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Old
03-18-2013, 08:43 PM
  #501
DespoticNewt
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Wow. That was an impressive goal by J.T. Miller.

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Old
03-18-2013, 08:43 PM
  #502
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I really like these Carolina announcers. They're pretty unbiased to my ears.
Not really. They were really crying over the Goalie Interference penalty

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03-18-2013, 08:45 PM
  #503
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Was that even a legal shootout goal? He wasn't exactly moving towards the net at the end. O_o Not that the refs seem to mind, so whatever. *shrug*

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03-18-2013, 08:49 PM
  #504
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Was that even a legal shootout goal? He wasn't exactly moving towards the net at the end O_o
I think they changed the wording of the shootout to put less emphasis on the 'forward momentum' part of the puck.

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03-18-2013, 08:51 PM
  #505
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This year is crazy. Every day you look at the standings and teams are moving up and down.

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03-18-2013, 09:00 PM
  #506
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If the playoffs started today we'd be up against the Habs. Think of how amazing the crowds would be every game.

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Old
03-18-2013, 09:04 PM
  #507
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Man, the announcer for the Chi v Col game is really going off on rant about the quality of care in the relationship between trainers and players.

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03-18-2013, 09:47 PM
  #508
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well my dreams of Corey Perry being a jet are dead he just re signed an extension with Anahiem

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Old
03-18-2013, 09:48 PM
  #509
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well my dreams of Corey Perry being a jet are dead he just re signed an extension with Anahiem
That suprises me

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03-18-2013, 09:49 PM
  #510
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You mean Perry didn't want to go to Toronto as a UFA? Why, colour me surprised.









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03-18-2013, 10:21 PM
  #511
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You mean Perry didn't want to go to Toronto as a UFA? Why, colour me surprised.








Toronto is the mecca of hockey, I have no idea how he didn't sign there.

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03-18-2013, 10:22 PM
  #512
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Say goodbye to Bobby Ryan Anaheim. Screwed, that franchise is.

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Old
03-18-2013, 10:35 PM
  #513
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Say goodbye to Bobby Ryan Anaheim. Screwed, that franchise is.
Not sure if serious or not? Looking at capgeek it appears they would still have room to retain him through to 2016.

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03-18-2013, 10:37 PM
  #514
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Good to see Anaheim able to retain Perry and Getzlaf. Two franchise cornerstones. Hopefully they can still afford to build a solid team around them in the coming years.

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Old
03-18-2013, 10:45 PM
  #515
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Not sure if serious or not? Looking at capgeek it appears they would still have room to retain him through to 2016.
Two things. Ducks are not a cap team. They can't afford to go much if any higher than where they are right now. That team is not often mentioned, but they are probably bottom 5 in terms of revenue every year.

Secondly, Ryan is a UFA after his current contract ends in 14-15. He'll be looking for a raise at that time. They won't be able to afford him. No chance.

Not too mention the Ducks now have 11 million dollars in cap space next, even if they can afford to go to cap (which I doubt). With only 3 top 6 forwards (Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan). And that's with only 9 forwards, 5d, 2g signed. 11 million to build an ENTIRE 2nd line, add some depth up front (2 fwds) get a top 4 D and add a depth D. Good luck.

My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Bobby Ryan ($5.100m) / Ryan Getzlaf ($8.250m) / Corey Perry ($8.250m)
//
Andrew Cogliano ($2.390m) / Peter Holland ($1.295m) / Emerson Etem ($0.870m)
Daniel Winnik ($1.800m) / Nick Bonino ($0.700m) /
Brad Staubitz ($0.638m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Francois Beauchemin ($3.500m) / Cam Fowler ($4.000m)
Luca Sbisa ($2.175m) /
Bryan Allen ($3.500m) / Sheldon Souray ($3.667m)
GOALTENDERS
Jonas Hiller ($4.500m)
Viktor Fasth ($2.900m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $53,109,167; BONUSES: $425,000
CAP SPACE (16-man roster): $11,615,833

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Old
03-18-2013, 11:32 PM
  #516
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I still think your assertion that they are screwed because Perry gets a $3m raise is a bit of an overreaction.

And this team is #1 on the power rankings and a serious cup contender this year, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were a threat next year too.

I'd trade our roster for theirs in a heartbeat and take the screwing.

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03-18-2013, 11:35 PM
  #517
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I still think your assertion that they are screwed because Perry gets a $3m raise is a bit of an overreaction.

And this team is #1 on the power rankings and a serious cup contender this year, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were a threat next year too.

I'd trade our roster for theirs in a heartbeat and take the screwing.
We'll see. As I said in the top 16 thread, Ducks are perhaps the biggest overachieving team left in the league with Toronto tumbling. 25th in the league in Fenwick. Don't seem them as any kind of playoff threat, and I feel they will miss playoffs next season in all liklihood (although there is a lot of time left till then, I reserve the right to take that back )

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03-18-2013, 11:37 PM
  #518
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
We'll see. As I said in the top 16 thread, Ducks are perhaps the biggest overachieving team left in the league with Toronto tumbling. 25th in the league in Fenwick. Don't seem them as any kind of playoff threat, and I feel they will miss playoffs next season in all liklihood (although there is a lot of time left till then, I reserve the right to take that back )
I think your Kings are showing

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Old
03-18-2013, 11:48 PM
  #519
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I think your Kings are showing
And from "top 16 thread"
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Originally Posted by Puckschmuck View Post
Says the LA Kings fan
Ok, well we'll all see then but I'll just leave this...

Type - Stat - League Rank
Fenwick - 45.97 - 25th
SF/60 - 23.08 - 27th
SA/60 - 26.06 - 16th
PDO - 1.047 - 1st

That all indicates they are vastly overachieving.

Calling garret and truck to back me up on this.

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Old
03-18-2013, 11:56 PM
  #520
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That is A LOT of money tied up in two players. Two world class players. But still, just two. I hope for their sake they can still get good players around them.

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Old
03-19-2013, 12:20 AM
  #521
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Toronto is the mecca of hockey, I have no idea how he didn't sign there.
It amazes me that UFAs don't flock to the Leafs and take massive pay cuts just to play for them.

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Old
03-19-2013, 12:52 AM
  #522
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
And from "top 16 thread"


Ok, well we'll all see then but I'll just leave this...

Type - Stat - League Rank
Fenwick - 45.97 - 25th
SF/60 - 23.08 - 27th
SA/60 - 26.06 - 16th
PDO - 1.047 - 1st

That all indicates they are vastly overachieving.

Calling garret and truck to back me up on this.
Of course you love the Fenwick because it shows that the Kings are one of the best teams in the league. And the Ducks are one of the worst....but somehow this awful team managed to light up the Kings for 7 goals earlier this year.

I try not to put too much faith in the Fenwick because average Fenwick teams have won the cup. It shows some of the story, but not all of it. It doesn't reflect goaltending, and it doesn't show chances, only pure shot advantages. If you go by pure Fenwick weren't the Jets like the 10th or 11th best team in the league last year? I think we all know they weren't...lots of poor quality shots from the perimeter. And it counts missed shots? I'm not sure I like that. Anyways, not a bad measure of team strength, but not the be-all IMHO.

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Old
03-19-2013, 01:04 AM
  #523
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
And from "top 16 thread"


Ok, well we'll all see then but I'll just leave this...

Type - Stat - League Rank
Fenwick - 45.97 - 25th
SF/60 - 23.08 - 27th
SA/60 - 26.06 - 16th
PDO - 1.047 - 1st

That all indicates they are vastly overachieving.

Calling garret and truck to back me up on this.
Those are pretty much all the stats I used (and others) to claim regression on Toronto.

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Old
03-19-2013, 01:12 AM
  #524
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Originally Posted by Wings View Post
Of course you love the Fenwick because it shows that the Kings are one of the best teams in the league. And the Ducks are one of the worst....but somehow this awful team managed to light up the Kings for 7 goals earlier this year.

I try not to put too much faith in the Fenwick because average Fenwick teams have won the cup. It shows some of the story, but not all of it. It doesn't reflect goaltending, and it doesn't show chances, only pure shot advantages. If you go by pure Fenwick weren't the Jets like the 10th or 11th best team in the league last year? I think we all know they weren't...lots of poor quality shots from the perimeter. And it counts missed shots? I'm not sure I like that. Anyways, not a bad measure of team strength, but not the be-all IMHO.
One games does not make a season. In the NHL any team can beat any team on any given night. Does not make them a better team.

Which is why I included several other stats. Most of the stats show that the Ducks are an overachieving team. That's not too say they aren't a good team, but they are nowhere near as good as their record indicates.

Remember that through 30 games last year Minnesota was first in the league. They were nothing special.

I've never claimed it is an be-all stat. But it is a decent indicator of GENERAL trends for under and over achieving teams. It's not exact, obviously. But combined with their poor shot generating ability, mediocre shot preventing and incredibly high PDO, it just does not seem like their current record is at all sustainable. They are getting by on luck and hot streaks, which won't continue.

Yes Jets finished 11th in Fenwick last year. They were also 21st in PDO, 14th in SF/60 and 13th in SA/60. Finished 22nd in league. Which indicates they were a middling team, maybe should have finished a little higher.

These ranks don't indicate exactly where a team will finish. But when a team is 2nd in league, 25th in Fenwick, 1st PDO, 27th SF/60, 16th SA/60 that raises questions. The key is looking for things that don't make sense. I by no mean think Ducks are the 25th best team in NHL. They are much better than that, obviously. But clearly something is happening here that is not sustainable. Or they can manage to get outplayed game after game and still win in perpetuity. I tend to believe more in the "it's not sustainable".

Ducks are a middle of the pack team, vastly overachieving, and will run into money problems in the very near future.

BTW, I also tend to prefer SF/60 and SA/60 to Fenwick. I feel there's a stronger correletion there. Fenwick is just easier to quote since it's more of a catch-all stat (which also makes it a little more inaccurate compared to SF/60 and SA/60.


Last edited by Holden Caulfield: 03-19-2013 at 01:22 AM.
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Old
03-19-2013, 01:13 AM
  #525
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Originally Posted by Wings View Post
Of course you love the Fenwick because it shows that the Kings are one of the best teams in the league. And the Ducks are one of the worst....but somehow this awful team managed to light up the Kings for 7 goals earlier this year.

I try not to put too much faith in the Fenwick because average Fenwick teams have won the cup. It shows some of the story, but not all of it. It doesn't reflect goaltending, and it doesn't show chances, only pure shot advantages. If you go by pure Fenwick weren't the Jets like the 10th or 11th best team in the league last year? I think we all know they weren't...lots of poor quality shots from the perimeter. And it counts missed shots? I'm not sure I like that. Anyways, not a bad measure of team strength, but not the be-all IMHO.
he didn't just use Fenwick (nor do I)...
He also used shots for/against and PDO.

SF/SA in the last 5 years has had a strong enough correlation over the last 5 years to long term success to have a P value in the 15th decimal place... That means:
99.9999999999985% confidence that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between shot differential and standings points

Also the PDO points out to two things:
Fasth has the same SV% as he had in SEL, a weaker league
Anaheim is scoring on higher percentage of shots on any team in the league

Yes Fasth is a good goalie and yes they have some good goalscorers on the team. But not that good... not legendary good.

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