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Chevy's "5 Year Plan" - What's that Look Like at the End?

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Old
04-02-2013, 11:14 PM
  #1
broinwhyteridge
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Chevy's "5 Year Plan" - What's that Look Like at the End?

I'm just wondering what consensus is on this vaunted 5 Year Plan. I know many people are lock step behind it and yet others want to see something before then.

So what do the Jets (and their results) look like say in June 2016?

Will they be expected to still be a bubble team? Challenging for a bottom 4 position? Looking at 4th place in the West? Something else? Will they be a quick 4 or 5 game chumpstain in round 1? Have decent chance to win a round... maybe go farther?

What I see so far... well, to be frank I don't see a lot of improvement through almost two seasons, but I realize that three years is a huge amount of time in pro sports and literally 75% of the team could be different by year five.

Year 1 (last year)
- Jets overachieve, fall short in the final quarter of the season.
- Chevy needs a full season to evaluate what he has.
- Waiverwirepalooza.
- Team widely held to have a 4th line playing as a 3rd line and 3 of 6 top 6 calibre players and a serious "up and comer" in Kane.
- Off season sees minimal signings in comparison to the teams around the Jets in the East.

Year 2 (now)
- Jets look pretty similar to last year's edition, appear to be falling short in the final quarter of the season.
- Stay the course message from management.
- Waiverwirepalooza 2 : Been There Done That Read The Book Watched the Movie
- Off season signings generally a bust... one traded away after multiple sensationally poor penalties that contribute largely to three losses and the other producing at a career low pace.
- 3% ticket price increase, general increases in pricing across the board.
- [tbd in the remaining 3ish weeks]
- Previously held "important player" moved in off season for picks (?).
- What happens with RFAs Bogosian, Wheeler, Little, etc...?

Year 3
- Jets switch to Western Conference; travel burden normalises somewhat.
- Subtract some of the multitude of 4th liners that didn't produce last year.
- Replace scrubs with [???]... not sure who/what/where/how on this.
- Possible injection of youth into the line-up. Trouba, Scheiffele, ???.
- Listen to plea from team and homer media how expectations need to be kept low because of all the new players... time needed to gel, learn the system, adjust to the competition level, etc....
- x% increase in ticket pricing, more general price increases across the board.
- TBD performance in new division/conference (do they make the playoffs or not?).

Year 4
- Ladd in last year of his contract... what happens?
- ???

Year 5
- ???

What do we (ownership really) need to see by the end of this? What do we expect to see?

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04-02-2013, 11:16 PM
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Wait, has KC ever used the term "five year plan"? I'm not sure if that would be mockery or just irony.

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04-02-2013, 11:19 PM
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Originally Posted by fatschoonerrat View Post
Wait, has KC ever used the term "five year plan"? I'm not sure if that would be mockery or just irony.
I was honestly about to ask the same thing.

Would be pretty presumptuous of an NHL GM to think he has 5 years to fully execute a team building plan. Not that I believe Chevy would be relieved of his duties before then, but if Chevy in fact did use the term "five year plan", that would be pretty concerning.

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04-02-2013, 11:21 PM
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I really don't they overachieved last year. They had had three drafts of their "rebuild" and had some key pieces that had been added the year before in Ladd, Buff, Stuart, and Wheeler. They finished almost the exact spot as the year before. And with the youth improving, improvement should have been expected as the same this year. When you're rebuilding you expect to start improving at some point and this team has struggled to do that the last two seasons.

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04-02-2013, 11:24 PM
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I really don't think we're 5 years away. Hopefully it's a big summer where Chevy can finally put his stamp on the team. That's why I've been keen for him to load up on bullets and stay as flexible as possible.

Be active tomorrow, and more importantly, be active at the draft and in the offseason!

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04-02-2013, 11:24 PM
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I based that off of Chevy having a 5 year contract and the stated desire of building through the draft... that doesn't led itself to a 2 year turnaround being in the cards. I assumed that in being given 5 years on his contract, Chevy would have something approaching that long to demonstrate results that would lead to his next contract. I would think that there would be some team on-ice performance goals set out for the GM to accomplish during the term given.

But... semantics of whether or not he said 5 years or something else... what do people expect the team will be like by the end of Chevy's first contract (if you want to state it another way)?

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04-02-2013, 11:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
I was honestly about to ask the same thing.

Would be pretty presumptuous of an NHL GM to think he has 5 years to fully execute a team building plan. Not that I believe Chevy would be relieved of his duties before then, but if Chevy in fact did use the term "five year plan", that would be pretty concerning.
I've already been through two five-year plans with this franchise. Not sure I have enough valium for another.

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04-02-2013, 11:26 PM
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I never find the term of a coaches or GM's contract to ever be important. They're always either extended or fired before it finishes.

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04-02-2013, 11:33 PM
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Essentially, the on ice product as a whole has been stagnant since the start of the 10-11 season.

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04-02-2013, 11:33 PM
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Well, my educated guess would be:

-much larger prospect pool to draw from
-roster spots being filled by draft picks rather than waiver wire scrubs and UFA dice rolls
-larger and more physical roster on a whole

Beyond that, I can't manage anything other than sheer guesswork. Just way too many variables to take into consideration.

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04-02-2013, 11:59 PM
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Final result after 5 years

Kane - need #1 C - Wheeler
Jokinen (yes resigned let's try him on wing) - Mark - Little
pcow* - pcow* - pcow*
pcow* - pcow* - Burmistrov (can't produce offensively)

Enstrom - Bogo
pcow* - Trouba
Clitsome - pcow*

Pavelec
pcow*

3 more years sell-out in MTSC and lot's of 2-nd and 3-rd rounders as well as lot of cap space eventho Oli was signed to 6mil x 4 years extension

P.S pcow = player claimed of waivers

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04-03-2013, 12:01 AM
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I don't think Jets' over achieved last season.
They were a Fenwick positive team with below average goaltending.

We're a bubble team and that's what teams from the bottom have to be before they can move to the top (if they do end up moving to the top)

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04-03-2013, 12:05 AM
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You have to think about this logically. Start from the beginning, which is actually when the Jets left in 1996. Mark Chipman started studying the NHL extrensively at that point. Every move he made at that point was to get a winning NHL club. The Moose were an extension of that, and they were a winning club as well. How do you think he got David Thompson to buy in? Thompson isn't a chump. Chipman is the reason he bought in, he's not some uneducated owner. If it was anyone else on the planet asking him to buy in for an NHL club in Winnipeg, Thompson would probably laugh.

He brought in Chevy because Chevy is a winner. Look at his record. Claude Noel is also a winner, look at his record. He even had a winning record as interim coach with the Bluejackets after Hitch left. Hitchcock had his only ever losing record with the Bluejackets. Look it up.

Look at what Chevy has had to deal with, and the state of the franchise when he was hired. The Thrashers have drafted 5 NHLers since 2004 inclusive(Little, Bogosian, Kane, Burmistrov in order), and 4 of those were in the 3-12 overall range. Pavelec is the lone exception, he was drafted in the 2nd. Not a winning formula. Getting two NHLers in a draft is considered a home run, and there are teams that get 4.

The prospect pool before the 2011 draft was extremely thin. Postma, Kulda, Redmond, Klingberg, Telegin(remember 2011-2012 was his breakout year in the OHL), Machacek, Pasquale, are the best it had to offer. It was easily the worst prospect pool in the league.

Atlanta also had no development plan. They used the Chicago Wolves as their AHL affiliate, but apparently had little control over their prospects. They also did not own their AHL affiliate, unlike TNSE who do. This is very important.

Years of bad drafting, pulling in the high end prospects too early (especially Burmistrov) had taken its toll on this franchise. Luckily Dudley was able to pull some very shrewd moves and snagged Byfuglien, Ladd, Wheeler, and Stuart. Look at our current lineup, our entire core is made up of those above draft picks and the Dudley trades. Essentially because this team drafted high because they played bad for years, and taking advantage of Chicago stripping them of RFAs for cheap. In other words, the Chicago situation will probably never happen again. We got lucky. Champions don't rely on luck.

Who is the biggest UFA to sign with this franchise? Antropov, Jokinen? Whoopdeedoo. Nobody wants to come to a franchise that cannot draft and develop. Nobody wants to come to a franchise without a long term plan.

Now look at the current situation compared to the past. We have stanley cup winners in Chevy, Ladd, Byfuglien and even Meech. Noel has a great record, he's won the Calder cup and has a winning record wherever he goes. We have stable and very rich ownership. Everyone from the coach to the owner is committed to a long term plan of slow building. Look at teams that are pushed by their owner to win now. Islanders in getting Yashin, Philly last year and right now, it goes on and on. TNSE owns the building, owns the AHL affiliate, and has put in a proper development scheme. Coupled that with a better CBA, and good profits, and you have a long term recipe for success. Unfortunately there's going to be some short term pain. Remember this team moved here a year and a half ago. Management has to sort things out, and fill up our prospect pool.

There's no quick fix schemes because we have very little to offer. You want Pominville? Good luck without moving one of Scheifele or Trouba. The prices have been high since Chevy has been on the scene.

Do you think Kulda, Postma, and Redmond would be NHL ready under the old system? Postma and Redmond have said the help they got from Mccambridge directly lead to their ease of transition at the big club. Going by the Thrashers past history, it's been 12 years since a forward had any sort of impact that was drafted out of the 1st round. There's been a few 1st round busts as well. Going by past history, it's very hard for a non-elite player to make it to the big club, TNSE is trying to change that. But it takes patience.

Jokinen stated when he first came here, the support from TNSE was amazing. He was given a huge book of everything to do around town, and anything he needed was a phone call away. He stated he's never been treated so well by any organization. This is what needs to happen in order to attract UFAs. Our reputation as a bit of a fish bowl and our cold climate means we have to do all those small little steps that no other teams will do. Apparently we also have a team chef, and have three team meals a day at home. Who else does this? All good high quality food:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/spo...200381391.html

Take a look at our current UFA situation. It would be such a shame to lose Hainsey and Antropov for nothing because it would be hard to replace them. We have little depth, and need to get something in return. High end teams don't have this problem. Antropov would be simply told to walk. Hainsey would be kept, but that's because he would want to stay. Does he want to stay with us now? Remember we're talking about a #4 d-man and a #3C! People around here are panicking as if we're about to lose Ryan Suter like Nashville did last summer.


Last edited by allan5oh: 04-03-2013 at 12:12 AM.
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04-03-2013, 01:56 AM
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Its going to take longer than 5 years. Clearly the cupboards are bare and will need another year or 3.

Everyone knows we need someone to play with Kane. Not sure who that is or how we get a person or 2 but it should be priority. Its clear the plan is to have Mark playing with Kane since they stated several times they are looking for a RW and not a C.

I predict by the time (hopefully) Hellebuyck is ready, we will be competitive.

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04-03-2013, 02:03 AM
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Also I don't think Noel is here from this 5 year plan. A new coach would do a world of good.

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04-03-2013, 07:13 AM
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Originally Posted by fatschoonerrat View Post
I've already been through two five-year plans with this franchise. Not sure I have enough valium for another.
Lucky for Chevy you are not the market he has to worry about. 99.9 % of Jet ticket and merch buyers didn't give a rat's *** about the team before they moved to Winnipeg. Consequently for the majority this is year 2 and most people are still enjoying the honeymoon.

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04-03-2013, 08:31 AM
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Essentially, the on ice product as a whole has been stagnant since the start of the 10-11 season.

That's because ASG iced an AHL team with a couple of decent veterans and a couple of good prospects. Their 5 year plan succeeded brilliantly.

For those of us who have followed this team since it's inception what we are seeing now is nothing new. It's known as the 2nd half swoon. Last season being the inception, we have seen the guys play well on the road then act like they never saw each other before at home. Important games are met with apathy and the season closes with them just out of reach of that sweet 8 spot.

You folks are savvy enough to know where the problems are so I don't have to rehash them. Nobody wants to see this team succeed more than I do but until you get more than a couple of good defensemen and consistent goaltending from your #1, the Jets won't be any better than the Thrashers.

If TN is sincere about building a winner and I believe they are, things should start happening soon. Good luck the rest of the way.

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04-03-2013, 08:38 AM
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That's because ASG iced an AHL team with a couple of decent veterans and a couple of good prospects. Their 5 year plan succeeded brilliantly.

For those of us who have followed this team since it's inception what we are seeing now is nothing new. It's known as the 2nd half swoon. Last season being the inception, we have seen the guys play well on the road then act like they never saw each other before at home. Important games are met with apathy and the season closes with them just out of reach of that sweet 8 spot.

You folks are savvy enough to know where the problems are so I don't have to rehash them. Nobody wants to see this team succeed more than I do but until you get more than a couple of good defensemen and consistent goaltending from your #1, the Jets won't be any better than the Thrashers.

If TN is sincere about building a winner and I believe they are, things should start happening soon. Good luck the rest of the way.
Exactly right, in my opinion.

This team is what it is, and mostly everyone can see that. Can they be better than they are right now as a whole? nope, not in my opinion. There will be good stretches and bad stretches and until important roster positions are filled, we will see the same team display the same efforts (good and bad).

In my opinion, we need a #2 center, a top 6 RW, and a 3rd line with character that can provide consistent production for the top 6. Get those things, fill those holes, and I think we can then begin to form an identity. Right now, we're just a mixed bag lacking very important components to the roster.

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04-03-2013, 08:44 AM
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If the plan works I think in year 5 we will be a steady playoff team (5th or 6th in the conference) I don't think we will be a serious cup contender in 3 years.

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04-03-2013, 09:39 AM
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Is anyone else tired of all the whining and sarcastic comments about waiver wire pickups?

The Jets have been near the bottom of the standings for the past 2 years, and thus they've been near the top of the waiver list. That's why the waiver exists, and the Jets are not the only team to add players this way. When the team is at the top of the standings then they won't be making any waiver additions, because they'll be way down in the order and will have better players than what is available.

Good grief, I have no idea why some of you have attached some sort of stigma to trying to improve the bottom half of the roster and depth. Especially when they've actually had some success with it.

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04-03-2013, 12:50 PM
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You have to think about this logically. Start from the beginning, which is actually when the Jets left in 1996. Mark Chipman started studying the NHL extrensively at that point. Every move he made at that point was to get a winning NHL club. The Moose were an extension of that, and they were a winning club as well. How do you think he got David Thompson to buy in? Thompson isn't a chump. Chipman is the reason he bought in, he's not some uneducated owner. If it was anyone else on the planet asking him to buy in for an NHL club in Winnipeg, Thompson would probably laugh.

He brought in Chevy because Chevy is a winner. Look at his record. Claude Noel is also a winner, look at his record. He even had a winning record as interim coach with the Bluejackets after Hitch left. Hitchcock had his only ever losing record with the Bluejackets. Look it up.

Look at what Chevy has had to deal with, and the state of the franchise when he was hired. The Thrashers have drafted 5 NHLers since 2004 inclusive(Little, Bogosian, Kane, Burmistrov in order), and 4 of those were in the 3-12 overall range. Pavelec is the lone exception, he was drafted in the 2nd. Not a winning formula. Getting two NHLers in a draft is considered a home run, and there are teams that get 4.

The prospect pool before the 2011 draft was extremely thin. Postma, Kulda, Redmond, Klingberg, Telegin(remember 2011-2012 was his breakout year in the OHL), Machacek, Pasquale, are the best it had to offer. It was easily the worst prospect pool in the league.

Atlanta also had no development plan. They used the Chicago Wolves as their AHL affiliate, but apparently had little control over their prospects. They also did not own their AHL affiliate, unlike TNSE who do. This is very important.

Years of bad drafting, pulling in the high end prospects too early (especially Burmistrov) had taken its toll on this franchise. Luckily Dudley was able to pull some very shrewd moves and snagged Byfuglien, Ladd, Wheeler, and Stuart. Look at our current lineup, our entire core is made up of those above draft picks and the Dudley trades. Essentially because this team drafted high because they played bad for years, and taking advantage of Chicago stripping them of RFAs for cheap. In other words, the Chicago situation will probably never happen again. We got lucky. Champions don't rely on luck.

Who is the biggest UFA to sign with this franchise? Antropov, Jokinen? Whoopdeedoo. Nobody wants to come to a franchise that cannot draft and develop. Nobody wants to come to a franchise without a long term plan.

Now look at the current situation compared to the past. We have stanley cup winners in Chevy, Ladd, Byfuglien and even Meech. Noel has a great record, he's won the Calder cup and has a winning record wherever he goes. We have stable and very rich ownership. Everyone from the coach to the owner is committed to a long term plan of slow building. Look at teams that are pushed by their owner to win now. Islanders in getting Yashin, Philly last year and right now, it goes on and on. TNSE owns the building, owns the AHL affiliate, and has put in a proper development scheme. Coupled that with a better CBA, and good profits, and you have a long term recipe for success. Unfortunately there's going to be some short term pain. Remember this team moved here a year and a half ago. Management has to sort things out, and fill up our prospect pool.

There's no quick fix schemes because we have very little to offer. You want Pominville? Good luck without moving one of Scheifele or Trouba. The prices have been high since Chevy has been on the scene.

Do you think Kulda, Postma, and Redmond would be NHL ready under the old system? Postma and Redmond have said the help they got from Mccambridge directly lead to their ease of transition at the big club. Going by the Thrashers past history, it's been 12 years since a forward had any sort of impact that was drafted out of the 1st round. There's been a few 1st round busts as well. Going by past history, it's very hard for a non-elite player to make it to the big club, TNSE is trying to change that. But it takes patience.

Jokinen stated when he first came here, the support from TNSE was amazing. He was given a huge book of everything to do around town, and anything he needed was a phone call away. He stated he's never been treated so well by any organization. This is what needs to happen in order to attract UFAs. Our reputation as a bit of a fish bowl and our cold climate means we have to do all those small little steps that no other teams will do. Apparently we also have a team chef, and have three team meals a day at home. Who else does this? All good high quality food:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/spo...200381391.html

Take a look at our current UFA situation. It would be such a shame to lose Hainsey and Antropov for nothing because it would be hard to replace them. We have little depth, and need to get something in return. High end teams don't have this problem. Antropov would be simply told to walk. Hainsey would be kept, but that's because he would want to stay. Does he want to stay with us now? Remember we're talking about a #4 d-man and a #3C! People around here are panicking as if we're about to lose Ryan Suter like Nashville did last summer.
lol!
Chevy's a winner! Noel is a winner! Everyone's a winner! Our team is full of winners! The Stanley cup is right around the corner! Can you feel it? Except, we suck - we're a .500 hockey team (consistently; over 5 years).

Love the link on the food! I know that's what would make me move back to Winnipeg. Just give me one of those books they gave Jokinen! You're hilarious man!!!

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04-03-2013, 12:57 PM
  #22
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lol!
Chevy's a winner! Noel is a winner! Everyone's a winner! Our team is full of winners! The Stanley cup is right around the corner! Can you feel it? Except, we suck - we're a .500 hockey team (consistently; over 5 years).

Love the link on the food! I know that's what would make me move back to Winnipeg. Just give me one of those books they gave Jokinen! You're hilarious man!!!
Did anything I say twist the truth? We are a .500 team because it's hard to do anything without giving up assets, and we don't want to give up long term assets for short term gain. Not everything happens in a vacuum.

The food and book is just an example of all the little things TNSE is willing to do to attract UFAs. This is extremely important. Since the beginning of the Atlanta franchise, how many UFAs have they attracted, or how many UFAs to be have waived NTCs to come to Altanta/Winnipeg? Antropov and Jokinen. That's all I can think of. The rest are scrubs.

Under the current CBA, you have to think of all the small things you can do in order to maximise salary value. If you constantly pay market prices or above market prices you will handcuff yourself at the top of the cap and have a losing team.

Draft picks, prospects, salary cap space are all assets that need to be used wisely. Are we sitting better than we were 2 years ago when the Thrashers moved here? Yes we are.

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04-03-2013, 12:58 PM
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Last year, we held the division lead only to choke it away. We did nothing at the deadline other than trade away Oduya (who was a first round bust). It looks like the pattern continues.

A year over year .500 record for a sports franchise is awful. But hey ... who cares right? The Jets are back and people still pay to go to the arena and buy TSN Jets. TNSE doesn't care, they're making money.

Are we better than two years ago? No. The record is still the same. Talk about draft picks, etc. but the record has not changed. Next year, a much tougher division and conference.

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04-03-2013, 01:01 PM
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Last year, we held the division lead only to choke it away. We did nothing at the deadline other than trade away Oduya (who was a first round bust). It looks like the pattern continues.
Who was a first round bust?

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04-03-2013, 01:04 PM
  #25
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#Dive4Five #31Buyout
 
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Posts: 6,409
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by pcanuck View Post
A year over year .500 record for a sports franchise is awful.
So what would you have done to fix it? Please be specific. I'm all ears.

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