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Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation (12-13 Part XII)

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Old
03-25-2013, 06:45 PM
  #576
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Just to add to that last post Holden, I think our opinions differ because we believe the Jets are at different stages of development/emergence. I don't think we'll be true contenders until our entire organizational depth is strengthened so I'm not worried about playoff experience until that happens. Once we improve our depth (at the NHL, AHL and amateur prospect level), then I would agree with you that playoff experience/success will be key to take the next step.

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03-25-2013, 06:47 PM
  #577
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
It isn't as simple as playoffs or no playoffs. It is much more complex than that.

Perhaps (at the deadline) Chevy thinks the Jets have 95% chance of making the playoffs with Hainsey and an 85% chance of making it without him, a 10% chance of making the playoffs becomes Hainsey's theoretical value. Draft picks also have a theoretical value. What is a 10% chance of making the playoffs worth in terms of draft picks? Chevy has to find that balance and make decisions accordingly.
This is what I was trying to say, but you did a much better job.

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03-25-2013, 06:50 PM
  #578
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
And with all due respect Stej, whether or not those 10 games and more importantly playoffs are of MARGINAL value is a matter of opinion, not fact. That experience is not marginal. It is VITAL for this team to take the next step.

Now let's say a deal comes along. Ron Hainsey straight across for a 1st round pick. Jets take it. Now we have a huge gaping on our blueline. Who are we going to acquire to replace him? We just saw a slower version of Mark Stuart go for 2nd's/2nd+3rd. Who is out there that can help us get to playoffs? Anybody? And would you be willing to give up a 1st for a top 4 defenseman as a rental?

That goes both ways, we just saw a major overpayment in terms of value and every report coming out of the trade is that the market price for defense is very high. At what point does the return for Hainsey justify the possibility of missing the playoffs? I have always been of the opinion that getting assets far outweighs the experience of getting into the playoffs but even if you concede that there is still a tipping point. Where that tipping point lies is a matter of personal opinion, for me it would be a 2nd and 3rd round pick for others that value playoff experience more I'm sure the price is higher but ether way its there. In any trade involving Hainsey it will come down to where Chevy sees that tipping point and if the other teams in the league are willing to meet that price.

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03-25-2013, 07:02 PM
  #579
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I don't want to multi-quote everybody, but I'll just post this.

a) Every single year we hear about how the market is going crazy for defensemen. This is not new. This is merely the going rate, there is no selling Hainsey high now and buying low sometime else. This is how it is. Brenden freaking Witt got traded for a 1st round pick back in the day. So we will not replace Hainsey cheaply.

b) I would not trade a first round pick for Smid...since we do not need Smid. But should we trade Hainsey for a 1st, turn around and deal that first for Smid...I'm ok with that.

c) It's even less simple than you make it out to be truck. It's not just about how much that "10%" is worth, it's about the place Chevy views the team to be at. I think the team needs to take the first step into playoffs. We cannot wait any longer, this team has been stuck drafting 6th-13th for far too many years now. Don't build teams there. Not too mention the impact on the dressing room. Clearly telling everyone in the room Chevy does not think they are good enough.

Clearly you guy do not feel Kulda or Clitsome or whatever other guy we toss in there will be much if any downgrade on Hainsey. I disagree.

The system is being rebuilt as we speak, but teams are not built while finishing in 17th-23rd while waiting for the system to rebuild. That's never worked. As I have posted before, all organizations that won a Stanley Cup between lockouts (except Detroit) followed an EERILY similiar model. One that we were following until we got stuck here, in step 2 just outside of playoffs. It was the one place no other Stanley Cup winning team got stuck. Teams that get stuck there turn out like FLA or CBS, IMO. That's why I want to get out of it, or rebuild. This is a bad place to be, and not a place to build a team.

We simply cannot continue to fester here. A team is simply not going to be able to turn it around one day after waiting a certain time period for the system to stock itself. This core of guys is already starting to get too old. Because remember AFTER you make playoffs you still have 2-3 years to being a legit Stanley Cup contender, and we have so many RFA and UFA's, that could prevent us from adding the pieces we need to get over the top.

This is not a year 2 franchise. That is the important thing here. With this core we do not have all the time in the world, progress needs to be made or may as well start over a try again.

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03-25-2013, 07:06 PM
  #580
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It doesn't matter how long this franchse has been in existence. The truth is we have a glut of D, and more than one is expendable. Our prospect pool is thin especially at forward, and we have assets that can be moved without blowing it all up.

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03-25-2013, 07:15 PM
  #581
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Quote:
Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
It doesn't matter how long this franchse has been in existence. The truth is we have a glut of D, and more than one is expendable. Our prospect pool is thin especially at forward, and we have assets that can be moved without blowing it all up.
The problem is we have a glut of bottom-end D. Who don't hold as much value to acquire forward talent. It doesn't make sense to trade a semi good one (Hainsey) just because we have a warm body to take his place.

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03-25-2013, 07:18 PM
  #582
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Rebuilding Teams

TeamTankStartYearsTop5 Playoffs Finals
SJS 1996 3 3 12+ 3
VAN 1998 2 3 4 1
ATL 1999 6 4 1 0
CBJ 2000 13 5 0 0
FLO 2001 7 4 0 0
CAR 2003 2 3 1 1
WSH 2004 3 3 5+ 0
CHI 2004 3 3 4+ 2
STL 2006 3 2 1 0
LAK 2007 3 3 3+ 1
ATL 2008 5 2 0 0
TBL 2008 5 2 0 0
Years are amount of years sitting in the bottom 10...
http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/11/8/how-...ebuilding-work

As you can see teams that are successful coming out of rebuild and stay there are teams that push "quickly"

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03-25-2013, 07:21 PM
  #583
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Rebuilding Teams

TeamTankStartYearsTop5 Playoffs Finals
SJS 1996 3 3 12+ 3
VAN 1998 2 3 4 1
ATL 1999 6 4 1 0
CBJ 2000 13 5 0 0
FLO 2001 7 4 0 0
CAR 2003 2 3 1 1
WSH 2004 3 3 5+ 0
CHI 2004 3 3 4+ 2
STL 2006 3 2 1 0
LAK 2007 3 3 3+ 1
ATL 2008 5 2 0 0
TBL 2008 5 2 0 0
Years are amount of years sitting in the bottom 10...
http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/11/8/how-...ebuilding-work

As you can see teams that are successful coming out of rebuild and stay there are teams that push "quickly"
I'm not sure what the conclusion is here? How does a team push quickly?

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03-25-2013, 07:21 PM
  #584
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We don't know how Kulda and Trouba will turn out, one of them alone could eat Hainseys minutes, or together they could. Stuart certainly cannot handle big minutes, but Clitsome has shown improvement in his game.

In fact the only reason Hainsey is a #4 is he chews minutes. He doesn't move the puck, can't shoot worth a a damn (his one-timer is worse than Littles) and to call him a shut down D is an insult to shut down D. He's not a bad defenceman by any stretch, but he doesn't really have an overwhelming quality to him. He's a very plain vanilla d-man.

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03-25-2013, 07:24 PM
  #585
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
c) It's even less simple than you make it out to be truck. It's not just about how much that "10%" is worth, it's about the place Chevy views the team to be at. I think the team needs to take the first step into playoffs. We cannot wait any longer, this team has been stuck drafting 6th-13th for far too many years now. Don't build teams there. Not too mention the impact on the dressing room. Clearly telling everyone in the room Chevy does not think they are good enough.

Clearly you guy do not feel Kulda or Clitsome or whatever other guy we toss in there will be much if any downgrade on Hainsey. I disagree.
I have said repeatedly that the team is better with Ron Ron. I do see Clitsome or Kulda as a downgrade. How much of a downgrade is debatable. That doesn't change much here.

I also agree that it is important for the youngsters to experience playoffs, but...

There is a chance that the Jets won't make the playoffs if they keep Ron.
There is a chance that the Jets would make the playoffs if they trade Ron.

Chevy's job is to tabulate those probabilities judge the difference and balance the costs. There is always a tipping point. Where the tipping point is... that is anybody's guess.

EDIT

If Chevy is offered a 1st round pick and he declines and the Jets miss the playoffs - He wasted a 1st round pick.
If Chevy is offered a 1st round pick and he takes it and the Jets makes the playoffs - He added a 1st round pick.
If Chevy is offered a 1st round pick and he takes it and the Jets miss the playoffs - He added a 1st round pick and created a grey area of blame.


Last edited by truck: 03-25-2013 at 07:34 PM.
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03-25-2013, 07:24 PM
  #586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stej View Post
I'm not sure what the conclusion is here? How does a team push quickly?
Conclusion is a team's core window is a lot smaller than what many think, before they get stuck in no-mans-land


Quote:
Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
We don't know how Kulda and Trouba will turn out, one of them alone could eat Hainseys minutes, or together they could. Stuart certainly cannot handle big minutes, but Clitsome has shown improvement in his game.

In fact the only reason Hainsey is a #4 is he chews minutes. He doesn't move the puck, can't shoot worth a a damn (his one-timer is worse than Littles) and to call him a shut down D is an insult to shut down D. He's not a bad defenceman by any stretch, but he doesn't really have an overwhelming quality to him. He's a very plain vanilla d-man.
Devil's advocate time.

While I agree that Kulda and Trouba could turn out better, you should never count on it.

Also, Hainsey isn't effective just because "chew" minutes. You chew minutes because you are effective in the minutes you play.
He is effective defensively and a pretty good shutdown D in the fact that when he's on the ice he's able to reduce scoring chances against and push the play forward. Bogosian's statistically has been better with him than without him, defensively and offensively... this is comparing against all the slew of D-men that have paired with Bogosian.
The reason why he can do this is because he indeed has qualities to him. He's smart positionally and very vocal; Bogosian has stated before that he really appreciates Hainsey's ability to help direct and steer him. He is a solid shot blocker and effective checker in the fact that he usually knows when to use each one, unlike Stuart who tends to make the wrong decision and better players take advantage.


Last edited by garret9: 03-25-2013 at 07:32 PM.
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03-25-2013, 07:30 PM
  #587
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Conclusion is a team's core window is a lot smaller than what many think, before they get stuck in no-mans-land
Okay, but how do we act on that information? That's what I don't understand. How do we get un-stuck from no-mans-land?

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03-25-2013, 07:36 PM
  #588
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Okay, but how do we act on that information? That's what I don't understand. How do we get un-stuck from no-mans-land?
I wasn't directing how to use this information.
I was merely stating that this is an additional variable to consider with Hainsey and others.
Basically what I'm saying is this information adds weight to the possibility it may be better to keep a stronger player like Hainsey, even if you are to lose him in the offseason.

What I mean is: it may not mean the scale is tipped to keeping Hainsey, but that is another thing tipping the scale in that direction.

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03-25-2013, 07:42 PM
  #589
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I wasn't directing how to use this information.
I was merely stating that this is an additional variable to consider with Hainsey and others.
Basically what I'm saying is this information adds weight to the possibility it may be better to keep a stronger player like Hainsey, even if you are to lose him in the offseason.

What I mean is: it may not mean the scale is tipped to keeping Hainsey, but that is another thing tipping the scale in that direction.
Hard to identify a causal relationship there though.

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03-25-2013, 07:45 PM
  #590
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If Hainsey brings in a first round pick I'd poop my pants all over the floor.

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03-25-2013, 07:48 PM
  #591
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Originally Posted by Stej View Post
Hard to identify a causal relationship there though.
Here's something the author said:

Quote:
Of the 19 rebuilds that are finished, 11 of them took between three and five seasons, and none of the teams who took more or less time than that were able to meet both of the criteria I'm using for success. Of the teams on the bubble now, I think that Atlanta/Winnipeg, and Long Island will have a hard time meeting both criteria.

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03-25-2013, 07:56 PM
  #592
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
While I agree that Kulda and Trouba could turn out better, you should never count on it.
I'm not. We have to realize that assets need to be sold at times to jump on any inflated values our rentals may have. No team ever has a direct replacement for a player they sell, that's just the risk they take.

Quote:
Also, Hainsey isn't effective just because "chew" minutes. You chew minutes because you are effective in the minutes you play.
He is effective defensively and a pretty good shutdown D in the fact that when he's on the ice he's able to reduce scoring chances against and push the play forward. Bogosian's statistically has been better with him than without him, defensively and offensively... this is comparing against all the slew of D-men that have paired with Bogosian.
The reason why he can do this is because he indeed has qualities to him. He's smart positionally and very vocal; Bogosian has stated before that he really appreciates Hainsey's ability to help direct and steer him. He is a solid shot blocker and effective checker in the fact that he usually knows when to use each one, unlike Stuart who tends to make the wrong decision and better players take advantage.
Yet again I cannot disagree with you. He certainly isn't flashy with his puck moving like Enstrom, has a bomb like Byfuglien, or hits like Stuart, but he certainly is well rounded. I didn't say his only redeeming quality is that he chews minutes, I said that he's only a #4 because he chews minutes. If he didn't, he'd be no higher than Stuart on the depth chart. I'm not saying they're comparable defensively, because Hainsey is clearly much better defensively than Stuart.

As for the vocal part, that is one thing that is missing in todays game. In fact I'm the very last row of MTSC (304 row 12) and I regularly hear Hainsey yelling "wheel wheel wheel". In fact me and my GF make a game of it. On the flip side our other d-men seem to be improving in this part.

As far as Stuart, he's another guy that is probably more valuable to another team than to us. You're a stats guy, you know that.

Part of good management is knowing when to strike the iron. I'd argue consistent playoff teams know when to do this best. The Bobrovsky trade and Staal trade are two good examples. Although these type of "sell" trades are rarely done at the deadline from playoff teams. Usually it's the off-season. Douglas Murray was just "sold" from a team that's in 9th place. He was doing 16-21 TOI.

The Ponikarovsky/Tangradi deal was essentially a sell/downgrade for picks trade.

Even at this point, Chevy will sell assets we are in abundance of if the price is right. He's invested heavily in filling the prospect pool, at this point our youngest prospectd he's pulled out for full time work are 24 (Postma, Kulda, Redmond). Drafting and picks are absolutely essential to the success of this or any franchise.

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03-25-2013, 08:01 PM
  #593
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With Enstrom, Clitsome, Stuart and Kulda I can't see why we can't afford to make due with what we have if we can get a high enough return back.

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03-25-2013, 08:04 PM
  #594
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Also if you want to talk about risk vs reward or being conservative vs going for it:

The biggest risk is keeping Hainsey, not making the playoffs, then having him walk.

Some will argue that the odds of the late 1st he could possibly fetch being an equal player to Hainsey are low. I counter with two points, first draft picks are like cash, in that they can be spent at any time to acquire anything you need. We may not ride out that pick until it matures. The second is even if this player is similar to Hainsey, his contract value is higher because he's a younger player.

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03-25-2013, 08:08 PM
  #595
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With Enstrom, Clitsome, Stuart and Kulda I can't see why we can't afford to make due with what we have if we can get a high enough return back.
Agree.

Buff
Enstrom
Clitsome
Bogo
Stuart
Kulda

We shouldn't hurt much with that. Especially if we can get a good return.

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03-25-2013, 08:10 PM
  #596
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Agree.

Buff
Enstrom
Trouba
Clitsome
Bogo
Stuart
Kulda

We shouldn't hurt much with that. Especially if we can get a good return.
Fixed.

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03-25-2013, 08:11 PM
  #597
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A question for those not wanting to sell Hainsey:

Do you feel selling Oduya last year lead to us missing the playoffs?

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03-25-2013, 08:13 PM
  #598
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I'm not. We have to realize that assets need to be sold at times to jump on any inflated values our rentals may have. No team ever has a direct replacement for a player they sell, that's just the risk they take.



Yet again I cannot disagree with you. He certainly isn't flashy with his puck moving like Enstrom, has a bomb like Byfuglien, or hits like Stuart, but he certainly is well rounded. I didn't say his only redeeming quality is that he chews minutes, I said that he's only a #4 because he chews minutes. If he didn't, he'd be no higher than Stuart on the depth chart. I'm not saying they're comparable defensively, because Hainsey is clearly much better defensively than Stuart.

As for the vocal part, that is one thing that is missing in todays game. In fact I'm the very last row of MTSC (304 row 12) and I regularly hear Hainsey yelling "wheel wheel wheel". In fact me and my GF make a game of it. On the flip side our other d-men seem to be improving in this part.

As far as Stuart, he's another guy that is probably more valuable to another team than to us. You're a stats guy, you know that.

Part of good management is knowing when to strike the iron. I'd argue consistent playoff teams know when to do this best. The Bobrovsky trade and Staal trade are two good examples. Although these type of "sell" trades are rarely done at the deadline from playoff teams. Usually it's the off-season. Douglas Murray was just "sold" from a team that's in 9th place. He was doing 16-21 TOI.

The Ponikarovsky/Tangradi deal was essentially a sell/downgrade for picks trade.

Even at this point, Chevy will sell assets we are in abundance of if the price is right. He's invested heavily in filling the prospect pool, at this point our youngest prospectd he's pulled out for full time work are 24 (Postma, Kulda, Redmond). Drafting and picks are absolutely essential to the success of this or any franchise.
I guess what I'm saying is I don't like the idea downgrading at this point... which was also why I didn't like the Ponikarovsky trade.

I feel that there are times where it is the right decision and times where it is not. I also believe that every individual time is unique and there isn't any particular standard. Although, I would say that teams dead set on either side of the playoff fence to have more freedom in making them.

In the end, GM decisions always involve risk and even when decisions end up being positive, it doesn't necessitate that they were the right decisions to be made, similar to gambling.

Either way it will be interesting to see how things go.


For the Oduya comment. He played a much smaller role than Hainsey does/has. The loss of Oduya did affect our PK marginally though.

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03-25-2013, 08:19 PM
  #599
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Right now we're leading our division. Lets pretend that we make the playoffs.

Why wouldn't we put ourselves in the best possible position to compete once we're there? Because we wont make it our of the first round? If the playoffs started tomorrow...we would face Toronto. I feel very good about our chances against TO. Once your there, anything can happen.

You trade away Hainsey, who is our only real stay at home Defender, and you create a gigantic hole on our Blueline that will not be filled effectively by a player that should never see daylight out of the 6th spot...a player that is terribly inconsistent and makes all of us scared ****less when he steps on the ice and a player that has only played 9 games.

Great move.

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03-25-2013, 08:19 PM
  #600
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I guess what I'm saying is I don't like the idea downgrading at this point... which was also why I didn't like the Ponikarovsky trade.
I get that. But it may not be a downgrade, or much of one


Quote:
For the Oduya comment. He played a much smaller role than Hainsey does/has. The loss of Oduya did affect our PK marginally though.
We replaced Oduya with Clitsome. Hainsey could be replaced by one or both of Kulda and Trouba. I'd say the first was a definite downgrade, the second may not be one at all.

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