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Old
03-14-2013, 01:51 PM
  #226
truck
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
Aside from the last game of course. They seemed to produce quite well without him.
One game is not a trend and there is absolutely zero to suggest they wouldn't have been better with him in place of Olli or Mittens.

*shrug*

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03-14-2013, 01:51 PM
  #227
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If you're Corsi-lover, maybe. Can you break down the Corsi for the last 5 or 6 games?

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03-14-2013, 01:52 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Yes and some games the opposite happened... but on average...
We aren't so much concerned with the past and past results but rather with the present and the future. The most recent data suggests the team as it is currently constructed performed quite well in his absence.

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03-14-2013, 01:54 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by Wings View Post
If you're Corsi-lover, maybe. Can you break down the Corsi for the last 5 or 6 games?
I like goals also. Only one Jet has been minus with Bumi and he has been out injured for a while.

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03-14-2013, 01:55 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
We aren't so much concerned with the past and past results but rather with the present and the future. The most recent data suggests they were just fine without him.
In engineering, my prof once said that "one measurement is no measurement"

It could be a total fluke, but there is no way to know. One game with him in the rafters, we played well. That's one data point. Totally meaningless when evaluating his worth.

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03-14-2013, 01:58 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
We aren't so much concerned with the past and past results but rather with the present and the future. The most recent data suggests the team as it is currently constructed performed quite well in his absence.
The most recent data also suggests Edmonton doesn't allow goals against and the CBJ are an awesome team.

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03-14-2013, 01:58 PM
  #232
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Why so much focus on backward-looking data to spin a story here on this board? Stats guys are great at using backward data to tell us what we already know happened in the past... but I've yet to see any advanced hockey statisticians use that data to accurately model future results.

Meh.

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03-14-2013, 02:00 PM
  #233
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That is because hockey is a game of widely variable occurrences, is one not easily modeled.

Again, meh.

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03-14-2013, 02:01 PM
  #234
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
Why so much focus on backward-looking data to spin a story here on this board? Stats guys are great at using backward data to tell us what we already know happened in the past... but I've yet to see any advanced hockey statisticians use that data to accurately model future results.

Meh.
The predictive measures suggest the team is better with Burmi than without.

Also, looking at long run results isn't spin, over emphasizing a single data point because it fits a pre-determined narrative is.

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03-14-2013, 02:02 PM
  #235
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
Why so much focus on backward-looking data to spin a story here on this board? Stats guys are great at using backward data to tell us what we already know happened in the past... but I've yet to see any advanced hockey statisticians use that data to accurately model future results.

Meh.
Like the Minnesota collaps last year? Or the Kings turnaround last year? Both of which ALL hockey statisticians predicted?

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03-14-2013, 02:02 PM
  #236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
Why so much focus on backward-looking data to spin a story here on this board? Stats guys are great at using backward data to tell us what we already know happened in the past... but I've yet to see any advanced hockey statisticians use that data to accurately model future results.

Meh.
I'll refer you to the Leafs @ Jets Pre-game talk

Regression!

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03-14-2013, 02:04 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
That is because hockey is a game of widely variable occurrences, is one not easily modeled.

Again, meh.
Wildly variable in short run, but not that hard to model over a long run.

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03-14-2013, 02:04 PM
  #238
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
We aren't so much concerned with the past and past results but rather with the present and the future. The most recent data suggests the team as it is currently constructed performed quite well in his absence.
Well then you should have kept my whole quote because the comment on how Toronto is a weak team that tends to get out played even when their goalie wins it for them would have been relevant.

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03-14-2013, 02:05 PM
  #239
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
The predictive measures suggest the team is better with Burmi than without.

Also, looking at long run results isn't spin, over emphasizing a single data point because it fits a pre-determined narrative is.
Jets are winning with Enstrom out of the line up, are we a better team without him?

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03-14-2013, 02:06 PM
  #240
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Well then you should have kept my whole quote because the comment on how Toronto is a weak team that tends to get out played even when their goalie wins it for them would have been relevant.
Anyone with a functioning set of eyeballs could see that Toronto often gets outplayed, simply by paying attention and watching the games.

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03-14-2013, 02:06 PM
  #241
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Originally Posted by sipowicz View Post
Jets are winning with Enstrom out of the line up, are we a better team without him?
The goaltending and PK have been better. Team play has largely been the same or worse.

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03-14-2013, 02:08 PM
  #242
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
The goaltending and PK have been better. Team play has largely been the same or worse.
... but our PP slowed down (until the last game I'd say) and the production from our D overall dropped hugely. We were first in the league and dropped to 6 AFAIK since Enström is out.

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03-14-2013, 02:08 PM
  #243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
Why so much focus on backward-looking data to spin a story here on this board? Stats guys are great at using backward data to tell us what we already know happened in the past... but I've yet to see any advanced hockey statisticians use that data to accurately model future results.

Meh.
Really? Looks like there is a tonne of spin on BOTH sides.

You know, if you wanted to look at it objectively.

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03-14-2013, 02:09 PM
  #244
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
That is because hockey is a game of widely variable occurrences, is one not easily modeled.

Again, meh.
You should give another look...

While the future will never be precisely predicted, probabilities can be estimated. Also, the point is we were discussing the past anyways. The truth is that on average Burmistrov has played better than all of our middle 6 players other than Kane. If that isn't important, ok.

Even the NHL is getting more interested. The number of NHL executives going to things like the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics has gone up extremely (especially because a few years ago it was only Gillis from Van) and guys are getting hired/picked-up by the dozen to many teams.

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03-14-2013, 02:10 PM
  #245
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
Anyone with a functioning set of eyeballs could see that Toronto often gets outplayed, simply by paying attention and watching the games.
WTF???
Yes??? I know that. What does that have to do with anything I said? LOL

You know I watch the games to right?

EDIT:
My point was you can pick the last game without Burmistrov because it was a win and the players played well. I said it doesn't exactly definitively prove anything because everyone knows Toronto is a weaker team that gets regularly out played by everyone and anyone? How does your response actually respond to what I was saying.

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03-14-2013, 02:14 PM
  #246
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Originally Posted by sipowicz View Post
Jets are winning with Enstrom out of the line up, are we a better team without him?
Jets won a lot with Flood last season... but he wasn't worth the minimum to any team in the NHL.
meh

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03-14-2013, 02:20 PM
  #247
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
Except 16 Jets perform better and produce faster with Burmi than without him.
I guess we must assume because this is true at 21, he's likely to lose this ability and regress by the team he truly establishes what sort of player he is.


edit: whooaa didn't realise i was looking at an old version of the thread- playing catchup now.


Last edited by Grind: 03-14-2013 at 02:25 PM.
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Old
03-14-2013, 02:21 PM
  #248
Gump Hasek
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
WTF???
Yes??? I know that. What does that have to do with anything I said? LOL

You know I watch the games to right?

EDIT:
My point was you can pick the last game without Burmistrov because it was a win and the players played well. I said it doesn't exactly definitively prove anything because everyone knows Toronto is a weaker team that gets regularly out played by everyone and anyone? How does your response actually respond to what I was saying.
My point is that you often spin what is essentially bad and backward-looking data to explain your own personally biased viewpoint to what happened in the past. Hockey is a game of widely variable and random occurrences. The data you use isn't collected in a lab and subject to any sort of a rigid set of guidelines or within any specific parameters, it is essentially all subjective in nature, eyeball stuff. It is junk science.

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03-14-2013, 02:24 PM
  #249
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Originally Posted by sipowicz View Post
Both Antro and Wellwood can do things Burmi can't, in Burmi's defence I see no reason to play Mittens over Burmi.
Would have to agree with this! I like Burmi but he is frustrating to watch, the guy has great puck skills hits hard, good on the back check and PK, but when he has the puck it is like he is on an outdoor rink with a bunch of kids trying to play keep away.
Wish he would do something with the puck instead of all the dangling.

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03-14-2013, 02:28 PM
  #250
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Originally Posted by Gump Hasek View Post
My point is that you often spin what is essentially bad and backward-looking data to explain your own personally biased viewpoint to what happened in the past. Hockey is a game of widely variable and random occurrences. The data you use isn't collected in a lab and subject to any sort of a rigid set of guidelines or within any specific parameters, it is essentially all subjective in nature, eyeball stuff. It is junk science.
to drop a quote some others have used against us when talking about what is and isn't within the hockey world "tell that to the GM's" the ones who are en mass spending more and more money on this Junk Science...

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