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Jarmo might trade Jack Johnson.

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Old
02-18-2013, 07:05 PM
  #201
DoctrSteveBrule
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Originally Posted by Crede777 View Post
In that case I have some herbal supplements you can buy. Palm readings cost extra.
you realize advanced stats are just different combinations of the same events that make up "regular stats," right?

PPG was probably considered an "advanced stat" at one point too. What's your opinion on the earth revolving around the sun?

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02-18-2013, 07:41 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by DoctrSteveBrule View Post
you realize advanced stats are just different combinations of the same events that make up "regular stats," right?

PPG was probably considered an "advanced stat" at one point too. What's your opinion on the earth revolving around the sun?
That's a pretty unwarranted attack and fundamentally wrong. First of all, PPG was never considered an advanced stat by any stretch of the imagination- It's two basic statistics and division. What makes advanced stats "advanced" is that they require watching and re-watching tapes to gather all of the data. Secondly, advanced hockey statistics are still very new. The metrics will be totally different but more revealing in 5-10 years.

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02-18-2013, 07:45 PM
  #203
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Originally Posted by beached whaler View Post
That's a pretty unwarranted attack and fundamentally wrong. First of all, PPG was never considered an advanced stat by any stretch of the imagination- It's two basic statistics and division. What makes advanced stats "advanced" is that they require watching and re-watching tapes to gather all of the data. Secondly, advanced hockey statistics are still very new. The metrics will be totally different but more revealing in 5-10 years.
what attack? I'm not the one who called it witchcraft...

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02-18-2013, 07:53 PM
  #204
Ceff Jarter
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Originally Posted by DoctrSteveBrule View Post
what attack? I'm not the one who called it witchcraft...


I didn't read the OP but your comments were still wrong

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02-18-2013, 07:58 PM
  #205
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He should not be on the first pairing, but you don't trade a defenceman because you don't have the blueline depth to put him in the best position to succeed! JJ is a #1 PP quarterback and minutes-munching second-pairing guy on a contender and CBJ have a ton of young prospects on D, JJ can play the hard minutes until those guys are ready. I don't think they can get the value back in trade that he gives them on their roster right now.

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02-18-2013, 08:01 PM
  #206
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Originally Posted by beached whaler View Post


I didn't read the OP but your comments were still wrong
that's fine. If you have an actual reason for that, which you do, then you're more than welcome to think that. It just bothers me when people dismiss them because they're new and they don't understand them because they haven't taken the time to do the research. Sure there not perfect. It took a long time for baseball stats to get where they are but certain ones are finally becoming "mainstream."

There are some duds in the pool of advanced hockey stats right now but lumping them all together and calling them horoscopes is just as wrong as blindly believing them. I'm not claiming that they're perfect or "all telling" but they are based on mathematics not the moons or anything

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02-18-2013, 08:07 PM
  #207
Ceff Jarter
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Originally Posted by DoctrSteveBrule View Post
that's fine. If you have an actual reason for that, which you do, then you're more than welcome to think that. It just bothers me when people dismiss them because they're new and they don't understand them because they haven't taken the time to do the research. Sure there not perfect. It took a long time for baseball stats to get where they are but certain ones are finally becoming "mainstream."

There are some duds in the pool of advanced hockey stats right now but lumping them all together and calling them horoscopes is just as wrong as blindly believing them. I'm not claiming that they're perfect or "all telling" but they are based on mathematics not the moons or anything
They will most definitely revolutionize the future of scouting GM decision making. Don't ever play in a fantasy league with statisticians

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02-18-2013, 08:10 PM
  #208
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Wonderful. Thanks to this thread and this thread alone - no media reports, no substantiated discussion, NOTHING except the random guess of a HFer with an agenda - "trading Jack Johnson" has now become a thing. It's popping up in other threads now and folks are making random inquiries.

Damn this thread and everyone backing it.

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02-18-2013, 08:30 PM
  #209
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Originally Posted by DoctrSteveBrule View Post
that's fine. If you have an actual reason for that, which you do, then you're more than welcome to think that. It just bothers me when people dismiss them because they're new and they don't understand them because they haven't taken the time to do the research. Sure there not perfect. It took a long time for baseball stats to get where they are but certain ones are finally becoming "mainstream."

There are some duds in the pool of advanced hockey stats right now but lumping them all together and calling them horoscopes is just as wrong as blindly believing them. I'm not claiming that they're perfect or "all telling" but they are based on mathematics not the moons or anything
My argument is that stats do not represent the actual, on ice performance. They are data, sure, but they aren't applied data. Advanced stats moves the topic towards applied data which in my opinion is misleading. It attempts to draw conclusions or make inferences based upon the numbers.

That is what I have a problem with.

If you want information, there is no substitute for watching the players with your own eyes in my opinion. In essence, they may indicate something you should look at but beyond that they're meaningless. In any study mere statistical review of the data is the lowest form of interpretation available. There is no substitute for direct observation whenever possible.

If Jarmo utilizes advanced statistics to a significant degree, the Jackets will suffer for it. What they need is a GM who can spot talent with his own eyes, not try to read it off of a paper. The only significant place where advanced stats should come into play is at the draft table when you are debating about selecting someone deep in the draft who you haven't had much exposure to.

If they are discussing an NHL'er like Jack Johnson (or one you're looking to trade for), there is no reason why Jarmo shouldn't base his entire opinion on watching Johnson play. If he can't do that, like I said, Columbus is in trouble.


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Old
02-18-2013, 08:52 PM
  #210
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If he can sell high to a team like Detroit or Philly, I think he should go for it.
I can't see Holland going for it.

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02-18-2013, 09:19 PM
  #211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crede777 View Post
My argument is that stats do not represent the actual, on ice performance. They are data, sure, but they aren't applied data. Advanced stats moves the topic towards applied data which in my opinion is misleading. It attempts to draw conclusions or make inferences based upon the numbers.

That is what I have a problem with.

If you want information, there is no substitute for watching the players with your own eyes in my opinion. In essence, they may indicate something you should look at but beyond that they're meaningless. In any study mere statistical review of the data is the lowest form of interpretation available. There is no substitute for direct observation whenever possible.

If Jarmo utilizes advanced statistics to a significant degree, the Jackets will suffer for it. What they need is a GM who can spot talent with his own eyes, not try to read it off of a paper. The only significant place where advanced stats should come into play is at the draft table when you are debating about selecting someone deep in the draft who you haven't had much exposure to.

If they are discussing an NHL'er like Jack Johnson (or one you're looking to trade for), there is no reason why Jarmo shouldn't base his entire opinion on watching Johnson play. If he can't do that, like I said, Columbus is in trouble.
This paragraph tells me you have absolutely no idea how advanced stats are used.

1) You don't use them as a substitute for the eye-test, you just use them to supplement what you see on the ice. You're acting like Jarmo just sits in his room and picks players depending on pure numbers.

2) There are no advanced stats for any level of play besides the NHL, so they are completely useless at the draft table.

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Old
02-18-2013, 10:54 PM
  #212
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I would definitely trade Jack Johnson while his value is high. Face it, the guy is overrated, he is out there on PP all the time, yet he can't generate scoring chances. Look, the guy has the most shots in the entire team, yet he scored 1 fluke goal and generated a couple rebound goals at most.

Now, he's got to be the worst player in the NHL in terms of +/- for the last 5 years. I know this is not a good stat to judge a player by, but if it's constantly in minus category, that means he's not too responsible defensively, so he better be as good offensively as Mike Green circa two seasons ago. Is he? No.

The Jackets fans have never seen a truly top level defenseman in the blue jackets uniform, that's why they think of him as the next best thing, but the guy is second pair at best.

Harsh, but fair.

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02-18-2013, 11:00 PM
  #213
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Now, he's got to be the worst player in the NHL in terms of +/- for the last 5 years. I know this is not a good stat to judge a player by, but if it's constantly in minus category, that means he's not too responsible defensively, so he better be as good offensively as Mike Green circa two seasons ago. Is he? No.
I went ahead and ran a search on every player in the NHL from 2008-09, ranked by worst +/-.

....

Damn.

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02-19-2013, 03:17 AM
  #214
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Originally Posted by ViD View Post
I would definitely trade Jack Johnson while his value is high. Face it, the guy is overrated, he is out there on PP all the time, yet he can't generate scoring chances. Look, the guy has the most shots in the entire team, yet he scored 1 fluke goal and generated a couple rebound goals at most.

Now, he's got to be the worst player in the NHL in terms of +/- for the last 5 years. I know this is not a good stat to judge a player by, but if it's constantly in minus category, that means he's not too responsible defensively, so he better be as good offensively as Mike Green circa two seasons ago. Is he? No.

The Jackets fans have never seen a truly top level defenseman in the blue jackets uniform, that's why they think of him as the next best thing, but the guy is second pair at best.

Harsh, but fair.
Honestly, there is a bit of truth to this, imo. JJ seems like a guy who you just think is better than he really is, without a real reason to back it up. It's not like the Kings were defensive slouches, and he was consistently a - player. He always seemed to me as a 3/4 type guy who needs a solid defensive partner and some PP time, but I think if he's on the top pairing you're probably in trouble.

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02-19-2013, 05:44 AM
  #215
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Honestly, there is a bit of truth to this, imo. JJ seems like a guy who you just think is better than he really is, without a real reason to back it up. It's not like the Kings were defensive slouches, and he was consistently a - player. He always seemed to me as a 3/4 type guy who needs a solid defensive partner and some PP time, but I think if he's on the top pairing you're probably in trouble.
+ - is an unreliable stat. I guess Drew Doughty is one of the worst d-man in the NHL now?

You're right he could use a reliable solid defensive partner, more of a Seabrook than a Wizniewski. He's still pretty solid defensively, and that isn't even his game. He just makes a few bad mistakes that get overemphasized. Doesn't help when your playing 30 + minutes a game.

Using the #4 tag on Jack Johnson makes me wonder if you've seen him play much. I'm not sure if I'd call him a #1, but he sure as hell isnt a middling mid-pairing guy. Johnson can handle top pairing duties, but he isn't getting much help. He isn't good enough to do it all alone, then again, there are a handful of those players in the NHL.

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02-19-2013, 05:49 AM
  #216
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Originally Posted by TSA0402 View Post
+ - is an unreliable stat. I guess Drew Doughty is one of the worst d-man in the NHL now?

You're right he could use a reliable solid defensive partner, more of a Seabrook than a Wizniewski. He's still pretty solid defensively, and that isn't even his game. He just makes a few bad mistakes that get overemphasized. Doesn't help when your playing 30 + minutes a game.

Using the #4 tag on Jack Johnson makes me wonder if you've seen him play much. I'm not sure if I'd call him a #1, but he sure as hell isnt a middling mid-pairing guy. Johnson can handle top pairing duties, but he isn't getting much help. He isn't good enough to do it all alone, then again, there are a handful of those players in the NHL.
I wouldn't use the 4 tag, but I would certainly use the second pairing tag. He's not necessarily a defensive liability, but he's certainly not the guy you're going to want against top competition. And while +/- is largely unreliable, it's not completely useless, and for that many (large) - seasons, it does raise more than a few flags.

And I'll be honest, I don't see him play too much. I normally watch EC games or interesting WC games, and have only seen him a handful of times since he has been traded. So I'm willing to put an * by my posts on the issue.

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02-19-2013, 05:53 AM
  #217
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He's a bad d-man. I literally wouldn't trade anything for him, and the Oilers have a lousy d-corps.

Every metric I've seen concerning his defensive performance is staggeringly bad. If it weren't for his point production, he wouldn't be an NHLer. He's basically Andy Delmore with a better draft pedigree.

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02-19-2013, 05:54 AM
  #218
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Jarmo will keep Johnson for 4-5 years, because he is a important part for a team that wants to tank.

When he trades him away from the roster, CBJ will the Cup in same year just like the Kings did.

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02-19-2013, 08:05 AM
  #219
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Originally Posted by Pronounced Anders View Post
I wouldn't use the 4 tag, but I would certainly use the second pairing tag. He's not necessarily a defensive liability, but he's certainly not the guy you're going to want against top competition. And while +/- is largely unreliable, it's not completely useless, and for that many (large) - seasons, it does raise more than a few flags.

And I'll be honest, I don't see him play too much. I normally watch EC games or interesting WC games, and have only seen him a handful of times since he has been traded. So I'm willing to put an * by my posts on the issue.
he's at worst a #2 guy...but like was said, he needs a more solid defensive guy with him to work with rather than Wiz...we'll keep him for the vast majority of his contract...

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02-19-2013, 08:34 AM
  #220
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He would look good with pietrangelo in st.louis.

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02-19-2013, 08:36 AM
  #221
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What about a JJ for ROR swap?

Unite the Johnsons!

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02-19-2013, 08:38 AM
  #222
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He'd look nice next to Letang for the next 5 to 6 years

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02-19-2013, 08:45 AM
  #223
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Originally Posted by Crede777 View Post
Jack Johnson is a very good defenseman for us and is an important part of the team.

I highly doubt he gets traded.
he's an import part of your your place team?

Johnson is bad defensively. Your team is the worst team in the league defensively. You're telling me that if your GM can't get a real good return for him, you wouldnt do it?

Either that, or you bring in a great defensive defenseman to complement him

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02-19-2013, 09:01 AM
  #224
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Your team is the worst team in the league defensively.
Why are their 8 teams with a worse GA/G than Columbus then?

Certainly can't be goaltending

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02-19-2013, 09:07 AM
  #225
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Terrible idea. JJ provides something very similar to what Phaneuf provides to the Leafs. He will be a great building block for this team going forward.

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