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Flames sign O'Reilly to Offer Sheet

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02-28-2013, 06:07 PM
  #676
Rhaego
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Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
I like Dreger, but I think LeBrun is the best in the business IMO with McKenzie as a 1B.
He got that from a GM. He said early he didn't think they'd match

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02-28-2013, 06:08 PM
  #677
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
Posters on HF wildly overrate picks between 6th-15th. You have a 10% chance to get a player as good or better than O'Reilly, deep draft (most overused term on HF) or not.
Very true, but for people like me and RS who watch the prospects this draft is good.

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02-28-2013, 06:08 PM
  #678
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Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
Only?

It was 17,2,2 iirc and caused the entire NHL to rethink contracts. Sakic would never have sniffed that kind of cash, that was what, third in the entire league?
Yes, "only". First season is ridiculous but it evens out in the end. They look at it as him being a steal in years two and three.

Didn't Federov get $30M in his first season when he signed an offer sheet?

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02-28-2013, 06:09 PM
  #679
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
Posters on HF wildly overrate picks between 6th-15th. You have a 10% chance to get a player as good or better than O'Reilly, deep draft (most overused term on HF) or not.
Quote:
6 through 10:
here it starts to get dicey
20 of 46 forwards didn't pan out (.465)
9 of 18 dmen didn't pan out (.500)
all 6 goalies did not pan out
overall, selecting in this zone over the 1994-07 time frame meant batting .500

11 through 15:
24 of 46 forwards selected didn't pan out (.522)
7 of 18 dmen selected didn't pan out (.389)
3 of 6 goalies selected didn't pan out (.500)
34 of 70 picks in this range over that time didn't pan out (.486)
#15 overall pick was particularly a death sentence spot, as only 2 weren't complete misses and one of those two was Radulov.
I agree and so does the statistics behind the draft. This is the probability we get at least a top six/top four player. Basically less than 50% we get a David Jones even.

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02-28-2013, 06:09 PM
  #680
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Sakic won a Cup for us. I never begrudged him signing that offer sheet. It was the offseason. He didn't hold out. He didn't sign in Russia.

O'Reilly scored less points playing alongside the Calder winner than Duchene did as an 18 year old with Darcy Tucker and 2 more than Stastny's worst ever season in a year that we tanked.

The two situations are not even remotely comparable.

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02-28-2013, 06:09 PM
  #681
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Hopefully Sherman's reaction is as follows:



Match the offer, and buy some time to see if O'Reilly continues to improve. A first and a third are not enough for him.


Last edited by KOOLAIDMAN: 02-28-2013 at 06:16 PM.
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02-28-2013, 06:10 PM
  #682
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Dont forget. It's not a sure thing that Ryan will become a 1st line center. He might be. He may have hit his cealing. We can't be SURE. Even though I think he will become great.

As much as a gamble it is to NOT match it, it's big gamble to match it too... It will lead to a lot of our own player wanting the same money. And Ryan would have to become a stud..

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02-28-2013, 06:11 PM
  #683
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Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
Offering a word of support for you guys. Sucks to lose a quality player (if you match), but I dont see Calgary as a good team at all. I think theres a very real chance this pick ends up top 5, if not in the realm of Drouin, Jones, Mackinnon.
I am not sure why hfboards seem to think Calgary will be that bad. They almost made the playoffs last year and look better under Hartley IMO.

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02-28-2013, 06:11 PM
  #684
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great, the flames don't even have any RFAs worth poaching as this would put them in cap hell

hopefully we sign, we have the cap space for 2 years.


Last edited by falconski: 02-28-2013 at 06:13 PM. Reason: didn't see how the contract was structured
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Old
02-28-2013, 06:11 PM
  #685
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
I just want to highlight this to everyone.

If the Avs match, he is not going to a rival club in this conference or our division for this year. If the Avs match they can claim their hands were forced on his contract.

If the Avs don't match try get an underwhelming return.

However, if we do match what do our options become?

We can sign him to a regular contract extension. We can go to club elected salary arbitration (only thing I'm hazy on is if the qualifying offer is a minimum during arbitration, I believe it is not). We can also let him walk from arbitration, let another team sign him for 5.3+ mil OR retain him for 5.299 or less if someone signs him to such a contract. Lastly we can also sign him at any point to any contract we deem if he elects to sign for less than his qualifying offer.

Downsides? If we do elect for arbitration, we deny arbitration and we've qualified his contract, then he is eligible to accept the QO and become a UFA the following season.

Other options? If we does not play 60 games next year we can make his QO a two way deal. I can't imagine him risking being sent down for 875k if no team takes him on at 6.5mil during a waiver transaction.
Wanted to repost this, cause it makes sense to me. anyone else have thoughts on this?

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02-28-2013, 06:12 PM
  #686
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Originally Posted by RobinDIF View Post
Dont forget. It's not a sure thing that Ryan will become a 1st line center. He might be. He may have hit his cealing. We can't be SURE. Even though I think he will become great.

As much as a gamble it is to NOT match it, it's big gamble to match it too... It will lead to a lot of our own player wanting the same money. And Ryan would have to become a stud..
definitely a predicament

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02-28-2013, 06:12 PM
  #687
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Originally Posted by RobinDIF View Post
If Ryan gets 6.5M... Duchene would want at least the same, Landeskog too, Varlamov too... It wouldn't be going somewhere good.
I don't think so, Duchene especially wouldn't look at it like that.

Those guys would have to realize that it was an offer sheet signed by ROR that lead to this, and that the Avs hands were tied. I don't think it would effect those guys and there wants at all.

It would however mean ROR is overpaid by 1.5-2.5M next year, and that cap space could be important come 3 years from now.

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02-28-2013, 06:12 PM
  #688
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Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
I think Flames have the potential to be a bottom 5 team.
When was the last time did they draft in the top 10? With ror I would be willibg to bet the dont finish in the botton 10. Kessel was comming off a 60 point season fyi. At the end of the day who do you guys want stastny or oreilly?

Actually its more like do you want Stastny, domi (as an example) and a 3rd or O'reilly +?

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02-28-2013, 06:12 PM
  #689
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No doubt it would be a mistake to match this offer. $6.5 million is just too much for him. He is worth a first and a third, and I fully expect that first round pick to become a better player than O'Reilly.

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02-28-2013, 06:12 PM
  #690
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Originally Posted by shadow1 View Post
That's a generous assessment. They have 18 points in 18 games, and are 3 points behind 8th seeded San Jose, who have also played 18 games. They're 3-3-1 in their last seven and are a single point ahead of the Avalanche in the standings - in the same amount of games played.
They have the head to head games which they'll win. And adding a skilled two way playmaking centre who is great at puck retrieval will help them immensely. Even if they aren't miles ahead of the Avs, they can easily finish in the 6-8th in the West and the Avs end up with a low pick.

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02-28-2013, 06:13 PM
  #691
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So we have beuts on the main board

He chose Calgary over us so he could be there 1st line center.

So he's too good to take the 3.5 Duchene got, but he's not good enough to beat Duchene for number one center duties. yeah

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02-28-2013, 06:13 PM
  #692
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Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
Very true, but for people like me and RS who watch the prospects this draft is good.
People say that every draft. And a few years later those studs turn out to be Rafi Torres, Jack Skille and Michael Frolik.

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02-28-2013, 06:14 PM
  #693
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Originally Posted by RobinDIF View Post
If Ryan gets 6.5M... Duchene would want at least the same, Landeskog too, Varlamov too... It wouldn't be going somewhere good.
Good point , i forgot about Varly , All i had in mind were Duchene and Landeskog

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02-28-2013, 06:15 PM
  #694
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
People say that every draft. And a few years later those studs turn out to be Rafi Torres, Jack Skille and Michael Frolik.
Very very true unfortunately

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02-28-2013, 06:15 PM
  #695
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Originally Posted by Frenchy View Post
Good point , i forgot about Varly , All i had in mind were Duchene and Landeskog
Yeah, it wouldn't just be "1.0-1.5M too much for one player, big deal" it would certainly make a mark on future negotiations.

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02-28-2013, 06:15 PM
  #696
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I think it's important to think about the trade value - not just the draft value - of the picks we'll acquire.

Drafting another 18 year old defenseman is not what this team needs to take the next step. Flipping them for an established left handed 22-28 year old defenseman is exactly what we should do.

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02-28-2013, 06:16 PM
  #697
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Flames screwed Colorado, great move by them, they need him bad, i wouldnt mind seeing him go, but to calgary, just screams Drury, im sure others have said, wow, this is huge. but money wise avs can do this.

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02-28-2013, 06:16 PM
  #698
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
People say that every draft. And a few years later those studs turn out to be Rafi Torres, Jack Skille and Michael Frolik.
Yeah... Established player > potential high pick with potential high talent.

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02-28-2013, 06:17 PM
  #699
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Disappointed that Sherman didn't work the phones a little more and a get a decent package for ROR. Think a deal probably could've been worked out with someone from the East.

A top 10 pick and a 3rd would be okay if the Flames actually finish that low, but when has our luck ever been that good? Knowing how things go for us, ROR will get there and click with Iginla, Kipper will turn up his game, and the flames will go on a run that might get them in at 8 or 7, which would make us beyond screwed in the deal.

This whole thing just blows...

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02-28-2013, 06:17 PM
  #700
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People were talking about ROR+ for a guy like Hamilton. Or adding a prospect to get a prospect in Trouba and a decent winger in Little. This is a decent enough return if the pick is top 10.

We could seriously make out really well in this trade. Players us fans wanted/ were offered:

Alzner-5th overall
Trouba-8th overall
Hamilton-9th overall
Cowen-9th overall
Meyers-11th overall
Staal-12th overall
Kulikov-14th overall
Gardiner-17th overall
Del Zotto-20th overall

O'Reilly would almost go straight up for most of these guys. This is right in the range Calgary will most likely finish.

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