Posters on HF wildly overrate picks between 6th-15th. You have a 10% chance to get a player as good or better than O'Reilly, deep draft (most overused term on HF) or not.
6 through 10:
here it starts to get dicey
20 of 46 forwards didn't pan out (.465)
9 of 18 dmen didn't pan out (.500)
all 6 goalies did not pan out
overall, selecting in this zone over the 1994-07 time frame meant batting .500
11 through 15:
24 of 46 forwards selected didn't pan out (.522)
7 of 18 dmen selected didn't pan out (.389)
3 of 6 goalies selected didn't pan out (.500)
34 of 70 picks in this range over that time didn't pan out (.486)
#15 overall pick was particularly a death sentence spot, as only 2 weren't complete misses and one of those two was Radulov.
I agree and so does the statistics behind the draft. This is the probability we get at least a top six/top four player. Basically less than 50% we get a David Jones even.
Offering a word of support for you guys. Sucks to lose a quality player (if you match), but I dont see Calgary as a good team at all. I think theres a very real chance this pick ends up top 5, if not in the realm of Drouin, Jones, Mackinnon.
I am not sure why hfboards seem to think Calgary will be that bad. They almost made the playoffs last year and look better under Hartley IMO.
If the Avs match, he is not going to a rival club in this conference or our division for this year. If the Avs match they can claim their hands were forced on his contract.
If the Avs don't match try get an underwhelming return.
However, if we do match what do our options become?
We can sign him to a regular contract extension. We can go to club elected salary arbitration (only thing I'm hazy on is if the qualifying offer is a minimum during arbitration, I believe it is not). We can also let him walk from arbitration, let another team sign him for 5.3+ mil OR retain him for 5.299 or less if someone signs him to such a contract. Lastly we can also sign him at any point to any contract we deem if he elects to sign for less than his qualifying offer.
Downsides? If we do elect for arbitration, we deny arbitration and we've qualified his contract, then he is eligible to accept the QO and become a UFA the following season.
Other options? If we does not play 60 games next year we can make his QO a two way deal. I can't imagine him risking being sent down for 875k if no team takes him on at 6.5mil during a waiver transaction.
Wanted to repost this, cause it makes sense to me. anyone else have thoughts on this?
I think Flames have the potential to be a bottom 5 team.
When was the last time did they draft in the top 10? With ror I would be willibg to bet the dont finish in the botton 10. Kessel was comming off a 60 point season fyi. At the end of the day who do you guys want stastny or oreilly?
Actually its more like do you want Stastny, domi (as an example) and a 3rd or O'reilly +?
No doubt it would be a mistake to match this offer. $6.5 million is just too much for him. He is worth a first and a third, and I fully expect that first round pick to become a better player than O'Reilly.
That's a generous assessment. They have 18 points in 18 games, and are 3 points behind 8th seeded San Jose, who have also played 18 games. They're 3-3-1 in their last seven and are a single point ahead of the Avalanche in the standings - in the same amount of games played.
They have the head to head games which they'll win. And adding a skilled two way playmaking centre who is great at puck retrieval will help them immensely. Even if they aren't miles ahead of the Avs, they can easily finish in the 6-8th in the West and the Avs end up with a low pick.
Flames screwed Colorado, great move by them, they need him bad, i wouldnt mind seeing him go, but to calgary, just screams Drury, im sure others have said, wow, this is huge. but money wise avs can do this.
Disappointed that Sherman didn't work the phones a little more and a get a decent package for ROR. Think a deal probably could've been worked out with someone from the East.
A top 10 pick and a 3rd would be okay if the Flames actually finish that low, but when has our luck ever been that good? Knowing how things go for us, ROR will get there and click with Iginla, Kipper will turn up his game, and the flames will go on a run that might get them in at 8 or 7, which would make us beyond screwed in the deal.