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Old
03-09-2013, 11:10 AM
  #651
Dolph Ziggler
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Just acquired Bobby Ryan for David Perron + on NHL 13.

If only it was real life....

On a side note, what would you give up for Ryan? I think he's what we hope Tarasenko will be.

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03-09-2013, 11:37 AM
  #652
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Originally Posted by The Inglorious One View Post
Just acquired Bobby Ryan for David Perron + on NHL 13.

If only it was real life....

On a side note, what would you give up for Ryan? I think he's what we hope Tarasenko will be.
I like Ryan a lot, but if the Blues have an extra $5.56 million to spend and the expendable assets to acquire a guy like that, they simply have bigger holes to fill.

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03-09-2013, 10:08 PM
  #653
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Just my speculation, but I bet we aren't going to sign Arnott. Steen and McDonald look close, and Tarasenko can at least see the light at the end of the tunnel.

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03-09-2013, 10:11 PM
  #654
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Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 View Post
Just my speculation, but I bet we aren't going to sign Arnott. Steen and McDonald look close, and Tarasenko can at least see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Scoring 14 goals in 3 games with three scoring forwards due back before the end of the season will certainly make the need for Arnott less. Sobotka getting a hat trick on the third line and 6 goals in 5 games is a big statement for him wanting that job.

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03-09-2013, 10:21 PM
  #655
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Scoring 14 goals in 3 games with three scoring forwards due back before the end of the season will certainly make the need for Arnott less. Sobotka getting a hat trick on the third line and 6 goals in 5 games is a big statement for him wanting that job.
I was trying to figure out a way that Steen slides back onto the wing on the Backes line when he comes back, and Sobotka (for lack of a better option) stays at 3rd line center.

That will limit Schwartz's minutes again....which I think its probably good for the long-term this season, although I'm pleased with how he responded to the top line role.

Perron-Berglund-Stewart has to be kept intact.
Backes-Oshie seems fine, but not convinced Schwartz can do what Steen can do on their wing.
The only problem is then I get:
McDonald-Sobotka-Tarasenko on the 3rd line. That line may be too small, but McDonald probably needs a diminished role now anyway, so they can be protected to some degree.

Here's what I see with a healthy roster now:
Steen-Backes-Oshie
Perron-Berglund-Stewart
McDonald-Sobotka-Tarasenko
Porter-Nichol-Reaves

scratch D'Agostini and Cracknell (or send Cracknell down and keep Elliott/Allen both on the roster). I'd like to end the Steen as a center experiment, and see if that 3rd line can be effective or if they're too small and too easy to push around.

EDIT: Crap I left Schwartz off completely....let me redo that.

EDIT AGAIN: Hell, I can't figure it out, unless Schwartz moves to center. No way Tarasenko and Schwartz go on the same line, is there? IS THERE?

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03-09-2013, 10:29 PM
  #656
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I think Schwartz stays with Backes and Oshie until his energy level drops.

Even though I love Sobotka, his hot streak of production won't last and when it stops, he is just a 4th liner that can fill in on the top 9.

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03-09-2013, 10:47 PM
  #657
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Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 View Post
I think Schwartz stays with Backes and Oshie until his energy level drops.

Even though I love Sobotka, his hot streak of production won't last and when it stops, he is just a 4th liner that can fill in on the top 9.
I strongly disagree. Sobotka, on most teams, is definitely a 3rd liner.

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03-09-2013, 10:48 PM
  #658
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Originally Posted by OCTA8ON View Post
I strongly disagree. Sobotka, on most teams, is definitely a 3rd liner.
We aren't most teams, and if we had a 1st line that we could rely on night in and night out, then I would agree. He's kind of like McClement just completely different styles. Plays very hard with very good defense and shows good offensive potential, but production just isn't there over a full season.

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03-09-2013, 10:52 PM
  #659
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Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 View Post
We aren't most teams, and if we had a 1st line that we could rely on night in and night out, then I would agree. He's kind of like McClement just completely different styles. Plays very hard with very good defense and shows good offensive potential, but production just isn't there over a full season.
Well, when you say 4th liner, the meaning behind that is "generic 4th liner" opposed to a "St. Louis Blues 4th liner." Also, when Steen, McDonald, and Tarasenko come back, I would rather have Sobotka in the top 9 than Schwartz. Sobotka plays a much stronger and mature game at this point in time than Schwartz.

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03-09-2013, 11:01 PM
  #660
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Originally Posted by OCTA8ON View Post
Well, when you say 4th liner, the meaning behind that is "generic 4th liner" opposed to a "St. Louis Blues 4th liner." Also, when Steen, McDonald, and Tarasenko come back, I would rather have Sobotka in the top 9 than Schwartz. Sobotka plays a much stronger and mature game at this point in time than Schwartz.
I still think he is best served as a 4th liner on any contending team, similar to McClement. He's good for about 20-30 points as a fill in for the top 9. It's not a bad thing because great teams need their Sobotka's, he just shouldn't be a full time top 9 player IMO.

As for Schwartz, there really isn't anything about his game that's immature, and Schwartz can make things happen offensively that Sobotka just can't. Schwartz's offensive IQ is one of the highest on the team.

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03-09-2013, 11:03 PM
  #661
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Originally Posted by 2 Minute Minor View Post
Here's what I see with a healthy roster now:
Steen-Backes-Oshie
Perron-Berglund-Stewart
McDonald-Sobotka-Tarasenko
Porter-Nichol-Reaves
I agree with this. Sobotka has shown up to practically all over our games and has established his presence on the ice in some way or another. He needs to be in the top 9 somewhere and deserves it over Schwartz. Sobotka doesn't get thrown like a rag doll every other second. He is a pinball out there and can play better as a center than Steen at this point. Sobotka's energy and physicality are what we need to even think about beating teams like LA.

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03-09-2013, 11:08 PM
  #662
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Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 View Post
I still think he is best served as a 4th liner on any contending team, similar to McClement. He's good for about 20-30 points as a fill in for the top 9. It's not a bad thing because great teams need their Sobotka's, he just shouldn't be a full time top 9 player IMO.

As for Schwartz, there really isn't anything about his game that's immature, and Schwartz can make things happen offensively that Sobotka just can't. Schwartz's offensive IQ is one of the highest on the team.
I disagree. Schwartz hustles out there every night, and I can definitely see that, but Sobotka is a much stronger player right now and isn't getting thrown around and knocked off the puck. That's why Sobotka is a more mature player at this point. Also, if you look around many teams in the league, they have players like Carcillo, Dwight King, Trevor Lewis and other less effective players in the league playing 3rd line.

Schwartz's natural playmaking ability does not show up consistently. It probably will someday, but all I see from a game to game observation is just hustle and forcing occasional turnovers. Sobotka this season has 40 shots on goal whereas Schwartz has 22 shots, and Sobotka has twice as many points while playing with less talented linemates.

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03-09-2013, 11:20 PM
  #663
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If we had a Kopitar, Carter, Richards, Toews, Kane, or Hossa, then yes we would have Sobotka on the 3rd and be just fine. Teams like that can get away with those players in the top 9 because their top end talent is just that good to make up for it.

I really don't care though, we both have our own opinions and everyone knows how this will end.

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03-09-2013, 11:24 PM
  #664
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Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 View Post
If we had a Kopitar, Carter, Richards, Toews, Kane, or Hossa, then yes we would have Sobotka on the 3rd and be just fine. Teams like that can get away with those players in the top 9 because their top end talent is just that good to make up for it.

I really don't care though, we both have our own opinions and everyone knows how this will end.
No, I think we were having a rather decent conversation. I just think Schwartz's game is very raw and underdeveloped at this stage. Of course Schwartz will be a better player in a couple of years, but I just think Sobotka is an all around more effective player that has been showing up every single night. If you think otherwise, that's fine.

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03-09-2013, 11:28 PM
  #665
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No, I think we were having a rather decent conversation. I just think Schwartz's game is very raw and underdeveloped at this stage. Of course Schwartz will be a better player in a couple of years, but I just think Sobotka is an all around more effective player that has been showing up every single night. If you think otherwise, that's fine.
I think with how much progress Schwartz has made over the past month has been incredible. I think the organization would want their rookie to continue to progress faster where as Sobotka has hit his ceiling, and Schwartz has proved he can play on the top line no problem.

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03-09-2013, 11:35 PM
  #666
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I think with how much progress Schwartz has made over the past month has been incredible. I think the organization would want their rookie to continue to progress faster where as Sobotka has hit his ceiling, and Schwartz has proved he can play on the top line no problem.
I agree with everyone you said except that Sobotka has hit his ceiling. If you adjust the rate of sobotka's play from this season to a full 82 game season, he is a 40 point player with 20 or so goals. That's much better than last season or even the season beforehand. He is also more than just putting up points. He is bringing energy and wearing his emotions on his sleeve every single night. During seasons like this, you play the player who is playing better, and Sobotka has been better than Schwartz, but if you disagree, then that is fine. You shouldn't feel the need to agree with me or anything.

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03-09-2013, 11:50 PM
  #667
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The thing I have noticed the most about Schwartz is when he is on a line with better players, his play seems to get better exponentially. When he is on the 4th line, he plays like a 4th liner.

I don't know if he was trying to play a "checking" role on the 4th line earlier in the year but he wasn't very good at it. Sure, he showed some hustle, but he is more cut out for a top 9 style of play (maybe top 6)

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03-09-2013, 11:51 PM
  #668
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Originally Posted by OCTA8ON View Post
I agree with everyone you said except that Sobotka has hit his ceiling. If you adjust the rate of sobotka's play from this season to a full 82 game season, he is a 40 point player with 20 or so goals. That's much better than last season or even the season beforehand. He is also more than just putting up points. He is bringing energy and wearing his emotions on his sleeve every single night. During seasons like this, you play the player who is playing better, and Sobotka has been better than Schwartz, but if you disagree, then that is fine. You shouldn't feel the need to agree with me or anything.
Sobotka is hot right now and has been solid this season, but he simply doesn't have the offensive skills to be anything more than a 3rd/4th line player.

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03-10-2013, 12:03 AM
  #669
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Originally Posted by Bluesman91 View Post
Sobotka is hot right now and has been solid this season, but he simply doesn't have the offensive skills to be anything more than a 3rd/4th line player.
I think Sobotka should be on our 3rd line and nothing higher, but if Tarasenko, McDonald, and Steen come back, and if the playoffs started tomorrow, Sobotka gets to play in the top 9 and Schwartz doesn't. Schwartz hustles but does not have the physical effect that Sobotka has. Also, Sobotka has been creating scoring opportunities without the help of Backes and Oshie, so don't forget that either.

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03-10-2013, 03:05 AM
  #670
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I agree with everyone you said except that Sobotka has hit his ceiling. If you adjust the rate of sobotka's play from this season to a full 82 game season, he is a 40 point player with 20 or so goals. That's much better than last season or even the season beforehand. He is also more than just putting up points. He is bringing energy and wearing his emotions on his sleeve every single night. During seasons like this, you play the player who is playing better, and Sobotka has been better than Schwartz, but if you disagree, then that is fine. You shouldn't feel the need to agree with me or anything.
Dude Sobo had scored something like 5 goals on 8 shots in 6 games. Yes Sobo is very versatile, but I doubt he ever has a streak like this again. He had like 22 goals in 295 games. You don't think he has hit his ceiling? crazy

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03-10-2013, 03:13 AM
  #671
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Giordano
Kiprusoff

for

Cole
Halak
Medium-caliber future: 2d/3d/decent but not top prospect (e.g., Fairchild, Lehtera)

Analysis:

Kiprusoff has a 5.83M cap hit which rules out many teams for a trade (obvs not the Blues). HOWEVER he only makes 1.5M next year, the last one on his deal. This season the pro-rated portion of 5M at the deadline would be something like 800K. Giordano's deal is 4M/yr for the next three years and cap hit is almost the exact same. Halak is due to make 4.5M next year and then be UFA, but there'd be no reason Calgary wouldn't sign him to a deal in that ballpark unless he implodes beforehand.

Giordano and Kiprusoff's combined cap hit: 9.853M next year. Halak and Cole would probably be ~5M cap hit next year, as Halak is 3.75M and Cole is 1.3M now (but won't be due any sizeable raise). However, Giordano and Kiprusoff earn 5.5M in real dollars next year where Halak + Cole would earn closer to 6M in real dollars (4.5M + ~1.5M). After next year, if Allen's ready give him the starter job, and if not sign Kiprusoff for another two years at a more reasonable cap hit.

This whole idea depends on whether the Blues get a long, good enough look at Jake Allen and decide they can turn over a starter's job to him (or 1A/1B platoon) in the 14-15 season. We don't know what management thinks of Allen and Halak long term. But let's say they're thinking about it right now and realize that when Halak hits UFA at the end of next year, his salary is going to be sizeable. He's already the highest-paid Blue currently. He has also been gimped up and directly harmed the team each of the last three years with the gimpup. In 10-11 the Blues were in playoff position on New Year's Day but had a collapse in January when Halak struggled and was hurt. 11-12, the playoffs. 13, just recently including the moments-before-puck-drop stunt. They could conclude that having a injury period every single year for a guy making 4.5M is not how a budget team can afford goalies.

Calgary gets a huge assist in the cap room department while paying roughly the same dollars. Going from Kiprusoff to Halak for them is the carrot. Sure, they could try to move Kiprusoff at the deadline and maybe get a 1st, but that's the "rebuild" thing Feaster has been loath to do. Getting Halak as the return rather than a 1st is getting a goalie in his prime, plus 4.85M cap savings. It's a hockey trade.

Obviously Giordano to Cole is a downgrade by more than Kiprusoff to Halak is a organizational upgrade (due to the 9 year age difference), so we balance with futures, but not a top prospect or a 1st. Then the Blues still have both Rattie and Jaskin in the pipeline, along with 5 locked-in defenders: Petro, Shattenkirk, Giordano, Jackman, Polak. They can use the 6/7 spot as an "element" spot (toughness, PMD, etc.). Using 6/7 as an element spot means some of the up and comers like Edmundson, Hakanpaa, Cundari, Fairchild (different elements) can be pulled into the lineup without having to handle huge responsibility right away. The Blues could retain Russell depending on how he rebounds, or they might go after one of the free agent NCAA upperclassmen defenders getting talked about now.

So for the Blues it's salary-neutral, gives you a solid veteran who's still good enough to have posted a .921 playing 70 games last year, a guy who Allen can back up (or Elliott, if he regains his confident form), and it fixes the LHD situation. He's having a similar year to Halak right now, though Calgary is a clearly worse team than the Blues. What you lose there is the attachment to Halak being the franchise netminder. Many of our fans have this, IMO a bit undeservedly.

I suspect I'll get an "anti-Halak" rap for suggesting this, and it's not that as much as two factors: 1) IF Armstrong et.al. think Allen can be the guy sooner rather than later and 2) Halak's iffy injury history plus his status as highest paid Blue make him a risky guy to make your franchise netminder. If those are things Armstrong is thinking about, the Blues would actually make a decent trading partner with Calgary.

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03-10-2013, 03:37 AM
  #672
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Think Cole plus Halak would be enough incentive. Don't think we would have to add, they get younger and cheaper as is. And yeah it depends if Armstrong thinks Allen is ready for backup duty for at least a year and maybe if Kipper retires think Allen will be ready by then? Also I haven't watched Kipper this year at all and I know the Flames aren't a very good team but is he at least looking good? His stats are as bad as our goalies' stats this year.

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03-10-2013, 03:46 AM
  #673
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Let's see what this does for us salary-wise next year, and try the lineup on for size:

McDonald, Langenbrunner and D'Agostini save you 7.25M.
Going from Halak to Kiprusoff saves you 3M.

TOTAL scheduled raises to players already under contract (but obvs excluding Halak's 250K raise) cost you 3.325M.
Going from Cole to Giordano costs you 3.125M.

For ease of calculation and because of its relatively negligible difference, the Nichols, Porters and Reddens of the world will either be back in those roles for similar contracts or replaced by others with similar contracts.

Net the above all out and you're saving 3.8M. If Allen supplants Elliott entirely on the roster then make it a 4.8M savings in real dollars.

But wait, of course. There's Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Berglund and Stewart to consider. Berglund and Stewart make 5.4M in combined dollars now. If they each sign contracts in the Oshie/Perron ballpark, that's probably 7.6M in real dollars or so the first year and closer to 8M combined on average as their deals progress. So now we've got ~1.6M still in net savings before the Petro/Shattenkirk deals, but we have fixed the LHD issue and are a significantly stronger team because of it.

Petro and Shattenkirk make 1.6625M combined plus bonuses (some of which will be reached). Obviously this could be a huge combined bump, something on the order of ~8M difference the first year (minus the ELC bonuses they reach). But this was always going to happen. They offered Matt Carle at least 5M/year in the offseason and made a pitch to Garrison, and they knew at the time they had Petro/Shatty raises to attend. So I can assume there's been some forward budget projections. It would be something like:

1.6M carryover savings + 1.66M + real dollar ELC bonuses earned versus the real dollar amounts of their new deals. The gap might be in the 5.0M-6.5M range – thus, this would be the amount the payroll would increase next season versus this season. Again, they offered Matt Carle about this ballpark of money, so it's not automatic they can't handle the jump. Now we see why more playoff home dates matter.

Next year (don't worry too much about the projected lines they're just for example):

Schwartz-Backes-Oshie
Perron-Berglund-Stewart
Steen-Lehtera/Sobotka-Tarasenko
Sobotka/Porter-Nichol-Reaves
(Porter, Cracknell, etc.)

Peoria: Jaskin, Rattie

Giordano-Pietrangelo
Jackman-Shattenkirk
xxxx-Polak
xxxx

Peoria: Edmundson, Hakanpaa, Fairchild, Cundari ... Schmaltz at North Dakota.

Kiprusoff
Allen/Elliott

Peoria: Binnington


Last edited by PocketNines: 03-10-2013 at 04:00 AM.
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03-10-2013, 03:57 AM
  #674
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluesman91 View Post
Think Cole plus Halak would be enough incentive. Don't think we would have to add, they get younger and cheaper as is. And yeah it depends if Armstrong thinks Allen is ready for backup duty for at least a year and maybe if Kipper retires think Allen will be ready by then? Also I haven't watched Kipper this year at all and I know the Flames aren't a very good team but is he at least looking good? His stats are as bad as our goalies' stats this year.
Yep, he's off to the kind of start Halak is. Both Halak and Kiprusoff posted strong years last year, and Kiprusoff handled ~25 more games despite his age. The risk is he has secretly fallen off the cliff and is done; IMO 36 is older but not ancient in goalie terms, particularly for goalies who've had long, successful careers in both regular and postseason.

What I especially like is what if he secretly is finished? Well, the Blues can handle the cap hit issue and if they waive him and his 1.5M salary next year then they can go the same route the took to get Halak trade a solid prospect (and since Rattie doesn't get shipped in this deal, they have all of Schmaltz, Rattie, Jaskin, Hakanpaa and Edmundson, plus whatever strong picks in the 2013 draft they snatch available to offer in that kind of deal.

Again, this kind of thing only happens in the first place if Allen's extended looks this year translate to them thinking he'll progress into the starter role sooner rather than later. If that's the plan (and it might be) then IF the worst case happened with Kiprusoff, the acquired goalie in a new Eller type trade wouldn't have to be some bigtime #1, just someone who can be solid and give the team a chance to win til Allen assumes the starter role.

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03-10-2013, 04:08 AM
  #675
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Also I should mention that while the jump would be around 6M more in payroll versus this year, everybody would then be fairly locked up and stable and only a small handful of guys (Schwartz, Tarasenko, Allen) would not be close to or at their peak contract earnings. Thus, going forward, if the team keeps paying for itself with long playoff runs, they might not have to trade anyone, but if they still had to move one of the 4.0M-4.5M AAV contracts for the savings later on, the prospect cupboard is STOCKED. Yeah, they should still work on developing/acquiring another skilled two way center, but they would have so much versatility to do it and they'd still be a mid-pack payroll team long term who can afford its players.

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