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Habs are on pace for a 118 pts season (full 82 games)

View Poll Results: How good would the habs be over a full season ?
80-90 pts 1 1.59%
90-100 pts 21 33.33%
100-110 pts 38 60.32%
over 110 pts 3 4.76%
Voters: 63. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-10-2013, 09:47 AM
  #1
Intense
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Habs are on pace for a 118 pts season (full 82 games)

Do you think they are that good ?

Don't get me wrong, I sure think they are a very good team, just not 118 pts season good.

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Old
03-10-2013, 09:49 AM
  #2
99GoHabsGo99
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i think in an 82 game season they would get around 102 this year

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Old
03-10-2013, 10:10 AM
  #3
Intense
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Originally Posted by 99GoHabsGo99 View Post
i think in an 82 game season they would get around 102 this year
That would represent a 24 pts increase, which is great but I think it's far from the all-time record.

Speaking of which, does anyone know if a team ever went from last to first in consecutive seasons ? Would be great to be the first team to do it.

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Old
03-10-2013, 10:49 AM
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yoteshot
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We would be facing the West too, so I'd say the pace would come down a bit, somewhere along the lines of 105 pts.

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Old
03-10-2013, 11:13 AM
  #5
Erik Estrada
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118 is a ridiculous amount of points. I don't think they would have held up that pace.

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Old
03-10-2013, 11:17 AM
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Lafleurs Guy
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Playing the West would've made a pretty big difference. 100 point team is probably around where we'd be. Which is actually pretty shocking to me as I thought at best we'd be an 8th place team and more likely finish out of the playoffs.

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Old
03-10-2013, 11:17 AM
  #7
Whitesnake
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Which is why the "on pace" stats never made any sense.

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Old
03-10-2013, 11:29 AM
  #8
Ozymandias
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Habs magic number is at 37.

Considering they have 46 possible points that they can get (in 23 games left), they're almost a lock for the playoffs already. They've had 36 points in 25 games, and the magic number is 37 with 23 games left.

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Old
03-10-2013, 11:35 AM
  #9
sharks9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Intense View Post
That would represent a 24 pts increase, which is great but I think it's far from the all-time record.

Speaking of which, does anyone know if a team ever went from last to first in consecutive seasons ? Would be great to be the first team to do it.
I think I remember hearing there was a team back in the 30's that did it, I don't think anyone has done it in the modern era.

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Old
03-10-2013, 01:21 PM
  #10
VL55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Habs magic number is at 37.

Considering they have 46 possible points that they can get (in 23 games left), they're almost a lock for the playoffs already. They've had 36 points in 25 games, and the magic number is 37 with 23 games left.
That's an even higher pace than what we have maintained so far (36 in 25 game = 0.720, 37 in 23 = 0.804)

Magic number to do what? Win the conference?

To reach the playoffs we probably need only to reach 54 (prorata of 92 points in a 82 seasons game, though teams have made the playoffs with as little as 88 since the other lockout).

So in that regard our magic number is about 18 in 23 games.

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Old
03-10-2013, 01:40 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VL55 View Post
That's an even higher pace than what we have maintained so far (36 in 25 game = 0.720, 37 in 23 = 0.804)

Magic number to do what? Win the conference?

To reach the playoffs we probably need only to reach 54 (prorata of 92 points in a 82 seasons game, though teams have made the playoffs with as little as 88 since the other lockout).

So in that regard our magic number is about 18 in 23 games.
Magic numbers don't only count points for when we win , but also the points the teams chasing us lose. So if we win and another team trying to get into the play-offs loses, our magic number theoretically goes down 4 points.

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Old
03-10-2013, 01:47 PM
  #12
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99 points.

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Old
03-10-2013, 02:05 PM
  #13
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104-106 points... still a playoff team but we'd then hope to get a #4-5 seed.

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Old
03-10-2013, 02:07 PM
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severe case of over performing here.

We're not strong enough for a serious playoff run. Missing a few key elements and I know I'll get hated on but I'm still not convinced by price's 'tending.

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Old
03-10-2013, 02:08 PM
  #15
Le Tricolore
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We're not the Leafs. Let's stop talking about prorating seasons.

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Old
03-10-2013, 02:11 PM
  #16
VL55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss View Post
Magic numbers don't only count points for when we win , but also the points the teams chasing us lose. So if we win and another team trying to get into the play-offs loses, our magic number theoretically goes down 4 points.
Hell no. That would only be true if the conference was composed of exactly two team!

But there are 7 teams out of playoffs spots and 8 who are in. They can't all lose or win at the same time; they have to play each other.

The bottom line is that every complete season, 92 points at the most will get you in the playoffs.

This year, I expect the cutoff to be at 54 at the most (pro rata of 92), it could be as low as 52 or 51 (considering that the top 3 teams are doing so well and have taken so many points from the weaker teams).

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03-10-2013, 02:22 PM
  #17
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I think we're a good regular season team but I don't see us going far in the playoffs unfortunately.

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03-10-2013, 02:22 PM
  #18
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Originally Posted by Le Tricolore View Post
We're not the Leafs. Let's stop talking about prorating seasons.
Yeah, Bruins are on pace for 131 points. Not likely.

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Old
03-10-2013, 02:36 PM
  #19
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I think we're a good regular season team but I don't see us going far in the playoffs unfortunately.
I expect to finish 4th behind Boston and that we will play Toronto or Ottawa in the first round. There's no reason why we couldn't win round 1. Round 2 would likely be Pittsburgh, so that would be extremely difficult. Then we'd have to play Boston and Chicago if we ever get there. I think we're probably only one elite winger (such as Perry) from being a Stanley Cup contender.

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Old
03-10-2013, 02:37 PM
  #20
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Originally Posted by Serious HABit View Post
severe case of over performing here.

We're not strong enough for a serious playoff run. Missing a few key elements and I know I'll get hated on but I'm still not convinced by price's 'tending.
Well if Price gets hot the team will certainly keep up the pace and be dangerous in the playoffs.

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03-10-2013, 02:41 PM
  #21
Watsatheo
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I'd say 95-100 is a good range. Team shows more than enough flaws to see they aren't a president trophy challenge.

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03-10-2013, 02:42 PM
  #22
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I expect to finish 4th behind Boston and that we will play Toronto or Ottawa in the first round. There's no reason why we couldn't win round 1. Round 2 would likely be Pittsburgh, so that would be extremely difficult. Then we'd have to play Boston and Chicago if we ever get there. I think we're probably only one elite winger (such as Perry) from being a Stanley Cup contender.
The country would explode if that happened. Like, I'm actually worried about the consequence.

Agreed with the others in saying that I see the Habs hovering around 100pts in a regular season, and even that seems optimistic. I think years of meltdowns have just led to me expecting one. I'll just remain pleasantly surprised.

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03-10-2013, 02:48 PM
  #23
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Well if Price gets hot the team will certainly keep up the pace and be dangerous in the playoffs.
the same can be said for any team. if the sens keep up their pace and anderson comes back at the end...look out, they'll be tough to beat.

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03-10-2013, 02:59 PM
  #24
Intense
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Originally Posted by McNuts View Post
I expect to finish 4th behind Boston and that we will play Toronto or Ottawa in the first round. There's no reason why we couldn't win round 1. Round 2 would likely be Pittsburgh, so that would be extremely difficult. Then we'd have to play Boston and Chicago if we ever get there. I think we're probably only one elite winger (such as Perry) from being a Stanley Cup contender.

That would be awesome... unless we lose to the Leafs

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Old
03-10-2013, 03:14 PM
  #25
Ozymandias
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Hell no. That would only be true if the conference was composed of exactly two team!

But there are 7 teams out of playoffs spots and 8 who are in. They can't all lose or win at the same time; they have to play each other.

The bottom line is that every complete season, 92 points at the most will get you in the playoffs.

This year, I expect the cutoff to be at 54 at the most (pro rata of 92), it could be as low as 52 or 51 (considering that the top 3 teams are doing so well and have taken so many points from the weaker teams).
You don't understand what the magic number is. It's the maximum number of points the 9th place team can have till the end of the season vs the team's (the one you're calculating the magic number for) total points.

It's calculated to know when a team is mathematically guaranteed a playoff spot.

The team who is in 9th place usually has a lead. If that 9th place team loses in regulation, Habs magic number goes down by two, unless the team trailing the 9th place was behind by one point, then the magic number goes down by one.

Ok, so right now, 9th and 10th are both at 25 points. The Jets have 24 remaining, this means a possible of 48 total points they can get + their 25 points already garnered, this makes 73, minus the 36 the Habs have, Habs magic number vs the Jets is 37 points. 9th place team are the Isles, but they have 23 games remaining, with 46 points they can possibly get, and the 25 points they already have, Habs magic number vs the Isles is 35 points.

So let's say the Isles play tonight and win, the Jets lose and the Habs win, Habs magic number is still gonna fall by 4, to 33. Because then the Isles will have 22 games left, 44 possible points, with 27 points already in bank, that makes 71 minus Habs 38 points... magic number at 33!

It's not ONE team you have to look at, but the team who is at the 9th place on the day you calculate it. If the team is tied (same point total, same number of games left), then all those teams have to lose for the magic number to go down.


I forgot the mandatory +1 for the tie breaker, so the Habs magic number is actually 38.


What is impressive is that those 38 points in 23 games left is close to what they already had, 36 in 25, but they don't NEED to get 38 points, other teams are gonna bring that number down. That's why I say they're almost a lock already.

and yes, if we prorate the 92 points to 54 points on a 48 games schedule, Habs would need between 16 and 20 points in their last 23 to make the playoffs.


Last edited by Ozymandias: 03-10-2013 at 03:48 PM.
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