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Around the League 2013 Part II

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Old
03-19-2013, 03:45 PM
  #651
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Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
I'd rather have Ryan anyway. Maybe Dean can do another sneaky Justin Williams-like 3-way trade.



We are alos lucky to have 2 players the calibre of Carter and Richards on contracts with friendly cap hits.
That would be unrealistic cap hits under the current CBA.

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Old
03-19-2013, 03:58 PM
  #652
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The Ducks are directionless. What happens when Selanne and Koivu inevitably retire? How long until Bodreau coaches another high offensive output team to an early playoff exit?

There hasn't been a bigger fluke all year than the Ducks. Really hate that team and I can't wait until they get hammered in the playoffs. Their poor possession statistics will be exposed over the course of a 7 game series.

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03-19-2013, 04:06 PM
  #653
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They have a direction, check out their prospect system. Ducks are stacked. Weirdo for a coach but the team has been built correctly.

Sutter's comments on Brian Campbell today were amusing.

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On whether Doughty should pick his spots on when attempting to use the impressive “one-man breakout” he used in the first period against Phoenix last night:

“Well, if you do that all the time, you’re not a very good player. You’re Brian Campbell in Florida. You’ll be minus-20 and we’ll see you on the highlights. But you’re on a bad team, and you’re a high-minus player. So this is not a movie about a star, right? He’s a good first-pass guy, and if he’s good in his own zone – hey, it tells you where he is now from the start of the year. At the start of the year, he was a minus-10. So in the last three weeks, he’s a plus-eight. So where does that start? It starts in your own zone. Good first pass. Don’t have to beat five guys. Make a good first pass. Not many guys are capable of doing it at high speed, under pressure, and knowing full well that the other team is coming after [you]. Not many players can do that.”
http://lakingsinsider.com/2013/03/19...er/#more-29967

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Old
03-19-2013, 04:07 PM
  #654
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They have a direction, check out their prospect system. Ducks are stacked. Weirdo for a coach but the team has been built correctly.

Sutter's comments on Brian Campbell today were amusing.



http://lakingsinsider.com/2013/03/19...er/#more-29967
this. kings fans should be glad they have cheap owners.

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03-19-2013, 04:08 PM
  #655
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Yeah, that's the good thing. I doubt the Ducks will pay to keep all those guys when they reach their potential.

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03-19-2013, 04:13 PM
  #656
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Originally Posted by Richie10 View Post
The Ducks are directionless. What happens when Selanne and Koivu inevitably retire? How long until Bodreau coaches another high offensive output team to an early playoff exit?

There hasn't been a bigger fluke all year than the Ducks. Really hate that team and I can't wait until they get hammered in the playoffs. Their poor possession statistics will be exposed over the course of a 7 game series.
This is one of the reasons they picked up Steckel.

Have I mentioned that I am really enjoying the meltdowns I am seeing on the Vancouver, San Jose, and Detroit boards.

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Old
03-19-2013, 05:08 PM
  #657
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Originally Posted by Richie10 View Post
The Ducks are directionless. What happens when Selanne and Koivu inevitably retire? How long until Bodreau coaches another high offensive output team to an early playoff exit?

There hasn't been a bigger fluke all year than the Ducks. Really hate that team and I can't wait until they get hammered in the playoffs. Their poor possession statistics will be exposed over the course of a 7 game series.
Yup. Looking at their stats you can quickly see how much they are getting lucky, which simply cannot continue.

Type - Stat - League Rank
Fenwick - 45.97 - 25th
SF/60 - 23.08 - 27th
SA/60 - 26.06 - 16th
PDO - 1.047 - 1st

These type of stats are why people did not buy Minnesota last year, or Toronto either this year or last. You cannot get outplayed night after night and depend upon absurdly high shooting and save percentage % longterm. It simply does not work like that. Eventually teams regress closer to the mean.

Ducks have maintained it long enough that they will have no problem making playoffs in this shortened season, but they are not even close to the team they seem to be.

Combine that with having to build a completely new 2nd line next season with no a whole hell of lot of capspace, nevermind any internal budget they probably face, and I am really not all that concerned about them as a long term threat.

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Old
03-19-2013, 05:30 PM
  #658
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^^

Yep 7th is definitely the jackpot seed for the away teams

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Old
03-19-2013, 06:28 PM
  #659
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Yup. Looking at their stats you can quickly see how much they are getting lucky, which simply cannot continue.

Type - Stat - League Rank
Fenwick - 45.97 - 25th
SF/60 - 23.08 - 27th
SA/60 - 26.06 - 16th
PDO - 1.047 - 1st

These type of stats are why people did not buy Minnesota last year, or Toronto either this year or last. You cannot get outplayed night after night and depend upon absurdly high shooting and save percentage % longterm. It simply does not work like that. Eventually teams regress closer to the mean.

Ducks have maintained it long enough that they will have no problem making playoffs in this shortened season, but they are not even close to the team they seem to be.

Combine that with having to build a completely new 2nd line next season with no a whole hell of lot of capspace, nevermind any internal budget they probably face, and I am really not all that concerned about them as a long term threat.
Anaheim isn't getting outplayed night after night. Just saying... This isn't baseball. Advanced stats might have their place, but they don't replace actually watching the games to see who the better team is. It also pains me to see statistics used so obviously wrong. A statistic that leans so heavily on shots, for example, leans on certain assumptions in its claims for accuracy. Not every shot is equal, so why are they being treated that way?

Furthermore, the Ducks have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL. I'd put them in the top 5. They have some serious talent on the way, as well as some young talent already taking their first steps in the NHL. You may not want to believe it, but the Ducks have a nice future ahead of them. Their cap situation should be fine, for a couple of years at least. After that, who can say?

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03-19-2013, 06:38 PM
  #660
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Yeah I don't know about this luck thing and the Ducks being 7-0-3 in their last 10 and 12-1-0 at home...

They're firing on all cylinders with their top players and their depth players all contributing. If it holds up remains to be seen, but they're playing a cut above everyone else right now. The Ducks are a +26, 3rd best behind Chicago and Pittsburgh.

Attributing their run to luck is misguided.

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Old
03-19-2013, 06:39 PM
  #661
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Anaheim isn't getting outplayed night after night. Just saying... This isn't baseball. Advanced stats might have their place, but they don't replace actually watching the games to see who the better team is. It also pains me to see statistics used so obviously wrong. A statistic that leans so heavily on shots, for example, leans on certain assumptions in its claims for accuracy. Not every shot is equal, so why are they being treated that way?

Furthermore, the Ducks have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL. I'd put them in the top 5. They have some serious talent on the way, as well as some young talent already taking their first steps in the NHL. You may not want to believe it, but the Ducks have a nice future ahead of them. Their cap situation should be fine, for a couple of years at least. After that, who can say?
Watched the Ducks quite a bit this year hoping they would lose and they don't. Gotta agree with Sojourn they are good. I can't help but think that they're Capitals 2.0 though. Come playoff time they could be suprised by a hot #7 or #8 seed.

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Old
03-19-2013, 06:44 PM
  #662
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
Anaheim isn't getting outplayed night after night. Just saying... This isn't baseball. Advanced stats might have their place, but they don't replace actually watching the games to see who the better team is. It also pains me to see statistics used so obviously wrong. A statistic that leans so heavily on shots, for example, leans on certain assumptions in its claims for accuracy. Not every shot is equal, so why are they being treated that way?

Furthermore, the Ducks have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL. I'd put them in the top 5. They have some serious talent on the way, as well as some young talent already taking their first steps in the NHL. You may not want to believe it, but the Ducks have a nice future ahead of them. Their cap situation should be fine, for a couple of years at least. After that, who can say?
Used wrong? This is exactly how they were used to predict the fall of Minnesota last year, the fall of Toronto both last year and this year, the rise of the Kings last year, etc , etc.

This whole "not all shots are equal" is fallacy. One shot is obviously not equal to the next, but over the course of the longterm it evens out to make so little difference so as to be irrelevant. Easiest way to prove that, is despite this myth about how Hitchcock and Tippett raise save percentages of goalies by playing smart defense and keep shots to the outside, statistcally speaking they raise their goalies .04% and .06%. Not really a difference.

It pains you to see the stats applied since you don't want to face facts. Anaheim is an average team that is VASTLY overachieving and bound to fail. They are not being applied wrong at all, you just don't want to face the truth. Sorry bro, truth hurts.

I do watch the games. Ducks are playing great right now. Still not sustainable with the talent level on that team.

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03-19-2013, 06:46 PM
  #663
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Watched the Ducks quite a bit this year hoping they would lose and they don't. Gotta agree with Sojourn they are good. I can't help but think that they're Capitals 2.0 though. Come playoff time they could be suprised by a hot #7 or #8 seed.
I've mentioned this to LITN before, but I'm not sure they are built for the playoffs. Not the way a team like Boston or Los Angeles is. It wouldn't surprise me to exactly that scenario happen.

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Old
03-19-2013, 06:51 PM
  #664
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Used wrong? This is exactly how they were used to predict the fall of Minnesota last year, the fall of Toronto both last year and this year, the rise of the Kings last year, etc , etc.

This whole "not all shots are equal" is fallacy. One shot is obviously not equal to the next, but over the course of the longterm it evens out to make so little difference so as to be irrelevant. Easiest way to prove that, is despite this myth about how Hitchcock and Tippett raise save percentages of goalies by playing smart defense and keep shots to the outside, statistcally speaking they raise their goalies .04% and .06%. Not really a difference.

It pains you to see the stats applied since you don't want to face facts. Anaheim is an average team that is VASTLY overachieving and bound to fail. They are not being applied wrong at all, you just don't want to face the truth. Sorry bro, truth hurts.

I do watch the games. Ducks are playing great right now. Still not sustainable with the talent level on that team.
So, I guess in your world regression to the mean is causal. In the real world, however, that isn't the case. It works well in averaging the average.

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03-19-2013, 06:55 PM
  #665
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So, I guess in your world regression to the mean is causal. In the real world, however, that isn't the case. It works well in averaging the average.
Not neccessarily. Top teams like CHI and yes LA are high up in the standings and high up in things like SF/60, SA/60. Bottom teams like EDM, COL, NSH are near the bottom. That makes sense.

But when a team is near the top of the standings, but ranks really low in possession, gets out shot constantly, being maintained by a high PDO, well then you have to expect something to give. Either the team starts to play up to their record, or the team regresses in the standings. Option B is way more likely.

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03-19-2013, 07:13 PM
  #666
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Not neccessarily. Top teams like CHI and yes LA are high up in the standings and high up in things like SF/60, SA/60. Bottom teams like EDM, COL, NSH are near the bottom. That makes sense.

But when a team is near the top of the standings, but ranks really low in possession, gets out shot constantly, being maintained by a high PDO, well then you have to expect something to give. Either the team starts to play up to their record, or the team regresses in the standings. Option B is way more likely.
I suppose I'll just go back in time and tell Nashville that they were supposed to suck last season, shall I? Do you want to do it for me? I'd really appreciate it.

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03-19-2013, 07:14 PM
  #667
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I suppose I'll just go back in time and tell Nashville that they were supposed to suck last season, shall I? Do you want to do it for me? I'd really appreciate it.
I'm still working out the kinks on my time machine, can anyone else handle this?

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03-19-2013, 07:16 PM
  #668
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Statistics are meaningless if the results do not correlate to what they say. I don't believe in regression to the mean. If that was the case we would have never made it out of the WCF. Or Quick will keep sucking. I don't believe that at all.

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03-19-2013, 07:21 PM
  #669
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The Ducks do have few new guys seemingly playing over their heads and they will need to replace most of their second line in the near future, but the young guys will get playoff experience and Beauchemin and the defense is playing very well.

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03-19-2013, 07:23 PM
  #670
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Anaheim isn't getting outplayed night after night. Just saying... This isn't baseball. Advanced stats might have their place, but they don't replace actually watching the games to see who the better team is. It also pains me to see statistics used so obviously wrong. A statistic that leans so heavily on shots, for example, leans on certain assumptions in its claims for accuracy. Not every shot is equal, so why are they being treated that way?
So Nick Bonino getting a hat trick vs LA on three lucky shots is the norm?

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03-19-2013, 07:33 PM
  #671
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Bob allowed a goal?!? Blasphemy!

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03-19-2013, 07:44 PM
  #672
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I suppose I'll just go back in time and tell Nashville that they were supposed to suck last season, shall I? Do you want to do it for me? I'd really appreciate it.
No need to go to all that trouble, just go ask to look at their cup. See, the stats end up proving themselves out eventually and the playoffs are where they usually end up doing so.

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03-19-2013, 08:42 PM
  #673
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Columbus is in 8th place!

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03-19-2013, 08:46 PM
  #674
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Columbus is in 8th place!
Well actually 10th place, but tied in points (SJS and PHO both hold the #1 and #2 tiebreaks against Columbus).

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03-19-2013, 08:46 PM
  #675
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Columbus is in 8th place!
Good for them, but you almost wonder if this year would be okay to be bottom 5 and get a great offensive player in Mackinnon or Drouin or Barkov than to make playoffs but maybe lost 1st round.

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