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2013 Playoff Seeding Possibility Update

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Old
04-25-2013, 09:38 AM
  #1
MNNumbers
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2013 Playoff Seeding Possibility Update

The purpose of this thread is simply to keep all information regarding playoff seeding for Wild in a place where it is readily available to anyone, without needing to wade through the season thread:
THIS POST IS UPDATED TO INCLUDE FRIDAY'S GAMES THAT MATTER

As of Thursday PM (2 days left in the reg season):
#1 - Chicago = locked in
#2 - Anaheim = locked in
#3 - Vancouver = locked in

#4 - StL 58 pts, 1 game remaining, out of reach for the Wild, but not clinched for StL

#5 - LA 57 pts, 1 game remaining, and out of reach for the Wild.

#6 - SJ 57 pts, 1 game remaining and out of reach for the Wild

#7 - Det 54 pts, 1 game remaining
#8 - Wild 53 pts, 1 game remaining

#9 - Colum 53 pts, 1 game remaining

Possibilities for the Wild
#1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are all out of reach

#7 - Requires passing Detroit and staying ahead of Columbus.
#8 - Requires being ahead of either Detroit or Columbus.

To stay ahead of Columbus, since the Wild hold the tiebreak, requires any combination of 2 favorable standings points. So, either Columbus loses in regulation Saturday night, or the Wild win Saturday night, or the 2 teams together combine for 2 OT losses.

To stay ahead of Detroit, first note that the Wild hold the tie break. Thus, to pass Detroit requires simply gaining 1 more point than Detroit tomorrow. So, if Detroit wins, the best the Wild can do is 7th. If Detroit get OTL, the Wild need to win. If Detroit loses in regulation, the Wild need at least OTL

I hope that is clear, and I will update each night or morning.


Last edited by MNNumbers: 04-26-2013 at 09:52 PM. Reason: Friday night games finished
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Old
04-25-2013, 10:02 AM
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IMO- the Kings will beat the Sharks, so if the Wild can win out they will be the 6 seed.

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Old
04-25-2013, 10:35 AM
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Awesome. Thanks for breaking it down!

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04-25-2013, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted by J22 View Post
IMO- the Kings will beat the Sharks, so if the Wild can win out they will be the 6 seed.
Honestly, I want the 7th seed. Anaheim is the weakest team in the top 4 currently. Vancouver has been firing on all cylinders, we all know what Chicago is capable of. And LA has a whole lot of fire power. Anaheim is a good playoff caliber team, boasted early on by freakishly good goaltending and timely scoring. They havent been quite as good lately and are the most vulnerable in my opinion.

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04-25-2013, 11:44 AM
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Projected Standings and Stats
RankTeamGPPtsProjPythMagicG/GRankGA/GRankS/GRankPP%RankPK%Rank
1CHICAGO467578.378.2In3.152nd2.021st31.25th17.117th87.04th
2ANAHEIM466466.866.6In2.788th2.378th27.623rd21.15th81.412th
3VANCOUVER465961.661.5In2.5916th2.284th28.119th15.223rd84.67th
4ST LOUIS465658.458.4In2.5418th2.4410th28.021st19.712th84.08th
5LOS ANGELES475758.258.3In2.7212th2.389th29.911th20.011th83.210th
6SAN JOSE475758.258.2In2.4323rd2.326th31.94th20.110th84.96th
7MINNESOTA465355.355.222.4820th2.5614th28.517th17.816th80.321st
8DETROIT465254.354.432.4820th2.357th29.812th18.615th81.412th
9COLUMBUS465153.253.242.3725th2.4611th26.129th12.830th83.011th
10PHOENIX464850.150.2Out2.4422nd2.5614th30.78th14.327th80.818th
11DALLAS464850.150.1Out2.7610th2.9423rd26.328th17.018th81.314th
12CALGARY464243.843.9Out2.7411th3.2629th27.125th20.57th81.215th
13EDMONTON464142.842.9Out2.3924th2.7820th26.826th20.29th83.59th
14NASHVILLE464142.842.9Out2.3029th2.7218th26.129th17.018th75.929th
15COLORADO463738.638.7Out2.3725th3.1127th29.513th14.128th81.016th

Still got the Wild in 7th.



Also, here's the remaining schedule:

Los Angeles 57
vs SJS

San Jose 57
@ LAK

St Louis 56
vs CGY
vs CHI

Minnesota 53
vs EDM
@ COL

Detroit 52
vs NSH
@ DAL

Columbus 51
@ DAL
vs NSH

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Old
04-25-2013, 11:46 AM
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Looking at the schedule, I would guess:

1. Chicago
2. Anaheim
3. Vancouver
4. St Louis
5. Los Angeles
6. San Jose
7. Minnesota
8. Detroit

(1) Chicago vs (8) Detroit (NBC loves this one)
(2) Anaheim vs (7) Minnesota (yawner)
(3) Vancouver vs (6) San Jose (good matchup for TV)
(4) St Louis vs (5) LA Kings (Blues try to get their revenge...nice)

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04-25-2013, 11:58 AM
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Looks like we're bound to get either the 6th or 7th seed. Either way that is the best case scenario for the wild. I honestly think we have a good chance of beating both Anaheim and Vancouver. That is IF we stay healthy.

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04-25-2013, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Wildfan10 View Post
Looks like we're bound to get either the 6th or 7th seed. Either way that is the best case scenario for the wild. I honestly think we have a good chance of beating both Anaheim and Vancouver. That is IF we stay healthy.
I think Detroit wins out, so if the Wild wants anything other then 8th they need at least 3 points.

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04-25-2013, 12:28 PM
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I think Detroit wins out, so if the Wild wants anything other then 8th they need at least 3 points.
Wild have a lot better chance a winning out than Detroit.

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Old
04-25-2013, 12:52 PM
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Surprising how much the standings could change if we win out and St. Louis, and San Jose/LA lose in regulation (would have to be more than once for St. Louis for us to leapfrog them).

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04-25-2013, 02:50 PM
  #11
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Thank you for this thread! I so appreciate it. It is crystal clear.

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Old
04-25-2013, 04:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Looking at the schedule, I would guess:

1. Chicago
2. Anaheim
3. Vancouver
4. St Louis
5. Los Angeles
6. San Jose
7. Minnesota
8. Detroit

(1) Chicago vs (8) Detroit (NBC loves this one)
(2) Anaheim vs (7) Minnesota (yawner)
(3) Vancouver vs (6) San Jose (good matchup for TV)
(4) St Louis vs (5) LA Kings (Blues try to get their revenge...nice)
That pretty much matches up with my thinking as well.

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04-25-2013, 04:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Looking at the schedule, I would guess:

1. Chicago
2. Anaheim
3. Vancouver
4. St Louis
5. Los Angeles
6. San Jose
7. Minnesota
8. Detroit

(1) Chicago vs (8) Detroit (NBC loves this one)
(2) Anaheim vs (7) Minnesota (yawner)
(3) Vancouver vs (6) San Jose (good matchup for TV)
(4) St Louis vs (5) LA Kings (Blues try to get their revenge...nice)

It would take a very specific set of circumstances for it to play out like this actually.

the first three seeds are locked in to place.

for St. louis to finish 4th and the Kings in 5th- Blues have to win out, including a win over the Hawks and the Kings have to beat the sharks.

If that ^^ happens then the Sharks have to force OT or have the Wild lose atleast 1 point against Oilers/Avs, for the Sharks to remain in the 6th seed.

If the Wild gives up a point to the Oil/Avs then they need Detroit to give up atleast 1 point to Dal/Nas, for the Wild to hold on to the 7th seed.

The only thing that I am pretty sure of, is that the Blues are going to improve their spot from 6th. Everybody else still has a very good chance of going either way

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04-25-2013, 04:50 PM
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St Louis should beat Calgary, they only need a point out of Chicago at home to get home ice...I think they will be more motivated.

LA I think beats SJ because they have home ice and have been more consistent.

Minnesota has a point over Detroit now and an easier schedule, but they won't catch LA/SJ.

Just my guess.

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04-25-2013, 04:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
St Louis should beat Calgary, they only need a point out of Chicago at home to get home ice...I think they will be more motivated.

LA I think beats SJ because they have home ice and have been more consistent.

Minnesota has a point over Detroit now and an easier schedule, but they won't catch LA/SJ.

Just my guess.

If LA beats SJ then the Blues need to beat Chicago to get the 4.

If LA beats SJ then I think the Wild finish either 6th or 8th

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04-25-2013, 05:03 PM
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St Louis doesn't need to beat Chicago, just get a point out of the game. That would give 60 points and the winner of LA-SJ has 59.

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04-25-2013, 05:05 PM
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I think the eight teams will be solidified tonight. Dallas will beat Columbus and Detroit will beat Nashville. Only thing left will be jockeying for positions 4-8. The Kings are playing terrible but I think they will beat the Sharks at home. The Blues are starting to click and I could see them as the 5th seed. I believe the Wild win out and jump the Sharks for the 6th spot leaving the Sharks at seve7th and Red Wings at the 8th seed. So my Western Conference bracket looks like this:

1. Blackhawks vs. 8. Red Wings
2. Ducks vs. 7. Sharks
3. Canucks vs. 6. Wild
4. Kings vs. 5. Blues

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04-25-2013, 05:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
St Louis doesn't need to beat Chicago, just get a point out of the game. That would give 60 points and the winner of LA-SJ has 59.
Not by the numbers that I am looking at. Blues are 1 point back of SJ LA currently.

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04-25-2013, 05:41 PM
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OP here. Posting again. I appreciate all the discussion, I really do. Can I make a humble request?
Can we please keep the 'here is my guess' to a minimum? I would like this thread to be a place where anyone can go and immediately find the current situation, without needing to read through lots of discussion.

Like I say, I like the discussion, I really do, but I would like this one to be "HARD INFORMATION" if we can do that.

Thanks. And, I know I am not a mod, but this is my request anyway.

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04-25-2013, 05:45 PM
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More hard information regarding 4th, 5th, 6th:
Since SJ and LA play each other, one has to win, and end with 59 pts. St Louis has to pass that team to get to 4th. Obviously, 2 wins does that. 3 pts would get them past San Jose, but not LA.
So: If LA wins Sat night, StL needs to win both games to be 4th.
If SJ wins Sat night, StL needs 3 pts to be 4th.

And, it's funny that the games will actually be played in the opposite order.

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04-25-2013, 10:11 PM
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St. Louis wins tonight, so it's impossible for us to pass them in the standings now. If we win both of our remaining games and San Jose loses in regulation against LA Saturday, we would get the 6th seed and face Vancouver in the first round. It has to be San Jose that loses in regulation, because we own the tiebreaker over them due to San Jose's 8 SO wins, but LA owns the tiebreaker over us.

Detroit winning on Saturday and us only getting three points is where it gets complicated. The first tiebreaker is wins excluding shootout wins, and both Detroit and us have 21 right now. So depending on how Detroit wins their game and we win ours, it could determine the tiebreaker. We own the next tiebreaker over Detroit due to us taking 4 of the 6 points in the season series against them.


Last edited by Billy Mays Here: 04-25-2013 at 10:16 PM.
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Old
04-25-2013, 10:18 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy Mays Here View Post
St. Louis wins tonight, so it's impossible for us to pass them in the standings now. If we win both of our remaining games and San Jose loses in regulation against LA Saturday, we would get the 6th seed and face Vancouver in the first round. It has to be San Jose that loses in regulation, because we own the tiebreaker over them due to San Jose's 8 SO wins, but LA owns the tiebreaker over us.

Detroit winning on Saturday and us only getting three points is where it gets complicated. The first tiebreaker is wins excluding shootout wins, and both Detroit and us have 21 right now. So depending on how Detroit wins their game and we win ours, it could determine the tiebreaker. We own the next tiebreaker over Detroit due to us taking 4 of the 6 points in the season series against them.
The first game in the venue that had more games does not count.

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Old
04-25-2013, 10:22 PM
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The first game in the venue that had more games does not count.
So 4 out of 4 then?

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Old
04-25-2013, 10:25 PM
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MNNumbers
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After Thurs Apr 25 games

As of Thursday PM (2 days left in the reg season):
#1 - Chicago = locked in
#2 - Anaheim = locked in
#3 - Vancouver = locked in

#4 - StL 58 pts, 1 game remaining, out of reach for the Wild, but not clinched for StL

#5 - LA 57 pts, 1 game remaining, and out of reach for the Wild, because of tiebreaks

#6 - SJ 57 pts, 1 game remaining and the Wild would have the tiebreak in case of a tie

#7 - Det 54 pts, 1 game remaining
#8 - Wild 53 pts, 2 games remaining

#9 - Colum 53 pts, 1 game remaining

Possibilities for the Wild
#1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 are all out of reach (#5 because LA has the tiebreak)

#6 - Requires passing SJ. To pass SJ, SJ must lose in regulation, and the Wild must win both games.

#7 - Requires passing Detroit and staying ahead of Columbus.
#8 - Requires being ahead of either Detroit or Columbus.

To stay ahead of Columbus, since the Wild hold the tiebreak, requires any combination of 2 favorable standings points. So, either the Wild win Friday night, or Columbus loses in regulation Saturday night, or the Wild win Saturday night, or the 2 teams together combine for 2 OT losses.

To stay ahead of Detroit, first note that the Wild hold the tie break in any scenario other than Detroit winning their game in Reg/OT and the Wild winning none in Reg/OT. Thus, to stay ahead of Detroit requires either 2 wins by the Wild, or (3 favorable standings points + (either one Detroit result that is not a ROW, or one ROW for the Wild)). For example, Detroit wins a SO Saturday night, and the Wild win on Friday(even a SO works here) and get OTL on Saturday night. Or, Det wins on Sat, the Wild in ROW Fri and get OTL on Saturday.

I hope that is clear, and I will update each night or morning.


Last edited by MNNumbers: 04-25-2013 at 10:37 PM.
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Old
04-25-2013, 10:32 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post
As of Thursday AM (3 days left in the reg season):
Maybe you should edit these updates to the OP? Would make it easier to follow in spite of the inevitable blabbering.

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