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Old
03-21-2005, 04:56 PM
  #1
Nikkowar
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Phillies 2005!

Well,season's almost here! There are some worries,though,about when will Padilla be ok? And Bell?! That back! I think we'll contend,and I think we'll win the division.

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03-21-2005, 05:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PizzapieZeppelin18
Well,season's almost here! There are some worries,though,about when will Padilla be ok? And Bell?! That back! I think we'll contend,and I think we'll win the division.
based on the theory that this year we shouldn't contend, thus we will?

i think the braves don't win the division for the first time since dinosaurs roamed the earth, but i think the marlins are going to be the ones to do it.

Top 4 Pitchers:
Becket
AJ Burnett
Willis
Leiter

- we don't match up with ANY of those guys for their slot.

Field:
C: Lo Duca (better than Lieberthal... unless he magically comes back to life)
1B: Delgado (Thome is better, but not by much... if at all)
2B: Castillo (less power, but running and defense... better)
3B: Lowell (please...)
SS: Gonzalez (Rollins is better... but not as steady)
LF: Encarnacion (Brings more to the table unless Burrell finds his swing for a season)
CF: Pierre (clearly better)
RF: Cabrera (I love Abreu, but I think this is debatable.)

better team defense and an offense that is absolutely going to murder pitching staffs in close defensive games (which they are designed to play in). if Pierre gets on base in the bottom of the ninth in a tie-game, it's basically over.

i don't think the phils are a bad team, but i think the Marlins are a legit threat for a WS this year based on the team they've put together down there.

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03-21-2005, 05:27 PM
  #3
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It's going to be another disappointing season for the Fightin' Phils this year. I would be amazed if they finish above .500. Management didn't do anything to address the problems in the lineup and their pitching staff is just as questionable as it was last year. Kenny Lofton? Gimme a break.

Oh, and how could I forget the Placido Palanco debacle? $4.5 million for a utility infielder who won't even start, unless Bell is out. Nice waste of salary there. I'm sure that management couldn't have found a better way to spend $4.5 million.

This lineup has too many strikeouts in it (Rollins, Thome, Burrell, Lieberthal and Bell)and they don't play small ball well enough. They really don't even have a legitimate leadoff hitter as Jimmy Rollins is the equivalent to Willie Mays-Hayes in Major League. I've never seen a leadoff hitter swing at so many first pitches and strike out so often. Unfortunately the guy who should be leading off, Bobby Abreu, doesn't want to and Mr. Everybodys Best Friend Charlie Manuel won't do anything to make his players unhappy.

The pitching staff doesn't have a legitimate ace and has a lot of injury questions.

Once again, Gavin Floyd will not be part of the major league roster nor will Ryan Howard. Ryan Howard has absolutely no future with the Phils since he can only play first base. His trade value was very high last year as he was blasting homeruns in AA ball and Ed Wade wouldn't trade him. Why the hell not? He has zero shot of taking Jim Thome's job, so why hold onto him?

Personally, I would have liked it if the Phils traded Jim Thome to bring in a legitimate ace and let Ryan Howard take the job at first. However, given that Thome's friend Charlie Manuel was named manager, that wasn't going to happen.

Quite frankly, this team no longer has any excuses if they don't win. They *****ed and moaned about how they didn't like Larry Bowa and that the clubhouse wasn't a fun place to be. Well, they got their wish and got Charlie Manuel who is the exact polar opposite of Larry Bowa. If they can't win with this manager, they simply can't win.

Some how, some way, the Braves will win the division once again.

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03-21-2005, 06:22 PM
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i agree to a degree with the above comment, the year we expect to do nothing, we will proably contend. Bu i still dont see it. The Marlins Braves and Mets are all better, since all the upgrades they have made. but one of those teams will dissapoint my guess the Mets.
i think 3rd is where the Phils will finish.

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03-21-2005, 06:32 PM
  #5
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03-21-2005, 06:57 PM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PizzapieZeppelin18
Well,season's almost here! There are some worries,though,about when will Padilla be ok? And Bell?! That back! I think we'll contend,and I think we'll win the division.
The Phillies don't deserve the time and space to write anything.

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03-21-2005, 07:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jb
The Phillies don't deserve the time and space to write anything.
oh really....well then,thanks for wasting my time...

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03-21-2005, 07:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PizzapieZeppelin18
oh really....well then,thanks for wasting my time...
You got it!

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03-21-2005, 07:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jb
You got it!

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Old
03-21-2005, 07:24 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PizzapieZeppelin18
Well,season's almost here! There are some worries,though,about when will Padilla be ok? And Bell?! That back! I think we'll contend,and I think we'll win the division.
everyone is entitled to their opinion, however if you think they will win the division you are an eternal optimist, they lack the pitching, to many strikeouts, poor clutch hitting, they lack heart and don't know how to win. Hope I am wrong but I doubt it they could very well finish last, or if everything goes right maybe first.

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03-21-2005, 07:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jb
everyone is entitled to their opinion, however if you think they will win the division you are an eternal optimist, they lack the pitching, to many strikeouts, poor clutch hitting, they lack heart and don't know how to win. Hope I am wrong but I doubt it they could very well finish last, or if everything goes right maybe first.
Somehow,I'd expect you to be a follower come October. Yes,maybe their pitching staff has question marks. Lieber? Would he be the same 20-game winner for us? Will Padilla be healed,and I say,put Padilla on the DL,give his spot to Gavin Floyd. But Ed Wade doesn't want that. Wade wants it HIS way,and his way always goes but yes,I am what you call an eternal optimist.

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03-21-2005, 07:30 PM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PizzapieZeppelin18
Somehow,I'd expect you to be a follower come October. Yes,maybe their pitching staff has question marks. Lieber? Would he be the same 20-game winner for us? Will Padilla be healed,and I say,put Padilla on the DL,give his spot to Gavin Floyd. But Ed Wade doesn't want that. Wade wants it HIS way,and his way always goes but yes,I am what you call an eternal optimist.
I hope they are still playing in October but doubt it, don't want to even touch on Ed Wade who is the most inept GM in ALL of sports. We all know why he is still around and that is sad. will never part with his so called can't miss prospects who somehow never make it, he is a joke of a GM. I am done with Ed Wade bashing for today, have a good night.

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03-21-2005, 08:33 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jb
I hope they are still playing in October but doubt it, don't want to even touch on Ed Wade who is the most inept GM in ALL of sports. We all know why he is still around and that is sad. will never part with his so called can't miss prospects who somehow never make it, he is a joke of a GM. I am done with Ed Wade bashing for today, have a good night.
I agree to your comment about Wade to a degree. However, he is a puppet for the Phillies ownership group and does what he is told. That being said, I can't pass judgement on how good or bad he is as a GM.

As far as I am concerned, if the Phils finish above .500 I will be impressed.

Hey, Zep, regarding Lieber, let's put it this way, the Yankees rarely don't re-sign guys that they really want to keep given that they pretty much have an unlimited budget. If Lieber was all that, the Yankeers would have re-signed him in a heartbeat.

I'm simply not enthused about this pitching staff whatsoever. Padilla will be hurt for part of the year, as will Wolf. Looks like Brett Myers has taken a page out of Kevin Millwood's training regimen as he looks like he's been training in some bar over the winter doing 12-oz curls. Am I supposed to be excited about seeing the likes of Cormier, Telemaco, Adams and Worrell coming out of the bullpen? The only pitcher that I even remotely want to see is Billy Wagner and I expect him to be traded at the deadline to a contending team.

It's going to be one looooooooooooooooooooooooooong summer.

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03-21-2005, 09:02 PM
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If the pitching is just average, the Phillies are going to suprise people. People ***** about their offense, but they have the best offense in the division.

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03-22-2005, 08:40 AM
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03-22-2005, 09:02 AM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Field:
C: Lo Duca (better than Lieberthal... unless he magically comes back to life)
LoDuca is not better than Lieberthal. Lieberthal is a better defender, and a much better hitter. Last year this was not the case, but for their careers, Lieberthal is the superior player.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
LF: Encarnacion (Brings more to the table unless Burrell finds his swing for a season)
What? Juan Encarnacion The Human Out Machine? He isn't better than Burrell, I don't know how you could think he is. Encarnacion has been an above average hitter for a full season once. Burrell has been a below average hitter once.

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03-22-2005, 11:39 AM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Love
LoDuca is not better than Lieberthal. Lieberthal is a better defender, and a much better hitter. Last year this was not the case, but for their careers, Lieberthal is the superior player.


What? Juan Encarnacion The Human Out Machine? He isn't better than Burrell, I don't know how you could think he is. Encarnacion has been an above average hitter for a full season once. Burrell has been a below average hitter once.

Lieberthal is in the same boat as Piazza is. his health is starting to catch up with him.

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Old
03-22-2005, 11:50 AM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Love
LoDuca is not better than Lieberthal. Lieberthal is a better defender, and a much better hitter. Last year this was not the case, but for their careers, Lieberthal is the superior player.


What? Juan Encarnacion The Human Out Machine? He isn't better than Burrell, I don't know how you could think he is. Encarnacion has been an above average hitter for a full season once. Burrell has been a below average hitter once.
Lieberthal v. LoDuca

Average's:
Lieberthal: .276 AVG, .340 OBP, 21 HR, 86 RBI, 83 SO, .792 OPS
Lo Duca: .285 AVG, .340 OBP, 15 HR, 77 RBI, 46 SO, .764 OPS

point of note on their offensive output... Lieberthal has played in a MUCH more offensive friendly park over those years. Dodger stadium isn't exactly a bastion of offensive production. not to mention, half the SO's means he's having much more productive AB's.

as far as Lieberthal v. Lo Duca defensively... Lieberthal is good at the defensive end of catching, yes. However, Lieberthal is absolutely awful at calling a game behind the plate. if you notice over the last few years, every "great" pitching performance has been called by Pratt.

Encarnacion v. Burrell

Average's:
Encarnacion: .265 AVG, .311 OBP, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 21 SB, 113 SO, .750 OPS
Burrell: .253 AVG, .351 OBP, 30 HR, 101 RBI, 1 SB, 169 SO, .821 OPS

note: burrell has only crossed 90 RBI's once in his career, so his RBI avg. is skewed. he has also only hit above .260 once in his career.

yeah, i agree completely that i'd rather have Burrell if he's going to be the .282/35+/100+ guy he was a couple of years ago. is he gonna do that though? i don't know... not really expecting it at this point. would love to see it. in the meantime the phils are desperate for some guys that strike out less... and someone who can get out on the base path and run some is a good thing as well.

but if you remove Burrell's ONE great year, he's no better, and arguably worse than Encarnacion due to his lack of speed. bit more power, but at a cost of 50+ K's a season. Burrell is very solid defensively, with a good arm... bit less range out there than Encarnacion though.

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03-22-2005, 11:51 AM
  #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkeMustGoDotCom
Lieberthal is in the same boat as Piazza is. his health is starting to catch up with him.
like the rest of the team he tries to yank everything... if he'd go to driving for the gaps he'd be much better off.

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03-22-2005, 12:07 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Lieberthal v. LoDuca

Average's:
Lieberthal: .276 AVG, .340 OBP, 21 HR, 86 RBI, 83 SO, .792 OPS
Lo Duca: .285 AVG, .340 OBP, 15 HR, 77 RBI, 46 SO, .764 OPS

point of note on their offensive output... Lieberthal has played in a MUCH more offensive friendly park over those years. Dodger stadium isn't exactly a bastion of offensive production. not to mention, half the SO's means he's having much more productive AB's.
Damn, I was wrong. But so were you. They're even. Career OPS+ (which is park adjusted):

Lieberthal: 104
LoDuca: 104

Lieberthal is consistent though, LoDuca always drops off in the second half of the season.

Quote:
as far as Lieberthal v. Lo Duca defensively... Lieberthal is good at the defensive end of catching, yes. However, Lieberthal is absolutely awful at calling a game behind the plate. if you notice over the last few years, every "great" pitching performance has been called by Pratt.
LoDuca is no great shakes at calling a game either.

Quote:
Encarnacion v. Burrell

Average's:
Encarnacion: .265 AVG, .311 OBP, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 21 SB, 113 SO, .750 OPS
Burrell: .253 AVG, .351 OBP, 30 HR, 101 RBI, 1 SB, 169 SO, .821 OPS

note: burrell has only crossed 90 RBI's once in his career, so his RBI avg. is skewed. he has also only hit above .260 once in his career.
OPS+:

Burrell: 113
Encarnacion: 94

Quote:
yeah, i agree completely that i'd rather have Burrell if he's going to be the .282/35+/100+ guy he was a couple of years ago. is he gonna do that though? i don't know... not really expecting it at this point. would love to see it. in the meantime the phils are desperate for some guys that strike out less... and someone who can get out on the base path and run some is a good thing as well.
Burrell was better last year than Encarnacion has ever been.

Quote:
but if you remove Burrell's ONE great year, he's no better, and arguably worse than Encarnacion due to his lack of speed. bit more power, but at a cost of 50+ K's a season. Burrell is very solid defensively, with a good arm... bit less range out there than Encarnacion though.
If you remove Burrell's one great year, he's still better than Encarnacion. Juan Encaracion is a below average player.

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03-22-2005, 03:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
like the rest of the team he tries to yank everything... if he'd go to driving for the gaps he'd be much better off.
So would the rest of the Phils batting order. If the Phils lineup could actually learn to play smallball and not swing for the fences they would be so much better off. Actually, it's one of the complaints I have about the new ballpark. They made is so homerun friendly that players are encouraged to swing for the fences more often.

If Burrell didn't swing for the fences on every swing, maybe he would cut his strikeouts down?

BTW, Encarnacion is a decent fielding outfielder. The same cannot be said for Burrell who is borderline horrible. He almost makes Greg Luzinksi a gold glover.

I'm glad that there are some that think this team will actually be a contender this year. If they do, I will be pleasantly surprised. I'm still sticking to my prediction of .500 at best.

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03-22-2005, 03:40 PM
  #22
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Originally Posted by pelts35.com
So would the rest of the Phils batting order. If the Phils lineup could actually learn to play smallball and not swing for the fences they would be so much better off. Actually, it's one of the complaints I have about the new ballpark. They made is so homerun friendly that players are encouraged to swing for the fences more often.

If Burrell didn't swing for the fences on every swing, maybe he would cut his strikeouts down?

BTW, Encarnacion is a decent fielding outfielder. The same cannot be said for Burrell who is borderline horrible. He almost makes Greg Luzinksi a gold glover.
I don't get the complaints over the Phils offense, they were what, ranked 3rd in the NL last year? Aside from Leiby's horrible RISP performance last year, I really can't complain about their offense. That wasn't the problem last year, it was the starting rotation (which also wasnt' because of the park, they had a worse ERA away from home that at home).

Burrell is an ok fielder, espeically for someone of his speed. He also has a plus arm.

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03-22-2005, 05:09 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paxtang
I don't get the complaints over the Phils offense, they were what, ranked 3rd in the NL last year? Aside from Leiby's horrible RISP performance last year, I really can't complain about their offense. That wasn't the problem last year, it was the starting rotation (which also wasnt' because of the park, they had a worse ERA away from home that at home).

Burrell is an ok fielder, espeically for someone of his speed. He also has a plus arm.
Yes, the rotation was poor and this season's rotation could be worse.

I don't agree about the offense. The Phils offense can either put up 8 runs a night or none. You can't consistently win games with an offense like that. That being said, putting up meaningless runs in a 8-1 game certainly pads the stats. This is clearly one case where stats don't tell the true story.

Yes, their offensive numbers were impressive in terms of runs scored, home runs and hits. However, they were also 6th in strikeouts and 12th in sacrifice hits (illustrating that the team does not play small ball).

As for Burrell and his fielding, speed is a part of the equation. You can't say that a guy is an ok fielder especially for someone of his speed. He doesn't have the speed to run down balls that other left fielders can. Honestly, he'd be perfect in the AL as a DH.

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03-22-2005, 05:19 PM
  #24
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Originally Posted by pelts35.com
Yes, the rotation was poor and this season's rotation could be worse.

I don't agree about the offense. The Phils offense can either put up 8 runs a night or none. You can't consistently win games with an offense like that. That being said, putting up meaningless runs in a 8-1 game certainly pads the stats. This is clearly one case where stats don't tell the true story.

Yes, their offensive numbers were impressive in terms of runs scored, home runs and hits. However, they were also 6th in strikeouts and 12th in sacrifice hits (illustrating that the team does not play small ball).

As for Burrell and his fielding, speed is a part of the equation. You can't say that a guy is an ok fielder especially for someone of his speed. He doesn't have the speed to run down balls that other left fielders can. Honestly, he'd be perfect in the AL as a DH.
I think the rotation will more than likely be better this year than last. Leiber will probably have a better season than Millwood did last year. Myers has a good chance to improve, Wolf should be fine if he avoids injury. If Lidle doesn't work out, than Floyd might. Padilla is an a quesiton mark. I just don't see how you can think the rotation, which had quite a few below career average seasons, will be even worse this year.

Well, I could dig up the thread on philliesphans.com, but they did a statistical study on whether the Phils offense was really a boom or bust team like many, including you, claim they are. They found that they weren't anymore so than most teams in the league. The fact of the matter is that the Phils offense is a good offense. Every team has games where they leave a lot on base (btw, people always point to the Phils high LOB as a symptom of a bad offense. Actually, its a symptom of getting a lot of runners on base. The Phils had a very high OBP). Offense in baseball is a game of failure more often than not. There is no statistical evidence that the Phils are a feast or famine team that load up in games, anymore so than other teams.

I also don't get the love affair with small ball. I think it has to do with the Marlins dominace over the Phils. If you want to explain to me how the Phils high strikeout numbers make them a bad offense, I'd like to hear it.

Burrells range is poor because of his speed, but everything else out of his defensive game is fine. He's not a great defender, I'll agree, but he's adequate.

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03-22-2005, 06:22 PM
  #25
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