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ATD 2013 - Draft Thread V

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Old
03-06-2013, 08:13 PM
  #726
BenchBrawl
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Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
^Brind'Amour is not a better player than Sedin.
Disagree.Big Time.

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03-06-2013, 08:18 PM
  #727
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I'm with you, MB. I think that in our little ATD bubble, Brind'amour is more valuable than Sedin, since it's the difference between a very good 3rd liner and a bargain-basement 2nd liner. But in the real world, I'd rather start a team around Sedin.

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03-06-2013, 08:27 PM
  #728
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I'm with you, MB. I think that in our little ATD bubble, Brind'amour is more valuable than Sedin, since it's the difference between a very good 3rd liner and a bargain-basement 2nd liner. But in the real world, I'd rather start a team around Sedin.
I can agree with this.

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03-06-2013, 09:17 PM
  #729
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How much to value regular season style of play over the Stanley Cup playoffs?

As a GM of a real-life NHL team, I'd rather have Brindy on a playoff-bound team than Henrik (his three-game explosion notwithstanding). He brings so much more to the table.



(Of course, an NHL expansion squad or rebuilding team that lacks a first line center would select Sedin.)

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Old
03-06-2013, 09:36 PM
  #730
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At least my good pick with Brind'amour keeps coming up as much as Corbeau

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Old
03-06-2013, 09:48 PM
  #731
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
***

If you spent some much time on this project, why don't you list the players who finished ahead of them? It's quite obvious there will be several who we would all know are less value.
Have at 'er

Gretzky 158.1
Lemieux 127.2
Esposito 126.8
Mikita 103
Dionne 98.3
Beliveau 97.8
Yzerman 97.8
Sakic 97.1
Morenz 93.7
Messier 91.7

Oates 90.8
Thornton 90.5
Hawerchuk 89.7
Stastny 89.2
Trottier 88.6
Cowley 88.4
Francis 88.2
Ratelle 88.2
Stewart 87.9
Boucher 87.4

Ullman 86.9
Savard 86.8
Forsberg 86.6
Clarke 85.7
Apps 85.6
Gilmour 84.1
Turgeon 84
Nicholls 83.1
Bentley 82.9
Barry 82.8

Sundin 82.6
Delvecchio 81.6
Perreault 81.4
Lindros 81.3
Turgeon 81.3
Fedorov 81.2
Schmidt 80.7
Roenick 80.6
Lach 80.6
Sittler 80.3

Lafontaine 79
Richard 78.7
Federko 77.6
Weight 76.3
B.Richards 75.2
Lemaire 74.2
Sedin 73.9
Lecavalier 73.4
Datsyuk 73
H.Smith 72.7

Keon 72.4
Brind'Amour 72.2
Kennedy 71.6
Weiland 71.6
Watson 71.3
B.Smith 70.9
Nieuwendyk 70.4
Mahovlich 70.2
Goyette 69.5
(undrafted) 69.1

MacLeish 66.2
McKenney 65.9
Muller 65.3
Crosby 65
Malkin 58.7

Like I said, the easiest targets ahead of him are Richards, Weight, Nicholls and Lemaire. The rest shouldn't really be debatable. I included the other 6 comparables that I mentioned earlier, plus Crosby and Malkin.

I do give him credit for being as close to a couple of sacred cows as he is (Sittler, Federko), or, rather, this underscores how unimpressive their offensive records actually are. (or, maybe the percentage system - even the way I do it - is just too hard on the 1975-1990 period)

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Old
03-06-2013, 09:56 PM
  #732
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Kenora has been notified that they're free to pick.

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Old
03-06-2013, 10:25 PM
  #733
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Luckily I'm heading out on vacation for the next 6 days so we can resume this when I return. After a quick skim of your list I think its pretty clear he's in the 40-50th range, which to me is more then ample for the way he is used on my team. I'm not trying to sell him as a top tier 2nd line center but there is no debating he shouldnt be a top 60 center and could be used in a top 6.

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Old
03-06-2013, 10:38 PM
  #734
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
*
But weren’t Cleghorn, Johnson, Boucher, Gerard, Cameron, Patrick, Patrick, Gardiner, Ross, Griffis, Hall, Simpson, Dutton, Marshall, Cook, and Duncan all stars and some of hockey’s best defensemen during his career as well?
*
We all get that he was good, but someone had to be the worst player out of that bunch. I think we have enough evidence in favour of all these other guys to place them ahead of him.
*
He’s not really picked significantly out of place for his era from what I can gather (correct me if I’m wrong) but overall I still see him going higher than he belongs.
*
I fully agree that he should go behind the players you listed based on the evidence, but I think the lack of information on Corbeau is frustrating as there's some really intriguing bits of information on him, yet his playing style and abilities remain more mysterious than his contemporaries you mentioned.

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03-06-2013, 10:59 PM
  #735
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Kenora picks coach Viktor Tikhonov

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Old
03-06-2013, 11:06 PM
  #736
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
*

Good value there. He and Vinny were the only two remotely in Turgeonís territory back when he was picked.
What do you think of Hlinka compared to his group?

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Old
03-06-2013, 11:17 PM
  #737
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Luckily I'm heading out on vacation for the next 6 days so we can resume this when I return. After a quick skim of your list I think its pretty clear he's in the 40-50th range,
OK, then I must be blind, because for him to even be 50th, not only would that mean he's better than every single one of those comparables (Lecavalier, Weiland, Watson, Nieuwendyk, Goyette and McKenney, McGee , Dunderdale, Walsh, Adams, Stuart, Shadrin, Novy, Hlinka) but also 16 more out of the 66 I had ahead of him (the 46 above him on the list, plus Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, Brind'Amour, Hooley, Keon, Kennedy, and the 13 early and european players - Taylor, Lalonde, Nighbor, Malone, MacKay, Foyston, Fredrickson, Keats, Bowie, Larionov, Petrov, Starshinov). We can't possibly be that far apart, can we? And to think, you are entertaining the possibility that he's 40th - better than 26 of those 66 players!

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Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
What do you think of Hlinka compared to his group?
I am not that educated on him. All I can say is I'm pretty sure of his approximate range. I need to be better sold on him, but at the same time I think I give him an appropriate benefit of the doubt thanks to what he did in the NHL at 32-33. My statement about Weight was more in regards to NHL players as they're pretty easy to compare.

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Old
03-06-2013, 11:36 PM
  #738
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
OK, then I must be blind, because for him to even be 50th, not only would that mean he's better than every single one of those comparables (Lecavalier, Weiland, Watson, Nieuwendyk, Goyette and McKenney, McGee , Dunderdale, Walsh, Adams, Stuart, Shadrin, Novy, Hlinka) but also 16 more out of the 66 I had ahead of him (the 46 above him on the list, plus Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, Brind'Amour, Hooley, Keon, Kennedy, and the 13 early and european players - Taylor, Lalonde, Nighbor, Malone, MacKay, Foyston, Fredrickson, Keats, Bowie, Larionov, Petrov, Starshinov). We can't possibly be that far apart, can we? And to think, you are entertaining the possibility that he's 40th - better than 26 of those 66 players!
The difference between Sedin and McKenney is about the same as Trottier and Roenick or Morenz and Clarke. Are they really comparable?

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Old
03-06-2013, 11:50 PM
  #739
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Have at 'er

Gretzky 158.1
Lemieux 127.2
Esposito 126.8
Mikita 103
Dionne 98.3
Beliveau 97.8
Yzerman 97.8
Sakic 97.1
Morenz 93.7
Messier 91.7

Oates 90.8
Thornton 90.5
Hawerchuk 89.7
Stastny 89.2
Trottier 88.6
Cowley 88.4
Francis 88.2
Ratelle 88.2
Could it be? Joe Thornton the 12th-16th most prolific offensive center in the regular season of all time? And he was the 44th center picked? And Ratelle, 18th-22nd most prolific center of all time, selected 47th among centers? (I'm including 4 of the multi-league early era guys as better offensively which is being more than fair). And neither is devoid of intangibles either.

In before someone craps on their overblown playoff issues.

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Old
03-06-2013, 11:55 PM
  #740
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Larionov is a guy that goes way too high.

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Old
03-06-2013, 11:58 PM
  #741
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Could it be? Joe Thornton the 12th-16th most prolific offensive center in the regular season of all time? And he was the 44th center picked? And Ratelle, 18th-22nd most prolific center of all time, selected 47th among centers? (I'm including 4 of the multi-league early era guys as better offensively which is being more than fair). And neither is devoid of intangibles either.

In before someone craps on their overblown playoff issues.
By a metric that has Phil Esposito as effectively Mario Lemieux's equal!

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Larionov is a guy that goes way too high.
Probably. People love reuniting him with Makarov though.

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Old
03-07-2013, 12:09 AM
  #742
seventieslord
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I fully agree that he should go behind the players you listed based on the evidence, but I think the lack of information on Corbeau is frustrating as there's some really intriguing bits of information on him, yet his playing style and abilities remain more mysterious than his contemporaries you mentioned.
That's all true.

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Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
The difference between Sedin and McKenney is about the same as Trottier and Roenick or Morenz and Clarke. Are they really comparable?
There's at least an argument. McKenney was good defensively, and compiling a load of higher percentage scores was tougher back then (a quick look at the list will tell you that)

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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Could it be? Joe Thornton the 12th-16th most prolific offensive center in the regular season of all time? And he was the 44th center picked? And Ratelle, 18th-22nd most prolific center of all time, selected 47th among centers? (I'm including 4 of the multi-league early era guys as better offensively which is being more than fair). And neither is devoid of intangibles either.

In before someone craps on their overblown playoff issues.
They're both pretty assist heavy, but as far as sustained peak of point accumulation goes, yeah, that's about fair.

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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
By a metric that has Phil Esposito as effectively Mario Lemieux's equal!
Yeah, I didn't make any attempts to adjust players based on who they benefitted from... and of course missed games hurt Mario a lot here. (and lack of them really help Henrik)

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Old
03-07-2013, 12:12 AM
  #743
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Honestly, that list you posted is basically all the proof you need that the percentage method really hurts pre-expansion players. 2 Original 6 centers in the top 20?

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Old
03-07-2013, 12:15 AM
  #744
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Have at 'er

Gretzky 158.1
Lemieux 127.2
Esposito 126.8
Mikita 103
Dionne 98.3
Beliveau 97.8
Yzerman 97.8
Sakic 97.1
Morenz 93.7
Messier 91.7

Oates 90.8
Thornton 90.5
Hawerchuk 89.7
Stastny 89.2
Trottier 88.6
Cowley 88.4
Francis 88.2
Ratelle 88.2
Stewart 87.9
Boucher 87.4

Ullman 86.9
Savard 86.8
Forsberg 86.6
Clarke 85.7
Apps 85.6
Gilmour 84.1
Turgeon 84
Nicholls 83.1
Bentley 82.9
Barry 82.8

Sundin 82.6
Delvecchio 81.6
Perreault 81.4
Lindros 81.3
Turgeon 81.3
Fedorov 81.2
Schmidt 80.7
Roenick 80.6
Lach 80.6
Sittler 80.3

Lafontaine 79
Richard 78.7
Federko 77.6
Weight 76.3
B.Richards 75.2
Lemaire 74.2
Sedin 73.9
Lecavalier 73.4
Datsyuk 73
H.Smith 72.7

Keon 72.4
Brind'Amour 72.2
Kennedy 71.6
Weiland 71.6
Watson 71.3
B.Smith 70.9
Nieuwendyk 70.4
Mahovlich 70.2
Goyette 69.5
(undrafted) 69.1

MacLeish 66.2
McKenney 65.9
Muller 65.3
Crosby 65
Malkin 58.7

Like I said, the easiest targets ahead of him are Richards, Weight, Nicholls and Lemaire. The rest shouldn't really be debatable. I included the other 6 comparables that I mentioned earlier, plus Crosby and Malkin.

I do give him credit for being as close to a couple of sacred cows as he is (Sittler, Federko), or, rather, this underscores how unimpressive their offensive records actually are. (or, maybe the percentage system - even the way I do it - is just too hard on the 1975-1990 period)
Your man love for Pierre Turgeon is a powerful thing.

I think you need to give your system a hard look if it's got Bernie Nicholls that high. I mean...Nicholls is an underrated offensive player around these parts, but he's not that good. Bottom line is that I think you are overrating 80's players here. You remove so many outliers from the era that the guys who are left over end up being overrated, which is predictable. Your system has nine of the top fifteen offensive centers of all-time coming from the 1980's: Gretzky, Lemieux, Dionne, Yzerman, Messier, Oates, Hawerchuk, Stastny, Trottier. This is kind of a facepalm.

My system is, I think, much more even-handed when dealing with the era. Here is Nicholls vs. a later player who is a fairly close comparable:

Henrik Sedin VsX:
103, 95, 84, 75, 72, 71, 71
Hart: 1, 9, 10

Bernie Nicholls VsX:
108, 87, 75, 75, 74, 69, 63, 60, 50

---------------------------------------------------

Now, the above shows that Nicholls was actually pretty close to Sedin as a peak offensive player, but the Swede has definitely been better, and has been much more important to his respective teams. I think my result is maybe surprising to some (who underrate Nicholls), but still passes the smell test, and I'm not sure if yours does. I don't yet have comprehensive VsX numbers for every scoring center in history. I'll have to do the work, and then we can have a battle in the ring of fire.

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03-07-2013, 12:48 AM
  #745
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HC Donbass completes its coaching staff with Larry Robinson, assistant coach

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Old
03-07-2013, 12:54 AM
  #746
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I'm with you, MB. I think that in our little ATD bubble, Brind'amour is more valuable than Sedin, since it's the difference between a very good 3rd liner and a bargain-basement 2nd liner. But in the real world, I'd rather start a team around Sedin.
I don't know if "bargain basement" is a fair way to describe Henrik Sedin. Guys like Rick MacLeish are bargain basement second line centers. Henrik is certainly low on the list of 2nd line centers in the league, but he's not out of place in either his line or draft position.


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03-07-2013, 12:58 AM
  #747
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I've got Reen's list. He selects right wing Mario Tremblay.

I have PMed Hobnobs.

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Old
03-07-2013, 01:07 AM
  #748
ck26
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HC Donbass completes its coaching staff with Larry Robinson, assistant coach
He's going to be busy skating 26 minutes a night in Dallas, but if Donbass sends a Russian translator ...

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Old
03-07-2013, 01:09 AM
  #749
seventieslord
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Honestly, that list you posted is basically all the proof you need that the percentage method really hurts pre-expansion players. 2 Original 6 centers in the top 20?
Top be honest, I still like a flat, across the board boost for pure expansion players, even of this caliber.

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Your man love for Pierre Turgeon is a powerful thing.

I think you need to give your system a hard look if it's got Bernie Nicholls that high. I mean...Nicholls is an underrated offensive player around these parts, but he's not that good. Bottom line is that I think you are overrating 80's players here. You remove so many outliers from the era that the guys who are left over end up being overrated, which is predictable. Your system has nine of the top fifteen offensive centers of all-time coming from the 1980's: Gretzky, Lemieux, Dionne, Yzerman, Messier, Oates, Hawerchuk, Stastny, Trottier. This is kind of a facepalm.

My system is, I think, much more even-handed when dealing with the era. Here is Nicholls vs. a later player who is a fairly close comparable:

Henrik Sedin VsX:
103, 95, 84, 75, 72, 71, 71
Hart: 1, 9, 10

Bernie Nicholls VsX:
108, 87, 75, 75, 74, 69, 63, 60, 50

---------------------------------------------------

Now, the above shows that Nicholls was actually pretty close to Sedin as a peak offensive player, but the Swede has definitely been better, and has been much more important to his respective teams. I think my result is maybe surprising to some (who underrate Nicholls), but still passes the smell test, and I'm not sure if yours does. I don't yet have comprehensive VsX numbers for every scoring center in history. I'll have to do the work, and then we can have a battle in the ring of fire.
LOL, ok, I deserve that one. I can tell you for sure the 84 is the real turgeon; I recall being quite interested in his placement relative to Gilmour. Can you see a name that is missing? If so, that's who the other turgeon is supposed to be. You want a prize, don't you? Figure it out, someone.

As for Nicholls, he's that high because his #1 season is weighted the highest, and is an obscenely high and somewhat undeserved score. If you give him a 90 for 1989, his overall score ends up less than one full point above Sedin, well within the range of plausibility, given the longevity advantage he currently holds. (Actually, if I took your scores and weighted them by my system, it would be about the same, wouldn't it?) I should have mentioned, the system obviously doesn't work too nicely for the players who I remove due to a gretzky or lemieux influence, as they score over 100 those seasons.

I don't think I that necessarily proves I am overrating 80s players. At least I hope I am not. Many people will tell you I've frustrated them to no end with my supposed downplaying of the era (some would say I'm a 90s lover)... I hope we get to see those year by year breakdowns for your system soon. Remember said I can help. I think you'll be surprised, though, at how similar our lists would end up, if you did one just like this.

Although sedin has the unquestionably better Hart record, it seems the entire world agrees by now that he was actually 3rd at best that season, and we should be really careful not to stake too much of a case on the opinions of a fringe minority of journalists (the nearly meaningless 9th and 10th)

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03-07-2013, 01:14 AM
  #750
Rob Scuderi
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Tell me how you weighted those figures and I can post the vsX versions to see what the differences are. I think you said it was top 10 seasons or am I making that up?

Also, I have a spreadsheet with vsX scores for everyone in 1927-2012. It took little time to throw together copying your (70s) sheet and then adding a simple column with the VsX score.

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