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Greg Sherman & Co - Record as Colorado Avalanche GM (Part II)

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Old
04-22-2013, 04:40 PM
  #476
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I mean getting into the playoffs so they can get some experience for them to use to start making more and more serious playoff runs moving forward. With a real coach, a top 3 pick and a good move or two that's absolutely a realistic target for next season.

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04-22-2013, 04:47 PM
  #477
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Sherman is awesome/worst GM ever.

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04-22-2013, 04:51 PM
  #478
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I mean no offense, but I don't see how anyone can believe that the Avs are one UFA player and one draft pick away from 'making runs' next season. Making runs at what? The 9-11 seed playoff bubble?

I do agree with you that the current set of players playing at a much higher level is unlikely if they don't change the coach. A number of players need to up their play.
I think most people are thinking playoffs. 6-8 seed. Which I don't disagree with. This lineup when healthy is actually pretty good forward wise (actually very solid top 9 on paper), and is a solid top 4 veteran D away from being in the playoff picture. Probably the top 4 D and a top 6 LW from being solidly in. This same basic team was 7 points out of a playoff spot last season, and they played poorly the last 7 games. If they played decent they would have finished a lot closer.

IMO this team is much closer to the 11-12 team than this year's. The talent is there, it just got severely derailed with the ROR holdout, Downie's ACL injury, EJ and Landy concussions, and Wilson pretty much being out the whole year.

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04-22-2013, 04:57 PM
  #479
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
I think most people are thinking playoffs. 6-8 seed. Which I don't disagree with. This lineup when healthy is actually pretty good forward wise (actually very solid top 9 on paper), and is a solid top 4 veteran D away from being in the playoff picture. Probably the top 4 D and a top 6 LW from being solidly in. This same basic team was 7 points out of a playoff spot last season, and they played poorly the last 7 games. If they played decent they would have finished a lot closer.

IMO this team is much closer to the 11-12 team than this year's. The talent is there, it just got severely derailed with the ROR holdout, Downie's ACL injury, EJ and Landy concussions, and Wilson pretty much being out the whole year.
And Zannon, and O'Byrne sucking, and Hunwick being used as a #1 defender. Lets be honest here... Even when we had a fairly healthy defense. Hunwick got overused, and Barrie wasn't playing as well as he is now. Then when Barrie was playing well and we got healthy, Barrie was sent back down.

It's been about 60% injuries, and 40% how this team was managed. We were still a .500 team with all of our injuries when Varly was keeping us in games most of the time. He finally got burnt out and the team collapsed, even with a fairly healthy roster.

Tampa is a perfect example of how a mediocre defense combined with AHL quality goal-tending can kill a team. They are tied for 3rd offensively as a team, but 26th in goals against.

Our goal-tending is better than theirs, but our defense is even worse than theirs by a fair margin. Oh and our coaching staff is far worse as well.

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04-23-2013, 11:09 PM
  #480
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Originally Posted by Colorado Avalanche View Post
c'mon.

Landeskog, O'Reilly, Duchene, Parenteau you are saying these guys are not top-6 material? Not to mention Stastny. You are just way too negative.
I said this team has 3-4 top 6 forwards. You just named 4 top 6 forwards.

Thank you for proving my point.

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04-23-2013, 11:15 PM
  #481
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
I mean no offense, but I don't see how anyone can believe that the Avs are one UFA player and one draft pick away from 'making runs' next season. Making runs at what? The 9-11 seed playoff bubble?

I do agree with you that the current set of players playing at a much higher level is unlikely if they don't change the coach. A number of players need to up their play.
No kidding.

We are at least a #1/#2 D-man, a top 6 forward as well as at least two more capable D-men away from contending. That is is if Varlamov plays better than a backup of course though.

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04-23-2013, 11:27 PM
  #482
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McGinn and Downie are both top six guys in my book. Gritty complimentary players that mesh well with star players, and put up 40 points. McGinn is scoring at a 20 goal, 40 point pace this year.

Even Stastny is a top six guy. You can't be a bottom six guy if you've always scored at a 50+ PPG average in your career, which he is doing this year as well.

Jones is the only guy that you can't say that about, because he's so inconsistent, and he's had an awful year.

The Avs problem with the Avs forward unit was never the lack of top six forwards, it was the lack of top end skill. Stastny has regressed, and it took until this year for Dutchy and PAP to have PPG averages.

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04-23-2013, 11:35 PM
  #483
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Agreed, top end skill is the problem as we have a number of good complementary guys. We also at this time don't have the prospect depth to step in during times of injury and hence we've had Cody Mcleod and Aaron Palushaj in the top 6 this year. Hopefully the depth issue will be resolved by the time we have a competitive roster and unless we win the lottery the top end skill issue may come a long way this year too. A group of Duchene, Mac/Drouin/Barkov, Landeskog, O'reilly, Stastny, Mcginn, Downie, is a pretty good forward core.

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04-24-2013, 01:59 AM
  #484
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Agreed, top end skill is the problem as we have a number of good complementary guys. We also at this time don't have the prospect depth to step in during times of injury and hence we've had Cody Mcleod and Aaron Palushaj in the top 6 this year. Hopefully the depth issue will be resolved by the time we have a competitive roster and unless we win the lottery the top end skill issue may come a long way this year too. A group of Duchene, Mac/Drouin/Barkov, Landeskog, O'reilly, Stastny, Mcginn, Downie, is a pretty good forward core.
Exactly. If they miss out on Jones, they'll hopefully add a top end skill guy. If they take Jones, they'll likely have to add another top end skill guy at some point, but they'll be able to balance that out with a better D hopefully in the short term, and the final touches will be a forward rather than a D.

This is assuming they have plans on improving the D in addition to Jones, which I feel is essential. I mean are they really going to go with a EJ and an 18 year old Jones, to go along with the talented but not really producing Barrie and Elliott on the back end, as your offensive defenseman?

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04-24-2013, 09:30 AM
  #485
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
McGinn and Downie are both top six guys in my book. Gritty complimentary players that mesh well with star players, and put up 40 points. McGinn is scoring at a 20 goal, 40 point pace this year.
I'm on board with McGinn as a Top 6 guy, but I'm holding off on Downie. He's scored 20 goals once in his career, and that was in '09-10. We'll see. He does show a good combination of physical play and skill.

Plus, he has to show he can stay healthy. He's played over 70 games in a season only twice in his career - NHL or otherwise.

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04-24-2013, 11:21 AM
  #486
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Originally Posted by Heebs21 View Post
I said this team has 3-4 top 6 forwards. You just named 4 top 6 forwards.

Thank you for proving my point.
Nice, you can count. (Sarcasm).

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04-24-2013, 11:35 AM
  #487
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
I'm on board with McGinn as a Top 6 guy, but I'm holding off on Downie. He's scored 20 goals once in his career, and that was in '09-10. We'll see. He does show a good combination of physical play and skill.

Plus, he has to show he can stay healthy. He's played over 70 games in a season only twice in his career - NHL or otherwise.
I'd put Downie on depth chart before McGinn. Downie just needs to stay healthy.

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04-24-2013, 11:43 AM
  #488
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
I think most people are thinking playoffs. 6-8 seed. Which I don't disagree with. This lineup when healthy is actually pretty good forward wise (actually very solid top 9 on paper), and is a solid top 4 veteran D away from being in the playoff picture. Probably the top 4 D and a top 6 LW from being solidly in.
I still maintain that the Avs need EJ/Varlamov playing closer to their potential much more than they need new 2nd pairing/line guys.

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04-24-2013, 12:11 PM
  #489
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
I'm on board with McGinn as a Top 6 guy, but I'm holding off on Downie. He's scored 20 goals once in his career, and that was in '09-10. We'll see. He does show a good combination of physical play and skill.

Plus, he has to show he can stay healthy. He's played over 70 games in a season only twice in his career - NHL or otherwise.
I don't think you can factor in injury concerns, although I agree they are a concern with Downie. Top six is just your capability, not ability to stay healthy.

Downie has shown he can play with Stamkos and O'Reilly quite well, and has point totals of 41 and 46 on his record. Both of which are more than McGinn's career high. It's not all about goals, he's more of a playmaker anyway.

Once you've shown you can break the 40 point pace on a couple occasions and can mesh well with star players, you're a top six guy in my eyes. No question.

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04-24-2013, 05:26 PM
  #490
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McGinn is on the lower tier of 2nd line wingers. He still has room to grow, but the fact is he's kind of just there. He isn't out of place being in the top 6, but realistically he should be on the 3rd line.

He still can become a legit top 6 forward. Downie is better than McGinn in every faucet of the game IMO, minus his shot and temper.

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04-25-2013, 10:58 AM
  #491
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
McGinn and Downie are both top six guys in my book. Gritty complimentary players that mesh well with star players, and put up 40 points. McGinn is scoring at a 20 goal, 40 point pace this year.
I see then more as third line players. Like you said they can be good complimentary guys with star players, but we don't have enough of those. Duchene is the closest we have of a star player.

I wouldn't be very confident if we went next year with our top two lines looking like this:

McGinn - Duchene - PAP
Landeskog - ROR - Downie

That's why i would like to see us draft a forward in the 1st round. Maybe Drouin or MacKinnon would bump one of the two to the third line.

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04-25-2013, 11:35 AM
  #492
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McGinn is on the lower tier of 2nd line wingers. He still has room to grow, but the fact is he's kind of just there. He isn't out of place being in the top 6, but realistically he should be on the 3rd line.

He still can become a legit top 6 forward. Downie is better than McGinn in every faucet of the game IMO, minus his shot and temper.
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Originally Posted by iceberg View Post
I see then more as third line players. Like you said they can be good complimentary guys with star players, but we don't have enough of those. Duchene is the closest we have of a star player.

I wouldn't be very confident if we went next year with our top two lines looking like this:

McGinn - Duchene - PAP
Landeskog - ROR - Downie

That's why i would like to see us draft a forward in the 1st round. Maybe Drouin or MacKinnon would bump one of the two to the third line.
McGinn is scoring at a 20 goal, 40 point pace. Just like he basically did last season (20g 37pts).

Why does that make him a more natural 3rd liner?

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I still maintain that the Avs need EJ/Varlamov playing closer to their potential much more than they need new 2nd pairing/line guys.
They need both unfortunately. Either one by themselves won't do much to help this team.

They need a couple personel changes, and they need their top players to play like their top players.

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04-25-2013, 11:41 AM
  #493
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McGinn is #32 among LWs for points, #23 in goals according to the NHL (which probably isn't 100% accurate with who is exactly playing left wing). I would say that he is pretty solid a top 6 wing.

People have too high of expectations for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd line players. A #1 C hits around 60-70 points, #1W is in the 45-60 range, #2C 45-55, #2W 35-45, #3C 25-35, #3W 15-25. That is the rough normal of what should be expected, anything higher than that would be near the elite category.

Last year the #45 LW (average 2nd line) in points was Carl Haglin with 38 (McGinn was 46 with 37).

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04-25-2013, 12:25 PM
  #494
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
McGinn is scoring at a 20 goal, 40 point pace. Just like he basically did last season (20g 37pts).

Why does that make him a more natural 3rd liner? .
He has average skill level... he has a very good shot, but he is not a good passer or puck handler. We need to add top talent to our top 2 lines, IMO.

I wouldn't mind McGinn in the 1st line IF we had a more talented #2RW, as i wouldn't mind Downie as the #2RW if we had a more talented #1 LW.

McGinn is not the problem, but ideally him or Downie should be on the 3rd line, IMO.

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04-25-2013, 12:33 PM
  #495
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As he is now, McGinn is not the kind of guy you play in a top-6 role if you have depth at the position. I think he's fine on a scoring line, but if the Avalanche deem left wing Jonathan Drouin as their guy in the draft, McGinn is going to get bumped down.

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04-25-2013, 12:35 PM
  #496
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Nice, you can count. (Sarcasm).
And you can count...on me, waiting for you, at the parking lot.

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04-25-2013, 12:49 PM
  #497
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And you can count...on me, waiting for you, at the parking lot.
Sure. Bring it on.

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04-25-2013, 12:50 PM
  #498
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He has average skill level... he has a very good shot, but he is not a good passer or puck handler. We need to add top talent to our top 2 lines, IMO.

I wouldn't mind McGinn in the 1st line IF we had a more talented #2RW, as i wouldn't mind Downie as the #2RW if we had a more talented #1 LW.

McGinn is not the problem, but ideally him or Downie should be on the 3rd line, IMO.
C'mon, that would mean we would have elite offense in this league, If McGinn AND Downie are playing in third line. They are fine.

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04-25-2013, 05:05 PM
  #499
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C'mon, that would mean we would have elite offense in this league, If McGinn AND Downie are playing in third line. They are fine.
And if both are on the top 6 it probably means another year out of the playoffs.

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04-25-2013, 05:09 PM
  #500
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Sure. Bring it on.
Not sure if you were aware that he was quoting the Adam Sandler classic "Happy Gilmore"?

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