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2013 Leafs Trades/Proposals/Signings X - Steckel traded, next on the docket...

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Old
03-19-2013, 09:08 AM
  #476
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Originally Posted by The Podium View Post
What? So a guy currently in the top 30 in scoring and was top 6 last season is a 2nd line guy? There aren't many teams (if any) where he wouldn't be a top line guy and you expect the Leafs to have 3 guys MORE productive?
It doesn't have to be as defined as 1st and 2nd as many people put it.
You just have to load the team around him with offensive talent, because he can't carry the offence by himself.

We're finally starting to see that.

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03-19-2013, 09:09 AM
  #477
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Originally Posted by dubplatepressure View Post
E Staal (2nd overall)
T Vanek (5th overall)
R Suter (7th overall)
D Phaneuf (9th)
J Carter (11th overall)
D Brown (13th overall)
B Seabrook (14th overall)
Z Parize (17th overall)
R Getzlaf (19th overall)
R Kesler (23rd overall)
M Richards (24th overall)
C Perry (28th overall)
P Bergeron (45th)
S Weber (49th)
D Backes (62nd)


Which would you trade for Kessel straight up right now? The only person I wouldn't would be Dion.
All of them, even Dion. Dion has his flaws, but I think he brings more to the table then Kessel does. Physical Dman who can put up decent points and play in any situation? Phaneuf makes some boneheaded plays at times, but at least I can see how he could be an effective piece in the physical grind that is 4 playoff rounds. Pair him with a legitimate defenceman, and it becomes a pretty solid pairing.

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03-19-2013, 09:10 AM
  #478
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Even further to the above, assuming we can get a top-20 pick for Kessel, based on the 2003 draft what's the likelihood of that swap working out for us:

1 Marc-Andre Fleury (Goaltender)
2 Eric Staal (Centre)
3 Nathan Horton (Right Wing)
4 Nikolai Zherdev (Right Wing)
5 Thomas Vanek (Left Wing)
6 Milan Michalek (Left Wing)
7 Ryan Suter (Defence)
8 Braydon Coburn (Defence)
9 Dion Phaneuf (Defence)
10 Andrei Kostitsyn (Right Wing)
11 Jeff Carter (Centre)
12 Hugh Jessiman (Right Wing)
13 Dustin Brown (Right Wing)
14 Brent Seabrook (Defence)
15 Robert Nilsson (Right Wing)
16 Steve Bernier (Right Wing)
17 Zach Parise (Centre)
18 Eric Fehr (Right Wing)
19 Ryan Getzlaf (Centre)
20 Brent Burns (Right wing)


Which of those would be beneficial for us to swap Kessel with? I see 9 players above whom I would definitely not trade Kessel for now (straight up), and at least 5 of the above are what I'd consider big flops.

Is it fair to say that if we swap Kessel for a top-20 pick we have roughly a 50% chance that it works in our favour, and a 25% chance that it blows up in our face, based on the 2003 draft?

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03-19-2013, 09:12 AM
  #479
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If Burke has taught us anything, it's that it is easy to add secondary pieces to a team. MacArthur, Grabo, Lupul, JVR, Liles, were all added, and all we had to give up were two 2nd round picks, Beauchemin, Schenn, and a D-prospect (Grabo trade).

Getting legitimate core pieces though? Very difficult. You pretty much have to draft them. They're almost never available via free agency, and almost never available via trade (and even then, they cost a ridiculous amount).

It's not hard to add depth, it's hard to add franchise players. Easiest/fastest way to get franchise players? Increase your odds in the draft. If you trade away some secondary players, oh well. Those come up the pipeline regularly through your own system, are available every year in free agency, and available for relatively cheap via trade.
I agree with this entirely.

BUT, I don't think Kessel can be even remotely looked at in this same vein. You would need three of the players you listed to replace his totals from the last three or four years. You cannot get Kessel's scoring from UFA's. They will be signed.

The comments by others regarding the trade for Kessel and how they didn't want him, border on ridiculous. Why??? Simple, cause Boston would have excepted nothing less that what Burke traded for him. If we offered anything less, he'd still be a Bruin. And still scoring 30 to 35, even 40 goals a year for them. Maybe more.

In hindsight, yeah we should have not made the trade and should have been more patient. But we have him now, can't rewind the clock.

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03-19-2013, 09:14 AM
  #480
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Originally Posted by NoTouchIcing View Post
It doesn't have to be as defined as 1st and 2nd as many people put it.
You just have to load the team around him with offensive talent, because he can't carry the offence by himself.

We're finally starting to see that.
"Cant carry the offence" he says
"Finally starting to see that" he says

Currently leading the team in scoring....
Team he is currently leading is 7th in G/G...

WTF are we seeing! This fan base blindly criticizes

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03-19-2013, 09:14 AM
  #481
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Originally Posted by dubplatepressure View Post

Is it fair to say that if we swap Kessel for a top-20 pick we have roughly a 50% chance that it works in our favour, and a 25% chance that it blows up in our face, based on the 2003 draft?
Something like that, yes. But Kessel would also get more than just a mid-1st round pick in a trade. He would probably get that + a top prospect (though not league wide top prospect). Something like a ~Coyle, Forsberg, Gormley, Klefbom, etc calibre prospect (not saying those are teams that would be interested in trading for Kessel mind you).

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03-19-2013, 09:16 AM
  #482
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Originally Posted by dubplatepressure View Post
Even further to the above, assuming we can get a top-20 pick for Kessel, based on the 2003 draft what's the likelihood of that swap working out for us:

1 Marc-Andre Fleury (Goaltender)
2 Eric Staal (Centre)
3 Nathan Horton (Right Wing)
4 Nikolai Zherdev (Right Wing)
5 Thomas Vanek (Left Wing)
6 Milan Michalek (Left Wing)
7 Ryan Suter (Defence)
8 Braydon Coburn (Defence)
9 Dion Phaneuf (Defence)
10 Andrei Kostitsyn (Right Wing)
11 Jeff Carter (Centre)
12 Hugh Jessiman (Right Wing)
13 Dustin Brown (Right Wing)
14 Brent Seabrook (Defence)
15 Robert Nilsson (Right Wing)
16 Steve Bernier (Right Wing)
17 Zach Parise (Centre)
18 Eric Fehr (Right Wing)
19 Ryan Getzlaf (Centre)
20 Brent Burns (Right wing)


Which of those would be beneficial for us to swap Kessel with? I see 9 players above whom I would definitely not trade Kessel for now (straight up), and at least 5 of the above are what I'd consider big flops.

Is it fair to say that if we swap Kessel for a top-20 pick we have roughly a 50% chance that it works in our favour, and a 25% chance that it blows up in our face, based on the 2003 draft?
You are dead on sir. Nice post.

I don't like the odds. We know what we have with Kessel. Even when we play Boston. LOL

Let's get other pieces to help. Not cut off your hand to buy a foot.

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03-19-2013, 09:18 AM
  #483
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Originally Posted by dubplatepressure View Post
E Staal (2nd overall)
T Vanek (5th overall)
R Suter (7th overall)
D Phaneuf (9th)
J Carter (11th overall)
D Brown (13th overall)
B Seabrook (14th overall)
Z Parize (17th overall)
R Getzlaf (19th overall)
R Kesler (23rd overall)
M Richards (24th overall)
C Perry (28th overall)
P Bergeron (45th)
S Weber (49th)
D Backes (62nd)


Which would you trade for Kessel straight up right now? The only person I wouldn't would be Dion.
Backes, Weber, Perry, Getzlaf, Suter, maybe Bergeron.

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Old
03-19-2013, 09:21 AM
  #484
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Is no one questioning why the 03 draft was so strong? Anyone notice some players are a year older than others? There were strict European and NCAA draft rules and alot of the players are actually 1st round calibre players from 2002 that were not eligible based on their pre-draft league. Therefore no draft will ever be as strong as 2003 again! If under the same rules, every non-CHL player drafted last season would be drafted this season. Dont want to go through it but im sure there was a significant amount of good players that would be added to the 1st round of this draft

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03-19-2013, 09:22 AM
  #485
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Originally Posted by northstarnicky View Post

BUT, I don't think Kessel can be even remotely looked at in this same vein. You would need three of the players you listed to replace his totals from the last three or four years. You cannot get Kessel's scoring from UFA's. They will be signed.
You also have to consider what type of point totals other players would put up given more ice time. Look at the points guys like Stajan, Moore, Antropov, etc put up when put in a 1st line situation with top PP minutes. Now would our other wingers put up 70-80 points and 30+ goals with 1st line minutes? No, they wouldn't. But their point totals would still increase.

And then consider the number of goals another player would PREVENT from going into our net over an 82 game season, just due to better positioning, better back checking, better work in the corners, etc. You also have to consider the level of physical play a player brings, especially in the playoffs. Guys like Dustin Brown, Ryan Kesler, Brad Marchand, M. Richards, etc. are known to excel over 4 playoff rounds, punishing the opposition while also putting up points and playing strong defensive hockey.

Kessels net contribution to a winning team, after considering defensive play and physical play, is a lot lower than his point totals suggest IMO. I think he probably has the most trade value out of any piece on our roster, and is also one of the more overrated pieces on the roster. Which is a good combination if you're trying to get good value in a trade.

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03-19-2013, 09:23 AM
  #486
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Originally Posted by northstarnicky View Post
You are dead on sir. Nice post.

I don't like the odds. We know what we have with Kessel. Even when we play Boston. LOL

Let's get other pieces to help. Not cut off your hand to buy a foot.

Thx and agreed - it's a huge risk. Worth noting though that inside the top-10 the odds are better that we'll get higher quality returning... that is, there's a lower flop-risk:

1 in 10 was a huge flop (Kostitsyn)
4 in 10 were/are legit franchise players (Fleury, Staal, Vanek, Suter)
5 in 10 were/are excellent players


40% chance of acquiring a franchise player, 50% chance of acquiring an excellent player, arguably similar to Kessel, and 10% chance of it a flop pick, all based on the 2003 draft. That's IF we can move within the top-10.

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03-19-2013, 09:26 AM
  #487
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I think now that Perry is signed and the Leafs were interested in getting him, they may make some other moves, to bolster their line-up, Perry would have taken a lot of Cap room and now he's off the market, they can turn their attention to other players, that may be available and with all the GMs in Toronto for the meetings and with just 2 weeks before the deadline it should become pretty clear who are the buyers and sellers.

It's being reported that a lot of the GMs are bringing their scouting staffs with them.

Quote:
The NHL's general managers convene in Toronto on Wednesday for a day of meetings. There will be discussion about goaltender's equipment, shootouts and diving. But, there will also be trade talk. Vancouver, for example, is bringing its scouting staff to "The Centre of the Universe" in conjunction with this event.

Many GMs believe the trade deadline is inflationary and that it's better to make your moves earlier. Several teams have tried, including the Canucks (looking for centres), Philadelphia (defencemen), Rangers (a defenceman and depth forwards) and Nashville (offence).
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opin...lationary.html

Quote:
9. Toronto: the Maple Leafs will not make a move that in any way jeopardizes playoff chances. "They are going for it," another GM said. It's tough, though, for Toronto to take on any salary until Perry's future is known. If he hits the market, they'll be involved. They can't destroy their flexibility.
He's not on the market any longer.

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03-19-2013, 09:26 AM
  #488
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Originally Posted by dubplatepressure View Post
Thx and agreed - it's a huge risk. Worth noting though that inside the top-10 the odds are better that we'll get higher quality returning... that is, there's a lower flop-risk:

1 in 10 was a huge flop (Kostitsyn)
4 in 10 were/are legit franchise players (Fleury, Staal, Vanek, Suter)
5 in 10 were/are excellent players


40% chance of acquiring a franchise player, 50% chance of acquiring an excellent player, arguably similar to Kessel, and 10% chance of it a flop pick, all based on the 2003 draft.
Vanek and Fleury are franchise players

Vaneks falling back to earth if you havent noticed 3 goals and 8 points in the last 15 games. Kessel over that span 8 goals and 16 points in the last 15 games...

Fleury has been abysmal for a year now.

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03-19-2013, 09:30 AM
  #489
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Originally Posted by Budsfan View Post
9. Toronto: the Maple Leafs will not make a move that in any way jeopardizes playoff chances. "They are going for it," another GM said. It's tough, though, for Toronto to take on any salary until Perry's future is known. If he hits the market, they'll be involved. They can't destroy their flexibility.


http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opin...lationary.html
We'll have to see where we are by the trade deadline. If the Leafs start winning some games, and keep themselves in the top 8, that's a completely different story than if they go below 0.500 for the next 7 games before the deadline and are sitting in ~9th-11th.

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03-19-2013, 09:32 AM
  #490
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Originally Posted by dubplatepressure View Post
Thx and agreed - it's a huge risk. Worth noting though that inside the top-10 the odds are better that we'll get higher quality returning... that is, there's a lower flop-risk:

1 in 10 was a huge flop (Kostitsyn)
4 in 10 were/are legit franchise players (Fleury, Staal, Vanek, Suter)
5 in 10 were/are excellent players


40% chance of acquiring a franchise player, 50% chance of acquiring an excellent player, arguably similar to Kessel, and 10% chance of it a flop pick, all based on the 2003 draft. That's IF we can move within the top-10.
I agree.

The big problem with trading Kessel is who would trade for him? Honestly, it would be a top team now, that needs more scoring and already has the physical pieces like Perry, Brown etc.

There is really no way trading Kessel gets us a Top 10 pick. The reason is simple, those teams not making the playoffs either cannot afford what it would take, or will simply hold on to the pick and take their chances.

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03-19-2013, 09:33 AM
  #491
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I've already let my thoughts known on trading Kessel that I'm not going to bother anymore. This place is connected to Hockey's Future, so the value of young players and prospects and overvalued instead of winning results.

There is room on a roster for one or two Phil Kessel's on a team. Difference is you don't have a team full of guys similar (one dimensional) to Phil on the team. Team is missing some two way big offensive players in the top 6.


Last edited by Mr. Canucklehead: 03-19-2013 at 10:01 AM. Reason: Removed quip.
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03-19-2013, 09:38 AM
  #492
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I agree with this entirely.

BUT, I don't think Kessel can be even remotely looked at in this same vein. You would need three of the players you listed to replace his totals from the last three or four years. You cannot get Kessel's scoring from UFA's. They will be signed.

The comments by others regarding the trade for Kessel and how they didn't want him, border on ridiculous. Why??? Simple, cause Boston would have excepted nothing less that what Burke traded for him. If we offered anything less, he'd still be a Bruin. And still scoring 30 to 35, even 40 goals a year for them. Maybe more.

In hindsight, yeah we should have not made the trade and should have been more patient. But we have him now, can't rewind the clock.
Agreed there, but could we get a guy with slightly less point totals whose line doesn't get scored on more than it scores?

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03-19-2013, 09:38 AM
  #493
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You also have to consider what type of point totals other players would put up given more ice time. Look at the points guys like Stajan, Moore, Antropov, etc put up when put in a 1st line situation with top PP minutes. Now would our other wingers put up 70-80 points and 30+ goals with 1st line minutes? No, they wouldn't. But their point totals would still increase.

And then consider the number of goals another player would PREVENT from going into our net over an 82 game season, just due to better positioning, better back checking, better work in the corners, etc. You also have to consider the level of physical play a player brings, especially in the playoffs. Guys like Dustin Brown, Ryan Kesler, Brad Marchand, M. Richards, etc. are known to excel over 4 playoff rounds, punishing the opposition while also putting up points and playing strong defensive hockey.

Kessels net contribution to a winning team, after considering defensive play and physical play, is a lot lower than his point totals suggest IMO. I think he probably has the most trade value out of any piece on our roster, and is also one of the more overrated pieces on the roster. Which is a good combination if you're trying to get good value in a trade.
I agree with most of what you have posted. But the same can be said for Kessel playing with one of the players you have mentioned in the second paragraph. My point is that Kessel is a point a game player over the last 15 games I believe. Look at his line mates? Kessel's contributions to a team that has those players, on his line would be scary. If traded, it will be to a top 5 team in either conference. That would be the biggest value.

The players you mention in the first paragraph would never be close to a point a game even if they played 45 min a game.

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03-19-2013, 09:38 AM
  #494
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Originally Posted by The Podium View Post
"Cant carry the offence" he says
"Finally starting to see that" he says

Currently leading the team in scoring....
Team he is currently leading is 7th in G/G...

WTF are we seeing! This fan base blindly criticizes
You supported my point entirely. We're scoring, and Phil and Lupul aren't potting 50% of the points, like they did for the first half last year.

I'm not criticizing anyone. Nor did I say much other than it doesn't have to be a cut-and-dried first and second line.

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03-19-2013, 09:41 AM
  #495
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Originally Posted by NoTouchIcing View Post
You supported my point entirely. We're scoring, and Phil and Lupul aren't potting 50% of the points, like they did for the first half last year.

I'm not criticizing anyone. Nor did I say much other than it doesn't have to be a cut-and-dried first and second line.
Take away the 27 goals that Kessel contributed on and we are by far the lowest G/G average....

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03-19-2013, 09:43 AM
  #496
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Agreed there, but could we get a guy with slightly less point totals whose line doesn't get scored on more than it scores?
No, because the same thing would happen. The line would still give up goals, but would also score less. LOL

JVR in three years, and a true #1 center with Kessel and a better defense will go a long ways in helping that. Kessel alone is NOT the reason the line gets scored on more than it scores. I just don't see it. Still a team game. Kessel needs help, there is no denying that is there? Every team needs a #1 line player that can pot 30+ goals or more.

Look at the past 20 years of Stanley Cup champions. Has a team won without a 30+ goal a year player?

Sure trade Kessel. That's fine if the return is Awesome. But if not, where are the goals the rest of this year, next year and the year after going to come from?

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03-19-2013, 09:44 AM
  #497
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Originally Posted by dubplatepressure View Post
Even further to the above, assuming we can get a top-20 pick for Kessel, based on the 2003 draft what's the likelihood of that swap working out for us:

1 Marc-Andre Fleury (Goaltender)
2 Eric Staal (Centre)
3 Nathan Horton (Right Wing)
4 Nikolai Zherdev (Right Wing)
5 Thomas Vanek (Left Wing)
6 Milan Michalek (Left Wing)
7 Ryan Suter (Defence)
8 Braydon Coburn (Defence)
9 Dion Phaneuf (Defence)
10 Andrei Kostitsyn (Right Wing)
11 Jeff Carter (Centre)
12 Hugh Jessiman (Right Wing)
13 Dustin Brown (Right Wing)
14 Brent Seabrook (Defence)
15 Robert Nilsson (Right Wing)
16 Steve Bernier (Right Wing)
17 Zach Parise (Centre)
18 Eric Fehr (Right Wing)
19 Ryan Getzlaf (Centre)
20 Brent Burns (Right wing)


Which of those would be beneficial for us to swap Kessel with? I see 9 players above whom I would definitely not trade Kessel for now (straight up), and at least 5 of the above are what I'd consider big flops.

Is it fair to say that if we swap Kessel for a top-20 pick we have roughly a 50% chance that it works in our favour, and a 25% chance that it blows up in our face, based on the 2003 draft?
Just thought I'd mention that 2003 draft you listed also turned out to be arguably the greatest draft in terms of quantity of high end talent since the 1979 draft.

I highly doubt this draft class turns out as well.

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03-19-2013, 09:46 AM
  #498
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Take away the 27 goals that Kessel contributed on and we are by far the lowest G/G average....
That is the point I think most fans are missing. At least the ones that want to trade Kessel. More goals from other players will not just magically appear. Just won't happen. I get the argument that more ice time will help, as a blind squirrel will find a nut sometimes. But overall??? Cannot replace the goals. You cant.

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03-19-2013, 09:50 AM
  #499
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Just thought I'd mention that 2003 draft you listed also turned out to be arguably the greatest draft in terms of quantity of high end talent since the 1979 draft.

I highly doubt this draft class turns out as well.

Which drives the chance of a swap of Kessel for a top-20 pick working out for us down even further....

We're better off holding onto Kessel and trying to draft a gem in the 10-20 range IMO.

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03-19-2013, 09:51 AM
  #500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ricky Bobby View Post
Just thought I'd mention that 2003 draft you listed also turned out to be arguably the greatest draft in terms of quantity of high end talent since the 1979 draft.

I highly doubt this draft class turns out as well.
every year we hear from the draft junkies on this board that it's the deepest draft in years.

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