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Draft Lottery and Entry Draft changes

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Old
03-04-2013, 08:06 PM
  #1
Mightygoose
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Draft Lottery and Entry Draft changes

Though the change of the draft lottery was mentioned when the CBA was reached, the official announcement is made by the league.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=417390

All 14 teams now participate. Not a big fan of the draft on a Sunday but I guess it's a better TV slot.

As of now the Oilers have a 8.1% chance of landing the #1 pick overall....and who says dynasties are dead

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Old
03-04-2013, 08:58 PM
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DatsyukToZetterberg
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They also do all 7 rounds in 1 day, I guess the 30th will be a day I book off a little while in advance.

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03-04-2013, 09:44 PM
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Nice to see it all on one day.

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Old
03-05-2013, 08:43 AM
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Flukeshot
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I know that Play Downs are pretty hokey and usually only for relegation leagues, but I'd really rather see another way for draft picks to be earned instead of lottery. Play Downs would be a good way to finalize top to bottom rankings and draft picks. Winning in the Play Downs would give you a higher pick. Could provide a minimal source of revenue as well. It'd be easy enough to come up with a structure that ensured teams didn't slip down the draft order too much.

Otherwise, I'd prefer a lottery where each pick for non-playoff teams is lotteried. Once the first overall pick is won, reshuffle the odds and do it again for 2nd to 14th.

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03-05-2013, 09:05 AM
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tony d
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Sunday's going to be a different day to hold the draft. Also not a fan of all 14 non-playoff teams all having a chance at #1. It should have stayed the old way of the worst overall team being the only team that could get the #1 pick.

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Old
03-05-2013, 09:19 AM
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patnyrnyg
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If anything I would like to see them do a full lottery. All 14 teams not in the play-offs are eligible and they are chosen for picks 1-14. I'd even be in favor of weighting it so the teams that finished 9th in their conference have the best chance. Reward teams for going for the play-offs all the way until the end.

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03-05-2013, 10:00 AM
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cheswick
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Odds of getting 1st overall. (Last season 30th had a 48.1% chance)

25.0% - 30th
18.8% - 29th
14.2% - 28th
10.7% - 27th
8.1% - 26th
6.2% - 25th
4.7% - 24th
3.6% - 23rd
2.7% - 22nd
2.1% - 21st
1.5% - 20th
1.1% - 19th
0.8% - 18th
0.5% - 17th

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Old
03-05-2013, 10:13 AM
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cbcwpg
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^^^^^

Sure gonna be fun watching the reaction on the faces of the worst team in the league when they lose the 1st overall pick because of a lottery.

So going back... who's idea was it to come up with the lottery? Was the NHL really concerned about teams deliberately losing to get this pick?

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03-05-2013, 10:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbcwpg View Post
^^^^^

Sure gonna be fun watching the reaction on the faces of the worst team in the league when they lose the 1st overall pick because of a lottery.

So going back... who's idea was it to come up with the lottery? Was the NHL really concerned about teams deliberately losing to get this pick?
Absolutely, I believe it was the Nordiques 89-91 picking 1st in each draft that really sparked the debate.

EDIT: I knew there had to be an old article on the subject...

http://articles.philly.com/1990-04-0...idea-nhl-draft


Last edited by Flukeshot: 03-05-2013 at 10:34 AM.
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Old
03-05-2013, 11:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cheswick View Post
Odds of getting 1st overall. (Last season 30th had a 48.1% chance)

25.0% - 30th
18.8% - 29th
14.2% - 28th
10.7% - 27th
8.1% - 26th
6.2% - 25th
4.7% - 24th
3.6% - 23rd
2.7% - 22nd
2.1% - 21st
1.5% - 20th
1.1% - 19th
0.8% - 18th
0.5% - 17th
That's awesome. Im so happy that they went through with this. Too bad they didnt implement it a year or two earlier if you know what I mean haha.

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Old
03-05-2013, 11:25 AM
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If I'm correct, the overall odds of winning the lottery are exactly the same as before for 1-14 but previously a team could only move up 4 spots, which is why 30th's odds of winning 1st pick were their 25% + the odds of 6th-14th combined.

I still don't understand why only first is determined by lottery. Is the 1st pick overall really worth that much more than the 2nd every year?

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03-05-2013, 11:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flukeshot View Post
If I'm correct, the overall odds of winning the lottery are exactly the same as before for 1-14 but previously a team could only move up 4 spots, which is why 30th's odds of winning 1st pick were their 25% + the odds of 6th-14th combined.

I still don't understand why only first is determined by lottery. Is the 1st pick overall really worth that much more than the 2nd every year?
Not including the last 2 drafts because its too early to say which pick is going to end up being better.

Of the 48 other drafts the NHL has held,...

IMO the 2nd pick has been better than the 1st in 11 years with 4 debatable years. The debatable years are:

1971 - Dionne vs. Lafleur
1987 - Turgeon vs. Shanahan
2004 - Ovechkin vs. Malkin
2010 - Hall vs. Seguin

So even if you include these 4 years for a total of 15 times the 2nd pick has been better than the 1st, that's 31% of the time. 69% of the time it has been better to have the 1st pick. If you still say the 1st pick was better in those 4 years... then the 2nd pick IMO has only been better than the 1st in 23% of the time.

Of course with drafts it's a guess and even with 1st, you still might end up picking the wrong guy. As well, some years there is a clear can't miss.

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03-05-2013, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by cbcwpg View Post
Not including the last 2 drafts because its too early to say which pick is going to end up being better.

Of the 48 other drafts the NHL has held,...

IMO the 2nd pick has been better than the 1st in 11 years with 4 debatable years. The debatable years are:

1971 - Dionne vs. Lafleur
1987 - Turgeon vs. Shanahan
2004 - Ovechkin vs. Malkin
2010 - Hall vs. Seguin

So even if you include these 4 years for a total of 15 times the 2nd pick has been better than the 1st, that's 31% of the time. 69% of the time it has been better to have the 1st pick. If you still say the 1st pick was better in those 4 years... then the 2nd pick IMO has only been better than the 1st in 23% of the time.

Of course with drafts it's a guess and even with 1st, you still might end up picking the wrong guy. As well, some years there is a clear can't miss.
I think that this is the key point. In those rare years where there is a "generational" talent, there is too much incentive to "tank". The prospect of snagging a Lemieux or Crosby or Lindros is just too tempting for a low-level team.

This year, I can see some strong incentives for a team to try to end up with a pick in the top 5 or 6. The current lottery system doesn't do much to discourage tanking for a top-5.

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03-05-2013, 02:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flukeshot View Post
I know that Play Downs are pretty hokey and usually only for relegation leagues, but I'd really rather see another way for draft picks to be earned instead of lottery. Play Downs would be a good way to finalize top to bottom rankings and draft picks. Winning in the Play Downs would give you a higher pick. Could provide a minimal source of revenue as well. It'd be easy enough to come up with a structure that ensured teams didn't slip down the draft order too much.

Otherwise, I'd prefer a lottery where each pick for non-playoff teams is lotteried. Once the first overall pick is won, reshuffle the odds and do it again for 2nd to 14th.
It would be fun for the fans but when you stop and think about it why would the players give a damn about playing for a better draft pick? Oh sure they'd probably play to get the next Sydney Crosby on their team, or maybe even a Tavares or Stamkos... but after that you really think they'll care if their effort means they get to draft Griffin Reinhart instead of Matthew Dumba?

If they're not in the playoffs I'm pretty sure they'd rather be golfing.

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03-05-2013, 02:31 PM
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Absolutely agree. There would need to be an incentive or meaning greater than just the higher draft pick. Or moreso, if a team traded their first round pick, there is no incentive, unless the standings carried through all rounds.

There are many bush league hokey ideas that would be interesting on paper but impractical otherwise. I kind of like the idea of getting all non-playoff teams together in one arena to have a best of seven shoot outs to determine playdown rankings or draft pick orders. Teams could win the right to move up X amount of spots in the draft. Perhaps 5 in the 1st rd, 10 in the second, 15 in 3rd etc. It would make for a decent TV event.

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03-05-2013, 02:47 PM
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This is better but I dont think it goes far enough. All the draft lottery system really does now is insure that the best players in the draft go to the worst managed organizations. Quite often the top end of the draft does nothing to make a team better. The same teams seem to hog all the best players and develop them poorly. This is not fair to the rest of the league or the players.

I think every pick in the top 14 should be drawn - not just 1st overall - and I think there should be a limit to how many times a team can draft 1st overall over a period of time.

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03-05-2013, 02:56 PM
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This is better but I dont think it goes far enough. All the draft lottery system really does now is insure that the best players in the draft go to the worst managed organizations. Quite often the top end of the draft does nothing to make a team better. The same teams seem to hog all the best players and develop them poorly. This is not fair to the rest of the league or the players.

I think every pick in the top 14 should be drawn - not just 1st overall - and I think there should be a limit to how many times a team can draft 1st overall over a period of time.
Now that we are in the age of the salary cap, I wonder how this is going to play out for a team like Edmonton. You can have all the high draft picks you want, but eventually you are going to have to open your wallet and try to keep them, and can you keep them all? I doubt it. So even though Edmonton has had the 1st pick in the last 3 years, I feel there is a good chance that one or two of these players could end up spending the majority of their career somewhere else.

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03-06-2013, 11:12 PM
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I wont be happy till the entire draft is decided by lotto and not just the top spot

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03-07-2013, 06:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flukeshot View Post
Absolutely, I believe it was the Nordiques 89-91 picking 1st in each draft that really sparked the debate.

EDIT: I knew there had to be an old article on the subject...

http://articles.philly.com/1990-04-0...idea-nhl-draft
Before that many believed (and still do) Pens tanked to get Mario.

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03-07-2013, 10:52 AM
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I wouldn't limit the number of first overall picks. But I do support the idea of having a lottery for all of the top 14 spots. Use the weighting they have, but you draw for each position. Still gives the worst team the best chance at number one, but creates a more exciting event for tv and prevents tanking.

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03-07-2013, 11:45 AM
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tanking is a myth, that is all

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Old
03-07-2013, 12:56 PM
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So, if someoen wins the lottery - they get 1st overall and everyone else just moves up 1?

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03-07-2013, 02:33 PM
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So all 7 rounds will be conducted in one day? Guessing it will take place on Saturday then?

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03-07-2013, 03:36 PM
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So all 7 rounds will be conducted in one day? Guessing it will take place on Saturday then?
One would hope. It'll be interesting to see how they plan to conduct a 210-pick draft on one day.

Say the first round takes an average of 5 minutes per pick, that's 2 1/2 hours, which is reasonable for broadcast purposes. Now you have 180 picks left. To get the whole draft in under 12 hours, you'd have to average only 3 minutes per pick from rounds 2-7. That seems pretty intense.

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03-07-2013, 04:29 PM
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One would hope. It'll be interesting to see how they plan to conduct a 210-pick draft on one day.

Say the first round takes an average of 5 minutes per pick, that's 2 1/2 hours, which is reasonable for broadcast purposes. Now you have 180 picks left. To get the whole draft in under 12 hours, you'd have to average only 3 minutes per pick from rounds 2-7. That seems pretty intense.

rounds 2 through 7 usually last only a few hours as they literally call from the table their pick... it runs about 30 seconds per pick

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