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Old
03-13-2013, 11:16 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by MacOfNiagara View Post
Just don't see a 7th pick. The have been awful just about out of the gate all the way to half way through the season. Dumped Ruff and have still only won 1 in regulation since then. Florida and Columbus are as bad as Buffalo. Everyone else in the division is IMO simply a better team than the Sabres. Only 23 games left. Top 3 pick looks very likely.
We could maybe even win the lottery!

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03-14-2013, 12:11 AM
  #77
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Did someone say.....




"BLOW IT UP"?

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Old
03-14-2013, 01:44 AM
  #78
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Only players that I'd keep:
- Miller
- Sekera
- Hodgson
- Ehrhoff
- Vanek (maybe)

Blow it up!

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Old
03-14-2013, 04:26 AM
  #79
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Things that have made me mad

AFte rthe first couple game this year, we had this so called new identity where we weren't going to take any crap, but against philly they shoveled it to us almost as fast as we we eating it, those hits WOULD have been at least looked at by the league if:
1) the hit was made by a sabre
2) the sabres showed any kind of dissapointment or anger.
3) the coach would have at least MENTIONED the damn hit that injured Ennis that was so cheap

HOW ARE THEY NOT MAD, all Rolston said after the game was "we didn't do the little things we needed to do, and unfortunately that was our fourth loss in a row, but I think we are improving still and reguarding the slump, "thats going to happen"....like it was supposed to be part of the season......WHY ROLSTON? WHY is that "Gonna happen"....why is it a given that once we start doing well, it's such a given that we are going to fall on our faces, like that it was it supposed to happen? He wasnt mad about the hit, the teams play.....NOTHING. And our beloved captain only spoke about how we improved 5 on 5 and complimented his team on the 5 on 5 effort.

WHAT ARE THESE GUYS doing.....COACH CAN'T COACH, CAPTAIN CAN'T MOTIVATE, gm CAN'T GET GOOD players, and all of them lie through their teeth

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03-14-2013, 06:42 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by sand1138man View Post
those hits WOULD have been at least looked at by the league if:
1) the hit was made by a sabre
Nonsense.

That's one homerism that drives me nuts.

Those hits ARE looked at by the league. All because they aren't suspending to your liking doesn't mean they're being unfair. There will always be inconsistencies, but this woe-is-my-team victimhood BS is tiring.

Refs aren't out to get the Sabres, nor is the league. Do I really need to say that?

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Old
03-14-2013, 06:55 AM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Squantosawuss View Post
Nonsense.

That's one homerism that drives me nuts.

Those hits ARE looked at by the league. All because they aren't suspending to your liking doesn't mean they're being unfair. There will always be inconsistencies, but this woe-is-my-team victimhood BS is tiring.

Refs aren't out to get the Sabres, nor is the league. Do I really need to say that?
Sadly it appears so. However I salute you.


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Old
03-14-2013, 12:06 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by camcool21 View Post
Only players that I'd keep:
- Miller
- Sekera
- Hodgson
- Ehrhoff
- Vanek (maybe)

Blow it up!
If you're going to blow it up I don't think you keep a 32 year old goalie, you get what you can for him.

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Old
03-14-2013, 01:24 PM
  #83
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At this point, they should listen to offers for anyone other than Hodgson, Sekera, Ehrhoff, and Grigorenko.

They really need this to be the year they finish in the bottom three so that they can acquire a franchise player. Deal who you can, stockpile assets, build for the future. And more importantly -- let a new GM do the tearing down.

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03-15-2013, 03:19 AM
  #84
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I'm a Sens fan, but I love/hate the Sabres. =) I really hope Buffalo doesn't 'blow it up', but does a quick retool with a 1-3 year window. You guys have some seriously good players and some that could flush out a very nice draft. Whatever the Sabres do, I hope they keep Miller. Elite level keepers are hard to find - even when they have off years.

Buffalo could easily become the Montreal Canadiens of this year,... next year. I hope they do, Buffalo has a great fan base that deserves it.

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03-15-2013, 04:44 AM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Savannah Skunk View Post
I'm a Sens fan, but I love/hate the Sabres. =) . Whatever the Sabres do, I hope they keep Miller. Elite level keepers are hard to find - even when they have off years.
.
Nice to know Miller is still viewed as elite by other fans, some here tend to forget.

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Old
03-15-2013, 05:29 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Savannah Skunk View Post
I'm a Sens fan, but I love/hate the Sabres. =) I really hope Buffalo doesn't 'blow it up', but does a quick retool with a 1-3 year window. You guys have some seriously good players and some that could flush out a very nice draft. Whatever the Sabres do, I hope they keep Miller. Elite level keepers are hard to find - even when they have off years.

Buffalo could easily become the Montreal Canadiens of this year,... next year. I hope they do, Buffalo has a great fan base that deserves it.
Thank you for this post. Very much appreciated.

I also think a re-tool is the way to go rather than a complete obliteration.

We need to be able to put Pom on the 2nd line RW, so we need a 70-80 point offensive RW. We also need a bona fide 2 way C or LW (depending on Ennis being able to handle 2nd line C duties) capable of about 50-60 points for the 2nd line. I think we have the bottom 2 lines covered with Ott, Kaleta, Porter, Cody/Scott, Grig (until he deserves promotion), Flynn, Foligno

Meh I can dream.

EDIT: Has anyone noticed Hecht is a +5? Rolston really is using him right because last I looked he was in the minus. Subtle, but impressive on this team. Maybe it's worth keeing him as a 4th line Defensive specialist.


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Old
03-15-2013, 06:53 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by RazielMoshman View Post
Thank you for this post. Very much appreciated.

I also think a re-tool is the way to go rather than a complete obliteration.

We need to be able to put Pom on the 2nd line RW, so we need a 70-80 point offensive RW. We also need a bona fide 2 way C or LW (depending on Ennis being able to handle 2nd line C duties) capable of about 50-60 points for the 2nd line. I think we have the bottom 2 lines covered with Ott, Kaleta, Porter, Cody/Scott, Grig (until he deserves promotion), Flynn, Foligno

Meh I can dream.
There's a few problems here, though.

11 wingers scored 70 points last year and 3 scored 80.
They are rare, so saying we need one is much easier than actually obtaining one.

95 forwards scored 50 and 57 scored 60.
Without even narrowing it down to C or LW, it's rare, so to speak (three per team).
Adding two-way to the mix if you want narrows it down even more.

I also assume you are also counting on Vanek to still be able to produce like an elite forward and Pominville to still produce at a high level while waiting on top prospects to be able to contribute, but the peak age of NHL forwards statistically is anywhere between 24 to 26.
Even if you're generous and say 28-30, both will be beyond that.
The average age of the beginning of sustained production is 22, so that likely puts both Pominville and Vanek in their mid 30's when any prospects are able to contribute notable amounts.
Additionally, goalies statistically fall off a cliff after age 34.
Miller turns 33 this summer.

Also, you're completely ignoring the fact that the defense is in shambles and lacks a #1 defenseman right now, which is basically a requirement of a Cup winner.
Good luck obtaining one of these through free agency or developing one quickly enough to fit the window.
The only hope is that Myers somehow finds his game and becomes one, which I doubt.

Overall, I feel like it's a bigger risk to count on the chips falling exactly right to win with this group than it is to accept that the timing just isn't going to happen and retooling.

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Old
03-15-2013, 07:11 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
There's a few problems here, though.

11 wingers scored 70 points last year and 3 scored 80.
They are rare, so saying we need one is much easier than actually obtaining one.

95 forwards scored 50 and 57 scored 60.
Without even narrowing it down to C or LW, it's rare, so to speak (three per team).
Adding two-way to the mix if you want narrows it down even more.

I also assume you are also counting on Vanek to still be able to produce like an elite forward and Pominville to still produce at a high level while waiting on top prospects to be able to contribute, but the peak age of NHL forwards statistically is anywhere between 24 to 26.
Even if you're generous and say 28-30, both will be beyond that.
The average age of the beginning of sustained production is 22, so that likely puts both Pominville and Vanek in their mid 30's when any prospects are able to contribute notable amounts.
Additionally, goalies statistically fall off a cliff after age 34.
Miller turns 33 this summer.

Also, you're completely ignoring the fact that the defense is in shambles and lacks a #1 defenseman right now, which is basically a requirement of a Cup winner.
Good luck obtaining one of these through free agency or developing one quickly enough to fit the window.
The only hope is that Myers somehow finds his game and becomes one, which I doubt.

Overall, I feel like it's a bigger risk to count on the chips falling exactly right to win with this group than it is to accept that the timing just isn't going to happen and retooling.
If we know what we need we can find a way of getting it, I'm not touching goalies as Buffalo's history with goaltenders has meant the fans are the worst in the NHL at judging needs, requirements and expectations of them.

The defense is a mess, but I believe in Myers, Sekera, Ehrhoff and McNabb. The rest can be filled in via trade or free agency.

Our biggest problem is still Darcy Regier imho. Until the front office, coaching and management change we will not go anywhere, rebuild or no rebuild.

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03-15-2013, 07:16 AM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RazielMoshman View Post
If we know what we need we can find a way of getting it, I'm not touching goalies as Buffalo's history with goaltenders has meant the fans are the worst in the NHL at judging needs, requirements and expectations of them.
The defense is a mess, but I believe in Myers, Sekera, Ehrhoff and McNabb. The rest can be filled in via trade or free agency.

Our biggest problem is still Darcy Regier imho. Until the front office, coaching and management change we will not go anywhere, rebuild or no rebuild.
Ain't that the truth. preach on, brother.

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03-15-2013, 07:51 AM
  #90
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Originally Posted by RazielMoshman View Post
If we know what we need we can find a way of getting it,
I don't get it.

Knowing what you need does not magically enable you to obtain them.
If you draft players, it takes time, which doesn't fit in our window.
If you sign out of free agency, they are statistically almost guaranteed to disappoint and are past their prime.
If you trade for one, you pay a lot and likely end up overpaying, which is solving a problem while creating another.

Quote:
I'm not touching goalies as Buffalo's history with goaltenders has meant the fans are the worst in the NHL at judging needs, requirements and expectations of them.
This doesn't change the fact that Miller looks to have already had his peak at the expected age (29/30, which fits perfectly with the expected curve) and may be experiencing an uptick in play this season despite stats before declining rapidly at 34, just like the curve.

Here is said curve:


and the corresponding study.
Note that 1 on the y-axis indicates average.

I guess that you can bank on him beating the odds, but I'm not going to, especially with the poor odds of everything else falling into place perfectly.

Quote:
The defense is a mess, but I believe in Myers, Sekera, Ehrhoff and McNabb. The rest can be filled in via trade or free agency.
Only two of those players are probably currently top four blueliners on a serious contender and it still lacks a #1.
I do not think Myers will be a #1 ever, but even if he is, I think it'd take a miracle for him to put it together in a reasonable amount of time for this group.

Quote:
Our biggest problem is still Darcy Regier imho. Until the front office, coaching and management change we will not go anywhere, rebuild or no rebuild.
Agreed.
It's also what caused this mismatch of windows that looks like it will cause a painful rebuild due to failing to correctly stock the pipeline for years (largely missing/ignoring the center and goalie position for years).

We're trying to piece together a contender with a goalie and two top line forwards (could add Ehrhoff in as a fringe top pairing defenseman) that were born in the first half of the 1980's that have already reached their peaks and top six forwards and a risky defenseman that have high-end potential that we've lacked for some time that were born in the first half of the 1990's that are not quite at their peaks (and half of them aren't even ready to contribute in the NHL), which creates a mismatch.
Patch one hole and another one starts to leak.

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Old
03-15-2013, 09:47 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Mogilny 89 View Post
I could see myself trading just about every single player for a fair deal except Pominville. He's a solid ass hockey player. Class act, big games in playoffs long past, still one of the most consistant players in the league. You want him around young players IMO.
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Originally Posted by ZZamboni View Post
And I think Pominville is part of a weak leadership core that can be moved and bring in a better leader. I like Pominville, I do, but not as captain.
Came here to post my sentiment that, if the Sabres feel they will draft Nate MacKinnon over any other prospect, were he available to them whatever pick they have (or, if they intend to package their #1 ++ to move up to pick MacKinnon,) then BUF may be wise to hold on to Pommiville until next trade deadline in order to give Nate a mature, stable, family guy to model (even live with, a la Lemieux/Crosby).

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Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
I don't get it.

Knowing what you need does not magically enable you to obtain them. Agree
If you draft players, it takes time, which doesn't fit in our window. Agree, unfortunately
If you sign out of free agency, they are statistically almost guaranteed to disappoint and are past their prime. Absolutely agree. I always favor youth, given the choice.
If you trade for one, you pay a lot and likely end up overpaying, which is solving a problem while creating another. Agree

This doesn't change the fact that Miller looks to have already had his peak at the expected age (29/30, which fits perfectly with the expected curve) and may be experiencing an uptick in play this season despite stats before declining rapidly at 34, just like the curve.

Here is said curve:


and the corresponding study.
Note that 1 on the y-axis indicates average.

I guess that you can bank on him beating the odds, but I'm not going to, especially with the poor odds of everything else falling into place perfectly.
My responses in bold above, and in normal reply below.

Ok, here is where we disagree (and I hold your knowledge in high esteem). That's a good analysis, and I appreciate statistics, and the author's attempt to normalize the data to enable a larger timeframe meta-analysis, etc. However, for individual goalies there are huge annual residuals as compared to their individual polynomial fits. Where's the promised part IV of the article, where current goalies performance was to be projected? I assume Miller would have been in that projection. Also, how do we know Miller (or any goalie) would not have a curve more like Brodeurs vs. Hasek/Roy? (I'm not necessarily a Miller apologist, as I think he'll wish to move as UFA for opportunity to win Cup elsewhere.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfb
Only two of those players are probably currently top four blueliners on a serious contender and it still lacks a #1.
I do not think Myers will be a #1 ever, but even if he is, I think it'd take a miracle for him to put it together in a reasonable amount of time for this group.

Agreed.
It's also what caused this mismatch of windows that looks like it will cause a painful rebuild due to failing to correctly stock the pipeline for years (largely missing/ignoring the center and goalie position for years).

We're trying to piece together a contender with a goalie and two top line forwards (could add Ehrhoff in as a fringe top pairing defenseman) that were born in the first half of the 1980's that have already reached their peaks and top six forwards and a risky defenseman that have high-end potential that we've lacked for some time that were born in the first half of the 1990's that are not quite at their peaks (and half of them aren't even ready to contribute in the NHL), which creates a mismatch.
Patch one hole and another one starts to leak.
Agree no easy solution here.

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03-15-2013, 10:34 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by RazielMoshman View Post
If we know what we need we can find a way of getting it, I'm not touching goalies as Buffalo's history with goaltenders has meant the fans are the worst in the NHL at judging needs, requirements and expectations of them.

The defense is a mess, but I believe in Myers, Sekera, Ehrhoff and McNabb. The rest can be filled in via trade or free agency.

Our biggest problem is still Darcy Regier imho. Until the front office, coaching and management change we will not go anywhere, rebuild or no rebuild.


it's so easy... we just need to figure out how to "know what we need"... and then we just go get it. duh

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03-15-2013, 10:42 AM
  #93
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it's so easy... we just need to figure out how to "know what we need"... and then we just go get it. duh
When you are on about 80 point forwards it's really not that easy. But as long as there is someone in the front office who's not going to massively overvalue everyone and be afraid of making a mistake quite a lot is possible. One team having Richards, Nash and Gaborik and staying below the cap for instance. Or getting a 1st line centre (Briere) for a 4th line chump (Gratton)

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03-15-2013, 10:45 AM
  #94
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Cut the fat, re-sign Miller & break the bank for Corey Perry.

Vanek-Hodgson-Perry
Defensive-minded LW-Grigorenko-Pominville
Foligno-Ott-Flynn
Kaleta and whoever else on the fourth line.

Myers-Ehrhoff
Sekera-Weber
McNabb-Sulzer
Pardy
Stay-at-home bottom 4 d-man

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03-15-2013, 11:00 AM
  #95
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Ok, here is where we disagree (and I hold your knowledge in high esteem). That's a good analysis, and I appreciate statistics, and the author's attempt to normalize the data to enable a larger timeframe meta-analysis, etc. However, for individual goalies there are huge annual residuals as compared to their individual polynomial fits. Where's the promised part IV of the article, where current goalies performance was to be projected? I assume Miller would have been in that projection.
Unfortunately, I can't seem to find it either.
Honestly, I knew of peak age for skaters, but goalies are a different story and I had to go searching for it and found that.

Quote:
Also, how do we know Miller (or any goalie) would not have a curve more like Brodeurs vs. Hasek/Roy? (I'm not necessarily a Miller apologist, as I think he'll wish to move as UFA for opportunity to win Cup elsewhere.)
Well, there's no way of knowing for sure, but the build I envision just doesn't benefit from keeping him.
I may suck at poker, but I think this is when you have to realize the odds are against you and fold 'em.

If they go short-term, things have to go pretty much perfectly to have a shot at contending and even if it's super short-term and you ignore the chance of decline, there's always the chance he's gone in 1.5 years.
If they go long-term, the same things apply but they're pushing their luck even more.
If they're looking for a Montréal type rebuild, it's a huge mistake due to differences in the situation (they redefined cancerous environment last year, lost so many players to injury including their captain and best defenseman, and they have younger pieces that are old enough to produce at notable levels and still young enough to build around for years like a top line winger in Pacioretty, a stating goaltender in Price, and a top pairing defenseman in Subban) and the fact that the Habs are riding the percentages right now, making things look incredibly rosy.

There are some things that I don't like about Miller, but I respect what he's done here and realize he's an above-average goalie.
He's whiny at times and gets on my nerves, but he's a competitor. He deserves the chance to win, and I think he has to go elsewhere for that if he's going to be the guy and not just riding the pine.
Even if we don't want him to, he may because of his desire to win.
It's probably better for us too, as sometimes you have to bottom out to get better (if he move him, it forces us to find a solution, rather than using him as a crutch and saying we will).
It'll be hard, but that's what we set ourselves up for unfortunately.

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03-15-2013, 11:08 AM
  #96
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Cut the fat, re-sign Miller & break the bank for Corey Perry.

Vanek-Hodgson-Perry
Defensive-minded LW-Grigorenko-Pominville
Foligno-Ott-Flynn
Kaleta and whoever else on the fourth line.

Myers-Ehrhoff
Sekera-Weber
McNabb-Sulzer
Pardy
Stay-at-home bottom 4 d-man
That D gets us beat more often than not unless we score 5 goals a game and what happened to Ennis?

But sign Perry but I imagine that ends like Parise, Richards etc

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03-15-2013, 11:14 AM
  #97
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That D gets us beat more often than not unless we score 5 goals a game and what happened to Ennis?

But sign Perry but I imagine that ends like Parise, Richards etc
He was killed in a freak gasoline fight accident.

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03-15-2013, 11:16 AM
  #98
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Originally Posted by RazielMoshman View Post
When you are on about 80 point forwards it's really not that easy. But as long as there is someone in the front office who's not going to massively overvalue everyone and be afraid of making a mistake quite a lot is possible. One team having Richards, Nash and Gaborik and staying below the cap for instance. Or getting a 1st line centre (Briere) for a 4th line chump (Gratton)

I don't even know what to make of this word salad

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03-15-2013, 11:18 AM
  #99
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Originally Posted by Karate Johnson View Post
That D gets us beat more often than not unless we score 5 goals a game and what happened to Ennis?

But sign Perry but I imagine that ends like Parise, Richards etc
Yea I thought about that :/ I was on the fence w/ him really: if we move him, it's for that defensive LW or if we keep him, put him on the line w/ Ott & Foligno, would give us a third line w/ energy and some scoring ability.

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03-15-2013, 11:21 AM
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He was killed in a freak gasoline fight accident.
LOL

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