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Who is this years disappointment?

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09-22-2003, 11:19 AM
  #1
triggrman
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Who is this years disappointment?

Last year Delmore in the second half, Johnson some, Erat and Yachmenev were all huge let downs. Who will it be this year?

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09-22-2003, 11:23 AM
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Originally Posted by triggrman
Last year Delmore in the second half, Johnson some, Erat and Yachmenev were all huge let downs. Who will it be this year?
Erat if he makes this team. AJ could have a letdown...but I hope not. I hope Hall continues to improve.

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09-22-2003, 11:45 AM
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Personally, I'm not expecting much from Erat. Mostly due to his performance last season. Therefore, I wouldn't consider it a disappointment if he didn't perform.

I think the guy with the biggest boom/bust potential is either Kloucek or Zidlicky.

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09-22-2003, 12:11 PM
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All I can say is......if it's Vokoun...We are in deep doo doo.

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09-22-2003, 12:29 PM
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personally, i think that Hall will have a sophomore slump...and Arkhipov isn't going to bounce back, and will have, at best, another 12-15 goal year.

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09-22-2003, 02:15 PM
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I hate to say it but I think Upshall might be a disappointment. He just hasn't looked great so far and I'm worried he might have a disappointing few games in the NHL this year.

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09-22-2003, 02:55 PM
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Upshall/Arkhipov/Lasak

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09-22-2003, 03:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
I hate to say it but I think Upshall might be a disappointment. He just hasn't looked great so far and I'm worried he might have a disappointing few games in the NHL this year.
i agree that he's probably going to end up spending the year in milwaukee(which, in itself, is a disappointment,) but i think the expectations on him are a bit lower to begin with, as he IS still a rookie. like i said, i think hall will drop a bit...but i think that arkhipov's first good season was somewhat of a fluke.

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09-22-2003, 03:46 PM
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Legwand. Offensive comparisons to Mike Modano are way off base. I think his offensive upside is more like Radek Bonk. I don't see his production rate improving from last season, and that's assuming he continues to get 19+ minutes of quality ice time (no PK time, oodles of PP time). If he doens't get the same quantity and quality ice time, I see more of a Marty Reasoner-type year from him.

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09-22-2003, 03:54 PM
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Much of this year's disappointments and surpirses will be based on ice time. In 2002, when Hartnell was such a big "surprise", he was getting quality ice time with talented players, including powerplay time. In 2003, when he was a "disappointment", he was getting 3rd line ice time with only a touch of powerplay time.

In 2002, when Legwand was considered a "disappointment" he was getting 3rd line ice time with occasional powerplay time. In 2003, when he was considered a "surpise," he was getting oodles of ice time and powerplay time with talented players.

In 2002, when Erat considered a "surprise", he was atleast getting some ice time with talented linemates. In 2003, when Erat was considered a "disappointment", he was getting ice time with the likes of Pederson, Wilm, and Simpson. The time he got with Arkhipov was usually on the occasional powerplay, and surprisingly enough, he was the team's most productive point producer on th powerplay (points per powerplay mintues).

In 2002, when Johansson wasn't doing much, he wasn't getting much quality ice time. In 2003, when he was doing something, he was getting quality and quanity ice time.

Etc, etc, etc.

Ice time is huge.

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09-22-2003, 04:09 PM
  #11
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no one



ok well.... Hall

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09-22-2003, 04:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
Much of this year's disappointments and surpirses will be based on ice time. In 2002, when Hartnell was such a big "surprise", he was getting quality ice time with talented players, including powerplay time. In 2003, when he was a "disappointment", he was getting 3rd line ice time with only a touch of powerplay time.

In 2002, when Legwand was considered a "disappointment" he was getting 3rd line ice time with occasional powerplay time. In 2003, when he was considered a "surpise," he was getting oodles of ice time and powerplay time with talented players.

In 2002, when Erat considered a "surprise", he was atleast getting some ice time with talented linemates. In 2003, when Erat was considered a "disappointment", he was getting ice time with the likes of Pederson, Wilm, and Simpson. The time he got with Arkhipov was usually on the occasional powerplay, and surprisingly enough, he was the team's most productive point producer on th powerplay (points per powerplay mintues).

In 2002, when Johansson wasn't doing much, he wasn't getting much quality ice time. In 2003, when he was doing something, he was getting quality and quanity ice time.

Etc, etc, etc.

Ice time is huge.
I think I can agree with your point, if you are saying it matters much more who your ice time is with than how much you get.

That said, I think the quality of the depth on the Preds is slowly increasing such that it should become less of a factor as time goes on and the quality talent recruited by the team begins to outweigh the 'left over' pieces you start a franchise with.

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09-22-2003, 04:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
Legwand. Offensive comparisons to Mike Modano are way off base. I think his offensive upside is more like Radek Bonk. I don't see his production rate improving from last season, and that's assuming he continues to get 19+ minutes of quality ice time (no PK time, oodles of PP time). If he doens't get the same quantity and quality ice time, I see more of a Marty Reasoner-type year from him.

I hate to do this Dulzhok as I do like you, but I've got to shoot you down here. Bonk is a 23 goal, 38 assist (taking his 4 best years and averaging it out) player who plays good defense. Legwand last year had 18 goals and 31 assists. Averaged out to a full season, Legwand would have had 22 goals and 40 assists. Are you telling me that Legwand has maxed out his abilities? Bonk recieved around 17:30 minutes of ice time per game (similar to Legwand's 19 minutes). He also received 4 minutes of PP time; Legwand received around 4:30. Keeping in mind that Bonk is surrounded by talent that the Predators just don't have (like Marian Hossa), it's easy to see that Legwand is already (atleast offensively) on par with Radek age 24-27. And Legwand just turned 23. I would imagine that when he hits the age group I've selected for Radek, he will be a far superior player both offensively and defensively.

His offense is Radek Bonk. His upside is Mike Modano. Will he achieve Modano status? No idea, but he's already at Bonk. And he's got alot of growing to do.

Needless to say, you don't want me to touch that Reasoner comparo.

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09-22-2003, 04:58 PM
  #14
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I see it as being tough for Hall to be a disapointment, being that we shouldn't really expect any more than 20 or so goals from him throughout the course of any season. He is very streaky, and is more of a junk goal guy, who benefits from linemates that put shots on net. That being said, he is good for 15-20 a year depending on his mates performance. He is a good power forward, in that he can make things happen just by taking up space and being a big beast.

I don't know, its too hard to predict a slumper...I'd say Tootoo has a lot of a hype right now, so if he doesn't do as every one has said he would, maybe he stands a high chance of it. Same goes with Zids and Kloucek, who is as we all know, pretty fragile for a big guy. Brittle bones may get the best of him.

As for Legwand, I have no reason to believe that he won't keep putting up better numbers, for a couple of season I hope. He has just gotten better and better, and knows that Poile isn't a GIANT pushover when it comes to contracts.

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09-22-2003, 05:46 PM
  #15
dulzhok
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Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
I hate to do this Dulzhok as I do like you, but I've got to shoot you down here. Bonk is a 23 goal, 38 assist (taking his 4 best years and averaging it out) player who plays good defense. Legwand last year had 18 goals and 31 assists. Averaged out to a full season, Legwand would have had 22 goals and 40 assists.
First of all, Bonk didnt' play a full season season himself. His carreer year, last year, he scored 25g, 45a, 70p with good, but not great ice time (17:50TOI/g, 3:10pptoi/g). So I don't consider the Bonk comparison as a critical one.

Secondly, Legwand, despite playing in 9 less games than Bonk , still had more total time played than Bonk.... more total time, and more powerplay time. So Bonk did produce more with less time last year than Legwand.

All stats aside, I really do see Reasoner and Legwand as somewhat similar players (fast playmaking center, average shot, defensively aware, good but not dominate offensive abilities). Stats considered, Reasoner had 31 points last year. Looking deeper, he had 200 less minutes of ice time than legwand. And the real kicker... he had 180 less minutes of powerplay time than Legwand. In addition, he was a regular on the penalty kill (time you can't score). I do think that Reasoner could've put up similar points given the opportunity that Legwand got this year.

RE: Modano.... I do not think that Legwand has the dominant offensive skills that Modano has. Modano has a world class shot. Legwand's shot is pretty mediocre. Modano can simply do dominmating things with the puck. While Legwand ranks good in this category, he doesn't have the dominant ability that Modano has, IMO.

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09-22-2003, 06:59 PM
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yeah but look who legwand plays on the powerplay with versus Ottawa.....

also, you just mentioned that quality and quantity are important. Legwand may get quantity, but he certainly doesn't have anywhere near the quality of Bonk, who has an all star defense and all star linemates playing with him Legwand spent a lot of time digging the puck out of hisown end b/c our defense was so bad last year. Cut the guy some slack, and try not to be so pessimistic :mad:

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09-22-2003, 07:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
First of all, Bonk didnt' play a full season season himself. His carreer year, last year, he scored 25g, 45a, 70p with good, but not great ice time (17:50TOI/g, 3:10pptoi/g). So I don't consider the Bonk comparison as a critical one.

First things first, in the career year you are referring to, Radek Bonk played 1472:25 minutes and had 265:51 minutes of PP time. Legwand, in his career year had 1231:16 minutes and 301:17 of PP time. Bonk was 26, Legwand was 22.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
Secondly, Legwand, despite playing in 9 less games than Bonk , still had more total time played than Bonk.... more total time, and more powerplay time. So Bonk did produce more with less time last year than Legwand.
Last year Legwand played in 6 less games than Bonk (64 compared to 72). Bottom line is the Bonk comparison falls well short. I understand where you are coming from here but statistical analysis goes a long, long way towards destroying that notion. Once again, you are veiwing this in a vacuum. Does than name Marian Hossa mean anything? Legwand didn't even have steady linemates throughout the year.


Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
All stats aside, I really do see Reasoner and Legwand as somewhat similar players (fast playmaking center, average shot, defensively aware, good but not dominate offensive abilities). Stats considered, Reasoner had 31 points last year. Looking deeper, he had 200 less minutes of ice time than legwand. And the real kicker... he had 180 less minutes of powerplay time than Legwand. In addition, he was a regular on the penalty kill (time you can't score). I do think that Reasoner could've put up similar points given the opportunity that Legwand got this year.
I disagree. Reasoner is not a very good hockey player. There is a reason he had so little ice time last year. He was behind Marchant, Comrie, and York. His numbers are OK, but not good. And in Edmonton's offensive system (compared to Nashville), he's numbers really glare at you. Legwand is a superior player now and will likely continue to be. Your last sentence kills me. If that was true, surely one of the 30 GM's (and the 90+ coaches and the 200+ scouts and...) in the league would have picked up on it, made Reasoner their 1st or 2nd line center and made him a player again. Since that obviously didn't happen, I don't see where you have a leg to stand. As pig headed as I am, even I wouldn't dare to think I am smarter than all those listed earlier.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
RE: Modano.... I do not think that Legwand has the dominant offensive skills that Modano has. Modano has a world class shot. Legwand's shot is pretty mediocre. Modano can simply do dominmating things with the puck. While Legwand ranks good in this category, he doesn't have the dominant ability that Modano has, IMO.
I have to disagree here as well. Legwand actually has a very good shot. Very, very underrated simply because he just doesn't use it. The problem here is that Modano and Legwand (if he acheives Modano's level) will be taking completely different paths and, as such, it throws people off. Modano started off all offense and learned defense. Legwand is starting off all defense and developing the offense. He's got as good a shot as there is on the Predators (ask Denis about it) and he is only going to get better as he uses it more.

It's obvious you don't like Legwand. You are allowing this bias to permeate would would be rational thought. I am a converted Legwand fan. I used to dislike the kid, but after watching him last year, I realized some of the things that you haven't. He does have a good shot, he does try 100% and he's a helluva lot better player than the numbers show.

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09-22-2003, 07:24 PM
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I think the most important thing is that he made the players around him better last year. A.J. anyone....who would have though he was on pace to hit 30 before his injury

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09-23-2003, 01:16 AM
  #19
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Originally Posted by Enoch
I think the most important thing is that he made the players around him better last year. A.J. anyone....who would have though he was on pace to hit 30 before his injury
That's my whole deal with Legwand he does make the players around him better. Walker's best years, Legwand was his center, Hartnell's best runs, Legwand was his center, AJ's best season, Legwand was his center.

Now on to Arkhipov. Last year was a slump period. He is loaded with offensive skills 20+ goal season should be the norm for him not the exception.

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09-23-2003, 02:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
Legwand. Offensive comparisons to Mike Modano are way off base. I think his offensive upside is more like Radek Bonk. I don't see his production rate improving from last season, and that's assuming he continues to get 19+ minutes of quality ice time (no PK time, oodles of PP time). If he doens't get the same quantity and quality ice time, I see more of a Marty Reasoner-type year from him.
Geez, what is it with you and Legwand? Did he run over your cat or something? This guy finally is playing up to his potential. Whose going to take PP time away from him on the roster?

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09-23-2003, 03:32 AM
  #21
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Zidlicky, Upshall (if one assumes being in Milwaukee is a "dissapointment" or "bust"), Arky (If one believes that he's actually a 20+ goal scorer...I STILL think orszagh is the scorer in waiting on that line).

Legwand will either be a huge dissapointment, or a pleasent surprise. I expect either 30 or 3 out of him...not sure which.

I'm not sure Vokoun CAN be anything other than a dissapointment. If he "merely" repeats last year's performance, he'll be a top 10 goaltender and STILL considered a "dissapointment" by some who would demand that he step his game up even more.

And finally, on the flip side, I have this gut feeling that Adam Hall is going to surprise a LOT of people.

/bc

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09-23-2003, 05:50 AM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BluesConvert
I'm not sure Vokoun CAN be anything other than a dissapointment. If he "merely" repeats last year's performance, he'll be a top 10 goaltender and STILL considered a "dissapointment" by some who would demand that he step his game up even more.
/bc

I expect some improvement from Vokoun. He is only 26 after all. Many good goalies have really escalated their game once they hit their late 20's. No reason to think that Vokoun can't do just that.

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09-23-2003, 06:14 AM
  #23
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Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
I expect some improvement from Vokoun. He is only 26 after all. Many good goalies have really escalated their game once they hit their late 20's. No reason to think that Vokoun can't do just that.
Good point, Smokey. And, personally, I agree...it wouldn't be at all surprising to see him step his game up, heading INTO a season knowing he's the go to guy. And, as you point out, his age suggests the time is right.

I think, however, what I meant to suggest was that there are those who expect so much out of him after last year's performance, that I don't think it's POSSIBLE (Ok..maybe a Vezina trophy and Playoff MVP award might do it) to put up the numbers it'd take to avoid being called a "dissapointment", at least by some.

This is especially maginified by the fact that a significant chunk of the Preds' success (or failure) will be pinned on Vokoun. We sure aren't gonna just outgun a lot of teams, and the Defense, while probably better than most think, isn't going to be "shutting down" the likes of Colorado or Detroit every night. As a result, Vokoun will be asked to steal a fair chunk of our games. If he fails to do so, even GREAT numbers will be overlooked by many, and thus lead, imo, to his year being labeled a "dissapointment" by the media and many fans.

Understand, I'm not predicting a bad year for him. Again, I agree with you...I think he can and WILL step up this season, and turn in even better numbers than last year. I just don't think there's ANYTHING, short of GREAT numbers and a playoff run, that will keep him from being LABELED a dissapointment.

/bc

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09-23-2003, 10:02 AM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
First things first, in the career year you are referring to, Radek Bonk played 1472:25 minutes and had 265:51 minutes of PP time. Legwand, in his career year had 1231:16 minutes and 301:17 of PP time. Bonk was 26, Legwand was 22.
When Bonk was Legwand's age ('99-'00), he put up 23g,37a,60points. So it brings up the question-- does one automatically assume that a player's point production will increase with age? Bonk has stayed at more or less the same level for the past 4 years. Other people, like Jason Arnott, have dropped off considerably as their age has increased. Arnott scored 33 goals his rookie year, and hasn't hit 30 since. So I don't think that you can automically assume that one's point production will increase with age.
Quote:
I disagree. Reasoner is not a very good hockey player. There is a reason he had so little ice time last year. He was behind Marchant, Comrie, and York. His numbers are OK, but not good. And in Edmonton's offensive system (compared to Nashville), he's numbers really glare at you. Legwand is a superior player now and will likely continue to be. Your last sentence kills me. If that was true, surely one of the 30 GM's (and the 90+ coaches and the 200+ scouts and...) in the league would have picked up on it, made Reasoner their 1st or 2nd line center and made him a player again.
Reasoner IS a good hockey player. The same 90+ coaches and 200+ scouts that didn't pick him up in the wavier draft, are the same 90+ coaches and 200+ scouts that overlooked guys like Martin St.Louis, Eric Bougnecki, Todd White, etc. Reasoner played well this year, especially considering his limited ice time. Ask any Edmonton fan. I guarantee that he wouldn't pass through waviers now. Similarly, Legwand played well this year, BUT, I don't see him turning into the "great" player people are projecting him to be.

I'm not basing my opinion on numbers. I'm basing it on what I see. I just don't see any dominant qualities in Legwand. I disagree that he has a "great" shot. He has absoutley NO slapshot. I don't think he's ever scored a one-time goal in his life. He can't get off his wrist shot unless he has a lot of room and space. I'd say that Johansson, Arkhipov, and Hartnell all have better shots. IMO, a number of Legwand's goals last year were due to "good bounces." His puck control skills are average, the most noteable weakness being his propensity to get knocked off the puck easily. His one-on-one skills aren't anywhere close to "dominant."

On the other hand, I believe Modano to be a dominant player. His shot is lethal. He can get it off in hardly anytime at all. His one-timer is deadly. It's extremely hard to get the puck away from him. He has excellent puck control skills. He's not knocked off the puck easily. His one-on-one moves are game-breaking.

You have your right to your opinion, as I do to mine. I really do think that Legwand will eventually be labeled as a disappointment by Predator fans. Not that he won't be a good hockey player, but that he will never be the game-breaking, dominant player many are projecting him to be.

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09-23-2003, 10:18 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BluesConvert
Arky (If one believes that he's actually a 20+ goal scorer).
I definitely believe that he the ability to be a 20 goal scorer. In fact, I beleive he has the ability to be a 35 goal scorer. He was extremely snake-bitten last year, but he still has the goal scoring skills. My biggest question concerning him is does he have the passion? Can he fight through physcial play and pursue loose pucks with agression? I really don't know.

But statistically, his 20 goal season in 2002 was the "most efficient" goal scoring we've seen in Predator's history. When guys like Kjellberg and Krivokrasov had 20 goal seasons, they were getting 1st unit powerplay time and ample ice time. When Arky scored 20, he did it will secondary powerplay time and average ice time (15 minutes a game).

I know Arkhipov has it in him. He's just got to start playing fire.

If he plays with passion, I think he will have an excellent season this year. If he doesn't, and he floats around and shakes his head when he doesn't score, I would expect more or less of the same as last season.

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