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Your Official 2012 / 2013 "Lose out for draft position / staff change!" Thread

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Old
02-27-2013, 04:20 PM
  #101
michaelsaas
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I don't ever root for the team to lose but losses this season don't hurt as much, because I think we need a top pick to move to the next level, and this shortened season + excellent top end draft talent - is the perfect opportunity to tank.

Having said that, (all appearances so far to the contrary) I don't think our team is bad enough to finish in that position as it is currently configured. Darcy needs to move a player or two for prospects/picks to ensure the tank if that is really where the organisation wants to go. I would never root for nor expect the players to give up and stop trying. In fact, any player who does that should be moved ASAP regardless of talent.

I think if Leino comes back (not a fan of his before you start attacking me lol) and Foligno simplifies his game we might have a sheltered third line with some fire power. Not near the level of last year's FES line but still enough to get us into 10th or 9th place by season's end.

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02-27-2013, 04:22 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
I think we're almost talking past each other. I very much understand the value of high end talent as either a piece of the puzzle on the ice or as a trade chip. I've never argued you don't need high end talent to win or that drafting high isn't a good way to add that talent. I'm saying its not the only way and its not as foolproof as some on here believe.
This is the same straw man you keep using...
No one is saying it's the ONLY way
No one is saying it's fool proof

Quote:
I'm also responding to the idea some posters have that drafting high for several years, in and of itself, is a path to success. It isn't..
No one is making this argument either.

Using Chicago or Pittsburgh as examples, is not the same as saying it is the path "in and of itself" to success. Notice how the reference to those teams is followed by names like Toews, Kane, Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Fleury, etc The use of those players is contradictory to the idea that drafting high "in and of itself" leads to success. OBVIOUSLY, by using the examples of specific players, it is understood that you need to draft the right guys. And a bit of luck needs to be involved (good players available... not Stefan and Daigle).

Your blurring the lines of the debate, because you don't like the idea that the practical path to building a contender (given the current state) is to bottom out in the present.

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And realistically there is no way Pegula/Black or Regier will allow a team like that to be iced. Regardless of what posters think of it the management of this team will try to ice better team than the type it would take to draft high for several years.
Debatable... Ted Black is in the room.

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02-27-2013, 04:33 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by RazielMoshman View Post
LA had no offense and rode a hot goalie to the cup. We do need a better team but tweaking what we have is the best answer (better second line, no stafford or hecht, Developing Myers into a defensive leader and future captain, good captain and assistants). I hope, I dream. I'd take getting to the 2nd round or even just trying our best but showing we can be a team to be feared in a building that is difficult to play in.

Rebuilding is just what stressed out fans say who can't think logically. The same fans who wanted Ruff sacked then proclaimed they 'felt sad' about the decision made and chanted for him to come back.
Who wants him to come back? Make a poll and see how many say they want him back.

LA actually had good offense once their awful coach was fired, they had big fast bodies all over their forward corps, a bottom six that hit hard and provided secondary scoring, two 2 way centers in Richards and Kopitar, and a defense corps far, far superior than ours, not to mention having a historical goaltending performance from Quick. More importantly, all the stars aligned for that team. Comparing their team to ours is like comparing the sun and the moon, we are nothing like them. There is so much that needs to go right for us if we want to get to that sort of echelon of teams. Our top two centers is Hodgson and Ennis, we're banking that they turn into 70+ pt forwards because if they don't we're praying that Girgensons and Grigorenko turn into stud centermen. We are also hoping that Myers develops into a stud #1 defenseman, hoping our prospects turn into true difference makers on a team that has arguably one which is Vanek. It's a bunch of unknowns that have a better chance of not occuring than they do occuring.

Look at all the cup winners and compare their rosters to ours, where is our two way shutdown centers like Staal, Kopitar, Bergeron? In fact, do we have any shutdown players, much less centers. Where is our #1 defenseman like Doughty, Chara, Keith, etc. Myers has a long, LONG way to go if he's going to reach that and who knows if he ever will, he seems to lack hockey sense. There are so many holes in this line up everywhere.

We're soft, we're slow, we have no secondary scoring, we have weak leaders, no game breakers, and most of all we have no identity. We are a franchise in limbo and only the oblivious would spin it in any other way.


Last edited by start winnin: 02-27-2013 at 04:41 PM.
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02-27-2013, 04:43 PM
  #104
RazielMoshman
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Originally Posted by Stop Winnin View Post
Who wants him to come back? Make a poll and see how many say they want him back.

LA actually had good offense once their awful coach was fired, they had big fast bodies all over their forward corps, a bottom six that hit hard and provided secondary scoring, two 2 way centers in Richards and Kopitar, and a defense corps far, far superior than ours, not to mention having a historical goaltending performance from Quick. More importantly, all the stars aligned for that team. Comparing their team to ours is like comparing the sun and the moon, we are nothing like them. There is so much that needs to go right for us if we want to get to that sort of echelon of teams. Our top two centers is Hodgson and Ennis, we're banking that they turn into 70+ pt forwards because if they don't we're praying that Girgensons and Grigorenko turn into stud centermen. We are also hoping that Myers develops into a stud #1 defenseman, hoping our prospects turn into true difference makers on a team that has arguably one which is Vanek. It's a bunch of unknowns that have a better chance of not occuring than they do occuring.

Look at all the cup winners and compare their rosters to ours, where is our two way shutdown centers like Staal, Kopitar, Bergeron? In fact, do we have any shutdown players, much less centers. Where is our #1 defenseman like Doughty, Chara, Keith, etc. Myers has a long, LONG way to go if he's going to reach that and who knows if he ever will, he seems to lack hockey sense. There are so many holes in this line up everywhere.

We're soft, we're slow, we have no secondary scoring, we have weak leaders, no game breakers, and most of all we have no identity. We are a franchise in purgatory and only the oblivious would spin it in any other way.
Wow. you are depressing. Holy smokes.

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02-27-2013, 04:46 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
They did not suck their way to Crosby since there was no season. They lucked into getting him and they aren't winning a Cup without him.

The arguments have been about how previous Cup winners were built. The Pens won the Cup because they had Crosby (the best player in the game) along with their other talent (that you mention).

How they got Crosby is not something we can replicate. So lets not put words in my mouth (by claiming I said they would suck without him) and avoid the fact that how they got the crowning piece of their Cup winning team was through luck and not sucking.
I wasn't mentioning Crosby. I'm fully aware how Crosby got to Pittsburgh. Thanks.

Pittsburgh did suck to get those players I mentioned.

Don't like the Pens example? How about LA? Chicago?

Like Jame said, it isn't sure fire. Regier has to make the right pick, who has to pan out. But clearly the current plan to get better isn't working. Why not bottom out? Because the rest of your season as a STH would suck?

If getting MacKinnon means STHs are angry for 24 games, so be it. Think Chicago STHs are regretting how bad they were to get Kane and Toews?

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02-27-2013, 04:46 PM
  #106
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This season is in the drain, so I can honestly careless where they finish, but...

What about Myers, Grigorenko, and possibly Armia. Every one of them has star potential. Hell, Myers and Grigs have franchise player potential. Top 5 picks are nice, but they are not a necessity to become a cup contender.

As for that list Stanley cup winners with top 5 picks list, some of those teams didn't even draft and develop those picks, and Seguin had a very small impact on the bruins cup run.

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02-27-2013, 04:51 PM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RazielMoshman View Post
I just think that with a complete unknown coaching situation, several underachieving players, a suspect leadership situation on ice (I like pommer but it's not brilliant), completely relying on a sophmore as our no.1 center, a defensive leader who is struggling under the pressure the last think we need is another top rookie, we have grig, girg, hodg, Foligno among others. We need an experienced 2nd line center/RW. I don't think tanking is going to help, everyone is just going to feel cheap and our vets are going to want out and no-one will want to come here.
You don't think adding MacKinnon, Drouin, or Jones helps?

Are acquiring a two-way 2C and tanking mutually exclusive? If Buffalo tanks and gets MacKinnon, does that mean Regier can't work a deal for O'Reilly anymore?

See, I see getting an elite talent in this year's draft as the key to improving. Especially if it's MacKinnon. He would give Regier the option to trade center depth for other needs.

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02-27-2013, 04:51 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Der Jaeger View Post
I wasn't mentioning Crosby. I'm fully aware how Crosby got to Pittsburgh. Thanks.

Pittsburgh did suck to get those players I mentioned.

Don't like the Pens example? How about LA? Chicago?

Like Jame said, it isn't sure fire. Regier has to make the right pick, who has to pan out. But clearly the current plan to get better isn't working. Why not bottom out? Because the rest of your season as a STH would suck?

If getting MacKinnon means STHs are angry for 24 games, so be it. Think Chicago STHs are regretting how bad they were to get Kane and Toews?
Actually there weren't many season ticket holders as the United Center was pretty vacant and had been for a while due to the shoddy ownership. Wirtz died about the time that they bottomed out and the club started televising all their games to rebuild a declining fan base.

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02-27-2013, 04:53 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by RazielMoshman View Post
Wow. you are depressing. Holy smokes.
Sorry if the truth is depressing, but you did a nice job refuting my points.

If you want to believe this team can win in the playoffs much less win the cup, you're free to continue to delude yourself.

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02-27-2013, 04:55 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Dubi Doo View Post
This season is in the drain, so I can honestly careless where they finish, but...

What about Myers, Grigorenko, and possibly Armia. Every one of them has star potential. Hell, Myers and Grigs have franchise player potential. Top 5 picks are nice, but they are not a necessity to become a cup contender.

As for that list Stanley cup winners with top 5 picks list, some of those teams didn't even draft and develop those picks, and Seguin had a very small impact on the bruins cup run.
Top post, agreed.

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02-27-2013, 05:04 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Old Navy Goat View Post
Actually there weren't many season ticket holders as the United Center was pretty vacant and had been for a while due to the shoddy ownership. Wirtz died about the time that they bottomed out and the club started televising all their games to rebuild a declining fan base.
Replace "STH" with "fan/fans" and the idea is comparable. I'd glad exchange a terrible year for the better chance to add an elite talent.

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02-27-2013, 05:12 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
I think we're almost talking past each other. I very much understand the value of high end talent as either a piece of the puzzle on the ice or as a trade chip. I've never argued you don't need high end talent to win or that drafting high isn't a good way to add that talent. I":m saying its not the only way and its not as foolproof as some on here believe.
Is there much talk of it being foolproof? Done well, it works. Done poorly and it's the Blue Jackets. That's still the risk.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
I'm responding to the idea some posters have that drafting high for several years, in and of itself, is a path to success. It isn't. Even the Pens, with all that broke right for them, still needed some shrewd moves and a roster full of more than just a bunch of kids to have success.


I'm also seeing lineups in this thread made up of our current youngsters (Hodgson, Ennis, Foligno) and high end prospects (Grigs, Girgs, Armia) with players they hope we draft (Mackinnon) and 4 current roster players (SOme combo of Vanek, Pommer, Ott, Kaleta and Leino). Does anyone really think we will ever see that group together any time so? or that Pegual/Black or Reeir will allow us to ice a crappy team for very long?
They're in the beginnings of a rebuild, a culture shift if you will. They have a number of very young players playing key minutes -- Myers, Ennis, Hodgson, Foligno are all pups. We can hope the pipeline with the likes of the GGA trio, McNabb, Pysyk, McCabe all work out too. This is the start of that transition toward that youth and it's going to be ugly. This is not a single season transition though, and even with landing a big fish in this draft, it will probably take another season at least to plug some of the gaping roster holes on the team and/or season the kids into competent regulars. They can maximize value on a guy like Leopold and perhaps a guy like Regehr (not sure with the movement clause if he's willing to go anywhere) but they will have to replace Leopold's minutes. Right now, that's going to be on hope that McNabb/Pysyk can step into those minutes. Similarly, if Regehr decides he wants out of yet another non-playoff situation and moves on as a UFA, they will again need to fill those minutes and do so relative to cost with cap cuts pending. Young D-men take time (see Myers as a prime, live example). There will be growing pains back there, much like there are growing pains with the Hodgson/Ennis tandem this year.

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02-27-2013, 05:14 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
This is the same straw man you keep using...
No one is saying it's the ONLY way
No one is saying it's fool proof



No one is making this argument either.
Actually a few posters are. That you don't want to accept that is not my problem.

Quote:
Using Chicago or Pittsburgh as examples, is not the same as saying it is the path "in and of itself" to success. Notice how the reference to those teams is followed by names like Toews, Kane, Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Fleury, etc The use of those players is contradictory to the idea that drafting high "in and of itself" leads to success. OBVIOUSLY, by using the examples of specific players, it is understood that you need to draft the right guys. And a bit of luck needs to be involved (good players available... not Stefan and Daigle).

Your blurring the lines of the debate, because you don't like the idea that the practical path to building a contender (given the current state) is to bottom out in the present.
It incredible how divorced from reality yourself and others are on this issues. Do you even remember why the Pens teams in the years leading to the lockout were so bad? Its because the Pens were bleeding money and it eventually led to a bankruptcy. The Pens didn't ice good teams because the couldn't afford to not because they had some plan in place to rebuild the franchise. They were struggling to keep the team in existence and in Pittsburgh.

The Hawks sucked due to a crappy owner ("Dollar" Bill Wirtz). They were named the worst franchise in pro sports in 2004 by ESPN.

Quote:
Debatable... Ted Black is in the room.
And he knows that what the Pens did back then has ZERO relevance to the current Sabres.


No team tries to be unsuccessful for several seasons like the Pens did. When a team is crappy for that long its usually due to crappy ownership or financial hardship. Neither being the case here.


Last edited by joshjull: 02-27-2013 at 05:22 PM.
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Old
02-27-2013, 05:19 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Der Jaeger View Post
I wasn't mentioning Crosby. I'm fully aware how Crosby got to Pittsburgh. Thanks.

Pittsburgh did suck to get those players I mentioned.

Don't like the Pens example? How about LA? Chicago?

Like Jame said, it isn't sure fire. Regier has to make the right pick, who has to pan out. But clearly the current plan to get better isn't working. Why not bottom out? Because the rest of your season as a STH would suck?

If getting MacKinnon means STHs are angry for 24 games, so be it. Think Chicago STHs are regretting how bad they were to get Kane and Toews?
I'm not talking about bottoming out this season.

And see my explanation about the Pens and Hawks situations.



LA is a weird example of anything. They've never really been good other than a 4 month stretch at the end of last year and into the playoffs. Such is life in a cap world.

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02-27-2013, 05:37 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
I'm not talking about bottoming out this season.

And see my explanation about the Pens and Hawks situations.



LA is a weird example of anything. They've never really been good other than a 4 month stretch at the end of last year and into the playoffs. Such is life in a cap world.
Agreed,

But there were stretches where LA showed signs of being dominant the three seasons prior....they just could not find any consistency and Quick didn't become a big game goaltender until last season.

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02-27-2013, 05:43 PM
  #116
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If after lottery shakes out we have top 3 pick:

Take some combination of
Vanek, Pominville, Miller, Myers, 2014 1st, 2015 1st

and get O'Reilly and another top 3 pick in 2013

Hopefully draft MacKinnon and Drouin (not that I would mind 1 and Jones...)

Profit?

Edit: Not saying to use all of those pieces either, just saying use some of those to get both deals done. Yes, this is indeed a Dream World.

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02-27-2013, 05:50 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Actually a few posters are. That you don't want to accept that is not my problem
which ones
provide quotes where someone said "the only way is...." and "bottoming out/top picks AUTOMATICALLY lead to success"

I asked before... you failed to provide evidence

You need to believe people are making this argument because it provides better cover for your opposition.

Quote:
It incredible how divorced from reality yourself and others are on this issues. Do you even remember why the Pens teams in the years leading to the lockout were so bad? Its because the Pens were bleeding money and it eventually led to a bankruptcy. The Pens didn't ice good teams because the couldn't afford to not because they had some plan in place to rebuild the franchise. They were struggling to keep the team in existence and in Pittsburgh.


The Hawks sucked due to a crappy owner ("Dollar" Bill Wirtz). They were named the worst franchise in pro sports in 2004 by ESPN.
I'm not sure what your argument is. Why does the scenario under which the team sucked itself to multiple top picks matter?

It's the example of how talent is acquired. It's an example of top contending teams being largely built through the use of top tier draft picks.

Pittsburgh's financial situation is simply a tertiary factoid that you are using to deflect away from the argument about what is best for the Sabres in terms of rebuilding the franchise.



Quote:
And he knows that what the Pens did back then has ZERO relevance to the current Sabres.
He knows that a ****** franchise was rebuilt through multiple top picks

Quote:
No team tries to be unsuccessful for several seasons like the Pens did. When a team is crappy for that long its usually due to crappy ownership or financial hardship. Neither being the case here.
i think it's an irrelevant point. A team can TRY to rebuild by moving older players, expiring contracts, vets with short term value... and subsequently be unsuccessful while developing a future.

I think your use of terms like "several" is another move to blur the lines. I think the Sabres should attempt to rebuild, I don't think they have to be bad for several seasons... simply 1-2

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02-27-2013, 06:00 PM
  #118
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Like I have said and shown. NO TEAM has won a cup since the Avalanche in 2001 without a top 3 draft pick on their roster. Even that team was able to acquire supreme talent Forsberg, Sakic, Roy, Bourque, Foote, Drury etc.

We need to acquire top talent. Free Agency doesn't only make you overpay, but most guys won't sign in Buffalo especially when we are a bottom tier team.

Take the top 3 pick as it will help ensure better years ahead instead of 8-10 place finish and a mini winning streak

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02-27-2013, 06:08 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
I'm not talking about bottoming out this season.

And see my explanation about the Pens and Hawks situations.



LA is a weird example of anything. They've never really been good other than a 4 month stretch at the end of last year and into the playoffs. Such is life in a cap world.
Does it really matter the circumstances for how each team got to their poor record(s)? How exactly is good/poor ownership related to talent acquisition? The Kings bottomed out with the AEG ownership group, who didn't have the Kings in the same situation as Chicago or Pittsburgh.

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02-27-2013, 06:14 PM
  #120
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Imagine these set ups just for fun

Scenario 1
Stafford and 2nd for 15th overall
Vanek and 1st in 14 for 2nd overall and a 3rd round pick

Ennis-Hodgson-Pominville - Top line
Foligno-Grigorenko-Erne - Banger in Foligno to get the puck to Rempart teammates
Drouin-MacKinnon-Armia - Young Offensive line
Ott-Porter-Kaleta - prototypical 4th line

OR

Sekera, Girgensons for ROR
Vanek, 1st in 14 for 2nd overall, 3rd round pick

Ennis-Hodgson-Armia - TOP SCORING LINE
Foligno-ROR-Pominville - 2 WAY SHUTDOWN SCORING LINE
Drouin-MacKinnon-Grigorenko - THE Q LINE
Ott-Porter-Kaleta - 4TH LINE WHO CAN BANG AND PLAY

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02-27-2013, 06:29 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by JPurp26 View Post
Imagine these set ups just for fun

Scenario 1
Stafford and 2nd for 15th overall
Vanek and 1st in 14 for 2nd overall and a 3rd round pick

Ennis-Hodgson-Pominville - Top line
Foligno-Grigorenko-Erne - Banger in Foligno to get the puck to Rempart teammates
Drouin-MacKinnon-Armia - Young Offensive line
Ott-Porter-Kaleta - prototypical 4th line

OR

Sekera, Girgensons for ROR
Vanek, 1st in 14 for 2nd overall, 3rd round pick

Ennis-Hodgson-Armia - TOP SCORING LINE
Foligno-ROR-Pominville - 2 WAY SHUTDOWN SCORING LINE
Drouin-MacKinnon-Grigorenko - THE Q LINE
Ott-Porter-Kaleta - 4TH LINE WHO CAN BANG AND PLAY
I see we are in the same dream world. Excellent haha

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02-27-2013, 06:54 PM
  #122
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This team will lose a lot of games anyway. I'm not worried; I can't see this roster tearing it up the next games. We're gonna get our top 3 pick easly.

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02-27-2013, 06:57 PM
  #123
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I'm all for the 1-2 year rebuild like most of the people who have posted here. I'd just like to say stop dreaming about acquiring a second top 3 or 5 pick. Everyone knows there is top talent in the draft and whoever they can get in that spot has franchise player potential. Teams aren't going to risk missing out on that player considering that, barring an unlikely winner in the lottery, will be bottom feeders looking to build a young core. Getting said potential top player with 7 years of organizational control is worth too much.

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02-27-2013, 07:00 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by Luceni View Post
This team will lose a lot of games anyway. I'm not worried; I can't see this roster tearing it up the next games. We're gonna get our top 3 pick easly.
Easily is quite a stretch. Even a 3 game winning streak will have a massive effect on the Sabres' place in the standings. The only way we're guaranteed to be in the top 3 is to finish 29th or 30th. That's far from a certainty.

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02-27-2013, 08:19 PM
  #125
Dubi Doo
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I did some research on this, because it was interesting to me:

The last 10 years had 22 teams with a top 5 pick:

Edmonton with 3 picks
Columbus with 1 pick
Montreal with 2
NYI with 3
Toronto with 2
Colorado with 5
Florida with 4
NJD with 1
Bos with 2
Tampa with 3
Atlanta with 3
LA with 3
St Loius with 2
Chi with 3
PHI with 2
PHX with 2
Wash with 3
Pit with 5
Ana with one
Car with 3
Min with 1
Buffalo with 1

We'll only include Stanley cup winners from the lock out to present, because of the addition of the salary cap.

Carolina won in 05-06: They had 3 top 5 picks in 2003(2), 2004 (4), 2005 (3)
Anaheim won in 06-07: They had one top 5 pick in 2005 (2)
Detriot won in 07-08: They had no top 5 picks
Pittsburgh won in 2008-2009: They had 5 top 5 picks all before they won the cup
Chicago won in 2009-2010: They had 3 top 5 picks
Boston won in 2010-2011: They had two top 5 picks, but they traded Kessel for Seguin, so in reality it's one top 5 pick, because they wouldn't have the seguin pick if they didn't have Kessel (Another top 5 pick)
LA won last year: They had 3 top 5 picks

Anaheim, Detriot, and Boston are teams who probably would've won the cup without a top 5 pick. Seguin didn't produce much for Boston, Ryan played 2 games for Anaheim, and Detriot had no recent top 5 picks.

Carolina, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and LA are prime examples of tank teams, but they all had at least 3 top 5 picks. That'd mean Buffalo would have to be crappy for 3 consecutive years for our tank to be worth while. According to the stats.

But with these success stories like Carolina, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and LA there are plenty of teams who haven't even played in the finals like NYI, Colorado, FLA, Tampa Bay, Atlanta (WIN), and Wash. All of these teams have had at least 3 top 5 picks in the last 10 years.

So lets do the math

22 teams with a top 5 pick
6 have won the cup since the lockout, but two of those teams top 5 picks had limited or no impact at all on their teams success
One team won the cup with no top 5 picks
4 of those teams tank jobs correlates with them winning the cup
All 4 have had at least 3 top 5 picks
6 other teams with at least 3 top 5 picks haven't even made the cup finals


There are a ton of variables that are impossible to measure like how good a teams coaching, development, drafting, and management are, but it seems you'll need at least a few top 5 picks to have a great benefit. I'm not sure the cost is worth the reward.

This season is an exception, because Buffalo is already down and out, but consistent tanking is not necessary.


Last edited by Dubi Doo: 02-27-2013 at 08:26 PM.
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