's softer than Liles and not a guy you can use on the PK. He's been sheltered in Phoenix with the most offensive zone stats and easiest quality of competition in even strength.

09-10: 7th in QoC and 1st in offensive zone starts
10-11: 4th in QoC and 1st in offensive zone starts
11-12: 6th in QoC and 1st in offensive zone starts

He's not a #1D. He's not being used like one and I think if you try to use him as one, you'll end up being disappointed. I likened him to a Carle in another thread, but he's been much more sheltered in Phoenix than Carle ever was in Philadelphia. How he's used is pretty much how Avs used Liles.

And I think, with O'Reilly being pretty much the perfect Tippett player, it's the team he is least likely to realize his offensive potential on. I see him more likely to be a 50 point than a 70 point guy if he was traded there. I guess if he hit is off perfectly with Vrbata there might be a few more points there, but O'Reilly isn't a guy that carries weaker wingers offensively or a guy you run a PP through.

I'm not sold on a trade between these two teams being all that good a fit and I see no reason why Avs would have to add if that trade were to happen. When looking at the underlying numbers, I think Cullen is on to something when he says Phoenix have to add.

Just a little bit of devils advocating.
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Can we sticky this? Great post! Pretty much what I was trying to say in the other thread...I like Yandle, he's a very good player but people thinking we need to ADD to O'Reilly are crazy in my opinion.
Yandle is in no way softer than Liles, That is just simply untrue.

Secondly, sure he's somehwat sheltered, but so was Blake in Colorado because he was only average defensively, and they had guys that were better defensively. Same with Phoenix. They have plenty of good defenseman, especially OEL.

He's scored more than 40 points twice, and put up 59 points and was an All Star and 5th place Norris finisher in 2010-11 for a low scoring defensive hockey team. That is a top pairing defenseman. You're not being accurate by devaluing his worth.

O'Reilly is a very good young two way player that holds a lot of value. But he is in a contract dispute and has put up 107 points in the last three years as a forward on an offensive team. Yandle has been voted as the 5th best defenseman in the league, been to the All Star game, and has put up 143 points as a defenseman for a defensive team.

O'Reilly is not equal to Yandle in value alone, and if you think there are better options for a real #1 please point them out.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Bender View Post
I'll never truly understand why people put as much stock in this as they do. It has more to do with how comfortable the individual player is, playing on his off-side than it has to do with the way he shoots. (Phaneuf - RD - shoots left by PREFERENCE for example)
Because offensive D simply don't play on their off side too often. Their strengths are carrying the puck up ice in transition, and holding the puck in at the blueline and either taking a shot on net from there or dumping it in.

Since they're usually the ones carrying the puck up ice, if they're on their off side, than a good amount of time they'll be carrying the puck with it closer to the middle of the ice, rather than a safer spot closer to the boards if they get in trouble.

Same with trying to hold the puck in at the blueline on their backhand, or having to stickhandle at the blueline to pull it from their backhand to their forehand, risking a turn over.

It just takes away too much of their strengths. The defensive, or two way guys are usually the ones that switch sides when they have to, since they don't have the puck on their stick as much.


Last edited by Foppa2118: 02-16-2013 at 12:44 PM.
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