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Wings Have a 75 % Chance of Making the Playoffs!

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03-20-2013, 09:57 AM
  #1
The Yzerman
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Wings Have a 75 % Chance of Making the Playoffs!

According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html , the Wings have a 75% chance of making the playoffs. Feels good, after seeing what everyone said about the Wings finishing 14th or 15th in the West after losing Lidstrom, Stuart and (gasp!) Hudler.

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03-20-2013, 09:59 AM
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Guru Meditation
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Can you ask them the lottery numbers? Thanks.

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03-20-2013, 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Guru Meditation View Post
Can you ask them the lottery numbers? Thanks.
1+

I want a really high draft pick, this team is going nowhere in the playoffs anyways, so get the lowest possible draftpick, use the buy-out option in the summer on bertuzzi and samuelsson, let cleary walk, re-sign filppula if he doesn't go above 5M, inject youth nyquist, tatar, järnkrok. Allt his to begin with. (wishful thinking). Then start over next season, and let the team develope "on the fly".


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03-20-2013, 10:10 AM
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Heaton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mindfly View Post
1+

I want a really high draft pick, this team is going nowhere in the playoffs anyways, so get the lowest possible draftpick, use the buy-out option in the summer on bertuzzi and samuelsson, let cleary walk, re-sign filppula if he doesn't go above 5M, inject youth nyquist, tatar, järnkrok. Allt his to begin with. (wishful thinking). Then start over next season, and let the team develope "on the fly".
It's just not going to happen. This team isn't very good, but it's not a lottery team and whether or not this team looks like it's going anywhere in the playoffs doesn't really matter. Datsyuk and Z would have to get traded, so if people are hoping for a really high pick they're going to be disappointed.

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03-20-2013, 10:14 AM
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The Yzerman
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Originally Posted by Guru Meditation View Post
Can you ask them the lottery numbers? Thanks.
The website actually calculates the chances, it's not tarot cards or voodoo.
But thanks for your insight.

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03-20-2013, 10:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heaton View Post
It's just not going to happen. This team isn't very good, but it's not a lottery team and whether or not this team looks like it's going anywhere in the playoffs doesn't really matter. Datsyuk and Z would have to get traded, so if people are hoping for a really high pick they're going to be disappointed.
There's a decent chance they miss the playoffs (an injury to key player can happen any moment) that's at worst the 14th overall pick, highest pick since 1990 or something?

I'll take that, and that's a good pick for the wings, if they would fall another 1-3 spots that's even better. There's a Darnell Nurse or similar player around there, a player with abilities that isn't to be found in the system.

Also if you miss the playoffs you could still end up with 1st overall pick with (luck, a lot of it) IIRC they changed the drafting rules so every team that doesnt make the playoffs has a chance of getting the 1st

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03-20-2013, 10:21 AM
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Change thread title to "Confirmed with link: Nothing new to report"

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03-20-2013, 10:31 AM
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Originally Posted by mindfly View Post

Also if you miss the playoffs you could still end up with 1st overall pick with (luck, a lot of it) IIRC they changed the drafting rules so every team that doesnt make the playoffs has a chance of getting the 1st
Yep, they did.

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03-20-2013, 10:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heaton View Post
It's just not going to happen. This team isn't very good, but it's not a lottery team and whether or not this team looks like it's going anywhere in the playoffs doesn't really matter. Datsyuk and Z would have to get traded, so if people are hoping for a really high pick they're going to be disappointed.
I concur with Heaton!

Why didn't you concur?! LOL

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03-20-2013, 10:35 AM
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Sorry, had to

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03-20-2013, 10:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heaton View Post
It's just not going to happen. This team isn't very good, but it's not a lottery team and whether or not this team looks like it's going anywhere in the playoffs doesn't really matter. Datsyuk and Z would have to get traded, so if people are hoping for a really high pick they're going to be disappointed.
Bingo. There's just no way for any team with two of the best centers in the game to become a lottery team overnight.

People who are cheering "Death for Seth" and "Quit Winnin' for McKinnon" are going to be very disappointed with our season results.

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03-20-2013, 10:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HardingsJockstrap View Post
According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html , the Wings have a 75% chance of making the playoffs. Feels good, after seeing what everyone said about the Wings finishing 14th or 15th in the West after losing Lidstrom, Stuart and (gasp!) Hudler.
Well that's better then saying that the wings only have a 25% chance of making the playoffs.

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03-20-2013, 10:57 AM
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Who had them pegged for 14-15th?

The general consensus was 6-10th.

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03-20-2013, 11:01 AM
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They're not going to be a lottery team. But this team is not going farther than the 1st round, even by adding some pieces through trade. Rentals will simply spend assets and give nothing in return. Only trade I would do is trade Filppula for a non-rental d-man, since he seems to want more than $5M. Then put Nyquist on Pavel's wing so he'll be ready for next year. Iginla would probably be the worst possible pick up right now.

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03-20-2013, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by ChadS View Post
They're not going to be a lottery team. But this team is not going farther than the 1st round, even by adding some pieces through trade. Rentals will simply spend assets and give nothing in return. Only trade I would do is trade Filppula for a non-rental d-man, since he seems to want more than $5M. Then put Nyquist on Pavel's wing so he'll be ready for next year. Iginla would probably be the worst possible pick up right now.
Tatar is the best choice for Pavel's wing.
I agree. I love Iginla, but I do not want to spend assets on him, unless they are disposable assets (Flip - leaving anyway, maybe, Andersson, Almquist, Lashoff)

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03-20-2013, 11:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WingedWheel1987 View Post
Who had them pegged for 14-15th?

The general consensus was 6-10th.
I had them 6 to 10.
But I gotta say, if they don't comeback against Edmonton, down 2-0, I think it's entirely likely we're looking at a 10 to 13 spot.

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03-20-2013, 11:34 AM
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To be fair, the Leafs had something like a 90% chance of making the playoffs in February or so last season before falling off a cliff. Not saying I expect a team with Dats/Z to do that, just that this number isn't exactly a guarantee.

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03-20-2013, 02:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HardingsJockstrap View Post
According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html , the Wings have a 75% chance of making the playoffs. Feels good, after seeing what everyone said about the Wings finishing 14th or 15th in the West after losing Lidstrom, Stuart and (gasp!) Hudler.
Rofl, who the hell predicted the Wings would come in dead last in a conference with CBJ, the Flames, the Oilers?

The team still has a Datsyuk and a Zetterberg. You cannot be dead last with that.

Most sane people, put the Wings as a bubble team. anywhere from 6-12. And with the West as tight as it is, you might as well expand that to 4-14. Since what, it's just a point here or there that separates them anyway. But dead last? Hahaha.

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03-20-2013, 02:26 PM
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This means nothing. If the wings go on a 7 game slide like they did last year they could be screwed. Especially if they keep losing to people under them like Columbus.

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03-20-2013, 02:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Eternal Sunshine View Post
To be fair, the Leafs had something like a 90% chance of making the playoffs in February or so last season before falling off a cliff. Not saying I expect a team with Dats/Z to do that, just that this number isn't exactly a guarantee.
Haha, it's a % number, of course it's not a guarantee. But it's also closer to playoffs. Less room for big swings.

Either way, I don't know how to take this news. If Holland makes moves at the TDL, and we bring up Tatar full time? I honestly think the team could do damage in the playoffs. If we sit on our hands? Then I'll say "why did we bother making the playoffs and ruining our chances at a great pick."

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03-20-2013, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fading Captain View Post
I had them 6 to 10.
But I gotta say, if they don't comeback against Edmonton, down 2-0, I think it's entirely likely we're looking at a 10 to 13 spot.
As long as Z/Dats played the majority of the season, they were gonna get atleast an eighth seed.

I only thought they wouldn't make the playoffs if either of those players missed a significant amount of time.

12-13 is for truly terrible teams with an awful system.

Datsyuk/Z would never allow this team to be 13th in the conference. They work too hard.

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03-20-2013, 03:20 PM
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Originally Posted by WingedWheel1987 View Post
As long as Z/Dats played the majority of the season, they were gonna get atleast an eighth seed.

I only thought they wouldn't make the playoffs if either of those players missed a significant amount of time.

12-13 is for truly terrible teams with an awful system.

Datsyuk/Z would never allow this team to be 13th in the conference. They work too hard.
25% is still a pretty decent chunk of a probability that they miss. And if the past 4-5 years are any indication, the difference between 8-9 could be as slim as ROW tiebreakers. Saying "at least 8th" is pretty nothing.

What I'm trying to point out is, as good as Dats/Z are, even they cannot guarantee us playoff spots anymore. The surrounding player quality has diminished, the league has gotten tighter, and the system we're playing doesn't seem so coherent anymore.

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03-20-2013, 05:01 PM
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As close as the west is, this % doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot. It's 10 points between 3rd and 15th. The smallest losing streak could mean big trouble from here on out

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03-20-2013, 05:10 PM
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As close as the west is, this % doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot. It's 10 points between 3rd and 15th. The smallest losing streak could mean big trouble from here on out
We are 0.656 team at home and 0.461 team on the road. If we keep that pace throughout the regular season we'll end up to be a 0.559 team.

Last year it needed 0.579 from west to get in the playoffs. East playoff line was at 0.561.

So what we have been at this season does not carry us in the playoffs. We have to be better.

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03-20-2013, 05:13 PM
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Ah, but what is the chance they score another PP goal on the road?

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