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Russian Draft Picks in the late 90's/early 00's and disappointment

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03-01-2013, 03:46 PM
  #1
Habsfan18
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Russian Draft Picks in the late 90's/early 00's and disappointment

I've been a prospect/draft junkie since 2000 (been following hockey since I was born, but it was this year where I REALLY started paying attention the the draft process and prospects), and I remember there were TONS of Russian prospects during those years, most with a very high skill level and what appeared to be great potential as NHL players. I remember Russia having success at the WJC's and many players were picked high in the drafts, and many sat atop their respective clubs prospects lists for a few years.

Let's look back at some of the following players, drafted from 1999 through 2004, and all drafted fairly high:

Konstantin Koltsov
Kirill Safronov
Mikhail Kuleshov
Alexander Buturlin
Ruslan Zainullin
Nikita Alexeev
Mikhail Yakubov
Pavel Vorobiev
Alexei Smirnov
Artem Kryukov
Alexei Mikhnov
Ilja Nikulin
Alexander Tatarinov
Alexander Suglobov
Alex Svitov
Stanislav Chistov
Igor Knyazev
Alexander Perezhogin
Timofei Shishkanov
Andrei Taratukhin
Alexander Polushin
Andrei Medvedev
Igor Grigorenko
Fedor Fedorov
Evgeny Artukhin
Yuri Trubachev
Denis Grebeshkov
Anton Babchuk
Kirill Koltsov
Alexei Kaigarodov
Alexei Shkotov
Anton Kadeykin
Sergei Anshakov
Vladislav Evseev
Konstantin Glazachev
Konstantin Pushkarev
Dmitri Chernykh
Igor Mirnov
Dmitry Kosmachev
Ivan Khomutov
Roman Voloshenko
Kirill Lyamin

Now obviously, there are different reasons for each of them not having NHL success (a few, such as Grebeshkov and Babchuk, have enjoyed some success, but not quite as much as expected) but looking at Russia as a whole over those years, makes me wonder...what the hell happened?

I especially look at players like Svitov, Chistov, Polushin, Taratukhin, Alexeev, Yakubov, Vorobiev etc... these players had so much skill. Grigorenko looked like a star, but to be fair he was in a pretty serious car crash. I remember my friends and I just thinking there was going to be a great wave of highly skilled Russian players about to enter the NHL.

I'm not picking on Russia or anything like that, just wondering if we could get some insight as to what happened with the majority of these prospects over the years. Were they just simply not as skilled as they were originally thought to be? In many cases, was it a lack of drive/passion for the North American game that made them stay in Russia?

As you can see, those were some pretty damn good Russian prospect classes during those years - which obviously didn't work out in the long run. But they were very exciting prospects.

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Last edited by Habsfan18: 03-02-2013 at 12:00 PM.
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03-01-2013, 07:46 PM
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LeBlondeDemon10
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This looks like Mike Smith's contact list on his blackberry.

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03-02-2013, 02:47 AM
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alko
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LeBlondeDemon10 View Post
This looks like Mike Smith's contact list on his blackberry.
i dont get it...

but anyway. Habsfan18, please put here the list of drafted Russians, who made it. to compare.

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03-02-2013, 04:23 AM
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At the first glance it looks horrible. But that list includes many players that made it and were not that bad. Sure... no new Bure or Fedorov, but decent/good NHLers.

I say several things happened:

1. Russian hockey league started to rise again in the early 2000s. As the result some never came over. Many players never returned to North America after the lockout. So to make some good money it's wasn't necessary to go to NA anymore.

2. Many prospects were drafted by the organizations, who were horrible at drafting/developing NHL talent. Columbus, Chicago come to mind.

3. Those players were playing youth hockey in the 90s. Russia in the 90s was a mess and youth hockey even worse than that. So it's likely that those players had many holes in their game.

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03-02-2013, 11:48 AM
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Habsfan18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alko View Post
but anyway. Habsfan18, please put here the list of drafted Russians, who made it. to compare.
Well, like I stated, a few of the players I listed previously, such as Grebeshkov, Babchuk, Perezhogin, Semenov, Artyukhin etc.. did make it, but definitely didn't live up to expectations.

Using the same years for players I didn't list previously, I guess you could say the following players "made it" and in most cases, lived up to expectations.

Oleg Saprykin
Alexander Khavanov
Alexander Frolov
Anton Volchenkov
Ilya Bryzgalov
Ilya Kovalchuk
Fedor Tyutin
Nikolai Zherdev
Alex Ovechkin
Evgeni Malkin
Alexander Radulov

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03-03-2013, 03:49 AM
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alko
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habsfan18 View Post
Well, like I stated, a few of the players I listed previously, such as Grebeshkov, Babchuk, Perezhogin, Semenov, Artyukhin etc.. did make it, but definitely didn't live up to expectations.

Using the same years for players I didn't list previously, I guess you could say the following players "made it" and in most cases, lived up to expectations.

Oleg Saprykin
Alexander Khavanov
Alexander Frolov
Anton Volchenkov
Ilya Bryzgalov
Ilya Kovalchuk
Fedor Tyutin
Nikolai Zherdev
Alex Ovechkin
Evgeni Malkin
Alexander Radulov
yeah , that is a diference. But. How im sure, some list we can make also for Canadian players and USA.

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03-03-2013, 09:15 AM
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This is a useless exercise (beyond something like lazerbullet's post above which did a good job of supplying qualitative hypotheses) without any sort of control data. Here's a quick experiment one could perform (not saying this is even close to the best setup either):

The null hypothesis is: H_0 : p = p_0

Where p is the proportion of Russian players that "bust" or "fail to reach expectations" (so of course one has to make these choices) and p_0 is the proportion of all drafted players (or all players up to a certain round, or whatever).

The alternative hypothesis is: H_0 : p > p_0

i.e. that Russian players are more likely to bust/fail meet expectations than players as a whole.

There are almost certainly enough players (sample size = n) in this sample so that np and n(1-p) are both at least 5, which means the normal distribution can be used to approximate this. Compute the standard error, run a one-tailed hypothesis test, and see if it's statistically significant.

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03-03-2013, 09:21 AM
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Trevor3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Epsilon View Post
This is a useless exercise (beyond something like lazerbullet's post above which did a good job of supplying qualitative hypotheses) without any sort of control data. Here's a quick experiment one could perform (not saying this is even close to the best setup either):

The null hypothesis is: H_0 : p = p_0

Where p is the proportion of Russian players that "bust" or "fail to reach expectations" (so of course one has to make these choices) and p_0 is the proportion of all drafted players (or all players up to a certain round, or whatever).

The alternative hypothesis is: H_0 : p > p_0

i.e. that Russian players are more likely to bust/fail meet expectations than players as a whole.

There are almost certainly enough players (sample size = n) in this sample so that np and n(1-p) are both at least 5, which means the normal distribution can be used to approximate this. Compute the standard error, run a one-tailed hypothesis test, and see if it's statistically significant.
You do that, I'll see if I can't get this square peg through the round hole.

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03-03-2013, 09:29 AM
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Epsilon
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Originally Posted by Trevor3 View Post
You do that, I'll see if I can't get this square peg through the round hole.
What I suggested would take almost no time at all (with a decent calculator like a Ti-84, it's basically a freshman college stats problem), other than actually deciding which players are busts and which are not.

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