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ATD 2013 - Draft Thread V

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Old
03-07-2013, 05:25 AM
  #776
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hobnobs View Post
Yea, for some reason people dont like a guy who were one of NHLs best defensive player for 10 years mainly because he had no offense and didnt get that much selke recognition.
His Selke recognition was actually quite strong considering how many games he missed. Jan was a relentless checker in New York, and I like him as a 4th line LW on a pure checking unit, which is what yours looks like with Erixon - Sanderson as the base. Erixon will get banged up during the ATD season (and Sanderson didn't have the longest career, himself), but these guys are 4th liners, and can be replaced temporarily when they are hurt without it having a serious negative impact on the team.

I really didn't understand the ****storm about Erixon last year. I think it had more to do with seventies and a past MLD than with the player, himself, and his role on gmm's team. C'est la vie.

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03-07-2013, 05:28 AM
  #777
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
His Selke recognition was actually quite strong considering how many games he missed. Jan was a relentless checker in New York, and I like him as a 4th line LW on a pure checking unit, which is what yours looks like with Erixon - Sanderson as the base. Erixon will get banged up during the ATD season (and Sanderson didn't have the longest career, himself), but these guys are 4th liners, and can be replaced temporarily when they are hurt without it having a serious negative impact on the team.

I really didn't understand the ****storm about Erixon last year. I think it had more to do with seventies and a past MLD than with the player, himself, and his role on gmm's team. C'est la vie.
Yea and the fact that a guy like Esposito (who wasnt known for liking euros) introduced an award in honor of Erixons hard work is pretty telling.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Erixon
– Det var Phil Esposito som ville göra något för mig då han tyckte att jag gjorde så bra ifrån mig, och gjorde mycket skitjobb utan att få uppmärksamhet för det. Därför införde han Steven McDonald Extra Effort Award som skulle gå till ”den polis som blivit skjuten i tjänsten”. Jag fick det priset första året, och jag fick en stor pokal och en bil så det var läckert.
– Två säsonger efteråt fick jag priset igen, och då var det fansen som röstade fram vem som skulle vinna, och det var självklart en ära.
Translation

Quote:
- It was Phil Esposito who wanted to do something for me when he thought I did so well myself, and did much crap job without getting attention for it. Therefore he introduced the Steven McDonald Extra Effort Award which would go to "the police officer who had been shot in the service." I got the price of the first year, and I got a big trophy and a car so it was cool.
*** - Two seasons later, I got the price again, and then it was the fans who voted for who would win, and it was obviously an honor.

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03-07-2013, 07:13 AM
  #778
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Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
Have them all now, it seems to really have a good handle on the pre-expansion stars.

Starting with only the 1926-27 season affects Morenz in another way too. I'd like to see this list with a shorter set of years to get a more prime on prime comparison, which would favor the earliest NHLers and Crosby and Malkin.

With it being less a point, a shorter comparison would definitely push Forsberg ahead as he should be. 10 years is really going to be flattering to Francis
Thank you for doing the work here, BBS. When you get the time, I would love to see a revised list which compares only the top-7 seasons using seventies' weighting system. The results are already quite rational using top-10, about as good as I could have hoped they'd be, and I think top-7 just might iron out most of the remaining strangeness. It feels like we're getting close to a solid, comprehensive system for comparing 1st unit scoring across eras.

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03-07-2013, 07:52 AM
  #779
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Hmmm...I like the early results of my system. It seems to handle pre-expansion guys like Boucher, Stewart and Ullman in a way that more closely conforms to the established consensus on these players, while pushing 80's stars Stastny, Hawerchuk and Savard out of the top-20, which I think is also appropriate. I also like that it has Beliveau ahead of Dionne, and with a little gap, and that it has Gretzky relatively further ahead than that "other" system.

Nice work, BBS. Keep it up.

edit: cutting the analysis down to top-7 seasons would probably remedy the strangeness of seeing Joe Sakic's name ahead of Howie Morenz, which is about the only clunker I can see with the results so far, so long as one slaps a fat war years asterisk on Bill Cowley. Like I said, top-10 seasons is biased in favor of modern players with great scoring longevity, of whom Joe Sakic is pretty much the poster child. Cutting the analysis down to top-7 seasons would also pull up the numbers of guys like Max Bentley and Marty Barry, who both looked suspiciously low on seventies' list (not sure yet where they fall in my rating, but unless they show up very soon, they are too low, IMO). It's just not realistic to expect pre-expansion (and especially pre-war) guys to have had legitimate ten season peaks.

edit to the edit: ah...I see your updated list now. I dunno. Every GM will have to judge for himself, but I am already very happy with those results, and that is before we cut it down to seven seasons (ten seasons brutalizes not only pre-expansion guys, but also Crosby and Malkin...lol). Thanks for putting in the work here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I think seeing Ron Francis' name over Peter Forsberg's is another clunker, and another one that will likely be remedied by limiting it to best 7 seasons. And as fun as it is to see Esposito over Lemieux, I imagine a best 7 will put Mario back on top.

This way does seem to handle pre-expansion players better than the numbers seventieslord posted though.
So now people should try and draft the best 7 year players? Lafleur is going to look great!

Longevity, durability and consistency are all great attributes to have as a player.

I get why some people prefer peak to longevity but why shouldn't Sakic get credit for producing at a high level for 20 years instead of 6 or 7 like some high peak flameouts?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
Have them all now, it seems to really have a good handle on the pre-expansion stars.

Starting with only the 1926-27 season affects Morenz in another way too. I'd like to see this list with a shorter set of years to get a more prime on prime comparison, which would favor the earliest NHLers and Crosby and Malkin.


With it being less a point, a shorter comparison would definitely push Forsberg ahead as he should be. 10 years is really going to be flattering to Francis
Yeah, cause staying healthy and productive was just not fair!

(and yes I get that Forsberg had a higher peak in most people's opinion, but what happened to career value?)

Quote:
Originally Posted by gmm View Post
Good luck. I took him 100 picks lower last year to fill out my checking line and the way the board reacted was just plain ugly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hobnobs View Post
Yea, for some reason people dont like a guy who were one of NHLs best defensive player for 10 years mainly because he had no offense and didnt get that much selke recognition (I know he was a finalist once).
The thing with Erixon is that he was by all accounts a good defensive player but that people tried to upsell his offensive ability on a per game basis.

That doesn't fly so well with a player who was made of glass. imo in this setting he is a black hole offensively. His career high is 8 goals.

As Sturminator said I don't see any problem with him on the 4th line where he can be replaced fairly easily when his inevitable injuries happen, but if your idea is that he is going to shadow Gordie Howe or something integral to your game plan.. it doesn't work because he is going to miss games.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Thank you for doing the work here, BBS. When you get the time, I would love to see a revised list which compares only the top-7 seasons using seventies' weighting system. The results are already quite rational using top-10, about as good as I could have hoped they'd be, and I think top-7 just might iron out most of the remaining strangeness. It feels like we're getting close to a solid, comprehensive system for comparing 1st unit scoring across eras.
Or a system for evaluating the top 7 seasons only of a player's career across eras.

I thought the ATD was a career thing?

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Old
03-07-2013, 07:57 AM
  #780
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator
The results are already quite rational using top-10, about as good as I could have hoped they'd be, and I think top-7 just might iron out most of the remaining strangeness. It feels like we're getting close to a solid, comprehensive system for comparing 1st unit scoring across eras.
There is no one formula. (Though it's a statistician's dream.)

There are multiple considerations, of which regular season scoring numbers is just a part, especially in terms of relative ranking of individuals, the splitting of hairs, as you will. Such stats however could show some clear examples of marginal versus non-marginal members of various scoring prowess levels.

Of course, nothing stops anyone from using whatever one means they want to compare every single player across every era; but hopefully consensus doesn't result, robbing the process of it's discussion-based reasoned reflections.

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03-07-2013, 08:09 AM
  #781
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Or a system for evaluating the top 7 seasons only of a player's career across eras.

I thought the ATD was a career thing?
I think top-7 is a reasonable standard for what could be considered a normal peak across eras. Introducing a larger number of seasons runs into rationality problems because some players with normal length peaks in their eras will have values approaching zero for seasons 8+, which torpedoes the universality of the system.

If you think Ron Francis was a better offensive player than Peter Forsberg, then by all means, use another system. I think the point here is to get as close as possible to a universal standard for evaluating the respective "peak production" of scoring forwards across eras. In order to get there, we need a common denominator of peak length over which to make our evaluations, and it needs to be fair to all involved. Ten seasons is clearly too long.

Sure, longevity is valuable, but this is not a Hall of Fame meter. I personally don't think that Ron Francis was a better offensive player than Peter Forsberg, even taking longevity into account, and Forsberg is already punished for the time he missed in this system because it is based on per season rather than per game scoring, and so takes missed games during peak seasons into account. At any rate, the inputs and methodology of the system are transparent, and each GM can decide for himself what the results mean, or if they are meaningful, at all.

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03-07-2013, 08:18 AM
  #782
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Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
There is no one formula. (Though it's a statistician's dream.)

There are multiple considerations, of which regular season scoring numbers is just a part, especially in terms of relative ranking of individuals, the splitting of hairs, as you will. Such stats however could show some clear examples of marginal versus non-marginal members of various scoring prowess levels.

Of course, nothing stops anyone from using whatever one means they want to compare every single player across every era; but hopefully consensus doesn't result, robbing the process of it's discussion-based reasoned reflections.
Of course. There are many caveats and asterisks which must be handed out even in a good percentage based system. I'm still not happy with how this system handles the 1940's (where I think it is overgenerous), for example, and the war years will always carry a red flag. There is no one way of looking at a blackbird, this is true, but regular season scoring is the single greatest measure we have of the performance of scoringline forwards. Being 50th on some VsX list doesn't make one the 50th best player, but I think a normalized structure for comparing scoring performances across eras does have a good deal of utility, so long as we are clear about the constraints of the system.

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03-07-2013, 08:19 AM
  #783
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I think top-7 is a reasonable standard for what could be considered a normal peak across eras.
I think that top 7 seasons is reasonable for peak, yes.

Quote:
Introducing a larger number of seasons runs into rationality problems because some players with normal length peaks in their eras will have values approaching zero for seasons 8+, which torpedoes the universality of the system.
I get that in some eras careers were shorter. The early years & even the Trottier Clarke era of stars are another example of offensive player peaks ending prematurely for some reason.

But limiting to 7 seasons also cuts the other way against players who actually did produce for a long time. Like your Sakics, Howes, Francis type players.

This isn't the peak draft - although player peaks are certainly important. I thought we were evaluating players on career value?

Maybe this type of analysis needs a modifier for "average career length" to make it fair both ways.

Quote:
If you think Ron Francis was a better offensive player than Peter Forsberg, then by all means, use another system. I think the point here is to get as close as possible to a universal standard for evaluating the respective "peak production" of scoring forwards across eras. In order to get there, we need a common denominator of peak length over which to make our evaluations, and it needs to be fair to all involved. Ten seasons is clearly too long.
I don't happen to think that Ron Francis was a better offensive player than Peter Forsberg at their best.

But if we're going to keep saying that this measures peak production then lets call it that instead of a comprehensive system of 1st liner production or whatever you called it earlier.

Quote:
Sure, longevity is valuable, but this is not a Hall of Fame meter. I personally don't think that Ron Francis was a better offensive player than Peter Forsberg, even taking longevity into account, and Forsberg is already punished for the time he missed in this system because it is based on per season rather than per game scoring, and so takes missed games during peak seasons into account. At any rate, the inputs and methodology of the system are transparent, and each GM can decide for himself what the results mean, or if they are meaningful, at all.
I don't think Ron Francis was a better peak offensive player than Peter Forsberg either.

I do think he had a better career, though.

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Old
03-07-2013, 08:20 AM
  #784
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All right, I'm confused now.....Jafar had until 7:48 am to pick and I don't see a selection. Hobnobs goes at 5:28 am......who's up?

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03-07-2013, 08:25 AM
  #785
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Maybe this type of analysis needs a modifier for "average career length" to make it fair both ways.
A variable, you mean, based on some season-by-season calculation (starting in a player's rookie year, perhaps?) of the average length of all NHL players' peaks? This would probably be an improvement in the system - allowing us to expand the number of seasons evaluated as the average length of peak has increased (and it has...somewhat). How one should calculate such a variable is kind of a mind-bender, though.

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03-07-2013, 08:26 AM
  #786
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Originally Posted by BubbaBoot View Post
All right, I'm confused now.....Jafar had until 7:48 am to pick and I don't see a selection. Hobnobs goes at 5:28 am......who's up?
Both Jafar and Hobnobs have chosen (Jafar sent me a list and I announced his pick for him). Reds4Life is up.

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03-07-2013, 08:30 AM
  #787
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
A variable, you mean, based on some season-by-season calculation (starting in a player's rookie year, perhaps?) of the average length of all NHL players' peaks? This would probably be an improvement in the system - allowing us to expand the number of seasons evaluated as the average length of peak has increased (and it has...somewhat). How one should calculate such a variable is kind of a mind-bender, though.
I agree it would be a pain to average out the number of player peak years by era.

The simple solution is to label the system "peak" instead of comprehensive hahaha

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03-07-2013, 08:31 AM
  #788
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post

I don't think Ron Francis was a better peak offensive player than Peter Forsberg either.

I do think he had a better career, though.
It's another ATD case of perspective.

Francis maintained a very good standard over a long period of time while Forsberg packed in higher standard over a shorter, though not brief, time.

Both won a couple of Cups but Forsberg's international career is stellar where Francis had nearly none by comparison....it's sorta like comparing (off the top of my head and please excuse the baseball analogy), Carl Yastrzemski to Roberto Clemente.

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03-07-2013, 08:32 AM
  #789
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Thanks to Sturm for making the pick for me!



Heres Mario Tremblay ES numbers compared to the Buffalo guys and Risebrough:

Danny Gare ES Points:
62, 60, 60, 58, 53, 48, 48

Craig Ramsay ES Points:
63, 58, 54, 50, 46, 46, 45, 42, 40

Don Luce ES Points:
60, 59, 57, 50, 49, 44, 40, 39

Mario Tremblay ES:
58, 55, 55, 49, 49, 41, 39, 36, 32, 32, 23, 23


Doug Risebrough ES:
53, 53, 48, 40, 41, 39, 36, 30, 25, 25, 18


Troy Murray and Mario Tremblay to start my 4th line will be able to integrate perfectly within Gormans forechecking system that require a lot of energetic skating from the forwards.

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03-07-2013, 08:33 AM
  #790
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Both Jafar and Hobnobs have chosen (Jafar sent me a list and I announced his pick for him). Reds4Life is up.
OK thanks, I didn't see it updated...btw, do you sleep?

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03-07-2013, 08:34 AM
  #791
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It's another ATD case of perspective.

Francis maintained a very good standard over a long period of time while Forsberg packed in higher standard over a shorter, though not brief, time.

Both won a couple of Cups but Forsberg's international career is stellar where Francis had nearly none by comparison....it's sorta like comparing (off the top of my head and please excuse the baseball analogy), Carl Yastrzemski to Roberto Clemente.
Francis was very good for 750 games more than Forsberg's entire career. Which means he was very good for over double Forsberg's whole career.

I'd say that adds up to a lot of career value.

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03-07-2013, 09:06 AM
  #792
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
The thing with Erixon is that he was by all accounts a good defensive player but that people tried to upsell his offensive ability on a per game basis.

That doesn't fly so well with a player who was made of glass. imo in this setting he is a black hole offensively. His career high is 8 goals.

As Sturminator said I don't see any problem with him on the 4th line where he can be replaced fairly easily when his inevitable injuries happen, but if your idea is that he is going to shadow Gordie Howe or something integral to your game plan.. it doesn't work because he is going to miss games.
How do you know he will be injured the game we face Gordie howe?

Funny thing tho, Erixon was never injured come playoff time.

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03-07-2013, 09:12 AM
  #793
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I think Reds4Life may be skipped and MadArcand may be into his clock now, correct me if I'm wrong on this.

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03-07-2013, 09:14 AM
  #794
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OK thanks, I didn't see it updated...btw, do you sleep?
I live in Germany. It's 16:00 here right now. A better question would be: do I work?

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03-07-2013, 09:16 AM
  #795
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I think Reds4Life may be skipped and MadArcand may be into his clock now, correct me if I'm wrong on this.
This is correct

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03-07-2013, 09:26 AM
  #796
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I live in Germany. It's 16:00 here right now. A better question would be: do I work?
Thats pretty close to me, should get a beer and talk hockey history

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03-07-2013, 09:29 AM
  #797
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This is correct
I'll pm MadArcand now in that case.

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03-07-2013, 09:32 AM
  #798
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Francis was very good for 750 games more than Forsberg's entire career. Which means he was very good for over double Forsberg's whole career.

I'd say that adds up to a lot of career value.
Let me put it this way:

- the season-by-season benchmarking I established with the VsX project is the important part of the attempt at some sort of scoring normalization, and I think it looks pretty good at this point. We haven't fully vetted the system yet, but it has passed the early tests, I think.

- what one does with normalized VsX numbers in comparing players on a career level is a different question, and here there is really no accounting for taste. You are correct that a comparison of top-7 seasons is only going to measure a player's peak production, which I fully admit because that's all I'm trying to measure. How we then judge the value contained in relative non-peak performance is completely up for debate. My personal opinion is that in an ATD setting where a one season best-on-best scenario is assumed, regular season peak production is the best baseline for estimating the relative strength of scoringline forwards. But it is certainly not the end-all and be-all of player valuations.

- I am not trying to impose a new tyranny on our judgments of ATD scoringline forwards, but rather to replace an old one (the top-x rankings system) with something better. We will always need some rough shorthand for comparing player scoring across eras. I'm trying to provide a rational system for generating that shorthand that is less rough than the one before it, nothing more.

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03-07-2013, 09:41 AM
  #799
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Thats pretty close to me, should get a beer and talk hockey history
I would like that, though you seem to have a very American idea of what constitutes "close".

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03-07-2013, 09:47 AM
  #800
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I would like that, though you seem to have a very American idea of what constitutes "close".
Im originally from Helsingborg, tho I live far from there now. If you live in eastern or southern germany then its far from me. But if Im in Helsingborg I can be in hamburg within liek 3 hours

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