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Prospect Thread XVI

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Old
03-27-2013, 02:18 PM
  #376
Bobby Lou
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Umm...we are playing Keith Ballard at forward and have one, or both, of Andrew Alberts and Cam Barker on the ice most nights ... is that particularly deep? Shouldn't be an issue for these prospects to beat out Alberts and Barker if they're actually good. We obviously don't have a single NHL-ready defensive prospect on the farm either, or they would likely be playing over scrubs like Barker and Alberts.

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03-27-2013, 02:55 PM
  #377
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For all the derision that Barker generates he hasn't played badly. Right now if I had to choose between Alberts and Barker, I'd go with Barker. Alberts plays very physical without the puck but handles the puck like it's a hand grenade. It hasn't hurt us so far, and maybe this is just rust, but Barker moves and handles the puck much better than Alberts.

Of our defensive prospects, Connauton is the top scoring defenseman in Chicago, but he's a dreadful -13. Yann Sauve is the best defenseman in Kalamazoo, which is not encouraging for a 2008 draft pick. Frankie Corrado is probably going to be our best defensive prospect, and regardless of the talent level on the Canucks, it's probably in his best interest to spend a season in the AHL.

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03-27-2013, 03:09 PM
  #378
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
making 3 million dollars with a 50% chance of failure is a hell of a lot smarter than $300,000 with a 40% chance of failure

the difference in value between an nhl player and an ahl player is an order of magnitude. to make it worthwhile to go to the ahl first you would have to assess that there is also an order of magnitude of difference in your chances of becoming an nhl regular, which would be an amazing find. if you could prove this, you'd probably get hired overnight by an nhl team that needs other miracle math done
But the reality is these guys still have to sign ELC's, even if they sign the MAX ELC and get NHL time, they'd still be highly unlikely to hit the thresholds to get all the bonuses.

I'd say the difference is closer to $925k vs $150k ($92,500 signing bonus + $65k AHL salary). Still substantial, but more realistic than those numbers you quoted.

For example Justin Schultz's cap hit is like $3.75m, but in reality how many bonuses will he get? I think he'll get the bonus for goals, assists, and ice time, but I think he'll fail to get it for points, ice time, PPG, and blocked shots.

Even if he wins the calder, he'll only have made $1.775m.


And that's a special case for a guy like Schultz who has the offensive talent to put up #'s early.

For guys like Sustr and Dekeyser, I can't see them coming close to hitting the bonuses Schultz is on pace to.

This did get me thinking though....what bonuses could Schultz have hit in Vancouver?

I don't think he'd have gotten the ice time bonus or the blocked shots bonus (he isn't getting it in Edmonton), but I still think he would have had similar offensive opportunities here. I think he could have hit the goals, assists, and points bonus, and probably would have been able to get the PPG and +/- bonuses too, since he'd get more sheltered icetime here (he's not in line to reach those in Edmonton).

I think choosing Edmonton will end up losing him money.

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03-27-2013, 03:28 PM
  #379
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But the reality is these guys still have to sign ELC's, even if they sign the MAX ELC and get NHL time, they'd still be highly unlikely to hit the thresholds to get all the bonuses.

I'd say the difference is closer to $925k vs $150k ($92,500 signing bonus + $65k AHL salary). Still substantial, but more realistic than those numbers you quoted.

For example Justin Schultz's cap hit is like $3.75m, but in reality how many bonuses will he get? I think he'll get the bonus for goals, assists, and ice time, but I think he'll fail to get it for points, ice time, PPG, and blocked shots.

Even if he wins the calder, he'll only have made $1.775m.


And that's a special case for a guy like Schultz who has the offensive talent to put up #'s early.

For guys like Sustr and Dekeyser, I can't see them coming close to hitting the bonuses Schultz is on pace to.

This did get me thinking though....what bonuses could Schultz have hit in Vancouver?

I don't think he'd have gotten the ice time bonus or the blocked shots bonus (he isn't getting it in Edmonton), but I still think he would have had similar offensive opportunities here. I think he could have hit the goals, assists, and points bonus, and probably would have been able to get the PPG and +/- bonuses too, since he'd get more sheltered icetime here (he's not in line to reach those in Edmonton).

I think choosing Edmonton will end up losing him money.
Having Schultz feeding Garrison on the PP would be ridiculous.

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Old
03-27-2013, 03:35 PM
  #380
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Originally Posted by ItsAllPartOfThePlan View Post
Having Schultz feeding Garrison on the PP would be ridiculous.
Yup. Makes me sad everytime I think of it, plus the RH shot gives him a good angle for Hank too.

Would have been a great fit, too bad I hate him now.

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Old
03-27-2013, 04:50 PM
  #381
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Would be sweet if we could land him. Certainly lots of talk about him and the Canucks. This next tweet is a bit depressing though:
Confirms what people here suspected when it comes to choosing teams. But I'm sure not all of them are like that - otherwise how does a guy like Tanev choose us over other teams? Perhaps the more unheralded players, not having as much leverage and choice in where they could sign, are more realistic to sign with us anyway.

Though I wonder how forwards might see it differently?

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Old
03-27-2013, 05:17 PM
  #382
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Confirms what people here suspected when it comes to choosing teams. But I'm sure not all of them are like that - otherwise how does a guy like Tanev choose us over other teams? Perhaps the more unheralded players, not having as much leverage and choice in where they could sign, are more realistic to sign with us anyway.

Though I wonder how forwards might see it differently?
I think Tanev ultimately chose us because of his relationship with Gagner.

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Old
03-27-2013, 05:20 PM
  #383
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think have a chance to get Laganiere.......he can play center and wing so that is nice

I hope we get him since Canucks have spend a lot of time looking at him

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03-27-2013, 06:06 PM
  #384
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
But the reality is these guys still have to sign ELC's, even if they sign the MAX ELC and get NHL time, they'd still be highly unlikely to hit the thresholds to get all the bonuses.

I'd say the difference is closer to $925k vs $150k ($92,500 signing bonus + $65k AHL salary). Still substantial, but more realistic than those numbers you quoted.
do they get that signing bonus every year? i assume no - it's a signing bonus, not a yearly one

every year in the ahl is a lost year in earning potential. you'd have to come up with some very convincing odds to suggest that giving up time in the nhl is going to lose players money on average.

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Old
03-27-2013, 06:13 PM
  #385
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
do they get that signing bonus every year? i assume no - it's a signing bonus, not a yearly one

every year in the ahl is a lost year in earning potential. you'd have to come up with some very convincing odds to suggest that giving up time in the nhl is going to lose players money on average.
I believe it's annually. I could be wrong though.

Starting in the NHL doesn't guarantee you finish there.

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Old
03-27-2013, 06:17 PM
  #386
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Laganiere and Lain are two massive boys,

I'm excited at the prospect of acquiring Laganiere, think of him as a bigger Hansen.

Kassian, Jensen, Gaunce, Lain, LaBate, Grenier...Dat size

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Old
03-27-2013, 06:20 PM
  #387
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Starting in the NHL doesn't guarantee you finish there.
no, but in the case of someone like gilroy, it probably earned him millions of dollars he otherwise wouldn't have earned

since the visible numbers are inherently in favour of starting in the nhl (guaranteed money vs not money), it's really your burden to prove that an AHL start is a better one, and I think you have to do that with numbers, not concepts.

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Old
03-27-2013, 06:37 PM
  #388
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I think Tanev ultimately chose us because of his relationship with Gagner.
We may have got very lucky with him then. But for someone who doesn't have that connection to begin with, I think Gillis' selling point is that if you pay your dues and spend some time developing in the minors you'll be a better player and be able to stay in the NHL longer, thus earning more money over the long haul.

IMO it comes down to a gamble of now vs. the future, as I've always maintained. But still, it's not like our prospect pool is so overwhelmingly deep that there's no chance to even get callups anyway.

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Old
03-27-2013, 07:36 PM
  #389
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vanuck View Post
Confirms what people here suspected when it comes to choosing teams. But I'm sure not all of them are like that - otherwise how does a guy like Tanev choose us over other teams? Perhaps the more unheralded players, not having as much leverage and choice in where they could sign, are more realistic to sign with us anyway.

Though I wonder how forwards might see it differently?
To the last part - lots of room to move up in the bottom-six what with several expiring contracts, a thin pipeline meaning there's room for ice-time in the AHL (as opposed to being relegated to the ECHL), and our top-sixers - mainly the Twins - are starting to get older. So there's some opportunity in the next few years, moreso than our D who are all pretty young and locked up long term to reasonable contracts.

But still, Tanev is a great example of a completely unheralded player who came into the system and allowed his play to dictate him getting a spot. College FAs should take note of that.

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Old
03-27-2013, 07:42 PM
  #390
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schultz isn't a good comparable as he wasn't undrafted. He's not really a "find" or a late bloomer so his thought process would likely be different than the true undrafted college ufa as far as expectations, second chances, etc.

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03-27-2013, 08:10 PM
  #391
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nuck This View Post
I think Tanev ultimately chose us because of his relationship with Gagner.
Same with Lain!

Quote:
He is good friends with Sam Gagner, so he got to know Sam’s dad, Dave Gagner pretty well and is friends with fellow Canucks prospect Jeremy Price. “The familiarity with everyone played a big part into my decision to come to Vancouver.”
http://canucks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=660714

Seems like connections do matter for us. Gagner has been $$.

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03-27-2013, 08:20 PM
  #392
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the gagners are pretty much the nicest people on the planet and are friends with everyone, apparently

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Old
03-27-2013, 08:55 PM
  #393
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Originally Posted by Mr. Canucklehead View Post
But still, Tanev is a great example of a completely unheralded player who came into the system and allowed his play to dictate him getting a spot. College FAs should take note of that.
He doesn't seem like a guy who takes stuff for granted. Very much like Schneider.

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Old
03-27-2013, 10:35 PM
  #394
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...seemed to work for Gilroy
Why the sarcasm smiley? The guy was a 25 year old UFA who has managed to make about $5m in his short career by finding a team with a brutal defense that was willing to give him a one-way and keep him up.

If he picked another team, signed a two-way and went to the minors, he may still be in the minors age have $500k instead of $5m to show for it. He was smart and took advantage of his hype.

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Old
03-28-2013, 01:38 AM
  #395
vanuck
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Originally Posted by Mr. Canucklehead View Post
To the last part - lots of room to move up in the bottom-six what with several expiring contracts, a thin pipeline meaning there's room for ice-time in the AHL (as opposed to being relegated to the ECHL), and our top-sixers - mainly the Twins - are starting to get older. So there's some opportunity in the next few years, moreso than our D who are all pretty young and locked up long term to reasonable contracts.

But still, Tanev is a great example of a completely unheralded player who came into the system and allowed his play to dictate him getting a spot. College FAs should take note of that.
Hopefully. I know MG wants the team to get younger next year but the sort of guys we're hoping to sign - like Laganiere - probably aren't going to be able to step into a Top 9 role right away. Perhaps there's a spot on the 4th line but you probably don't want that for his development. Keep in mind, though, that this is because I think we re-sign Higgins, and that pretty much rounds out the top 3 lines (assuming at least one of Raymond or Booth is also kept).

Though of course we'd all love for them to see opportunities - they might just come a little later than other teams. But still, when you compare the positions, it makes sense that there would be more opportunities to crack the lineup at forward, but compared to other teams I tend to be a little more cautious.

Fully agree on Tanev. If you can play, you're going to get a chance.

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Old
03-28-2013, 04:50 PM
  #396
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Antoine Laganiere article: http://www.985sports.ca/hockey/nouve...mb-227963.html

Nothing signficant except the fact that Montreal Canadiens did not show any interest so they are not option. Also he says he wants to reach the NHL in two years, if that's the case then it seems like he doesn't want to go to a team that will guarantee him ice-time.

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03-28-2013, 04:58 PM
  #397
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I haven't been watching the AHL as much recently, has Jensen's production hit a wall? Only 3 points in 9 games so far.

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Old
03-28-2013, 05:07 PM
  #398
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I haven't been watching the AHL as much recently, has Jensen's production hit a wall? Only 3 points in 9 games so far.
He was never playing that well to begin with. He's slowly figuring out NA hockey again, game by game. His reads are getting a bit better, he's getting to pucks faster, but at no point during these 9 games was he a huge factor or a guy that deserved a call-up. Small ice is very different and he'll need time to get back into it.

Wouldn't surprise me if he goes on a huge hot streak when he does and scores more than point per game. Clearly has an NHL-ready shot and size.

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Old
03-28-2013, 05:08 PM
  #399
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Antoine Laganiere article: http://www.985sports.ca/hockey/nouve...mb-227963.html

Nothing signficant except the fact that Montreal Canadiens did not show any interest so they are not option. Also he says he wants to reach the NHL in two years, if that's the case then it seems like he doesn't want to go to a team that will guarantee him ice-time.
He better sign with us...

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Old
03-28-2013, 05:45 PM
  #400
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He was never playing that well to begin with. He's slowly figuring out NA hockey again, game by game. His reads are getting a bit better, he's getting to pucks faster, but at no point during these 9 games was he a huge factor or a guy that deserved a call-up. Small ice is very different and he'll need time to get back into it.

Wouldn't surprise me if he goes on a huge hot streak when he does and scores more than point per game. Clearly has an NHL-ready shot and size.
Last year I think he did most of his damage on the PP. This year I'll be looking for him to increase his output at even strength once he adjusts back to the smaller rink.

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He better sign with us...
Or else!!

I do wonder how much of a factor it is in signing them when you've been chasing after them for years.

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