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12/13 Draft Thread: The top 5 sucks, late first-round picks rule.

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04-23-2013, 06:43 AM
  #826
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THe Leafs have had a pretty good time in drafting lesser known players. Antropov, Boyes, Raask, Kulemin are players that were not necessarily gift-wrapped for the leafs...some of them like antropov were picked out of nowhere and have had successes comparable to or better than the players drafted close to them.

Remember how Kadri was supposed to be drafted mid to later first round by most scouting agencies?? He is playing either better than or similar to players drafted near him.

Here's to drafting and retaining a gem.
Some had him a little lower, but a good chunk of others had him pretty much where he went. I think Bobby Mac's ratings had him 8th, ISS had him 7th etc.

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04-23-2013, 07:34 AM
  #827
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Some had him a little lower, but a good chunk of others had him pretty much where he went. I think Bobby Mac's ratings had him 8th, ISS had him 7th etc.
Most, from what I remember, did have him 8th. MPS was ranked much higher than where he went and most wanted him, not Kadri

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04-23-2013, 07:42 AM
  #828
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I'd be happy if they pick Fucale if he drops to the Leafs pick. Hoping for Pulock though
I'd love to draft Fucale. He's struggling a bit this round (was pretty bad in the first period Sunday) but 9 goals in the first 8 playoff games. The guy is so mentally tough which might be a good fit here. He is the youngest Q goalie to "x" amount of wins on almost any number you can think of.

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04-23-2013, 08:48 AM
  #829
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A big part of Kessel's game is skating. Kessel is one of the fastest and fluid skaters in the league, Shinkurak on the other hand is not a very good skater.

He does remind me a bit of Kessel but I don't think he'll be even half as good unless his skating improves dramatically.
From the current Hockey News "Future Watch" I found this quote from a scout on Shinkaruk: "He's a highly skilled kid, very explosive skater. His hands are as quick as anyone's in the league."

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04-23-2013, 08:53 AM
  #830
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If you are looking at high risk, high reward players, do they come any more qualified than Petan? For me, unless Shinkaruk or Ristolainen drop, he'd be the guy i'd take. Talent is off the charts, but he's small, which I personally could care less about.

With Kadri and Kessel considered the core peices of our top 6 moving forward, I think we need to draft players with size, to offset the smallish forwards we already have. I'm definately against drafting a small player with our 1st, though I'd make an exception for Drouin who's not as small as Petan.

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04-23-2013, 09:41 AM
  #831
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Leafs look to be in the range of Curtis lazar. Who does he project to be? From the limited times I've seen him he seems to have some Ryan o'riley characteristics. Anyone seen him live?
Dustin Brown (but hits less) or maybe Andrew Ladd. Both these guys were better playmakers their draft years but did not evolve the big offense of someone like an Iginla who was a similar player when selected. I like him more as a prospect than Biggs or Percy in the 20s. Next season when St Croix has moved on he will get the chance to really show his stuff. He is already around 200lbs and will play in the NHL at 205-210. he has good hands too.

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04-23-2013, 09:42 AM
  #832
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I love Pulock, but I would be surprised if he fell to us. Hoping but not expecting it.

I would swing for the fences with Justin Bailey, there's something about this kid that screams massive potential to me. Plus, yes he's a character kid.

So rather than the safe usual names at around 20, Bailey is a guy I would take a shot with. He's the type of boom pick that can make a scout's lifetime rep on.

CRED.
Have you seen enough of him to provide a scouting report?

I looked around and there's mostly articles about him and his way up to the OHL. What I gathered was that scouts like his combination of size and skating, not so much on his offensive skills.

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04-23-2013, 09:58 AM
  #833
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Originally Posted by Sundinisagod View Post
With Kadri and Kessel considered the core peices of our top 6 moving forward, I think we need to draft players with size, to offset the smallish forwards we already have. I'm definately against drafting a small player with our 1st, though I'd make an exception for Drouin who's not as small as Petan.
BPA and if thats him they take him. What happens if he has better offense than Kadri? He could be Danny Briere, Marty St Louis etc. His skills are top notch and the size is the only reason they get a wiff. Ray Whitney was about that big his draft year.

I do agree in a perfect world they need some size. While I was puzzling over what they might do with Bozak I came to the realization that while he isn't huge or a bruiser the real reason they never tried Grabo with Phil might be they are desperate to have a body to offset Phil's soft game. Same reason they never added someone like Cammy at the deadline. Phil is that soft that they need someone who isn't small and can hit and dig a bit. Kadri is small but he is Bryan Trottier compared to Kessel, and Bozak is a lot bigger than NK. But if they draft Lazar or Gauthier there is no guarantee they will be skilled enough to ever play with Kessel. All things being equal, take a big forward, but projects are for the late rounds. Usually one prospect is well ahead of the others by the time they pick that late. I thibnk they would find a way to fit a St Louis into the lineup.

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04-23-2013, 10:49 AM
  #834
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Originally Posted by nuck View Post
BPA and if thats him they take him. What happens if he has better offense than Kadri? He could be Danny Briere, Marty St Louis etc. His skills are top notch and the size is the only reason they get a wiff. Ray Whitney was about that big his draft year.

I do agree in a perfect world they need some size. While I was puzzling over what they might do with Bozak I came to the realization that while he isn't huge or a bruiser the real reason they never tried Grabo with Phil might be they are desperate to have a body to offset Phil's soft game. Same reason they never added someone like Cammy at the deadline. Phil is that soft that they need someone who isn't small and can hit and dig a bit. Kadri is small but he is Bryan Trottier compared to Kessel, and Bozak is a lot bigger than NK. But if they draft Lazar or Gauthier there is no guarantee they will be skilled enough to ever play with Kessel. All things being equal, take a big forward, but projects are for the late rounds. Usually one prospect is well ahead of the others by the time they pick that late. I thibnk they would find a way to fit a St Louis into the lineup.
Lazar really isn't a big forward. He's solid at 190, but he's only 6 feet tall.

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04-23-2013, 11:54 AM
  #835
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I really want one of Alex Wennberg, Horvat, Robert Hagg, or Mirco Mueller with our first. I love their upside more than most between 10-25.

I'd be interested in Zykov, Klimchuk, Mantha, and Morrissey as well.

To a lesser extent I have interest in Pulock, Rychel and Gauthier.

But I'd want the first four I mentioned first I think.

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04-23-2013, 12:38 PM
  #836
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Morgan Klimchuk anyone?

He's growing on me. Also, keep an eye out for Juuse Saros. The guy will be a blue-chip goaltending prospect who should go in the 1st but if he falls to the 2nd round, he'd be a great pick.

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04-23-2013, 12:59 PM
  #837
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Originally Posted by nuck View Post
BPA and if thats him they take him. What happens if he has better offense than Kadri? He could be Danny Briere, Marty St Louis etc. His skills are top notch and the size is the only reason they get a wiff. Ray Whitney was about that big his draft year.

I do agree in a perfect world they need some size. While I was puzzling over what they might do with Bozak I came to the realization that while he isn't huge or a bruiser the real reason they never tried Grabo with Phil might be they are desperate to have a body to offset Phil's soft game. Same reason they never added someone like Cammy at the deadline. Phil is that soft that they need someone who isn't small and can hit and dig a bit. Kadri is small but he is Bryan Trottier compared to Kessel, and Bozak is a lot bigger than NK. But if they draft Lazar or Gauthier there is no guarantee they will be skilled enough to ever play with Kessel. All things being equal, take a big forward, but projects are for the late rounds. Usually one prospect is well ahead of the others by the time they pick that late. I thibnk they would find a way to fit a St Louis into the lineup.

What is BPA really? It's projecting who will be the the best player in the NHL, not who's BPA at their current level, correct? Petan was measured at 5' 8.25" recently, and isn't considered stocky. Guys like St Louis are an exception, not the standard when it comes to smaller players panning out. In a weak draft, I'd be open to drafting him in the late first round, this year, not so much.

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04-23-2013, 03:32 PM
  #838
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Originally Posted by Sundinisagod View Post
What is BPA really? It's projecting who will be the the best player in the NHL, not who's BPA at their current level, correct? Petan was measured at 5' 8.25" recently, and isn't considered stocky. Guys like St Louis are an exception, not the standard when it comes to smaller players panning out. In a weak draft, I'd be open to drafting him in the late first round, this year, not so much.
Are they anymore likely to pan out than a 6 foot player or a 6 foot 3 player though?

I wonder if they are any more or less likely to be succesful NHL players than a player of any other type.

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04-23-2013, 05:19 PM
  #839
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Have you seen enough of him to provide a scouting report?

I looked around and there's mostly articles about him and his way up to the OHL. What I gathered was that scouts like his combination of size and skating, not so much on his offensive skills.
Justin Bailey, this is a heady projection, but he reminds me of Ryan Getzlaf in the way he moves out there and his physical tools. He's a Center that played mostly wing this year due to Kitchener's depth at C, I think when Spott moves him back to the middle you will really see a boost in his production.

So while his stats were not overwhelming this year there are circumstances to this, Spott runs a defensive system for one, there was only one PPG player on the team for the entire year.

Given all this, if we pick 20-22, I would take a flyer on Justin and bet the farm he will have a break through year next year.

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04-23-2013, 05:25 PM
  #840
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I'm going to keep an eye on Niagara Ice Dogs centreman Carter Verhaeghe in the 2nd-4th rounds.

I got to see a couple Ice Dogs games this year and he's one of those guys that you can tell has the smarts for the game and has the size to go along with it. He's going to be relied upon in the next couple years with Strome and Ritchie moving on to AHL/NHL, but he's going to do very well. He's a smart 2 way hockey player and will be a very solid pro.

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04-23-2013, 05:51 PM
  #841
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Justin Bailey, this is a heady projection, but he reminds me of Ryan Getzlaf in the way he moves out there and his physical tools. He's a Center that played mostly wing this year due to Kitchener's depth at C, I think when Spott moves him back to the middle you will really see a boost in his production.

So while his stats were not overwhelming this year there are circumstances to this, Spott runs a defensive system for one, there was only one PPG player on the team for the entire year.

Given all this, if we pick 20-22, I would take a flyer on Justin and bet the farm he will have a break through year next year.
Where we currently are in 20-22 area is a bit high for Bailey at this moment, I love the skill and size package; I saw him quite a bit especially down the stretch with Kitchener while watching Leivo, But he's had some injury issues to his upper body that need to be taken into account, And also who may still be on the board when we pick.

In an ideal situation if Bailey was their guy, A trade down to 27-32 spot, Pick him, Then pick another 2nd or 3rd.

That's just me. I do like the player though.

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04-23-2013, 06:13 PM
  #842
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Very simply put, you don't take second round production with a first round pick, on a hunch.

There will be more than enough talent on the board available to us, to make a trade down to take a flyer on a kid with a second round draft grade.

There are any number of players who are visibly and statistically better, where we're picking. If we move up some with our second in order to grab Bailey, fine, but to use our first like that is reckless and defies reason.

What would be the use in taking Bailey, when say..... Rychel is on the board? Rychel is a high potential player, with a history of solid production, no injury history, and played on a considerably worse team. He's a guy who was thrust into a leadership role, and expected to carry the mail, which he did. There is just ZERO sense in that. The same would go for a player like Shinkaruk, or Hagg.... Do you pass on their evident skill and potential for a guy like Bailey? The answer should be easy.

Again, if he's there in the 2nd round, and our scouts see him as a better option than one of the solid goalie prospects, or a guy like Dano/Duclair (if he slides), then hey, have a go. Not in the late teens/early twenties though. That's ridiculous.

Also, if he doesn't learn to keep his bloody head up, he won't have much potential left among the mush. 1:40 of the vid tells the story.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ilBmvmoehs


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04-23-2013, 06:31 PM
  #843
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Horvat has scored 2 SH goals in a row tonight. Hopefully we can pick him up

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04-23-2013, 06:51 PM
  #844
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Very simply put, you don't take second round production with a first round pick, on a hunch.

There will be more than enough talent on the board available to us, to make a trade down to take a flyer on a kid with a second round draft grade.

There are any number of players who are visibly and statistically better, where we're picking. If we move up some with our second in order to grab Bailey, fine, but to use our first like that is reckless and defies reason.

What would be the use in taking Bailey, when say..... Rychel is on the board? Rychel is a high potential player, with a history of solid production, no injury history, and played on a considerably worse team. He's a guy who was thrust into a leadership role, and expected to carry the mail, which he did. There is just ZERO sense in that. The same would go for a player like Shinkaruk, or Hagg.... Do you pass on their evident skill and potential for a guy like Bailey? The answer should be easy.

Again, if he's there in the 2nd round, and our scouts see him as a better option than one of the solid goalie prospects, or a guy like Dano/Duclair (if he slides), then hey, have a go. Not in the late teens/early twenties though. That's ridiculous.

Also, if he doesn't learn to keep his bloody head up, he won't have much potential left among the mush. 1:40 of the vid tells the story.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ilBmvmoehs
I haven't followed the Spits as closely as I have in the past this year, but all I can say is if Rychel is still on the board for us at our pick we had damn well better be picking him up.

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04-23-2013, 06:55 PM
  #845
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I haven't followed the Spits as closely as I have in the past this year, but all I can say is if Rychel is still on the board for us at our pick we had damn well better be picking him up.
He's got pretty much everything this team is in need of. Good size, solid offensive upside, he's physical, he'll come back and play in his own end.

He's a PF with solid top-6 potential. Having Biggs on the wing on the 3rd/4th line, and a guy like Rychel there to play with Kadri, we have good size on all lines moving forward, with JVR up top.

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04-23-2013, 07:02 PM
  #846
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Horvat has scored 2 SH goals in a row tonight. Hopefully we can pick him up
I was coming to say that Both SH goals were on the same PK I believe.

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04-23-2013, 07:02 PM
  #847
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Originally Posted by ErnieLeafs View Post
Very simply put, you don't take second round production with a first round pick, on a hunch.

There will be more than enough talent on the board available to us, to make a trade down to take a flyer on a kid with a second round draft grade.

There are any number of players who are visibly and statistically better, where we're picking. If we move up some with our second in order to grab Bailey, fine, but to use our first like that is reckless and defies reason.

What would be the use in taking Bailey, when say..... Rychel is on the board? Rychel is a high potential player, with a history of solid production, no injury history, and played on a considerably worse team. He's a guy who was thrust into a leadership role, and expected to carry the mail, which he did. There is just ZERO sense in that. The same would go for a player like Shinkaruk, or Hagg.... Do you pass on their evident skill and potential for a guy like Bailey? The answer should be easy.

Again, if he's there in the 2nd round, and our scouts see him as a better option than one of the solid goalie prospects, or a guy like Dano/Duclair (if he slides), then hey, have a go. Not in the late teens/early twenties though. That's ridiculous.

Also, if he doesn't learn to keep his bloody head up, he won't have much potential left among the mush. 1:40 of the vid tells the story.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ilBmvmoehs
I'm not sure you can say that, We did a similar thing when we took Percy two drafts ago. So I thing it's a case by case situation.

There's a lot to like about Bailey, But as you said he has his warts. But so does Rychel, The main thing for me is the jump in production once Khokhlachev re-joined the team.

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04-23-2013, 07:16 PM
  #848
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I'm not sure you can say that, We did a similar thing when we took Percy two drafts ago. So I thing it's a case by case situation.

There's a lot to like about Bailey, But as you said he has his warts. But so does Rychel, The main thing for me is the jump in production once Khokhlachev re-joined the team.
But he already showed he could score without him. Anyone would see a jump in production with a guy as skilled as Koko next to them. Koko's return bolstered Rychel's confidence even higher than it was, an it showed on the ice. He was also MORE physical with Koko back, because he was in whoever's face that got after Alex.

And base on that, it also stands to reason that he could be highly productive beside a guy like Kadri. Having a solid playmaker who creates space is great for a player like Rychel, who projects as a 2nd line, scoring PF.

There is a toolbox there with Bailey, and a good shot, but he has the concussion to his name, and is REALLY raw. He also doesn't play a physical game.

I'm okay with him in the 2nd, but wouldn't even consider it, unless we win the cup.

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04-23-2013, 07:17 PM
  #849
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I'm not sure you can say that, We did a similar thing when we took Percy two drafts ago. So I thing it's a case by case situation.

There's a lot to like about Bailey, But as you said he has his warts. But so does Rychel, The main thing for me is the jump in production once Khokhlachev re-joined the team.
Yep, it's a case by case basis. You don't paint every prospect as a black or white, you look at projection from the player, every case is different. All prospects that have slid into the 20's will have warts. Some realize this, some don't and some will never.

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04-23-2013, 07:23 PM
  #850
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Where we currently are in 20-22 area is a bit high for Bailey at this moment, I love the skill and size package; I saw him quite a bit especially down the stretch with Kitchener while watching Leivo, But he's had some injury issues to his upper body that need to be taken into account, And also who may still be on the board when we pick.

In an ideal situation if Bailey was their guy, A trade down to 27-32 spot, Pick him, Then pick another 2nd or 3rd.

That's just me. I do like the player though.
You never know with a trade down if the player will still be there, if our scouts really like the player they should not risk it.

I think I made a good case for Bailey and you agreed which is nice, there is something impressive about the kid that isn't obvious, as say what Rychel is, really we need progressive scouts here that don't make obvious picks, a monkey can pick Rychel's name off a logical list. It takes a really good eye to swing for the fences, Bailey has been carefully hidden in Kitchener this year, yes he was hurt, but there were other factors that hid his talent. I think next year with many Rangers graduating, it will be his team.

Not the obvious pick, but again I always strive to go beyond the obvious simple picks here. I really believe in Bailey, we will see what Mo does this draft. I think he will also love Hartman if we are picking in that spot. Will be interesting if both are still on the board.

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