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Ryan O'Reilly Headed to Offer Sheet or Trade (Part 4)

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Old
02-26-2013, 07:05 AM
  #476
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
It's basically the same value that he was rumored to be getting offered at the deadline.

From a simple logical perspective, teams always give up the most for immediate help at the deadline.
I haven't seen anything suggesting Howsen had the eventual return being offered at deadline. It took waiting until the summer to get it done.

As for O'Reilly: From a simple logical perspective, there are fewer teams that are willing to trade for a player mid-season because a) some of them are already out of it b) cap considerations and c) organizations build their teams in the summer.

I'm not ruling out O'Reilly being traded during the season. If Avs get something they're happy with, they'll trade him. If not, they'll wait until the draft where first round picks come into the equation as potential return (Staal got a 8th overall, Carter got a 9th overall for example).

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02-26-2013, 07:06 AM
  #477
Ugene Malkin
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The problem really lies where ROR has a contract for 2 years overseas for 4.0 a year. I highly doubt the Avs are in the drivers seat here.

A fair hockey trade is warranted, but I think the Avs want more than that or are waiting for there best offer to arise. Holding onto him isn't gonna change the status or ROR's worth, and teams are not that desperate to overpay. Offer sheets are not worth the chance for GM's and ROR wouldn't sign one if it meant going back to the Avs.

I'll wait for the fair hockey trade. It really doesn't benefit either party to drag this out for years.

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Old
02-26-2013, 07:07 AM
  #478
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ugene Malkin View Post
The problem really lies where ROR has a contract for 2 years overseas for 4.0 a year. I highly doubt the Avs are in the drivers seat here.

A fair hockey trade is warranted, but I think the Avs want more than that or are waiting for there best offer to arise. Holding onto him isn't gonna change the status or ROR's worth, and teams are not that desperate to overpay. Offer sheets are not worth the chance for GM's and ROR wouldn't sign one if it meant going back to the Avs.

I'll wait for the fair hockey trade. It really doesn't benefit either party to drag this out for years.
That contract has been terminated by the team (nor was any salary figure ever reported) so it's a non-factor.

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Old
02-26-2013, 07:08 AM
  #479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
From a simple logical perspective, teams always give up the most for immediate help at the deadline.
An old writing prof once told me that if you open your sentence with a clause like yours above (or the word obviously, clearly, etc.) weak, conclusory "logic" is about to follow.

Your statement might be true when it's a team dealing futures for playoff help. Probably not the case when the sought after return is a core asset.

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02-26-2013, 07:08 AM
  #480
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ugene Malkin View Post
The problem really lies where ROR has a contract for 2 years overseas for 4.0 a year. I highly doubt the Avs are in the drivers seat here.

A fair hockey trade is warranted, but I think the Avs want more than that or are waiting for there best offer to arise. Holding onto him isn't gonna change the status or ROR's worth, and teams are not that desperate to overpay. Offer sheets are not worth the chance for GM's and ROR wouldn't sign one if it meant going back to the Avs.

I'll wait for the fair hockey trade. It really doesn't benefit either party to drag this out for years.

.....
The contract was ripped to shreds a month ago.
ROR is right now practicing with a junior team in London..

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Old
02-26-2013, 07:09 AM
  #481
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Quote:
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25 is generous I'd say.
Love the guy but there are a lot of players I'd take before. Especially if talking overall market value, potential and contract and all.

I just wish they'd take some middle ground deal for a year and get him out there playing and either showing his value to management for a larger contract next year or showing him off to other teams.

It'll end up being an interesting 'What if' scenario for years. Every Avs fan will just think of it as this weird time where everything was supposed to be on the upswing then a heart and soul player up and pulls this. Some team is going to be very happy with him and Colorado will be out an important asset for less than market value because of all of this drama.
TOP 15 ELITE
  1. Ryan Getzlaf ANA
  2. Patrice Bergeron BOS
  3. Eric Staal CAR
  4. Jonathan Toews CHI
  5. Jamie Benn DAL
  6. Pavel Datsyuk DET
  7. Anze Kopitar LAK
  8. John Tavares NYI
  9. Sidney Crosby PIT
  10. Evgeni Malkin PIT
  11. Joe Thornton SJS
  12. Steven Stamkkos TBL
  13. Vincent Lecavalier TBL
  14. Henrik Sedin VAN
  15. Nicklas Backstrom WAS

THE NEXT 32 (16-47)
  1. Saku Koivu ANA
  2. David Krejci BOS
  3. Tyler Seguin BOS
  4. Cody Hodgson BUF
  5. Tyler Ennis BUF
  6. Derek Roy BUF
  7. Jordan Staal CAR
  8. Mike Cammalleri CGY
  9. Matt Duchene COL
  10. Paul Stastny COL
  11. Valtteri Filppula DET
  12. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins EDM
  13. Jonathan Huberdeau FLA
  14. Jeff Carter LAK
  15. Mike Richards LAK
  16. Mikko Koivu MIN
  17. Tomas Plekanec MTL
  18. Alex Galchenyuk MTL
  19. Colin Wilson NAS
  20. Travis Zajac NJD
  21. Brad Richards NYR
  22. Sean Couturier PHI
  23. Joe Pavelski SJS
  24. Logan Couture SJS
  25. Logan Couture SJS
  26. David Backes STL
  27. Patrik Berglund STL
  28. Tyler Bozak TOR
  29. Ryan Kesler VAN
  30. Bryan Little WPG
  31. Alexander Burmistrov WPG
  32. Mike Ribeiro WSH

MID TIER (48-69)
  1. Steve Ott BUF
  2. Brandon Dubinsky CBJ
  3. Artem Anisimov CBJ
  4. Jiri Hudler CGY
  5. John Mitchell COL
  6. Damien Brunner DET
  7. Sam Gagner EDM
  8. Peter Mueller FLA
  9. Stephen Weiss FLA
  10. Mikael Granlund MIN
  11. David Desharnais MTL
  12. Adam Henrique NJD
  13. Derek Stepan NYR
  14. Kyle Turris OTT
  15. Brayden Schenn PHI
  16. Martin Hanzal PHX
  17. Brandon Sutter PIT
  18. Patrik Berglund STL
  19. Cory Conacher TBL
  20. Nazem Kadri TOR
  21. Mikhail Grabovski TOR
  22. Nik Antropov WPG

ROR is in the mid 30s...

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Old
02-26-2013, 07:11 AM
  #482
Ugene Malkin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
I haven't seen anything suggesting Howsen had the eventual return being offered at deadline. It took waiting until the summer to get it done.

As for O'Reilly: From a simple logical perspective, there are fewer teams that are willing to trade for a player mid-season because a) some of them are already out of it b) cap considerations and c) organizations build their teams in the summer.

I'm not ruling out O'Reilly being traded during the season. If Avs get something they're happy with, they'll trade him. If not, they'll wait until the draft where first round picks come into the equation as potential return (Staal got a 8th, Carter got a 9th for example).
If I'm a team with a top 10 pick I'm not wasting it on, ROR. Staal has been around the block a few times. It'll cost less to draft a, ROR.

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Old
02-26-2013, 07:14 AM
  #483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoemAvs View Post
.....
The contract was ripped to shreds a month ago.
ROR is right now practicing with a junior team in London..
Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
That contract has been terminated by the team (nor was any salary figure ever reported) so it's a non-factor.
My bad, how I forgot this, something I did know. Oh well.

Carry on.


Last edited by Ugene Malkin: 02-26-2013 at 07:32 AM.
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Old
02-26-2013, 07:14 AM
  #484
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ugene Malkin View Post
If I'm a team with a top 10 pick I'm not wasting it on, ROR. Staal has been around the block a few times. It'll cost less to draft a, ROR.
Draft picks are awesome.

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Old
02-26-2013, 07:21 AM
  #485
Ugene Malkin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
Draft picks are awesome.
They are in a pretty deep draft. That player would have to be pretty darn special to give up a top 10. ROR is a very good player here, but he's only just starting out here, and over paying while potentially having to pay an inflated salary seem very prudent to you? For a any GM? For their top ten pick?

They won't be getting a top ten unless it's that as the main value back.

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02-26-2013, 07:24 AM
  #486
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Draft picks win Cups.

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Old
02-26-2013, 07:26 AM
  #487
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I can't really see Colorado getting a better offer as this drags on other than people finding out the value of their assets (picks, mostly...)

Their holding out could also backfire. If the rumour is true that they asked one thing of Ottawa, Ottawa agreed to the terms, and then Colorado came back and upped their offer (presumably after Karlsson got injured) they might end up losing what was on the table in the first place. Zibanejad has really elevated his play (rumoured to be in the deal) so the longer he plays well perhaps the less likely Murray is to trade him.

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Old
02-26-2013, 07:28 AM
  #488
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
I can't really see Colorado getting a better offer as this drags on other than people finding out the value of their assets (picks, mostly...)

Their holding out could also backfire. If the rumour is true that they asked one thing of Ottawa, Ottawa agreed to the terms, and then Colorado came back and upped their offer (presumably after Karlsson got injured) they might end up losing what was on the table in the first place. Zibanejad has really elevated his play (rumoured to be in the deal) so the longer he plays well perhaps the less likely Murray is to trade him.
Honestly, I don't think it'll change things much. If anything, I'd expect some of their dancing partners are less likely to give up picks, because of uncertainty with where they'll fall.

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02-26-2013, 07:43 AM
  #489
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ugene Malkin View Post
They are in a pretty deep draft. That player would have to be pretty darn special to give up a top 10. ROR is a very good player here, but he's only just starting out here, and over paying while potentially having to pay an inflated salary seem very prudent to you? For a any GM? For their top ten pick?

They won't be getting a top ten unless it's that as the main value back.
I think HF wildly overrates draft picks. Picks from 6th-10th, while valuable, historically are a bit hit and miss. Any team with a pick like that would trade that for O'Reilly without hesitation.

Here's the players picked there from 2000-2008, which will give you an idea what kind of player you can expect to get with a pick like that.

Scott Hartnell
Lars Jonsson
Nikita Alexeev
Brent Krahn
Mikhail Yakubov

Mikko Koivu
Mike Komisarek
Pascal Leclaire
Tuomo Ruutu
Dan Blackburn

Scottie Upshall
Joffrey Lupul
Pierre-Marc Bouchard
Petr Taticek
Eric Nystrom

Milan Michalek
Ryan Suter
Braydon Coburn
Dion Phaneuf
Andrei Kostitsyn

Al Montoya
Rostislav Olesz
Alexandre Picard
Ladislav Smid
Boris Valabik

Gilbert Brule
Jack Skille
Devin Setoguchi
Brian Lee
Luc Bourdon

Derick Brassard
Kyle Okposo
Peter Mueller
James Sheppard
Michael Frolik

Sam Gagner
Jakub Voracek
Zach Hamill
Logan Couture
Keaton Ellerby

Nikita Filatov
Colin Wilson
Mikkel Boedker
Josh Bailey
Cody Hodgson

There are not all that many players in this list I would, knowing what I now know, would trade for O'Reilly even if I could get them at the same age as O'Reilly. Suter, Couture and Koivu are the obvious ones.

Top five picks do have much more value and teams usually go Gollum over theirs, so that is a completely different issue.

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02-26-2013, 07:51 AM
  #490
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If you're looking at 1st round picks, this thread is a must-read.

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1298875

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02-26-2013, 07:51 AM
  #491
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
I think HF wildly overrates draft picks. Picks from 6th-10th, while valuable, historically are a bit hit and miss. Any team with a pick like that would trade that for O'Reilly without hesitation.

Here's the players picked there from 2000-2008, which will give you an idea what kind of player you can expect to get with a pick like that.

Scott Hartnell
Lars Jonsson
Nikita Alexeev
Brent Krahn
Mikhail Yakubov

Mikko Koivu
Mike Komisarek
Pascal Leclaire
Tuomo Ruutu
Dan Blackburn

Scottie Upshall
Joffrey Lupul
Pierre-Marc Bouchard
Petr Taticek
Eric Nystrom

Milan Michalek
Ryan Suter
Braydon Coburn
Dion Phaneuf
Andrei Kostitsyn

Al Montoya
Rostislav Olesz
Alexandre Picard
Ladislav Smid
Boris Valabik

Gilbert Brule
Jack Skille
Devin Setoguchi
Brian Lee
Luc Bourdon

Derick Brassard
Kyle Okposo
Peter Mueller
James Sheppard
Michael Frolik

Sam Gagner
Jakub Voracek
Zach Hamill
Logan Couture
Keaton Ellerby

Nikita Filatov
Colin Wilson
Mikkel Boedker
Josh Bailey
Cody Hodgson

There are not all that many players in this list I would, knowing what I now know, would trade for O'Reilly even if I could get them at the same age as O'Reilly. Suter, Couture and Koivu are the obvious ones.

Top five picks do have much more value and teams usually go Gollum over theirs, so that is a completely different issue.
I've been trying to make this argument for a while. Granted this year's draft is exceptionally deep, but yeah...it's very hard to pick out of the top 5 and draft a guy as good as O'Reilly. People put too much stock in draft picks and prospects and not enough stock in what people have actually accomplished in the NHL.

It's the same thing as people in Ottawa thinking that Zibanejad for O'Reilly would be a bad trade, or the ones that think our 1st overall is untouchable. I trust our scouts and drafting team because they've done a wonderful job for Ottawa already, but if you have the choice between someone that might someday be as good or a bit better than O'Reilly, or actually having him...it should be a no brainer.

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02-26-2013, 08:52 AM
  #492
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
I can't really see Colorado getting a better offer as this drags on other than people finding out the value of their assets (picks, mostly...)

Their holding out could also backfire. If the rumour is true that they asked one thing of Ottawa, Ottawa agreed to the terms, and then Colorado came back and upped their offer (presumably after Karlsson got injured) they might end up losing what was on the table in the first place. Zibanejad has really elevated his play (rumoured to be in the deal) so the longer he plays well perhaps the less likely Murray is to trade him.
I have not heard that Colorado gave Ottawa an offer and then upped it once the basics were set.

I did see that you posted this earlier and the Av fan made the comment about Karlsson and the injury, but the Av fan was making a sarcastic statement that the trade was going to be ROR for Karlsson until Karlsson got injured then the Avs changed the deal. The guy was just trying to be funny but I don't think that the poster had truly heard anything.

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02-26-2013, 09:14 AM
  #493
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThunderBird View Post
I have not heard that Colorado gave Ottawa an offer and then upped it once the basics were set.

I did see that you posted this earlier and the Av fan made the comment about Karlsson and the injury, but the Av fan was making a sarcastic statement that the trade was going to be ROR for Karlsson until Karlsson got injured then the Avs changed the deal. The guy was just trying to be funny but I don't think that the poster had truly heard anything.
I'm aware that was a joke -- he was replying to my initial post about the rumour. The rumour itself came from the Sens board, but as I said to be taken with a grain of salt. I don't think he has a reason to lie about what he said, but who knows.

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02-26-2013, 09:40 AM
  #494
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
I've been trying to make this argument for a while. Granted this year's draft is exceptionally deep, but yeah...it's very hard to pick out of the top 5 and draft a guy as good as O'Reilly. People put too much stock in draft picks and prospects and not enough stock in what people have actually accomplished in the NHL.

It's the same thing as people in Ottawa thinking that Zibanejad for O'Reilly would be a bad trade, or the ones that think our 1st overall is untouchable. I trust our scouts and drafting team because they've done a wonderful job for Ottawa already, but if you have the choice between someone that might someday be as good or a bit better than O'Reilly, or actually having him...it should be a no brainer.
You just made up your own scenario....

1) our main requirements are not at center.
2) By all accounts it will take more than Zibinejad.

A more accurate description of the Sens situation would be this:

With Spezza, Turris, Smith, (Zibinejad), O'Brien, Dacosta etc down the middle would a trade of arguably our top prospect (MZ), along with our top puck moving D prospect (Weircoch) who is an important part of the of the puzzle now and going forward would this be the wisest use of our assets.

lets see our top 6 wingers:

Michalek (1 year left, injuries plaguing him)
Alfie (maybe 1 year left)
Silf (going to be great)
who is the 4th? Latendresse, that's why he was brought in.

the future?
Stone (looks to be a good one)
Puempel (who knows)
Prince (maybe)

So right now after next year, this is what we know about our top 6:

Spezza Silfverberg
Turris

Sure we could move Turris to the wing. Instead why dont we leave him where he's most comfortable, at center, and build on that.
Our primary requirements are top line wing talent, followed by another top line wing talent, followed by a top 2/3 defenceman.

Sure you can move guys around and stuff another center into the lineup (on a team that has more centers than anything else), but why?
We have loads of good prospects and tradeable pieces, in the end i dont really mind picking up any player as long as they are elite talents, or key unique pieces that will be here a long time.
You clearly feel O'Reilly is one of those, i simply havent seen enough of him to know.

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02-26-2013, 10:22 AM
  #495
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TOP 15 ELITE
  1. Ryan Getzlaf ANA
  2. Patrice Bergeron BOS
  3. Eric Staal CAR
  4. Jonathan Toews CHI
  5. Jamie Benn DAL
  6. Pavel Datsyuk DET
  7. Anze Kopitar LAK
  8. John Tavares NYI
  9. Sidney Crosby PIT
  10. Evgeni Malkin PIT
  11. Joe Thornton SJS
  12. Steven Stamkkos TBL
  13. Vincent Lecavalier TBL
  14. Henrik Sedin VAN
  15. Nicklas Backstrom WAS

THE NEXT 32 (16-47)
  1. Saku Koivu ANA
  2. David Krejci BOS
  3. Tyler Seguin BOS
  4. Cody Hodgson BUF
  5. Tyler Ennis BUF
  6. Derek Roy BUF
  7. Jordan Staal CAR
  8. Mike Cammalleri CGY
  9. Matt Duchene COL
  10. Paul Stastny COL
  11. Valtteri Filppula DET
  12. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins EDM
  13. Jonathan Huberdeau FLA
  14. Jeff Carter LAK
  15. Mike Richards LAK
  16. Mikko Koivu MIN
  17. Tomas Plekanec MTL
  18. Alex Galchenyuk MTL
  19. Colin Wilson NAS
  20. Travis Zajac NJD
  21. Brad Richards NYR
  22. Sean Couturier PHI
  23. Joe Pavelski SJS
  24. Logan Couture SJS
  25. Logan Couture SJS
  26. David Backes STL
  27. Patrik Berglund STL
  28. Tyler Bozak TOR
  29. Ryan Kesler VAN
  30. Bryan Little WPG
  31. Alexander Burmistrov WPG
  32. Mike Ribeiro WSH

MID TIER (48-69)
  1. Steve Ott BUF
  2. Brandon Dubinsky CBJ
  3. Artem Anisimov CBJ
  4. Jiri Hudler CGY
  5. John Mitchell COL
  6. Damien Brunner DET
  7. Sam Gagner EDM
  8. Peter Mueller FLA
  9. Stephen Weiss FLA
  10. Mikael Granlund MIN
  11. David Desharnais MTL
  12. Adam Henrique NJD
  13. Derek Stepan NYR
  14. Kyle Turris OTT
  15. Brayden Schenn PHI
  16. Martin Hanzal PHX
  17. Brandon Sutter PIT
  18. Patrik Berglund STL
  19. Cory Conacher TBL
  20. Nazem Kadri TOR
  21. Mikhail Grabovski TOR
  22. Nik Antropov WPG

ROR is in the mid 30s...
How is Spezza missing from a top 69 list, let alone the top 15 section.

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02-26-2013, 10:26 AM
  #496
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Pittsburgh won a cup with only one good winger. Zibanejad + Smith (rumoured) for O'Reilly wouldn't be bad asset management.

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02-26-2013, 10:28 AM
  #497
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How is Spezza missing from a top 69 list, let alone the top 15 section.
That is because Logan Couture is so good he makes the list twice.

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02-26-2013, 10:30 AM
  #498
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BBKers View Post

THE NEXT 32 (16-47)
  1. Saku Koivu ANA
  2. David Krejci BOS
  3. Tyler Seguin BOS
  4. Cody Hodgson BUF
  5. Tyler Ennis BUF
  6. Derek Roy BUF
  7. Jordan Staal CAR
  8. Mike Cammalleri CGY
  9. Matt Duchene COL
  10. Paul Stastny COL
  11. Valtteri Filppula DET
  12. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins EDM
  13. Jonathan Huberdeau FLA
  14. Jeff Carter LAK
  15. Mike Richards LAK
  16. Mikko Koivu MIN
  17. Tomas Plekanec MTL
  18. Alex Galchenyuk MTL
  19. Colin Wilson NAS
  20. Travis Zajac NJD
  21. Brad Richards NYR
  22. Sean Couturier PHI
  23. Joe Pavelski SJS
  24. Logan Couture SJS
  25. Logan Couture SJS
  26. David Backes STL
  27. Patrik Berglund STL
  28. Tyler Bozak TOR
  29. Ryan Kesler VAN
  30. Bryan Little WPG
  31. Alexander Burmistrov WPG
  32. Mike Ribeiro WSH
ROR is in the mid 30s...

So, unproven, yet potentially good players like Huberdeau and Galchenyuk are already past Ryan O'Reilly? An aging Saku Koivu is better right now than Ryan O'Reilly? Because by your logic, you're stating that everyone you put in this category, above the "mid 30's" as you put him, you would take over Ryan O'Reilly?

I forgot, he's not in his "teen years" anymore, and at the ripe old age of 22 he's already on his decline.

I know that HF overvalues Picks and Prospects...but sometimes I think they're TOO overvalued.

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02-26-2013, 11:09 AM
  #499
Tripod
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Originally Posted by OttawaGM View Post
How is Spezza missing from a top 69 list, let alone the top 15 section.
lol...Giroux is missing too.

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Old
02-26-2013, 11:12 AM
  #500
Mr Forever
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Originally Posted by Bubba Thudd View Post
Draft picks win Cups.
Hey, Lindros was traded for some picks

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