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Bossy vs. Makarov

View Poll Results: ?
Bossy 40 46.51%
Makarov 37 43.02%
Too close to call 9 10.47%
Voters: 86. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-04-2013, 10:57 PM
  #76
redbull
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Whether or not he would/could be as productive as Bossy, I don't know, but I wouldn't hesitate to call Makarov the "better" player "in a vacuum", AINEC.

And btw, you forgot to account for the fact that forwards under Tikhonov got ~15 mins per game of ice time - whether a 1st liner or 4th liner. In the NHL, other players of similar calibre were playing 25+ mins per game. How does that affect the prorating, if we go by actual time spent on the ice as opposed to number of games played, I wonder?
I would love to see some evidence of this.

In Canada Cups, Bossy never saw big minutes or 1st PP time, playing behind Gretzky. Arbour also rolled four lines on Long Island, never ran up the score either.

From memory, that KLM line, that played together all the time, used to play huge minutes and often as a 5man unit with Fetisov and Kasatonov. Certainly more than 15min/night.

But again, I'd like to see some proof.

People are also under the impression that 99 played a lot. But it just looked that way because he was always around the puck. I would guess he was a 21-22 min player in his 200pt seasons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jag68Sid87 View Post
Highly debatable, which is what this poll is all about. Makarov was amazing, but he's not way better than Peter Stastny. There's the grit factor, leadership qualities...Peter Stastny brought A LOT to the rink every night.

Bossy vs. Makarov is pretty close. The thing is, there MAY be 1-2 guys who could score goals like Bossy in the history of hockey. So I lean towards him.

Besides, Bossy's defense and playmaking was highly underrated.
B.Sutter and Tonelli did score 100pts the one season they played with Bossy - a Bernie Nicholls type increase for both of them. Maybe it was just luck though.

Arbour wouldn't play anyone unless they were responsible defensively. There is more than enough documented evidence of this if anyone cares to google that.

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03-05-2013, 12:53 AM
  #77
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Just because of the whole larionov not a great playmaker bs. When they were with san jose at least makarov was deff not as good with out larionov.

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03-05-2013, 05:35 AM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redbull View Post
I would love to see some evidence of this.

In Canada Cups, Bossy never saw big minutes or 1st PP time, playing behind Gretzky. Arbour also rolled four lines on Long Island, never ran up the score either.

From memory, that KLM line, that played together all the time, used to play huge minutes and often as a 5man unit with Fetisov and Kasatonov. Certainly more than 15min/night.

But again, I'd like to see some proof.

People are also under the impression that 99 played a lot. But it just looked that way because he was always around the puck. I would guess he was a 21-22 min player in his 200pt seasons.
The proof is that I've heard Larionov say, on TV, that Tikhonov rolled lines almost religiously (I'm paraphrasing there with the religiously part). Watching the replays of all the old games (Canada Cups, Olympics, etc) leaves that impression as well. I've also heard Wayne's coaches and teammates, on TV, talk about him playing 30+ minutes per game. Sorry, I have nothing for you in the way of statistics, and neither does the internet at this time. People around here have tried to estimate based on production, but those estimates fall short of the impression you get actually watching his games in the 80s and even up to early 90s with LA. Basically though, if his coaches and teammates say he was doing it, I'm not going to wait for the internet availability of the statistics to believe it. I, too, would like to see proof, though.

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03-05-2013, 04:15 PM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
The proof is that I've heard Larionov say, on TV, that Tikhonov rolled lines almost religiously (I'm paraphrasing there with the religiously part). Watching the replays of all the old games (Canada Cups, Olympics, etc) leaves that impression as well. I've also heard Wayne's coaches and teammates, on TV, talk about him playing 30+ minutes per game. Sorry, I have nothing for you in the way of statistics, and neither does the internet at this time. People around here have tried to estimate based on production, but those estimates fall short of the impression you get actually watching his games in the 80s and even up to early 90s with LA. Basically though, if his coaches and teammates say he was doing it, I'm not going to wait for the internet availability of the statistics to believe it. I, too, would like to see proof, though.
Just like with Orr, people saying he was playing 30 (40) minutes some games and the estimates based on goals for and against can both be correct; I am sure Gretzky played 30 sometimes, but he also played a lot less than that sometimes (20-21 is way low).

The thing you have to remember when downplaying the validity of these ice time estimates is that while his ice time is a variable, his actual situational gf/ga do not change, meaning by claiming he played much more than the estimates say, you're claiming that goals for and against occurred with much lower frequency per minute when he was on the ice, and that is of course not the least bit reasonable. There is a little bit of wiggle room in the estimates, but not to the degree you are suggesting (or the "Orr player 40 minutes every game" crowd).

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03-05-2013, 06:23 PM
  #80
Ohashi_Jouzu
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Just like with Orr, people saying he was playing 30 (40) minutes some games and the estimates based on goals for and against can both be correct; I am sure Gretzky played 30 sometimes, but he also played a lot less than that sometimes (20-21 is way low).

The thing you have to remember when downplaying the validity of these ice time estimates is that while his ice time is a variable, his actual situational gf/ga do not change, meaning by claiming he played much more than the estimates say, you're claiming that goals for and against occurred with much lower frequency per minute when he was on the ice, and that is of course not the least bit reasonable. There is a little bit of wiggle room in the estimates, but not to the degree you are suggesting (or the "Orr player 40 minutes every game" crowd).
Actually, it's completely reasonable. I'm willing to bet that Wayne played 30 mins (if not more) in just about every close game that the Oilers played, and I suppose also games where the score wasn't necessarily close but in the opponents' favour. And if they had more close games with scores like 3-2 or 4-2 than they did, say, 8-7 or 7-5, then, assuming the same amount of ice time (and close games), the result is lower points generated in games where he plays the most minutes. Of course, he probably didn't rack up minutes in 3rd periods of games that were out of reach, so maybe there are enough of those games to make me believe that Wayne's average might have been far enough below 30 mins/night to make me stop considering that a more than reasonable estimate during the years that we're all talking about.

As a follow up, is there a link I can peruse which shows that, for years in which we have non-estimated icetime, that reality actually follows this trend for a significant percentage of all players? I can appreciate that the Bobby Orr example fits the model, but without a pattern it just seems like cherry picking. I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to find a whole slew of players that fit the model as well, but I'd like to see the list of those found not following the trend along the way, as well.

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03-05-2013, 11:37 PM
  #81
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You misunderstand me. I'm saying that for Gretzky to be a 30 minute player, the oilers would have had fewer goals for and against per minute when he was on the ice, compared to other players (mactavish, Messier, Hunter, etc). Which makes no sense. It's obviously not reasonable, so you had to have misunderstood my previous post.

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03-05-2013, 11:38 PM
  #82
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Which model are you referring to?

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03-05-2013, 11:45 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by redbull View Post
B.Sutter and Tonelli did score 100pts the one season they played with Bossy - a Bernie Nicholls type increase for both of them. Maybe it was just luck though.
I'm amazed at how often I have to say this.

Nicholls did not play on the same line as Gretzky. They played together on the power play, but so do Malkin/Crosby. As did Forsberg/Sakic.

Nicholls played on the second line at even strength, and finished fourth in the league in even strength points in 88-89. He had a stellar season that year, and would have done so even without Gretzky.

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03-05-2013, 11:48 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
I'm amazed at how often I have to say this.

Nicholls did not play on the same line as Gretzky. They played together on the power play, but so do Malkin/Crosby. As did Forsberg/Sakic.

Nicholls played on the second line at even strength, and finished fourth in the league in even strength points in 88-89. He had a stellar season that year, and would have done so even without Gretzky.
Do you know how many of Nicholls '150' points were assisted by gretzky? That's the only way of determining whether his season was legitimate or cotail riding.

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03-06-2013, 12:03 AM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
The proof is that I've heard Larionov say, on TV, that Tikhonov rolled lines almost religiously (I'm paraphrasing there with the religiously part). Watching the replays of all the old games (Canada Cups, Olympics, etc) leaves that impression as well. I've also heard Wayne's coaches and teammates, on TV, talk about him playing 30+ minutes per game. Sorry, I have nothing for you in the way of statistics, and neither does the internet at this time. People around here have tried to estimate based on production, but those estimates fall short of the impression you get actually watching his games in the 80s and even up to early 90s with LA. Basically though, if his coaches and teammates say he was doing it, I'm not going to wait for the internet availability of the statistics to believe it. I, too, would like to see proof, though.
The part about Tikhonov is correct.

From The Canada Cup of Hockey Fact and Stat Book by H.J. Anderson:

Quote:
The series also proved a battle of styles between the two coaches. Team Canada Coach Mike Keenan mixed and matched his lines, partly due to injuries to Claude Lemieux, Kevin Dineen, and Rick Tocchet, while Soviet coach Viktor Tikhonov monotonously ran his four lines unless injuries forced him to do otherwise. From Game 2 Canada matched the line of Mark Messier, Mike Gartner, and Glenn Anderson linked with defensemen Rochefort and Crossman against the Soviets' main threat, the KLM line, to attempt to shut them down, while Tikhonov never matched lines, which would ultimately cost his team on Canada's series winning goal.
Quote:
...With one minute thirty-six seconds left, there was a face-off in the Canadian end. As Gretzky looked up on the Soviet blueline instead of 29 year old captain Vyacheslav Fetisov, who had covered him the entire series, for some unexplained reason was 21 year old Igor Kravchuck. Dale Hawerchuk won the draw from Valeri Kamensky and tied up the Soviet forward, while Lemieux got the puck and just pushed it ahead to Gretzky, breaking across centre ice. With Lemieux and Murphy trailing, Gretzky faced Kravchuk, not the veteran Fetisov. Gretzky waited and then sent a perfect pass back to Lemieux, who sent all of Canada into a frenzy with just 1:26 remaining
...
It was a lead Canada wasn't going to give up, especially with Tikhonov sticking to his system of rolling four lines. After the deciding goal, Tikhonov responded with his fourth line, rather than the dangerous Krutov-Larionov-Makarov line, which only hit the ice with forty-eight seconds remaining...

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03-06-2013, 12:35 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by ushvinder View Post
Do you know how many of Nicholls '150' points were assisted by gretzky? That's the only way of determining whether his season was legitimate or cotail riding.
I don't have the exact numbers and neither NHL.com nor hockey-reference has the scoring logs available for who assisted on what, but from what IS available I can tell that it was a maximum of 46 goals assisted on by Gretzky. Nicholls scored 21 PPG, and 28 PPA, for a total of 49 points on the PP. It's likely Gretzky assisted on around 30 of Nicholls' goals (mostly PP), and Nicholls assisted on Gretzky goals or co-assisted with Gretzky for close to 40-45. His PP scoring inflation over the previous season (8-22-30 in 65) was approximately 110% for goals and almost 0% for assists. This increase (11 goals on a full season) can be directly attributed to Gretzky. Shorthanded, his per-game production arguably declined (7-0-7 in 65 to 8-6-14 in 79). At even strength, he went from 17-24-41 in 65 to 41-46-87 in 79. He also was playing with Luc Robitaille, which he did not do in previous seasons (Robitaille lined up next to Carson the previous season). It's highly likely Gretzky made an impact indirectly through his presence by taking the primary defenders, but Nicholls was by no means "inflated" in the same manner Sutter and Tonelli were. Brett Hull and Cam Neely are better examples of that kind of statistical inflation.

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03-06-2013, 04:00 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
You misunderstand me. I'm saying that for Gretzky to be a 30 minute player, the oilers would have had fewer goals for and against per minute when he was on the ice, compared to other players (mactavish, Messier, Hunter, etc). Which makes no sense. It's obviously not reasonable, so you had to have misunderstood my previous post.
You know what, I'm not even hung up on whether or not the average technically is above 30 mins/night. That he played that much very regularly, for years, is "good enough for me". And by that, I mean it reconciles with what I've watched (can't claim to have seen every game, so can't claim that the average necessarily has to be 30+). Or, perhaps, the lingering cumulative impression from what I've watched would be more accurate.

But yeah, I guess I still don't understand how relative proportions of points extrapolates into ice time estimates, let alone with any degree of reliability.

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03-06-2013, 06:37 AM
  #88
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03-06-2013, 03:49 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by ushvinder View Post
Do you know how many of Nicholls '150' points were assisted by gretzky? That's the only way of determining whether his season was legitimate or cotail riding.
For 225 points with Nicholls on the Gretzky Kings, Nicholls and Gretzky got points together on 41 Nicholls goals, 20 Gretzky goals and an unknown number with common assists.

Prorating allows us to estimate Gretzky helped on around 27 goals and scored on 14 assists. There were likely more cases with goals where both assisted, but we can't be sure. If we ignore those "X (Nicholls, Gretzky)" goals it's at least 27% and likely over 30% (45 points) if Wayne and Bernie had common assists on at least 4 goals.

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