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Old
03-14-2013, 11:49 AM
  #226
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
But lets be clear here. Even a week ago when RNH had all of 7pts you were saying he'd been the better offensive player as well this year. To which nobody on the board agreed with you.

I don't think we're seeing the same things here which is fine. Again at least we do like both players.

That Nuges is "miles ahead of Gagner defensively" is simply unsubstantiated. In fact a head coach is using one of them on the PK regularly. Which one?

I wonder why.
When I say that RNH is the better offensive player I mean that in any given future game, assuming equal levels of competition, he has a better chance of contributing to a goal than Gagner does. I maintain this is the case, irrespective of production to date.

RNH isn't killing penalties because they don't want his 180 lb body blocking shots and he's having a hard enough time maintaining his offense on top of having to shut down the best offensive players in the league at ES, without heaping PK time on top of that. In time he'll be a fixture on the Oilers PK.

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03-14-2013, 11:49 AM
  #227
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Originally Posted by Ol' Jase View Post
It means that game in and game out, Gagner is not facing the same level of competition as Nugent-Hopkins is, and every metric, including actual tracking of who is on the ice against who, bears this out.
You continue to ignore my statement that theres very little difference in WC with teams 1A, and 1B lines. If you're a topsix player in the west you see a lot of topsix opposition. Most teams have a good second line, on most teams its almost indistinguishable who the top line is. On some teams like us the 2nd line is more productive.

As far as metrics if you're going to start trotting out rubbish like corsi and qualcomp I'll exit the sidebar conversation and agree to disagree.

btw you still didn't get where your sentence was wrong. Of course Gagner has faced other teams topline opposition. Perhaps not as much.

But Gagner faces them on the pk, Hopkins does not.


Finally, and because I have a hard time arguing with you, and I like you, I'll make it easy.

The question you should ask is this: At respective ages which player has a better all round game? Clearly the answer is RNH.

Or you could ask which player likely will be the better defensive player? To this still I would perhaps give the nod to RNH.

But if you're asking which one is now, the team has decided that for now Gagner makes more sense in defensive assignments. Perhaps why they play him on the PP and often enough AS a defenceman to boot. Should I trust the teams instincts on this or some stats gobbledegook?

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03-14-2013, 11:54 AM
  #228
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Originally Posted by worraps View Post
When I say that RNH is the better offensive player I mean that in any given future game, assuming equal levels of competition, he has a better chance of contributing to a goal than Gagner does. I maintain this is the case, irrespective of production to date.

RNH isn't killing penalties because they don't want his 180 lb body blocking shots and he's having a hard enough time maintaining his offense on top of having to shut down the best offensive players in the league at ES, without heaping PK time on top of that. In time he'll be a fixture on the Oilers PK.
Unfortunately in actual words you'd stated, and clearly, that RNH has been the better offensive player this year. Which is why a dozen posters disagreed with you immediately.

Sometimes in writing past/present tense can get screwed up in terms of what one actually means. Or in threads it can be confusing when different people are in a convo and who is answering to specifically what.

I do thank you for clarifying.

Yes, in terms of upper potential and going forward I expect Nuge to have greater offensive numbers. But I think the margin will be less significant then people might think.

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03-14-2013, 12:03 PM
  #229
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Irrespective of production, I think RNH has done marginally more to contribute to scoring chances this season than Gagner has. Unfortunately for him he was playing against very good defensemen, his shooting percentage has been exceptionally low, and Jordan Eberle's shooting percentage has also been abnormally low.

That said it has been a lot closer than I thought it would be. Gagner has been excellent off the rush and has been going to the tough areas to score.

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03-14-2013, 12:17 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
You continue to ignore my statement that theres very little difference in WC with teams 1A, and 1B lines. If you're a topsix player in the west you see a lot of topsix opposition. Most teams have a good second line, on most teams its almost indistinguishable who the top line is. On some teams like us the 2nd line is more productive.

As far as metrics if you're going to start trotting out rubbish like corsi and qualcomp I'll exit the sidebar conversation and agree to disagree.

btw you still didn't get where your sentence was wrong. Of course Gagner has faced other teams topline opposition. Perhaps not as much.

But Gagner faces them on the pk, Hopkins does not.


Finally, and because I have a hard time arguing with you, and I like you, I'll make it easy.

The question you should ask is this: At respective ages which player has a better all round game? Clearly the answer is RNH.

Or you could ask which player likely will be the better defensive player? To this still I would perhaps give the nod to RNH.

But if you're asking which one is now, the team has decided that for now Gagner makes more sense in defensive assignments. Perhaps why they play him on the PP and often enough AS a defenceman to boot. Should I trust the teams instincts on this or some stats gobbledegook?
Nothing you're saying is wrong, Replacement, just taken to far to the extreme.

Does Gagner face top opposition players? Yes.

For example, he matched up against Patrick Kane more than any other Hawk in Chicago on Sunday.

RNH? Toews and Hossa.

Please keep in mind that Gagner's PK time is in the absence of Horcoff, as well. Gagner is not a regular PK shift taker due to his outstanding PK abilities, surely you can see that for what it is.

There is no need to get so defensive regarding your favorite Oiler. I have been more than impressed with him this year, have always liked him, and want him as a long term Oiler 100%.

But to call actual line combination and actual line matching data "goobledegook" stats is very strange. In fact, it is one of the only hockey stats that requires no context or "grain of salt."

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03-14-2013, 12:33 PM
  #231
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Here's my assessment of Gagner: He has shown as much or more will, determination and success as any Oiler currently on the roster. Given that he came in the league labeled as highly skilled, these personality attributes tell me that there is a lot more good to come.

He is trending up and I would like to see where he takes it especially because he was an Oiler pick. DO NOT TRADE unless we have something more special being offered in return.

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03-14-2013, 03:35 PM
  #232
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How much is he going to demand in the summer? If he continues at a ppg you would have to think he would want 6mil a year... I would hope the Oilers can get him for 4mil but I doubt it... Might have to make a tough decision with him this summer..

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03-14-2013, 03:41 PM
  #233
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How much is he going to demand in the summer? If he continues at a ppg you would have to think he would want 6mil a year... I would hope the Oilers can get him for 4mil but I doubt it... Might have to make a tough decision with him this summer..
Maybe he asks for ~$5M like Hemsky is getting? It would be hard to argue that he deserves less if he keeps playing the way he is. At the same time, $5M is more than I'd like to sign him up for.

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03-14-2013, 05:39 PM
  #234
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Hemsky was about to be a UFA, so I can kind of see the justification for paying him more.

Gagner is an RFA, so that reduces it somewhat. Still, hard to see him taking less than 5/year after a PPG season when Hall and Eberle just got 6 for similar production.

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03-14-2013, 06:12 PM
  #235
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Originally Posted by SeriousBusiness View Post
Maybe he asks for ~$5M like Hemsky is getting? It would be hard to argue that he deserves less if he keeps playing the way he is. At the same time, $5M is more than I'd like to sign him up for.
5M was agreed to with hemsky before the cap went down. the economics have changed. I would like to see a deal in the 4.25-4.5 range for 2-3year term. Its one year out of 5 that he has done well. I dont think you trade him unless he is looking at 5 or more. The fact is that I dont believe this will be a good year for FAs either with the cap going down and ALOT of empty seats in arenas.
*edit*for Gagner fans the term of 2-3 years is actually very decent and lets him prove a higher value where the oilers, despite him going into UFA years, will have a chance to etend him in any direction Gagners play determines. Also its a tradeable figure in the tighter economics to follow. Anyone who thinks the NHL is in good shape should count the empty seats in all american arenas (and its still winter FFS)

However, i cant say management knows alot about economics.

As for keeping Gagner. I have never been a huge fan but i think it is far easier to get him a big left winger on the market, even an elite one, than try to upgrade at centre. I also prefer to keep the devil i know rather than hope a minor upgrade centre is going to be able to translate their game with this core and team game. Fact is Gagner is here and showing us what he can do with this club under this staff and system... any incoming player does not have that. So yes i keep Gagner. Frankly i roll my eyes when i hear the talk of trading him...

At centre my issue is more with getting Belanger upgraded since he has zero physicality, zero offensive sense, and zero finish. He is a black hole.


Last edited by oilinblood: 03-14-2013 at 06:22 PM.
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Old
03-15-2013, 01:08 AM
  #236
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Just to chip in my two cents, I think it's a relative fluke, these lockout seasons see them, I think last time around zhamnov was top 5(editr not but he still had a really good year) in scoring, I would still shop him quietly if I was management and if I couldn't get a high end defenseman don't bother, also a reasonable extension would make some sense too(of course still shop him)

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03-15-2013, 02:11 AM
  #237
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Well Gags is having a great year and he has improved.

All I see on this thread is one poster over-exaggerating Gagner's abilities and another one doing everything he can to discredit Gagner's accomplishments thus far. I'm glad more posters are falling into the happy medium that is Gagner is a solid offensive-minded NHL player and centre having a great year and have room to improve in certain aspects of his game.

As for trading him, it has to be for the right player. Not some 6'5'' scrub that can't play hockey because "we need size in our top 6"

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03-15-2013, 07:28 AM
  #238
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Cogliano has outpointed Gagner Es with limited minutes(no pp) as a winger playing with Winnik a 28 years old scrub (9 rounder) and 38 years old koivu who hasnt racked up numbers points for years.

We traded away Cogs who had great speed, he was never injured and was a good pk er. I liked Cogs , he was small and couldnt win a fo for his life, but this team needed to get bigger and win some momentum, so the divorce wasnt that hard, after bringing in scrub after scrub in the down 6, i start to be a bit irritated. Belanger kills every f try to have some offense from the bottom lines and smyth is a really dissapointment.

The point im making is, Gagner with top minutes produces in a great pace right now and Cogs with 3 line minutes produces more then him EV strenght right now.

Cogs is cheap, he can play Winger with his speed, hes a great forechecker and even a threat in pk, you know what you get with him, even with his bad hands, he generates offense with his speed, and can be used in different roles when injurys happens.

Gagner would be a god fit in a team who has size and strenght, he has great hands and has a nose for the goal, and a decent shot. But he is to easy to outmuscle, he hasnt any speed to move possesion into the offensive zone, he cant protect and hold on to the puck so our wingers comes in scoring areas. In pp and loose played games, he gets that time but 5 on 5 in tight games ,our wingers doesnt play psysical enough to buy him that time.

I dont want to get stucked with a 2 C who in tight games needs a paajarvi with speed or a hemsky dangle to get into the zone and arent psysical enough to gain possession. Hall is a zone breaker with his speed, Rnh to with his dangle, and he protects the puck great. Gagner is great when they coming in semi counteratacks, given the time to do his stuff.




Gagner has improved, This young team improves, looking at the scorecard every time to see improvement isnt productive, I have never thrown this team under the bus(has been tempted many times) but this team need to get some grit up front and unlucky for the Gagner supporters, he is the most expendable in the top six and i cant see him in our future plans(which is be back on the top), even worse now if he continues the strike, would asking for a long contract x 5 million, and we cant even use him on the wing, has been tried and hes way to slow for that.

I pretty sure that Cogliano wouldnt continue his strike, but hes useful in the team anyway to a normal price, the points is a bonus. Gagner on other hand if back to 40 pt seasons, cant be used other then in offensive lines and pp. Then we sits on a player with a let say 6x 5 contract impossible to trade and useless to the team.

People seems to throw away long contracts after a good stint for a player, doesnt matter if the name are paajarvi,Gagner,Jones or Schultz, we must use our assets to get us a better team, nevermind who we sacrifice as long its makes sense in 3-4 years.

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03-15-2013, 07:56 AM
  #239
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Originally Posted by Ol' Jase View Post
Please keep in mind that Gagner's PK time is in the absence of Horcoff, as well. Gagner is not a regular PK shift taker due to his outstanding PK abilities, surely you can see that for what it is.
What I take it for is the Oilers expanding Gagners roles on the club, which has happened this year under Krueger. For instance, the pk minutes, next positioning Gagner as a forward playing point on the PP. Do these two uses not suggest a team believing in Gagners defensive responsibility out there?

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There is no need to get so defensive regarding your favorite Oiler. I have been more than impressed with him this year, have always liked him, and want him as a long term Oiler 100%
.On this forum you would know why its possible to get defensive in regards to certain players.

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But to call actual line combination and actual line matching data "goobledegook" stats is very strange. In fact, it is one of the only hockey stats that requires no context or "grain of salt."
To be clear here I have no use for derivations like Corsi, Fenwick, Qualcomp, PDO and other such *advanced stats* calculations. These formulas are unsubstantiated, have not had rigorous methodology applied to them in either their formulation or in cross checking right kind of results they result in.
Next, with these stats, and even with player matching data who is checking and cross checking these stats?
Recently I've started consulting within this and other boards on erroneous behind the net data. This started a year ago when people started to notice obvious errors popping up in the stats. Most recently in an LA game the topline of Nugent, Eberle, Hall, were -3 in a game against LA. Still, over a week later(and two subsequent games in between) the data for that game was not entered. Like the game hadn't taken place and didn't exist. Reportedly someone had to inform the site that they had neglected to enter data on that game.

Now what I mention here is perhaps understandable as most of these advanced stats applications are more volunteer in spirit. I'm sure the sites make some money on hits but this is largely people doing this on their own time. But given that, and given numerous mistakes in the data that people note why should I, or anybody, treat the stats or matching data as if they are gospel and 100% correct?

Finally, matching data does not tell the whole story. You mentioned in a post that last year Gagner got appreciable toi with Hemsky and Hall. I should note that in the case of Hemsky that a large part of this occurred after Hemsky had gone cold on another line and lines were juggled and he was put with Gagner. In the case of Hall and Hemsky matching with Gagner occurred more when the team was suffering through injury, had at the best of times only one offensve line going, and at a time where the team was sinking fast. Do the matching stats make any differentiation between time and place and circumstance? Of course they don't. Its hard to even look at some of this data without thinking about the myriad circumstance that resulted in the numbers.

hope some of this is clear.

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03-15-2013, 09:51 AM
  #240
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To me: it depends on what he's looking for in his next contract.
David Desharnais and the Montreal Canadiens have agreed on a 4-year, $14-million extension. This should be the benchmark ..maybe $4 M per year for 4 years.

But I agree..I think he ought to be kept around, unless he wants to break the bank.

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03-15-2013, 12:02 PM
  #241
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Nice to see Sam getting his due and the headcoach knowing what he's got here. A very interesting article that rebukes the claim that Gagner isn't seeing tough minutes and tough opponents:

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sport...431/story.html

Quote:
The London, Ont., native been flying under the radar for years, but what about now?

He should be right in the middle of that radar, said Oilers head coach Ralph Krueger, giving the sixth overall pick in the 2007 entry draft his due.

You can tell by the opposition, by the defensive pairs out against him. Theyre respecting him in a different way right now, Krueger said.
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Gagner is playing 19:22 a game, 31 seconds more a game than Hall, 24 seconds less than Nugent-Hopkins and 29 behind Eberle. The Oilers are using him to kill penalties for the first time regularly, and also on the power play. Hes getting the same well-rounded work captain Shawn Horcoff was getting before his role on the club changed and his minutes were cut back.

Sams been our most consistent forward the whole year. His battle and compete level is at an all-time high, and hes been prepared every game, Horcoff said.
Quote:
For now, Krueger is throwing him out an average of 25 shifts a night, more than any other Oilers forward.

Sams in the group of players who are leading our offence. Hes not a substitute, Krueger said. Hes a major centrepiece of whats happening here. Hes become one of our top four penalty killers. Hes put in a lot of hard work the last few years to get to where he is now. Ive watched him off-ice, how he takes care of himself, hes improved so much.

For sure, Sams speed is much more consistent on a shift-to-shift basis.

It must have been that time he spent in Austria (lockout), Krueger said, laughing, since he once played and coached in that same league.



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03-15-2013, 12:10 PM
  #242
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What I take it for is the Oilers expanding Gagners roles on the club, which has happened this year under Krueger. For instance, the pk minutes, next positioning Gagner as a forward playing point on the PP. Do these two uses not suggest a team believing in Gagners defensive responsibility out there?
Again, injuries have determined Gagner's PK increase, that is extremely evident. Gagner's "defensive game" still needs a TON of work, anyone can see this, regardless of whether you want to take any other metric into account.

Quote:
To be clear here I have no use for derivations like Corsi, Fenwick, Qualcomp, PDO and other such *advanced stats* calculations. These formulas are unsubstantiated, have not had rigorous methodology applied to them in either their formulation or in cross checking right kind of results they result in.
Next, with these stats, and even with player matching data who is checking and cross checking these stats?
Line matching data and TOI data comes directly from the NHL. You are claiming in error who Gagner matches up against, and plays with, and when shown that your assertion is incorrect, you fault the data? Not the stronget argument.

Quote:
Recently I've started consulting within this and other boards on erroneous behind the net data. This started a year ago when people started to notice obvious errors popping up in the stats. Most recently in an LA game the topline of Nugent, Eberle, Hall, were -3 in a game against LA. Still, over a week later(and two subsequent games in between) the data for that game was not entered. Like the game hadn't taken place and didn't exist. Reportedly someone had to inform the site that they had neglected to enter data on that game.
Again, behindthenet does not create TOI data, the NHL does.

Quote:
Now what I mention here is perhaps understandable as most of these advanced stats applications are more volunteer in spirit. I'm sure the sites make some money on hits but this is largely people doing this on their own time. But given that, and given numerous mistakes in the data that people note why should I, or anybody, treat the stats or matching data as if they are gospel and 100% correct?
Again, you don't have to go down this road when there is so much about Gagner to like. I can't understand for the life of me discounting such simple data, it really hurts the credibility of your argument.

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Finally, matching data does not tell the whole story. You mentioned in a post that last year Gagner got appreciable toi with Hemsky and Hall. I should note that in the case of Hemsky that a large part of this occurred after Hemsky had gone cold on another line and lines were juggled and he was put with Gagner. In the case of Hall and Hemsky matching with Gagner occurred more when the team was suffering through injury, had at the best of times only one offensve line going, and at a time where the team was sinking fast. Do the matching stats make any differentiation between time and place and circumstance? Of course they don't. Its hard to even look at some of this data without thinking about the myriad circumstance that resulted in the numbers.
When you claim that this player play with this one or this player plays against this one, and your assertion isn't true, how can you possibly counter with "these were the circumstances under which this occured"?

Again, you didn't have to go down this road in defense of the value of the player, but it seems you wish to do so unabated. Your call, man, but it's really weakening your argument that Gagner is the player you are making him out to be.


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03-15-2013, 12:11 PM
  #243
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Nice to see Sam getting his due and the headcoach knowing what he's got here. A very interesting article that rebukes the claim that Gagner isn't seeing tough minutes and tough opponents:

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sport...431/story.html

Great message to the takers, dont come with any lowball offers.
Hes tradevalue is highest ever!

Of course a 2 line C sees hard opposition, but not the hardest as Hall line!

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03-15-2013, 12:58 PM
  #244
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FTR Hopkins has more EV GA than Gagner. It wouldn't even be close either were it not for the 3-4 empty net goals Gagner has been on the ice for this year as when the team needs to pop a goal late in the game and pull the goalie Gagner is ALWAYS one of the players tapped. Unfortunately, and for reasons I can't understand, they include that in EV GA stats although its atypical and doesn't really contribute to an accurate gauge on defensive play.

Lets not forget either that in the above you are comparing Gagner playing with scrubs like Nillson and Cogliano and RNH getting to play with world class players like Hall and Eberle. Eberle last year was driving and finishing a lot of pts on that line. Without his sublime finish alone last year some guys easily have 15-20 less pts right there.

Gagner has NEVER had the opportunity to play much with somebody stuffing 35 goals in a season.
ok. you're saying that Gagner is just as good, or better than, RNH. the whole point of this discussion is that we have 2 centres that are essentially the same player, making one expendable in hopes of acquiring a different centre-type. are you saying we should trade RNH and make Gagner the 1C? Can't agree. Or keep both? there is merit to that, but there is also merit to trading one for an equal to, but different C.

My eyes tell me that RNH is the better bet to be a true 1st line centre, of the ilk of a Modanno or H. Sedin or Datsiuk. His ceiling is a 100 point season, maybe even 110. his floor is 70 (Mike Robeiro). Not proven as of yet, just my feeling from what I have seen from him and from what previous kids who are deemed 'the best 18 year old in the world' (and he proved at the WJC, being far and away the best player in the tournament, having one of the best point totals ever). With few exceptions, the best 18 year old in the world ends up being one of the best players in the world at 25.

i agree that Gagner is better than many think. I just don't think he is a good as RNH. just a feeling, not necessarily back by stats.

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03-15-2013, 12:59 PM
  #245
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see lots people saying "hes going to ask for 5M"


this is incorrect, his agent will start by asking for no less than the eberle contract.


He may settle for something more like 5.25, but you are dreaming if you think he'll take less than 5M.



Pay him now, or Pay him more in a year.



Or trade him for futures and keep inserting rookies.

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03-15-2013, 01:28 PM
  #246
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Again, injuries have determined Gagner's PK increase, that is extremely evident. Gagner's "defensive game" still needs a TON of work, anyone can see this, regardless of whether you want to take any other metric into account.



Line matching data and TOI data comes directly from the NHL. You are claiming in error who Gagner matches up against, and plays with, and when shown that your assertion is incorrect, you fault the data? Not the stronget argument.



Again, behindthenet does not create TOI data, the NHL does.



Again, you don't have to go down this road when there is so much about Gagner to like. I can't understand for the life of me discounting such simple data, it really hurts the credibility of your argument.



When you claim that this player play with this one or this player plays against this one, and your assertion isn't true, how can you possibly counter with "these were the circumstances under which this occured"?

Again, you didn't have to go down this road in defense of the value of the player, but it seems you wish to do so unabated. Your call, man, but it's really weakening your argument that Gagner is the player you are making him out to be.
I'm well aware of the difference between behind the net, and other stats, and NHL stats. Fact of the matter is you were earlier talking about line matching stats which are only viewed, and only made available, on sites such as Behind the net, Hockey analysis, etc. These stats are lifted from NHL toi stats but again just like the NHL's realtime stats the numbers and standardization in the collection of this type of data are poorly defined, and poorly tabulated.
Classic case of garbage in/Garbage out. So I do take those stats with a grain of salt.

In contrast I just linked an article from the Headcoach of our pro hockey team who is stating, unequivocally, that Gagner is getting top line matching and top D pair matching, and specific attention from teams and yes I'll trust his view on this over stats that I've seen to be wrong and sometimes far off the mark.

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03-15-2013, 01:32 PM
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ok. you're saying that Gagner is just as good, or better than, RNH. the whole point of this discussion is that we have 2 centres that are essentially the same player, making one expendable in hopes of acquiring a different centre-type. are you saying we should trade RNH and make Gagner the 1C? Can't agree. Or keep both? there is merit to that, but there is also merit to trading one for an equal to, but different C.

My eyes tell me that RNH is the better bet to be a true 1st line centre, of the ilk of a Modanno or H. Sedin or Datsiuk. His ceiling is a 100 point season, maybe even 110. his floor is 70 (Mike Robeiro). Not proven as of yet, just my feeling from what I have seen from him and from what previous kids who are deemed 'the best 18 year old in the world' (and he proved at the WJC, being far and away the best player in the tournament, having one of the best point totals ever). With few exceptions, the best 18 year old in the world ends up being one of the best players in the world at 25.

i agree that Gagner is better than many think. I just don't think he is a good as RNH. just a feeling, not necessarily back by stats.
In multiple posts in the thread I've stated I want both players on my team, I like both players on my team. But what I'm seeing here is more of a Datsyuk/Zetterberg type 1A/1B configuration. Its not always going to be clear who number 1 is and I don't feel its important. What I feel is important is the oilers retaining both of these players.

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03-15-2013, 01:39 PM
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I'm well aware of the difference between behind the net, and other stats, and NHL stats. Fact of the matter is you were earlier talking about line matching stats which are only viewed, and only made available, on sites such as Behind the net, Hockey analysis, etc. These stats are lifted from NHL toi stats but again just like the NHL's realtime stats the numbers and standardization in the collection of this type of data are poorly defined, and poorly tabulated.
Classic case of garbage in/Garbage out. So I do take those stats with a grain of salt.

In contrast I just linked an article from the Headcoach of our pro hockey team who is stating, unequivocally, that Gagner is getting top line matching and top D pair matching, and specific attention from teams and yes I'll trust his view on this over stats that I've seen to be wrong and sometimes far off the mark.
Then there is nothing left to discuss.

It's impossible to discuss who Gagner plays with or against with this level of intellectual dishonesty. We'll agree to disagree, shake hands, and move on.

And Kruger is not stating at all that Gagner is playing top line or top D pairings, the quote was simply that he is playing against better d pairings. You have completely made up that he stated that he is playing other teams top D pairings and top forward lines.

Again, impossible to debate against because it is simply not true, and you have stated something that did not happen as fact.

It's too bad you are discounting the NHL TOI numbers, because in fact, Gagner did spend a significant amount of time against Keith and Seabrook last Sunday. In this case, it would have helped your assertion. Shame "it's garbage in, garbage out".


Last edited by Ol' Jase: 03-15-2013 at 01:47 PM.
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03-15-2013, 01:49 PM
  #249
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5M was agreed to with hemsky before the cap went down. the economics have changed. I would like to see a deal in the 4.25-4.5 range for 2-3year term. Its one year out of 5 that he has done well. I dont think you trade him unless he is looking at 5 or more. The fact is that I dont believe this will be a good year for FAs either with the cap going down and ALOT of empty seats in arenas.
*edit*for Gagner fans the term of 2-3 years is actually very decent and lets him prove a higher value where the oilers, despite him going into UFA years, will have a chance to etend him in any direction Gagners play determines. Also its a tradeable figure in the tighter economics to follow. Anyone who thinks the NHL is in good shape should count the empty seats in all american arenas (and its still winter FFS)

However, i cant say management knows alot about economics.

As for keeping Gagner. I have never been a huge fan but i think it is far easier to get him a big left winger on the market, even an elite one, than try to upgrade at centre. I also prefer to keep the devil i know rather than hope a minor upgrade centre is going to be able to translate their game with this core and team game. Fact is Gagner is here and showing us what he can do with this club under this staff and system... any incoming player does not have that. So yes i keep Gagner. Frankly i roll my eyes when i hear the talk of trading him...

At centre my issue is more with getting Belanger upgraded since he has zero physicality, zero offensive sense, and zero finish. He is a black hole.
I'd like that kind of term as well. We've been burned by throwing around long contracts to players prematurely. We can deal with a two or three year deal, if Gagner falters for some reason.

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03-15-2013, 02:07 PM
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Then there is nothing left to discuss.

It's impossible to discuss who Gagner plays with or against with this level of intellectual dishonesty. We'll agree to disagree, shake hands, and move on.

And Kruger is not stating at all that Gagner is playing top line or top D pairings, the quote was simply that he is playing against better d pairings. You have completely made up that he stated that he is playing other teams top D pairings and top forward lines.

Again, impossible to debate against because it is simply not true, and you have stated something that did not happen as fact.

It's too bad you are discounting the NHL TOI numbers, because in fact, Gagner did spend a significant amount of time against Keith and Seabrook last Sunday. In this case, it would have helped your assertion. Shame "it's garbage in, garbage out".
being perfectly honest when I go look at data on hockey analysis the first thing I notice is columns like Fenwick, Corsi, Haro,, and Hard ratings and other such advanced stats garbage. Instantly I tend to think I'm in the land of contrived stats. What I want, and search desperately, is actual data, actual numbers, not derivations contrived through formulas I don't accept in the first place.

For instance I would prefer actual GF, GA, versus harder to work with GF20% broken down to several decimal pts.. honestly when I see something like that broken down for limited data (and this whole season is largely limited data) it makes me feel I'm perusing numbers designed by David Staples.

To be clear I have background in statistical analysis and years of training in the same. So when I say some stats are poorly conceived I'm expressing more than an opinion. In most instances the individuals compiling such hockey advanced stats have no specific training in statistical analysis or even scientific methodology. Most of the sites don't even offer the specific formulation that they used to derive a particular stat. Many of the advanced stats in use have been effectively and specifically rebuked.
For instance pay attention to the myriad development and changes in Corsi which begat many evolving attempts to make it useful but with this still being a work in progress.

So you end up having to trust in good faith that there numbers mean anything or point out anything useful. Even fewer sites offer a competent rational behind their advanced stats. Usually you just get a brief description of what the stat is.

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