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Edmonton RoadRunners - The Guys Playing the Tough Minutes

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Old
03-22-2005, 10:48 AM
  #1
igor*
 
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Edmonton RoadRunners - The Guys Playing the Tough Minutes

In case you were wondering who they were. :-)

oilswell sent me the data and I ran the quick numbers. No icetimes are available so it is a bit crude ... just the cumulative +s and -s of the opposition for every 5on5 goal the player was out for.

Bear in mind this is entirely the coaches decision, the player has no choice. And while I don't know who the best players in the AHL are ... presumably Jeff Ward does. Anyhow, EDIT:one guy is head and shoulders above the others by this measure. Two others deserve mention.

J.J. Hunter (EV+23, EV-20) Opp+/-Rating 11.4

Mike Bishai (EV+24, EV-21) Opp+/-Rating 8.7
Mathieu Roy (EV+26, EV-20) Opp+/-Rating 8.4

With honourable mentions to Baum, Salmelainen and Wright
.

The guys getting the softest minutes, in order:

Kyle Brodziak (EV+19, EV-16) Opp+/-Rating -0.8
Jason Platt (EV+22, EV-16) Opp+/-Rating 0.2
Raffi Torres (EV+31, EV-18) Opp+/-Rating 0.7
Jarret Stoll (EV+25, EV-18) Opp+/-Rating 1.5

.
.

The big movers since Christmas:

Raffi Torres from amongst the toughest to amongst the softest. Meaning that since then he's played buttersoft minutes. If this were a Murray or Quenneville team that would mean that Raffi is playing hurt, but I don't know Ward.

.

Of note: JJ Hunter just keeps getting the tough assignments. And he's not getting outscored. Impressive stuff. If he's strong enough and/or fast enough you'd think he'll be an NHLer for much his prime years (25 thru 30 or so).

.

Editted. Noticed glitch in script that was skipping a whack of games. Apologies.

.

Just rough stuff, but I thought I would throw it up here anyway.


Last edited by igor*: 03-22-2005 at 01:48 PM.
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Old
03-22-2005, 11:40 AM
  #2
Joanie
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igor, thanks......

as always, good stuff. I have noticed JJ's play throughout this season. Not sure how far his skill will take him, but I have seldom watched a player give so much each shift. The guy seems to be everywhere . Good at forechecking and backchecking.

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03-22-2005, 11:57 AM
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Well this definitely falls in line,since Raffi's 4 goal game against Milwaulkee he's been playing with a hip problem or something to that effect.

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03-22-2005, 12:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
And while I don't know who the best players in the AHL are ... presumably Jeff Ward does.
The numbers have prima facie validity. Two of the three top forwards are were placed in the vet category in LT's trisection of RRs (great post BTW LT, didn't mention it yet). This is something we've expected of Ward's decisionmaking, I think.

It puts into context's Bry's bile-o-gram delivered towards the vets and presumed leaders on the team. In the case of Peterson and Wright, it may be they're not shining as brightly as they would be in other years because the coach has given them whatever they can handle. I'll have to start rethinking my opinion about hirings by Lowe, perhaps. Wonder where Mrozik fits in.

At first I wondered about validity with Torres so low, but then I saw Niinimaki off the charts and Baum's pretty low (I really like the player from what I've seen, but understand why Ward would give him soft minutes). So there's some more reason to lay some trust on the results and methods.

Quote:
Woywitka's minutes have gotten considerably easier while Lynch's have gone the other way.
Yeah, but Woywitka is having a resurgence, right?

I dunno. Maybe its a good thing that Woywitka is being given some kids glove treatments if it helps nobody out if he's drowning. If you believe that the AHL should value player development over winning, Woywitka should probably be rotated without regard to opposition, and perhaps even be tossed into the fire of the hard minutes to let him learn the hard way. If Ward does that, though, where do the RRs fall in the standings?

Pissing me off: Where the heck is Salmelainen?

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03-22-2005, 01:00 PM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilswell
It puts into context's Bry's bile-o-gram delivered towards the vets and presumed leaders on the team. In the case of Peterson and Wright, it may be they're not shining as brightly as they would be in other years because the coach has given them whatever they can handle.
It maybe true that they're playing the tougher minutes, but these guys are career AHLers and should be scoring at a much higher clip. The Runners top 2 lines are terrible!!! I'd sooner have Healey, because at least he provides offense at this level. Salmnelainen and Torres sure haven't done anyone any favors. If Torres is indeed hurt, then he should've been sat down for 3-5 games and play others in his place for the meanwhile. I'm just not buying it, the guys that should be producing aren't. The guys who you expected to be the top 2 liners this year have all under-produced "Bishai,Stoll,Petersen,Wright,Salmelainen" add in Torres as a late addition, and where's the offense??? IMO excuses just aren't cutting it. Add in Lynch and Woywitka's play, and you've got to wonder, is it the coaching, or are these guys just not that good???

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03-22-2005, 01:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil
"Bishai,Stoll,Petersen,Wright,Salmelainen" add in Torres as a late addition, and where's the offense??? IMO excuses just aren't cutting it. ... you've got to wonder, is it the coaching, or are these guys just not that good???
To me, it's looking like the latter, at least in regards to Petersen, Wright, and Bishai. Your fine rant still applies to the other guys, but I was singling out Petersen and Wright for questioning how sharp the criticism should be. At this point based on this data its looking like Hunter may be just a better (ES) player than Petersen, Wright, or Bishai. I guess I'm just not expecting as much from this trio but the hard opposition rankings gave me a little more respect for the jobs Petersen and Wright are doing. You don't see Bishai on the top opposition list, do you? Considering Bishai's scoring clip these two vets appear to be pulling their weight better.

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03-22-2005, 01:52 PM
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oilswell: My bad, the data above was errant. Just swap the 'Bishai' and 'Peterson' names around and your post meshes with the numbers though. :-)

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03-22-2005, 02:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
oilswell: My bad, the data above was errant. Just swap the 'Bishai' and 'Peterson' names around and your post meshes with the numbers though. :-)
Oh, that's better, it meshes with my expectations better now and I can get the hate-on going again for Petersen!

And Baum now on the "honorable mention" roll, so that's an added bonus.

Ah, the day is suddenly brighter here!

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03-22-2005, 07:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
Of note: JJ Hunter just keeps getting the tough assignments. And he's not getting outscored. Impressive stuff. If he's strong enough and/or fast enough you'd think he'll be an NHLer for much his prime years (25 thru 30 or so).
This is terrific stuff. Hunter is a guy who clearly has passed some C this year. On the down side is the fact that he will turn 25 fairly soon and that the Runners weren't exactly strong down the middle.

The thing that really jumps out at me is Jarret Stoll. I'm a fan, but if he's playing these kinds of minutes and not performing better then he might be more 4th liner than 3rd liner moving forward.

Something to add to the information we already have on Stoll.

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03-22-2005, 08:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowetide
This is terrific stuff. Hunter is a guy who clearly has passed some C this year. On the down side is the fact that he will turn 25 fairly soon and that the Runners weren't exactly strong down the middle.

The thing that really jumps out at me is Jarret Stoll. I'm a fan, but if he's playing these kinds of minutes and not performing better then he might be more 4th liner than 3rd liner moving forward.

Something to add to the information we already have on Stoll.
Well, I've never been convinced that Stoll can bring enough offence to be anything more than a depth player at the NHL level. But in fairness to him this year he did have a serious leg injury a while ago.

Here's the list of Runners and how I would rank them as 5on5 players this season. Just going by the numbers (I didn't see enough games to know if guys were hurt or playing with Torres when he was hot ... but not later when he struggled ... so zero nuance here) G2K or someone can jump in and add commentary.

Amyhoo ... all things considered, 5on5 ... this is how I'd rank 'em.

Code:
	name		EV+	EV-	OPP DIFF	teammates
						
14	Torres		31	18	1	2
8	Salmelai		33	23	7	3
22	Mrozik		40	32	6	2
25	Hunter		23	20	11	-1
6	Smith		34	29	3	0
28	Platt		22	16	0	1
10	Winchest		29	25	6	1
36	Roy		26	20	8	3
16	Stoll		25	18	2	3
15	Baum		12	11	7	-1
38	Bishai		24	21	9	2
21	Brodziak		19	16	-1	0
5	Woywitk		33	34	6	2
7	Lynch		23	27	5	0
20	Petersen		24	31	4	1
24	Wright		24	31	6	2
2	Thompso		19	31	5	0

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03-22-2005, 08:23 PM
  #11
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Hunter's an easy guy to like

there was a post here earlier asking us to pick an unsung guy who might make the league and I picked JJ. Everytime I've watched him he works like a dog and plays close attention defensively.

Back when I gave two f**ks about hockey I'd watch all the Runners game when they visited and I'd just pick certain shifts where I'd watch one player and how he reacts. I've rarely been wrong when I've gone out on a limb to say a guy will be a solid pro.

I hope Hunter continues that streak!!!

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03-22-2005, 08:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matts
there was a post here earlier asking us to pick an unsung guy who might make the league and I picked JJ. Everytime I've watched him he works like a dog and plays close attention defensively.

Back when I gave two f**ks about hockey I'd watch all the Runners game when they visited and I'd just pick certain shifts where I'd watch one player and how he reacts. I've rarely been wrong when I've gone out on a limb to say a guy will be a solid pro.

I hope Hunter continues that streak!!!
Ya, the people who go to the games seem to like him a lot as a player. OilFan47 above and a few others here by my memory.

I didn't realize he was already 25 years old though ... he hasn't got a lot of time left to crack the NHL.

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03-22-2005, 08:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
Ya, the people who go to the games seem to like him a lot as a player. OilFan47 above and a few others here by my memory.

I didn't realize he was already 25 years old though ... he hasn't got a lot of time left to crack the NHL.
Wasn't Pisani 27 or 28 when he made the team?

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03-22-2005, 09:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smyth2York
Wasn't Pisani 27 or 28 when he made the team?
26... But it doesn't change the fact that late bloomers like this are rare.

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