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Why are Hutchinson+Pasquale being ignored?

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Old
03-30-2014, 11:56 PM
  #1
knorthern knight
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Why are Hutchinson+Pasquale being ignored?

When the discussion gets around to who should replace P******, it seems that most people are drooling over Comrie and/or Hellebucyk. And talk of replacements/UFAs seems to be mostly about stopgaps until Comrie/Hellebucyk make the Jets. I'm not denying that they've got potential, but realistically, I can see them spending 2 or 3 years in the AHL before/if making the leap to the NHL.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, we already have 2 competent goalies who have the potential to be NHL starters now, not 3 years from now. Pasquale and Hutchinson have done time in the AHL. As a matter of fact, I believe they've done so much time, that they'll be subject to waivers next season, so it's "use 'em or lose 'em".
  • Pasquale had a .920 SV% before a season-ending injury. Assuming he comes back from the injury, he's a potential starter for 2014-2015.
  • Hutchinson has had a .921 SV% since stepping in for Pasquale. He's a potential starter, too.
For comparison, P****** had one season in the AHL, with a .911 SV%. Am I missing something? Do Pasquale+Hutchinson have problems I'm not aware of? Just like Rodney Dangerfield, they don't get no respect.

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03-31-2014, 12:03 AM
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garret9
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Because GMs are risk averse and have a deadly fear of the unknown.

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03-31-2014, 12:05 AM
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Holden Caulfield
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This bears repeating. Goalies DO NOT GET CLAIMED OFF WAIVERS. It simply very very rarely happens. I can assure people it is NOT "use 'em or lose 'em". The will both easily clear waivers next year if they are sent down.

Goaltenders like Greiss, Khudobin, Talbot among other with much better track records have cleared waivers in the past years.

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03-31-2014, 12:07 AM
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I'm pretty sure that Chevy hasn't forgotten about Pasquale and Hutchinson and we won't be influencing any decisions on HF boards. I agree though, it would have been nice to at least see Hutch get some playing time with the big club.

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03-31-2014, 12:12 AM
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I'm hoping that Hellebuyck will turn pro, and backup either Pasquale or Hutchinson,.

And the other will backup whoever is the jets starter next year. As long as it's not he who shall not be mentioned

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03-31-2014, 12:35 AM
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Gump Hasek
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Pasquale is being "ignored" because he just went through a very major and season-ending surgery and no one knows how his body will respond this coming season.

Meanwhile, Hutchinson remains a question mark - as he has already previously played his way off one NHL organization (Boston), and this season marks the first time he has posted a stellar win/loss record at the AHL level.
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php?pid=96549

Not suggesting that he hasn't finally just found his game this season, just that they can't automatically assume he is ready for an NHL job based upon a fairly limited recent run of games at the developmental level. I don't buy into that they are being ignored, anyway. Hutchinson is currently up with the big team and Pasquale is injured.

Both Comrie and Hellebuyck are good prospects. Hopefully Hellebuyck signs as well and all of them are competing for jobs in the organization next season (though Comrie could wind up going back to the WHL for another year). Regardless, that would be a sign of increased competition - a benefit of increased depth that will eventually aid the team going forward.

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03-31-2014, 12:40 AM
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Holden Caulfield
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
Pasquale is being "ignored" because he just went through a very major and season-ending surgery and no one knows how his body will respond this coming season.

Meanwhile, Hutchinson remains a question mark - as he has already previously played his way off one NHL organization (Boston), and this season marks the first time he has posted a stellar win/loss record at the AHL level.
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php?pid=96549

Not suggesting that he hasn't finally just found his game this season, just that they can't automatically assume he is ready for an NHL job based upon a fairly limited recent run of games at the developmental level. I don't buy into that they are being ignored, anyway. Hutchinson is currently up with the big team and Pasquale is injured.

Both Comrie and Hellebuyck are good prospects. Hopefully Hellebuyck signs as well and all of them are competing for jobs in the organization next season (though Comrie could wind up going back to the WHL for another year). Regardless, that would be a sign of increased competition - a benefit of increased depth that will eventually aid the team going forward.
For Comrie it's NHL or WHL. And he won't be at NHL.

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03-31-2014, 12:44 AM
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Gump Hasek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
For Comrie it's NHL or WHL. And he won't be at NHL.
I'm well aware of that, and that would why I mentioned he could wind up back in the WHL for another season. He still would be a part of the increased competition in net this fall at camp, as I also mentioned.


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03-31-2014, 12:45 AM
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Chevy doesn't want to admit defeat with his poor signing in Pavelec.

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03-31-2014, 12:54 AM
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Originally Posted by thed00d View Post
Chevy doesn't want to admit defeat with his poor signing in Pavelec.
this

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03-31-2014, 12:55 AM
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Originally Posted by thed00d View Post
Chevy doesn't want to admit defeat with his poor signing in Pavelec.
I think the thread is directed at posters not Chevy.
Realistically, our goalies this year were going to be Pavs and Monty. It would have taken an injury or a major unforeseen circumstance for Hutch or Pasquale to play for the Jets.
Next year will be the year where we find out if Chevy will "admit defeat"
I think KK was referring to how on this board when we talk about goaltending we point to UFA's or our prospects who are years away rather than our AHL guys.

I could be wrong, but I don't think this thread has much to do with Chevy.

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03-31-2014, 01:12 AM
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Originally Posted by wpgsilver View Post
I think KK was referring to how on this board when we talk about goaltending we point to UFA's or our prospects who are years away rather than our AHL guys.
Exactly. I realize that Pasquale is a question mark, similar in a way to Redmond, with a season-ending injury.

According to http://capgeek.com/player/1657 Hutchinson's AHL SV% were...
  • 2010-2011 .904
  • 2011-2012 .927
  • 2012-2013 .914
  • 3014-3014 .923
Is the 2012-2013 .914 SV% considered bad in the AHL?

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03-31-2014, 01:19 AM
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Gump Hasek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knorthern knight View Post
Is the 2012-2013 .914 SV% considered bad in the AHL?
The context there is that as the backup he was playing mainly against the weaker competition, and his won/loss record was just 13-13-3. Meanwhile, the starting goalie Svedberg went 37-8-2, and they had other highly ranked prospects ready to enter the system below Hutchinson.

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03-31-2014, 02:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
The context there is that as the backup he was playing mainly against the weaker competition, and his won/loss record was just 13-13-3. Meanwhile, the starting goalie Svedberg went 37-8-2, and they had other highly ranked prospects ready to enter the system below Hutchinson.
Here are some numbers I posted last week. I just added Svedberg to the list. I think Boston had a logjam and stuck with Svedberg because he definitely had a good season for them last year in Providence (.925 vs. Hutch's .914). This year Svedberg's a .907, and if you look at their whole pro careers, there's not a lot of statistical difference.

Montoya: AHL 197 GP, .904 SV% / NHL 89 GP, .910 SV%
Pavelec: AHL 93 GP, .912 SV% / NHL 283 GP, .906 SV%
Pasqaule: AHL 136 GP, .910 SV% / (ECHL 12 GP, .898 SV%)
Hutchinson: AHL 109 GP, .917 SV% / (ECHL 48 GP, .920 SV%)
Svedberg: AHL 89 GP, .917 SV% / (SEL 86 GP, .905 SV%)

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03-31-2014, 06:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
This bears repeating. Goalies DO NOT GET CLAIMED OFF WAIVERS. It simply very very rarely happens. I can assure people it is NOT "use 'em or lose 'em". The will both easily clear waivers next year if they are sent down.

Goaltenders like Greiss, Khudobin, Talbot among other with much better track records have cleared waivers in the past years.
Thanks for the reminder about this.

Maybe Hutch can come up here and surprise given a chance. But I don't think you will get much more than competent goaltending from Hutch or Pasquale at the NHL level. Of course this would be a step up, hence they are seen as potential stop-gaps. What Hellebuyck and Comrie offer is the hope for an elite goaltender somewhere down the line. Everyone loves the potential of young prospects, that's why they get all the love.

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03-31-2014, 06:47 AM
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Because GMs are risk averse and have a deadly fear of the unknown.
to be fair, sir, stats vs eyeball test.

not sure how many of us have watched multiple Ice Caps' game to know what parts of Pasqualle and Hutch's games need work.

stat-wise, they look good. but they look AHL good.

on the flip side, look at the Detroit Red Wings. Nyquist was apparently sent to the minors so that Cleary could be on the roster, even though Nyquist had a good camp. look how the team's performing with Nyquist in.

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03-31-2014, 06:48 AM
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Originally Posted by KingBogo View Post
Thanks for the reminder about this.

Maybe Hutch can come up here and surprise given a chance....Everyone loves the potential of young prospects, that's why they get all the love.
and you just answered your own question.
if Hutch started the rest of the season's games, it really isn't enough of a sample size to know if he's the real deal.
the last 10 games of the year always equal fool's gold.

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03-31-2014, 07:11 AM
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allan5oh
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Here's why: a grand total of what, 20 NHL minutes played between the two of them?

No doubt they deserve a shot. Hutch has a chance of nit clearing waivers, but pasquale likely will. Most here think hutch will get a few starts this season.

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03-31-2014, 09:57 AM
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I think it's just A)Gm's a risk averse and B)A lot of folks are still warming up to just how bad Pavelec has been.

I agree, I would actually be totally fine with Running Pasquale and Hutch as our NHL tandem next year, but it makes more sense to bring in at least one more tender (wether or not their a proven NHL starter).

We have room for at least one goaltender to be running in St johns (2 if Connor Goalie doesn't sign), so it makes sense to at least bring in 1 more goalie of equal or greater ability then those 2. Even if their similar in ability (or even worse) it creates more competition in camp and lets you run your goalies based off whose legitimately playing best.

I'd be totally fine signing another similar goalie to those two and letting it be known that who ever plays best gets the starts, whoever's worst goes to the rock. also: if we miss out on the top flight goalies like Halak, any goalie we sign isn't going to cost a whole lot more then either of those 2 so you might as well just go for the best bang for the buck.

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03-31-2014, 11:19 AM
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garret9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HannuJ View Post
to be fair, sir, stats vs eyeball test.

not sure how many of us have watched multiple Ice Caps' game to know what parts of Pasqualle and Hutch's games need work.

stat-wise, they look good. but they look AHL good.

on the flip side, look at the Detroit Red Wings. Nyquist was apparently sent to the minors so that Cleary could be on the roster, even though Nyquist had a good camp. look how the team's performing with Nyquist in.
I was more speaking of NHL wide trend.

Not replying to you but:

Overall, GMs and pro-scouts are terrible at goaltending optimization relative to skaters.

While the NHL top 15 goalies are probably top 15, it is likely that if the best 30 goalies in the world were NHL starters, the turnover would likely be about 10-15 starters a year.

Work on aging curves also seem to make it appear that most NHL starters spent their peak years in the AHL/Europe... as the peak is starting to look younger and younger (currently looking to coincide with reflex and flexibility general peaks of early twenties).

Then in addition there is the terrible, terrible, terrible track record in drafting relative to other positions.

Add in that in general previous sv% to future sv% is a much steeper regression curve than salary to future sv%...

and you got huge market inefficiencies.

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03-31-2014, 12:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I was more speaking of NHL wide trend.

Not replying to you but:

Overall, GMs and pro-scouts are terrible at goaltending optimization relative to skaters.

While the NHL top 15 goalies are probably top 15, it is likely that if the best 30 goalies in the world were NHL starters, the turnover would likely be about 10-15 starters a year.

Work on aging curves also seem to make it appear that most NHL starters spent their peak years in the AHL/Europe... as the peak is starting to look younger and younger (currently looking to coincide with reflex and flexibility general peaks of early twenties).

Then in addition there is the terrible, terrible, terrible track record in drafting relative to other positions.

Add in that in general previous sv% to future sv% is a much steeper regression curve than salary to future sv%...

and you got huge market inefficiencies.
I`ve seen this a few times. Do you think it will start to impact the way organizations handle young goalies?

Obviously there is a transition from Junior/College to pro that needs to be allowed proper time...

But if a goalie is in his physical/performance peak in his low-mid twenties, perhaps the best option is having them turn pro ASAP. So that even as a backup he can get experience, and maybe be ready to go as an NHL goalie earlier than we're used to.

** Edit ** I know this is complicated in a situation like Comrie, where it's NHL or junior only.

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03-31-2014, 01:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knorthern knight View Post
When the discussion gets around to who should replace P******, it seems that most people are drooling over Comrie and/or Hellebucyk. And talk of replacements/UFAs seems to be mostly about stopgaps until Comrie/Hellebucyk make the Jets. I'm not denying that they've got potential, but realistically, I can see them spending 2 or 3 years in the AHL before/if making the leap to the NHL.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, we already have 2 competent goalies who have the potential to be NHL starters now, not 3 years from now. Pasquale and Hutchinson have done time in the AHL. As a matter of fact, I believe they've done so much time, that they'll be subject to waivers next season, so it's "use 'em or lose 'em".
  • Pasquale had a .920 SV% before a season-ending injury. Assuming he comes back from the injury, he's a potential starter for 2014-2015.
  • Hutchinson has had a .921 SV% since stepping in for Pasquale. He's a potential starter, too.
For comparison, P****** had one season in the AHL, with a .911 SV%. Am I missing something? Do Pasquale+Hutchinson have problems I'm not aware of? Just like Rodney Dangerfield, they don't get no respect.
One year does not a career make. Pasquale has an AHL save % of .907 (105 games) whereas Hutchinson is better at .916 (87 games). Seems like Hutchinson may cut it, but remain unconvinced on Pasquale.

NB: got these AHL career stats off of Wik so they may be sl outdated, but nevertheless have to look at more than 1 year to conclude anything.

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03-31-2014, 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted by troubabooster View Post
One year does not a career make. Pasquale has an AHL save % of .907 (105 games) whereas Hutchinson is better at .916 (87 games). Seems like Hutchinson may cut it, but remain unconvinced on Pasquale.

NB: got these AHL career stats off of Wik so they may be sl outdated, but nevertheless have to look at more than 1 year to conclude anything.
I calculated these last week, so they reflect this season (the numbers you cite are to the end of last season I think):

Pasqaule: AHL 136 GP, .910 SV% / (ECHL 12 GP, .898 SV%)
Hutchinson: AHL 109 GP, .917 SV% / (ECHL 48 GP, .920 SV%)

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03-31-2014, 01:46 PM
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JC Numminen
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I would really like to see Hutch get a shot at playing a game or two now that we are not making the playoffs. His numbers in the AHL are good enough that I feel he at least deserves a chance.

Pasquale's numbers are up, and I feel he should get a shot to play in the big league next season, but right now I think Hutch is the better goalie, and has a better chance, and I cant see any scenario that has them both playing on the Jets next year.

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03-31-2014, 01:50 PM
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These guys will both start on the Rock next year as I think Monty will be back as our backup. If Helly signs then Chevy will have to decide who to go with on the Rock as the starter with Helly being the backup. Even Connor starting in the ECHL is not the worst idea.

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