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Past the halfway point and only 3 points out

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Old
03-14-2013, 01:26 PM
  #1
CAMSANITY
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Past the halfway point and only 3 points out

Raise your hand if you actually thought we would be where we are today...::crickets::

This team is performing a lot better than I expected after our sluggish start this year. Yes, we have played 1-2 more games but who is to say those teams automatically win those games? The word needs to be spread around Columbus that the Jackets are in the race so more and more people will show up to these games so let's all get to work!

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Old
03-14-2013, 01:42 PM
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JacketsDavid
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Or put another way-
Past half way done and 13th place in the West.



We're closer to 4 points out. Yes we trail the wild by 3 points but they've played 2 less games. We trail Detroit by 4 points with same number of games. Guess I usually assume a game in hand is a point (on average).

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Old
03-14-2013, 01:44 PM
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SuperGenius
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CAMSANITY View Post
Raise your hand if you actually thought we would be where we are today...::crickets::

This team is performing a lot better than I expected after our sluggish start this year. Yes, we have played 1-2 more games but who is to say those teams automatically win those games? The word needs to be spread around Columbus that the Jackets are in the race so more and more people will show up to these games so let's all get to work!
I'm enthusiastic, but lets be sure we are realistic about this.

Points back is a deceptive stat. We have more games than many ahead of us and some behind us. In reality, the CBJ are a bit further away. I think they still sit at a 5% chance to make the playoffs.

Not saying it isn't possible, but it will be more difficult than it seems. Something like 6 games over .500 is required from here on out. Sounds easy. History says it isn't.

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Old
03-14-2013, 02:21 PM
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blahblah
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It is not as close as it sounds. A couple of these teams have two games in hand. 3 points out is an illusion at this point, it is closer to 5 or 6.

To put it another way, we have 12 losses, SJ has 8. We still have the most losses in the West.

Sure, the run has been great, but we dug ourselves a massive hole in the early season. We just can't afford to more than 5 or so games the rest of the season. That number getting us to compete for the #8 spot.

No, we are pretenders at this point still.

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03-14-2013, 02:38 PM
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Robert
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They have to be 3 points above .500 for any chance of reaching the current 8th seed.. in other words they have to win 5 in a row and the 8th seed contenders stay the same in points for five games...

Hugh hill if not impossible to climb but there's still a mathematical chance for the time being...

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03-14-2013, 03:27 PM
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I'm encouraged and excited for the future, which is something I couldn't say last year. Especially when all the Nash and Carter stuff happened and we lost the lottery.

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Old
03-14-2013, 03:40 PM
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Nordique
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21 games left.

14-7 would get us in the hunt for 8th

16-5 would almost certainly get us in the playoffs


Difficult, but doable. The problem is, we have something like 15 road games left. The nice thing for the McKinnon crowd is, we can make a playoff run and still be close to last in the west if we fall short. In fact, we are last in the West right now, ppg.

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Old
03-14-2013, 04:28 PM
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Bobcat110
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We're up to a 5% chance of making the playoffs, but still have 34% chance at finishing 15th in the conference.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Columbus.html

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Old
03-14-2013, 05:18 PM
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We need at least a point tonight and then to win 3 of the next 4. That will put us in the hunt. Good news is that only the West is playing the West... We can make up 2 points quickly on teams but beating them in regulation. We could take 4 from Nashville in the next week.

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03-14-2013, 06:06 PM
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EspenK
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when I saw the headline I wasn't sure if you meant out of the playoffs or last place. To me one thing we have going for us is that other teams aren't playing as well as expected. Strange season.

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Old
03-14-2013, 09:36 PM
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Jackets are so on fire right now though, a even a small loosing streak is going to be hard to overcome it took a franchise record setting 9 strait games with a point to get here. Its not a pace that can be sustained. I would love to see the jackets make the playoffs though. Too bad it wouldn't be a Detroit Columbus rematch. More like Detroit and Columbus fighting for the same spot lol

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Old
03-14-2013, 10:08 PM
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EspenK
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From a post i made about a week and so back:

"I think the next bunch of games (5) with Vancouver twice, Detroit twice and Chicago will give us a real good idea how far we have come. 4 of the 5 are at home so to me anything less than 6 points will tell us we have a way to go."

8 pts earned. Not bad.If this team could score it would be awesome. Of course a lot of teams aren't scoring these days.

I read somewhere recently that 55 pts, based on last year, would get you into the playoffs. Need to finish with 29 points in 20 games. That would be tough.

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Old
03-14-2013, 10:25 PM
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db2011
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Someone made a good point in another thread recently about the schedule this year being all against the West and how that affects things like point projections.

I'd still be highly surprised to see us make the playoffs, but at least it's some part of the conversation. These games aren't yet throwaways

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Old
03-14-2013, 10:36 PM
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blahblah
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Originally Posted by davidbklyn View Post
Someone made a good point in another thread recently about the schedule this year being all against the West and how that affects things like point projections.

I'd still be highly surprised to see us make the playoffs, but at least it's some part of the conversation. These games aren't yet throwaways
The Jackets are learning the rules. One rule I mention a lot. If you are going to lose a game, do it in OT. If the Jackets hadn't started off so poor, they would have the recipe for what they need to get into the playoffs. With so many road games coming up, they aren't really in the conversation yet. In order to get there, they would need to learn how to win on the road. We can just pick up points in most games on the road. They have to win on the road.

No evidence to support, yet, they have learned that lesson.

The reality is, right now, we are probably 15th in the West. 2 points up with other teams with 3 games in hand? Odds are good that it doesn't hold up.

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Old
03-14-2013, 11:37 PM
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Just because I was thinking about this, I'll share...

Games left (as of 3/15/13) teams in order of rank at the moment

CHI = 0
ANA = 1H, 1A
VAN = 1A
STL = 1H, 1A
LAK = 1A
MIN = 1H, 1A
PHX = 1H
DET = 0
SJS = 1H, 1A
NSH = 2H, 2A
DAL = 1A
EDM = 1A
CAL = 1H, 1A
COL = 1A

Blah - if we go by pt% we are 14th in the West right now. Not sure if Colorado is playing tonight they are last.

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Old
03-14-2013, 11:51 PM
  #16
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We might get in the playoffs by finishing 10-4-6 or 9-3-8. It would make sense considering the ridiculous number of games we've brought to overtime.

What has me concerned is that tonight vs. Chicago we were outplayed, just as we were vs. Vancouver. If Bob even regresses to an elite .930 save percentage we don't get any points in these games. Our team game in the two weeks before Vancouver was better, and we have to get it back there to make the playoffs.

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Old
03-15-2013, 12:03 AM
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Fro
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posted this in GDT but this works too

Let's see, recapping, we're 2pts north of 15th, 3pts south of 8th, but 2 games out of hand, Rags are in 9th, and LA only 2pts north of 9th

and Sports Club Stats basically says we need 13 wins to get in

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Old
03-15-2013, 12:08 AM
  #18
DekeLikeYouMeanIt
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Great run, guys. Bob has looked amazing.

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Old
03-15-2013, 05:38 AM
  #19
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Its nice to be within reach, but what did they say last night, after this home stretch the final 12 of 17 games are on the road.

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Old
03-15-2013, 06:33 AM
  #20
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Oilers fan here. Just wanted to compliment you guys on the recent point streak. Very impressed by your teams compete level and level of play as of late. Hopefully they can keep it up!

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Old
03-15-2013, 06:53 AM
  #21
EspenK
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Worst Best
PTS PTS


ANA = 1H, 1A 0 2
VAN = 1A 0 1
STL = 1H, 1A 1 3
LAK = 1A 0 1
MIN = 1H, 1A 1 3
PHX = 1H 1 2
DET = 0
SJS = 1H, 1A 2 4
NSH = 2H, 2A 4 6
DAL = 1A 1 2
EDM = 1A 0 2
CAL = 1H, 1A 2 4
COL = 1A 0 2

12 30

While the intelligentsia will be quick to point out the folly of such an exercise I like to look at this kind of "analysis". Reality is almost certainly somewhere in the middle but I could see either scenario or something close to them playing out.

Edit: I am format challenged but I'm sure you can figure it out

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Old
03-15-2013, 07:08 AM
  #22
Roadman
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At the beginning of the year I pegged the Jacket to be a .500 team. They would get off to a slow start given the turnover in roster and coaching. But would rally once things started to click.

Predicted 20-20-8 for 48 pts. and 10th -12 in the standings. A finish of 10-8-2 puts them right there. Given the questions surrounding the club to start, such a suggestion was considered optimistic. They may yet crash and burn but I like their chances.

Regardless, they have worked hard, they have been entertaining, and they are certainly laying the foundation for success. They are all the things we wanted them to be. But I do not see the playoffs happening this year. Would love to be wrong.


Last edited by Roadman: 03-15-2013 at 07:25 AM.
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Old
03-15-2013, 07:56 AM
  #23
JACKETfan
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Happy but realistic.

Bob is on a hot streak.
History suggests it will not last.
And we have not been consistently scoring enough goals to put teams away.

Many good teams have that extra gear.
We have been playing in our highest gear and its still not enough many nights, and doubtfully sustainable.

Every game I hope they prove me wrong. But last night's game v Chicago was a good example. We played lights out, had MANY great chances, and managed one goal, --that's not even the Claude Noel standard.

Finding that extra gear is this off season's challenge.
.

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Old
03-15-2013, 08:43 AM
  #24
BluejacketNut
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The only problem is we're not scoring enough, the streak has been due to some amazing goaltending. If not for Bob last night, that game could have easily been 5-1. There's still no scoring threat on this team and I dont think Bob can stay this hot forever.

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Old
03-15-2013, 09:02 AM
  #25
Roadman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BluejacketNut View Post
The only problem is we're not scoring enough, the streak has been due to some amazing goaltending. If not for Bob last night, that game could have easily been 5-1. There's still no scoring threat on this team and I dont think Bob can stay this hot forever.
Crawford did a pretty good job last night as well. It was not all on the Jackets, they weren't shooting at an empty net.

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