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05-07-2013, 06:38 PM
  #651
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Looking across our division next year, some of the teams we'll be lining up against will kick our ass. Affording Cooper time to instil a team toughness mentality will help significantly, but with Boston we'll have to deal with Lucic, Chara, Marchand, Ference, Seidenberg, McQuaid, Boychuk and S.Thornton, with Toronto there's Orr, Fraser, McLaren, Phaneuf, Franson and Komarov, and with Ottawa there's Neil, Cowen, Gryba, Methot, M.Kassian, Z.Smith, Greening and Phillips. Even Montreal at least has Moen, Prust, Tinordi, Subban, R.White and Emelin (he's not a good fighter).

Speaking of which, Franson is a very intriguing option we could pursue. Unfortunately, we'd be trading within our division but he's a right handed top 4 dman who's very physical and reliable in his own end. He also offers us another good option offensively from the back end.


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05-07-2013, 10:11 PM
  #652
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I would do it, because it would help us, but it would really be though to see Panik go out of the org.
Well, same with us with Stone, whose development has certainly passed expectations and still has upside, especially if he continues improving his skating. But it does help both teams.

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05-08-2013, 01:16 AM
  #653
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Well, same with us with Stone, whose development has certainly passed expectations and still has upside, especially if he continues improving his skating. But it does help both teams.
Yeah I know, it would be a great trade for both teams.

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05-08-2013, 01:30 AM
  #654
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No offense to Stone but doesn't he lack physicality considering his size? I remember that was the knock on him when he was drafted but that he was a smooth, composed defenseman with good two-way ability.

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05-08-2013, 01:38 AM
  #655
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No offense to Stone but doesn't he lack physicality considering his size? I remember that was the knock on him when he was drafted but that he was a smooth, composed defenseman with good two-way ability.
Not sure if 89 hits and 64 blocked shots are bad for a rookie defender in 40 games? IMO this is pretty impressive and the numbers will grow.

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05-08-2013, 08:43 AM
  #656
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Not sure if 89 hits and 64 blocked shots are bad for a rookie defender in 40 games? IMO this is pretty impressive and the numbers will grow.
Cited by themselves, these hits and blocked shot totals don't really tell us much. Neither hits nor blocked shots are necessarily reliable indicators of a player's value. Both are events that occur when the other club is possessing the puck, so we need more context: time on ice, hit and blocked shot totals relative to other defensemen on his team as well as, in the case of blocked shots, the game state they occurred. In short, we need to understand his usage.

In regards to hitting: is Stone a player who made a lot of contact despite limited ice time and as his side carried the balance of play he was on the ice (more impressive) or did he play a lot of minutes and the other team had possession more often than not while he was on the ice which resulted in a higher hit count (less impressive)? Are those recording the hits in Phoenix more generous or a bit more stingy in crediting them than their league counterparts? (A significant problem with hits is the reliability of totals as they are subject to a lot of interpretation by those recording them; the same game could be played in each rink and the hit counts would have significant variance).

Now, blocking shots definitely has value--especially when killing penalties--but also needs context. When a player racks up a lot of blocked shots during 5v5 play, it may be a byproduct of spending the balance of action in his own end and you'd want to know how opposing teams did with other shot events (those that became goals, were saved or were missed). Of course, if a player's 5v5 possession (Fenwick/Corsi) rates lag, we'd want to gauge how he stacked up relative to his teammates that played the same position.

Perhaps the the totals you've cited are encouraging but, really, you've painted too narrow a picture.


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05-08-2013, 09:35 AM
  #657
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Cited by themselves, these hits and blocked shot totals don't really tell us much. Neither hits nor blocked shots are necessarily reliable indicators of a player's value. Both are events that occur when the other club is possessing the puck, so we need more context: time on ice, hit and blocked shot totals relative to other defensemen on his team as well as, in the case of blocked shots, the game state they occurred. In short, we need to understand his usage.

In regards to hitting: is Stone a player who made a lot of contact despite limited ice time and as his side carried the balance of play he was on the ice (more impressive) or did he play a lot of minutes and the other team had possession more often than not while he was on the ice which resulted in a higher hit count (less impressive)? Are those recording the hits in Phoenix more generous or a bit more stingy in crediting them than their league counterparts? (A significant problem with hits is the reliability of totals as they are subject to a lot of interpretation by those recording them; the same game could be played in each rink and the hit counts would have significant variance).

Now, blocking shots definitely has value--especially when killing penalties--but also needs context. When a player racks up a lot of blocked shots during 5v5 play, it may be a byproduct of spending the balance of action in his own end and you'd want to know how opposing teams did with other shot events (those that became goals, were saved or were missed). Of course, if a player's 5v5 possession (Fenwick/Corsi) rates lag, we'd want to gauge how he stacked up relative to his teammates that played the same position.

Perhaps the the totals you've cited are encouraging but, really, you've painted too narrow a picture.
All right, I have some time, so I will make the little research.

He was 7th in TOI/g on the PHX defense (with 16:41 average), his hits are on par for the lead with Morris, both only played 40 games.
His BS are third behind Michalek, and Morris (Morris with 1 game less, but has 5 more BS)
He has the fewest giveaways with 4 in 40 games (Yandle has 30 in 48g)
He is 6th in PP min with 1:05/g, and 7th on SH min with 1:14/g

I would say these stats are pretty impressive for a rookie, especially the giveaways.

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05-08-2013, 09:50 AM
  #658
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All right, I have some time, so I will make the little research.

He was 7th in TOI/g on the PHX defense (with 16:41 average), his hits are on par for the lead with Morris, both only played 40 games.
His BS are third behind Michalek, and Morris (Morris with 1 game less, but has 5 more BS)
He has the fewest giveaways with 4 in 40 games (Yandle has 30 in 48g)
He is 6th in PP min with 1:05/g, and 7th on SH min with 1:14/g

I would say these stats are pretty impressive for a rookie, especially the giveaways.
Interesting, thanks for looking up those stats. Guess Stone is an interesting dman then that we could benefit from. The asking price of Panik is something we don't want to part with, which signals a pretty fair deal in value. The bigger question would be if Phoenix moves Stone and his affordable contract before Yandle given their precarious financial position.

They have Gormley, Rundblad, Stone, OEL and Murphy as young dman or prospects. Quite the eventual logjam.

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05-08-2013, 10:19 AM
  #659
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I'm noticing that John Scott will become a UFA this offseason. I'd like to sign a guy like Scott.

I understand the concept of team toughness and I fully support Cooper pushing for that. But really, who do we have to drop the gloves? Lecavalier, Aulie, Crombeen, and Labrie? Losing Lecavalier for 5 minutes hurts our offence, I'd rather he stay on the ice. Aulie going off the ice just gives more ice time to Carle and Brewer, and I think Aulie plays quite well. Crombeen and Labrie are 4th liners, but Crombeen has lost most of his fights and Labrie isn't the best fighter either. Having Crombeen and Labrie as our secondary fighers is a good position to be in.

I think it'd be good to sign Scott to a cheap contract to play on the 4th line with Labrie and Crombeen. Thoughts?

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05-08-2013, 10:36 AM
  #660
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I'm noticing that John Scott will become a UFA this offseason. I'd like to sign a guy like Scott.

I understand the concept of team toughness and I fully support Cooper pushing for that. But really, who do we have to drop the gloves? Lecavalier, Aulie, Crombeen, and Labrie? Losing Lecavalier for 5 minutes hurts our offence, I'd rather he stay on the ice. Aulie going off the ice just gives more ice time to Carle and Brewer, and I think Aulie plays quite well. Crombeen and Labrie are 4th liners, but Crombeen has lost most of his fights and Labrie isn't the best fighter either. Having Crombeen and Labrie as our secondary fighers is a good position to be in.

I think it'd be good to sign Scott to a cheap contract to play on the 4th line with Labrie and Crombeen. Thoughts?
He can't actually play hockey

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05-08-2013, 10:53 AM
  #661
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He can't actually play hockey
Most heavyweights aren't that skilled at hockey. His purpose will be to intimidate the opponents and make us a "team that players don't want to play against". But really, I want a fighter who will win his fights. I've seen enough of teams pushing our players around. Sure, the other players can all rush to protect their teammate, but some shoving doesn't do anything. We need a guy who will punish them.

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05-08-2013, 10:57 AM
  #662
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Most heavyweights aren't that skilled at hockey. His purpose will be to intimidate the opponents and make us a "team that players don't want to play against". But really, I want a fighter who will win his fights. I've seen enough of teams pushing our players around. Sure, the other players can all rush to protect their teammate, but some shoving doesn't do anything. We need a guy who will punish them.
Scott or Orr would have been great additions had we not re-signed BJ. BJ's not good enough to play on the 3rd line and if Labrie is re-signed, neither is he. If we iced a line of Labrie-Scott-BJ, we'd be screwed aside from the fact that opposing teams would need to adjust their lines accordingly if a fight broke out.

That said, we could still use another checker/toughness player on the 2nd or 3rd line if they are available via trade or UFA if the price is right. It should be a prerequisite that such a player is decent at playing hockey too.

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05-08-2013, 11:08 AM
  #663
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i'm okaywith what we have, we just don't have enough space for an heavyweight fighter, which can't play hockey and to be honest I can't see why we would need one. Fighting doesn't win you games. Scoring more than the opposite wins you games. Fight can be good as motivation, but so can other things (Cooper ?).
I just can't understand why teams ice players just ofr fighting. Anyway we could just sign Neilson. He wouldn't be that much worse tha Scott,... in hockey.
And I seriously think, Labrie can actually play hockey (not good, but 4th line hockey). He has shown us, that he can get a lucky bounce in and played quit well with more ice time at the end of the season. So I'm all for playing him a little more next year. Yes still as #13, but not only 4 min a game, if he is in the lineup.

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05-08-2013, 11:18 AM
  #664
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If we get another bottom six guy, I want it to be a checker (like a Clutterbuck), not a goon that we ice for 3 minutes a game for "intimidation". Physical teams are not necessarily fighting teams. Having players that can throw some solid checks can wear a team down a lot. Scott is a lumbering fighter that can't play hockey, no thanks.

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05-08-2013, 11:28 AM
  #665
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If we get another bottom six guy, I want it to be a checker (like a Clutterbuck), not a goon that we ice for 3 minutes a game for "intimidation". Physical teams are not necessarily fighting teams. Having players that can throw some solid checks can wear a team down a lot. Scott is a lumbering fighter that can't play hockey, no thanks.
I wonder what Clutterbuck would cost us though. I feel like he's the type of player that is worth more to his team than what he would garner in return via trade.

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05-08-2013, 11:44 AM
  #666
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I wonder what Clutterbuck would cost us though. I feel like he's the type of player that is worth more to his team than what he would garner in return via trade.
I asked the Wild fans some weeks ago, if he is available and they said yes. And in their Off season thread they write about it as well, so lets ask them on the mainboard wat he is worth from Tampa

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05-08-2013, 11:46 AM
  #667
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I asked the Wild fans some weeks ago, if he is available and they said yes. And in their Off season thread they write about it as well, so lets ask them on the mainboard wat he is worth from Tampa
That is very re-assuring that Wild fans would be willing to part with him, as he's exactly the type of player we could use on our 3rd line right now. You can lead the charge on posting a thread on the main boards, I tend to stay away from there as much as possible

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05-08-2013, 11:57 AM
  #668
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Would definitely like Clutterbuck on the team.

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05-08-2013, 12:34 PM
  #669
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Most heavyweights aren't that skilled at hockey. His purpose will be to intimidate the opponents and make us a "team that players don't want to play against". But really, I want a fighter who will win his fights. I've seen enough of teams pushing our players around. Sure, the other players can all rush to protect their teammate, but some shoving doesn't do anything. We need a guy who will punish them.
Why? You win games by what you do while the clock is running, not after the whistle. Despite the widespread belief (and possibility) that fights create "momentum", there's no conclusive evidence that momentum (particularly for the side that "wins" one) is a consistent byproduct of a fight, let alone any period of time you could expect such momentum to last. There's been research (for example, see: here, here, here) but no positive correlation between fighting and winning has ever been proven and there's even less reason to believe that actually winning a fight is more important than participating in one.

A devoted heavyweight is a detriment to the balance of your club and they don't, contrary to an argument I've seen promoted in the past, deter so-called "pests" from performing their role. The Matt Cooke's (a pretty useful hockey player, I might add), Zac Rinaldo's and Pat Kaleta's of the league don't answer to heavyweights. Sure, face-wash them after the whistle but your best bet at exacting meaningful revenge against these types is to deliver hard and hopefully clean hits with the clock ticking in the hope of dinging them up or getting them agitated into taking retaliation penalties (which give you power plays, which...you might see where this is going).

I get wanting teams to be "intimidated" and to consider the Lightning a tough opponent but I want that, beyond aggressive behavior in post-whistle scrums, to be because we have players that effectively initiate or absorb contact and "pay the price" by patrolling the high-traffic areas at both ends of the ice. Being able to ice guys who can play a regular shift, especially in the playoffs and is, win or lose, willing to scrap, is far more important, IMO, than having a guy who is sure to win a bout but is a liability in any game state.


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05-08-2013, 12:40 PM
  #670
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I think it'd be good to sign Scott to a cheap contract to play on the 4th line with Labrie and Crombeen. Thoughts?
Can't see it. There are only so many roster spots for forwards. Now look at the guys who are under contract for next year (except for Malone, who I think will be gone), and the guys in Syracuse who are pushing for a spot. Who are you not going to have on the big club, to make a place for Scott?

When Cooper talked about being tough to play against, I suspect what he had in mind wasn't dropping the gloves, but something more like the shifts skated by the Crombeen-Thompson-Labrie line in the final few games of the season. They were forechecking like mad, keeping teams pinned in their own end, creating chances, and generally causing havoc out there. Heck, even Brewer and Carle were actually throwing the odd body check in those late games.

That is what we are likely to see more of next year, and pretty much everyone on the roster is capable of playing that type of game. They just have to want to.

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05-08-2013, 01:58 PM
  #671
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Why? You win games by what you do while the clock is running, not after the whistle. Despite the widespread belief (and possibility) that fights create "momentum", there's no conclusive evidence that momentum (particularly for the side that "wins" one) is a consistent byproduct of a fight, let alone any period of time you could expect such momentum to last. There's been research (for example, see: here, here, here) but no positive correlation between fighting and winning has ever been proven and there's even less reason to believe that actually winning a fight is more important than participating in one.

A devoted heavyweight is a detriment to the balance of your club and they don't, contrary to an argument I've seen promoted in the past, deter so-called "pests" from performing their role. The Matt Cooke's (a pretty useful hockey player, I might add), Zac Rinaldo's and Pat Kaleta's of the league don't answer to heavyweights. Sure, face-wash them after the whistle but your best bet at exacting meaningful revenge against these types is to deliver hard and hopefully clean hits with the clock ticking in the hope of dinging them up or getting them agitated into taking retaliation penalties (which give you power plays, which...you might see where this is going).

I get wanting teams to be "intimidated" and to consider the Lightning a tough opponent but I want that, beyond aggressive behavior in post-whistle scrums, to be because we have players that effectively initiate or absorb contact and "pay the price" by patrolling the high-traffic areas at both ends of the ice. Being able to ice guys who can play a regular shift, especially in the playoffs and is, win or lose, willing to scrap, is far more important, IMO, than having a guy who is sure to win a bout is a liability in any game state.
So you consider Crombeen more effective in his fourth line role than a guy like Colton Orr? Orr had 4 fewer points than Crombeen and actually scored a goal (excluding EN). But he had almost 40 more PIM than Crombeen, and let's face it Orr is a better fighter than Crombeen is.

Orr is a heavyweight who can punish others and has a good chance to win his fights, but he's no liability. Toronto ices two enforcers in Orr and McLaren, Ottawa has Neil, Montreal has Prust, Buffalo had Scott. All of these teams are going to be facing us often next season. And because we lack a true enforcer, Toronto scratches Orr and McLaren and puts in some skilled wingers against us. Shows how "tough" we really are. You start pushing some of their players, one of their enforcers is going to instigate a fight with one of our skilled players. We all know what happens when the wrong people fight (Hall last season).

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05-08-2013, 02:15 PM
  #672
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So you consider Crombeen more effective in his fourth line role than a guy like Colton Orr? Orr had 4 fewer points than Crombeen and actually scored a goal (excluding EN). But he had almost 40 more PIM than Crombeen, and let's face it Orr is a better fighter than Crombeen is.

Orr is a heavyweight who can punish others and has a good chance to win his fights, but he's no liability. Toronto ices two enforcers in Orr and McLaren, Ottawa has Neil, Montreal has Prust, Buffalo had Scott. All of these teams are going to be facing us often next season. And because we lack a true enforcer, Toronto scratches Orr and McLaren and puts in some skilled wingers against us. Shows how "tough" we really are. You start pushing some of their players, one of their enforcers is going to instigate a fight with one of our skilled players. We all know what happens when the wrong people fight (Hall last season).
I can't speak for nhljohnson, but my point is that Scott or Orr would have been amazing had we not re-signed BJ. With BJ and Labrie already on the fourth line, there's just no room for an enforcer. Neither BJ or Labrie are good enough hockey players to compensate for an enforcer on the 4th line.

Our attention has likely shifted towards a second or third line checker who provides some toughness and can actually play the game, if we're after a forward at all.

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05-08-2013, 02:16 PM
  #673
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Why? You win games by what you do while the clock is running, not after the whistle. Despite the widespread belief (and possibility) that fights create "momentum", there's no conclusive evidence that momentum (particularly for the side that "wins" one) is a consistent byproduct of a fight, let alone any period of time you could expect such momentum to last. There's been research (for example, see: here, here, here) but no positive correlation between fighting and winning has ever been proven and there's even less reason to believe that actually winning a fight is more important than participating in one.

A devoted heavyweight is a detriment to the balance of your club and they don't, contrary to an argument I've seen promoted in the past, deter so-called "pests" from performing their role. The Matt Cooke's (a pretty useful hockey player, I might add), Zac Rinaldo's and Pat Kaleta's of the league don't answer to heavyweights. Sure, face-wash them after the whistle but your best bet at exacting meaningful revenge against these types is to deliver hard and hopefully clean hits with the clock ticking in the hope of dinging them up or getting them agitated into taking retaliation penalties (which give you power plays, which...you might see where this is going).

I get wanting teams to be "intimidated" and to consider the Lightning a tough opponent but I want that, beyond aggressive behavior in post-whistle scrums, to be because we have players that effectively initiate or absorb contact and "pay the price" by patrolling the high-traffic areas at both ends of the ice. Being able to ice guys who can play a regular shift, especially in the playoffs and is, win or lose, willing to scrap, is far more important, IMO, than having a guy who is sure to win a bout but is a liability in any game state.
I agree with this post so hard, I want to take it out beneath the bleachers and get it pregnant. Toughness isn't fighting.

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05-08-2013, 03:11 PM
  #674
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Clutterbuck for Barberio was suggested by a Minny fan and I love it. Any that oppose such a move?

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05-08-2013, 03:16 PM
  #675
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^That's absurd. Hell no.

Also, I have no interest in John Scott.

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