HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > National Hockey League Talk
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
National Hockey League Talk Discuss NHL players, teams, games, and the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The success of Anaheim shows that Boudreau is an excellent coach.

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
03-20-2013, 01:02 AM
  #126
svat
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 837
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
Certain things in hockey can be measured and quantified. A team, for example, can be fast. They can be big. Physical. Offensively inclined. Defensively inclined. And so on and so forth.

How do you measure luck? Where is the line between a team making its own luck, and a team that has a horseshoe up their rear? Who decides when a team is lucky? You? Me? What about the players. If they keep winning most of the games, when does it stop being lucky and start being evidence of a good team?
you measure luck by looking at percentages. PDO. outlier percentages. unsustainable shooting percentages. sound familiar?

when does it start to become indicative of true talent level? at around 80 games.

svat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:12 AM
  #127
Sojourn
Global Moderator
Where's the kaboom?
 
Sojourn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Country: United States
Posts: 25,195
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by svat View Post
you measure luck by looking at percentages. PDO. outlier percentages. unsustainable shooting percentages. sound familiar?

when does it start to become indicative of true talent level? at around 80 games.
So you measure luck by looking at percentages which have little to no context.

And you judge a team, not by watching them, but by looking at statistics. So, just so we're clear: watching games isn't important, because stats tell you everything you need to know... -except- that Anaheim's record is a statistic, but we'll just ignore that, because who cares whether a team wins or loses, so long as they win the Fenwick Cup.

I think we're clear on things now. Enjoy your evening.

Sojourn is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:15 AM
  #128
svat
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 837
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
So you measure luck by looking at percentages which have little to no context.

And you judge a team, not by watching them, but by looking at statistics. So, just so we're clear: watching games isn't important, because stats tell you everything you need to know... -except- that Anaheim's record is a statistic, but we'll just ignore that, because who cares whether a team wins or loses, so long as they win the Fenwick Cup.

I think we're clear on things now. Enjoy your evening.
anaheims percentages have lots of context, see the wild last year, the avalanche a couple years ago, the leafs last year

I know it hurts to hear a team you have a rooting interest in is not nearly as good as you believe and they appear to be, but once you can accept the truth the inevitable losses will become much easier to cope with

svat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:18 AM
  #129
Noob616
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Halifax
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,385
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by svat View Post
you measure luck by looking at percentages. PDO. outlier percentages. unsustainable shooting percentages. sound familiar?

when does it start to become indicative of true talent level? at around 80 games.
I'm a proponent of these statistics but to say that at 80 games the stats become true indicators is a bit of a copout. 80 games is usually roughly enough to filter out absurdly high save/shooting percentages, but there's still a ton of statistical noise at that mark.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
Certain things in hockey can be measured and quantified. A team, for example, can be fast. They can be big. Physical. Offensively inclined. Defensively inclined. And so on and so forth.

How do you measure luck? Where is the line between a team making its own luck, and a team that has a horseshoe up their rear? Who decides when a team is lucky? You? Me? What about the players. If they keep winning most of the games, when does it stop being lucky and start being evidence of a good team?
It's not that the fancy stats guys are putting a label on Anaheim and saying they've got a horseshoe up their rear and they're a terrible team, it's more just that they're benefiting from some extremely high save and shooting percentages that don't really pass the sniff test. Fasth is looking like an above average goalie, but expecting Vezina calibre play from him as his true talent level long term is a stretch.

As for shooting percentages, there's a list of players that are far outperforming their own career averages, and the Ducks are well in excess of the NHL average. It's not to say that they aren't above average shooters (their roster suggests that they are), but the shooting percentages are just beyond good and into crazy good. That's where the word unsustainable comes in to play. It's doubtful that Getzlaf, a career 12% shooter, has suddenly had a revelation to score at an 18% clip. Koivu is doubling his career SH%, Cogliano is nearly doubling his.

I can buy that Boudreau's system leads to capitalizing on high percentage chances and would drive up shooting percentages, but the amount by which they're driven up suggests that there's some luck involved. The combination of a very high team shooting percentage and a high save percentage as well as being a low puck possession team leads to a reasonable belief that the Ducks aren't a top 5 team in the league. I don't think they're going to have a catastrophic fall in the standings nor do I believe they'd have one in an 82 game season, but I don't believe they're a top 5 team (nor do I believe my team (Montreal)) is.

Noob616 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:20 AM
  #130
DuckJet
Mr. Sexy on Skates
 
DuckJet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Funkytown
Country: Kazakhstan
Posts: 37,639
vCash: 831
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Zetterberg Era View Post
I could see that happening. The same fear factor doesn't exists with Anaheim though when you talk about playoff teams. This is not a slap at them but LA and Chicago scare me more. Then again that is just my opinion. I did spend most of the summer and lockout pointing out the Ducks would be this years Devils, in that they were a championship contender that had an abnormally bad year and should bounce back.

They are a very good team, but now with this start you're stacking them up against the best. For me they are still the 5th best team in the league, behind Chicago, Pittsburgh, Boston, and LA. They have earned the right for people to argue they are better, but there backline still doesn't do it for me and I expect their secondary scoring to slow some.
Not offended at all. Both teams (CHI and ANA) have had their share of games where they won games where they didn't put up the best possible effort but still got wins.. Chicago just had fewer. I don't think Chicago is worse than Anaheim at all and I'd agree that Anaheim is probably playing a bit above their own heads, but they're still a threat, and a large part of it is Boudreau's coaching style. No idea what's wrong with their backline.

DuckJet is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:24 AM
  #131
Syckle78
Registered User
 
Syckle78's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Redford, MI
Country: Belgium
Posts: 5,572
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by svat View Post
anaheims percentages have lots of context, see the wild last year, the avalanche a couple years ago, the leafs last year

I know it hurts to hear a team you have a rooting interest in is not nearly as good as you believe and they appear to be, but once you can accept the truth the inevitable losses will become much easier to cope with
You do realize no one thought those teams were good, right? The Ducks have proven talent in the lineup a good coach and goaltending. They are not those teams. Last year was the fluke.

Now excuse me while I go guzzle mouthwash. I threw up in my mouth defending the Ducks.

Syckle78 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:24 AM
  #132
svat
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 837
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noob616 View Post
I'm a proponent of these statistics but to say that at 80 games the stats become true indicators is a bit of a copout. 80 games is usually roughly enough to filter out absurdly high save/shooting percentages, but there's still a ton of statistical noise at that mark.



It's not that the fancy stats guys are putting a label on Anaheim and saying they've got a horseshoe up their rear and they're a terrible team, it's more just that they're benefiting from some extremely high save and shooting percentages that don't really pass the sniff test. Fasth is looking like an above average goalie, but expecting Vezina calibre play from him as his true talent level long term is a stretch.

As for shooting percentages, there's a list of players that are far outperforming their own career averages, and the Ducks are well in excess of the NHL average. It's not to say that they aren't above average shooters (their roster suggests that they are), but the shooting percentages are just beyond good and into crazy good. That's where the word unsustainable comes in to play. It's doubtful that Getzlaf, a career 12% shooter, has suddenly had a revelation to score at an 18% clip. Koivu is doubling his career SH%, Cogliano is nearly doubling his.

I can buy that Boudreau's system leads to capitalizing on high percentage chances and would drive up shooting percentages, but the amount by which they're driven up suggests that there's some luck involved. The combination of a very high team shooting percentage and a high save percentage as well as being a low puck possession team leads to a reasonable belief that the Ducks aren't a top 5 team in the league. I don't think they're going to have a catastrophic fall in the standings nor do I believe they'd have one in an 82 game season, but I don't believe they're a top 5 team (nor do I believe my team (Montreal)) is.
it's not a copout, I said at around 80 games. never said it is the 100% true talent level, but it's a pretty good benchmark. the poor possession teams at that point still in the playoffs are usually riding good special teams, a bit of luck and decent goaltending (or a combination of those or whatever).

svat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:25 AM
  #133
xking23
Petersson
 
xking23's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Peterborough
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,313
vCash: 500
Anahiem is a team with all the talent (now locked up Wanted Perry in Ottawa) comparable to basically any team, Perry - Getzlaf - Ryan is a great line, 3 star players. Fasth is looking good in nets. Thier team D is great, everyone works as a unit.

I dunno as a Sens fan I feel these advance stats aren't accurate. Ottawa shouldn't be winning yet they are (expecting a fall off), due to current lack of skill. Anahiem has the skill to win, I don't know why this is being questioned.

xking23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:29 AM
  #134
Ducksforcup
Registered User
 
Ducksforcup's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Anaheim, California
Country: United States
Posts: 10,597
vCash: 50
I understand the arguments. I mean the Ducks do consistently get out-shot and absolutely have taken advantage of the shoot-out more than most.

What I don't get is why people think Anaheim will suddenly fall off and collapse. Eighteen games over .500, +26 goal differential, three regulation losses...are these really the marks of an vastly overachieving team? I personally think that this team is a legit contender and the record proves it. Have they won games they shouldn't have? Sure, just look at the last Minnesota game for example (a big character win btw). On the whole though, this team has balanced scoring, good goaltending, and solid team defense to go along with a number one ranked PP and an improving PK.

Ducksforcup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:30 AM
  #135
Finlandia WOAT
Do U Like Quebec?
 
Finlandia WOAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Raleigh NC
Country: United States
Posts: 9,349
vCash: 500
He was always a great coach.

The problem was that he lost his room.

Finlandia WOAT is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:31 AM
  #136
DuckJet
Mr. Sexy on Skates
 
DuckJet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Funkytown
Country: Kazakhstan
Posts: 37,639
vCash: 831
Quote:
Originally Posted by xking23 View Post
Anahiem is a team with all the talent (now locked up Wanted Perry in Ottawa) comparable to basically any team, Perry - Getzlaf - Ryan is a great line, 3 star players. Fasth is looking good in nets. Thier team D is great, everyone works as a unit.

I dunno as a Sens fan I feel these advance stats aren't accurate. Ottawa shouldn't be winning yet they are (expecting a fall off), due to current lack of skill. Anahiem has the skill to win, I don't know why this is being questioned.
Small market team. Everyone predicted them to be at the bottom and now they don't want to be wrong so they can't wait for them to blow up. I don't know. Ducks aren't the first team to do really well and have low Fenwick, yet I've never seen so many people use it to predict "inevitable failure".

DuckJet is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:33 AM
  #137
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
 
KINGS17's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Country: United States
Posts: 15,606
vCash: 500
Boudreau had the same kind of regular season success in Washington. Let's see how his system does in the playoffs in the Western Conference before we judge.

KINGS17 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:33 AM
  #138
KEEROLE Vatanen
Failures Of Fenwick
 
KEEROLE Vatanen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 18,143
vCash: 500
it's funny how people continue to talk about Fasth, when his play HAS leveled out and Anaheim STILL keeps winning, and how Jonas Hiller returning to form is just completely ignored

KEEROLE Vatanen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:37 AM
  #139
Gliff
Wild Bill
 
Gliff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: California
Country: United States
Posts: 9,024
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
Boudreau had the same kind of regular season success in Washington. Let's see how his system does in the playoffs in the Western Conference before we judge.
This system is a defense first 4 line team. It is not like we are throwing everything at scoring.

Gliff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:52 AM
  #140
gratefulyours
Great 8 = T. Selanne
 
gratefulyours's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Oakland
Country: United States
Posts: 4,542
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by svat View Post
Anyone who knows what they are talking about when it comes to advanced stats is extremely aware of the amount of luck that is involved in hockey and the playoffs. of course anaheim COULD win the cup, what most people that follow PDO are saying is that its unlikely, the ducks are already getting lucky and it is extremely unlikely that this luck will continue. a lot can happen in the playoffs, but you shouldn't EXPECT much good to happen for anaheim. again, it could, and i can guarantee anaheim fans are saving some of these posts and they will be held above anyone who is bringing up PDO's heads should the ducks actually win, but it would be pointless.

after 30 games the standings are closer to true talent but there is still a lot of statistical noise left.
82 games would still leave statistical noise as well, the statistics would take years to even out and become what your defining as "true talent".

this is the fundamental flaw as no team plays the same year in and year out. injuries, trades, retirements all come into effect...not to mention the additions and subtractions of other teams, rule changes, reffing, etc.

there are to many variables that fluctuate from year to year for any statistical system to hold absolute.

gratefulyours is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:53 AM
  #141
duckaroosky
So sayeth Duckthulu
 
duckaroosky's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Long Beach, Ca
Posts: 24,223
vCash: 500
My head hurts after reading this thread, it's like watching The View..... Can we just have a stickied thread about advanced stats so things stay more on topic?

I have welcomed the change of pace that Boudreau brought. The players look happier and seem to be having more fun.

duckaroosky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 01:55 AM
  #142
KingLB
Registered User
 
KingLB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 7,236
vCash: 500
If I was a Ducks fan, what would concern me is they don't have a star defensemen. That's what recent history has shown you need to win the Cup. FB isn't elite.

KingLB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 02:27 AM
  #143
Sean Garrity
#51in15 eh?
 
Sean Garrity's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: The Nut
Country: United States
Posts: 9,118
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Highway to Cap Hell View Post
He was always a great coach.

The problem was that he lost his room.
This. Great coaches loose rooms, it happens and sometimes the best thing is a change of scenery

Quote:
Originally Posted by KingLB View Post
If I was a Ducks fan, what would concern me is they don't have a star defensemen. That's what recent history has shown you need to win the Cup. FB isn't elite.
The Penguins, Hurricanes, and Lightning disagree. They had dmen that played at an elite level during their runs, whether or not Beauch can do that for an extended period of time is still up for a debate. For reference though, Beauchemin lead the guess who lead the Ducks' in TOI during their cup run.

Sean Garrity is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 02:31 AM
  #144
HockeyThoughts
Delivering The Truth
 
HockeyThoughts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Ottawa
Country: Canada
Posts: 10,432
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ishdul View Post
Anaheim has gotten absurd luck, with the highest shooting percentage post lockout and getting very fluky good goaltending from Fasth (unless you actually think he's a Vezina calibre goaltender), which covers up for the fact that they're a terrible possession team with the 6th worst Fenwick and 3rd worst Corsi in the league. They are this year's Minnesota but with only 20 games to collapse instead of 50. They will regress heavily. Boudreau is also a bad coach but mostly for other reasons.
Nice to know you watch the games..

HockeyThoughts is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 02:33 AM
  #145
AngelDuck
Registered User
 
AngelDuck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 6,935
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by KingLB View Post
If I was a Ducks fan, what would concern me is they don't have a star defensemen. That's what recent history has shown you need to win the Cup. FB isn't elite.
FB has been elite this year. Definitely more elite then Drew Doughty just fyi. So by that logic, the Kings don't have an elite defenseman...They're screwed!

AngelDuck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 02:34 AM
  #146
KEEROLE Vatanen
Failures Of Fenwick
 
KEEROLE Vatanen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 18,143
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by KingLB View Post
If I was a Ducks fan, what would concern me is they don't have a star defensemen. That's what recent history has shown you need to win the Cup. FB isn't elite.
Except Beauchemin is playing like a star defensemen, and Fowler has been showing that ability more and more lately. Fowler's problem is injury setbacks this year

Beauchemin is +19, 18 points, plays all situations, and is incredible in 1 on 1 battles, he is easily one of the strongest players in the league

KEEROLE Vatanen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 02:36 AM
  #147
Vipers31
Moderator
Advanced Stagnostic
 
Vipers31's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Bergisch Gladbach
Country: Germany
Posts: 11,418
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ishdul View Post
Fasth's goaltending numbers have him as roughly as good as Lundqvist (with a .931 even strength save percentage and .896 save percentage), so yeah, I'd say Vezina calibre applies. He's due for some major regression.
If you'd say that is Vezina caliber, then you just show you have no idea about goaltending. It isn't about numbers. Brian Elliott wasn't a Vezina caliber goalie last season, in spite of his numbers. Neither is Fasth now, and he's not close to Lundqvist. If you actually had seen games and knew to evaluate goaltending, that would be quite easy to see.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ishdul View Post
The rest of your post was the same "my team actually only takes super cool shots and allows only weak ass shots" non-sense that the other guy posted.
Ah, you mean that "the team with with the good record is doing a lot of the things that good teams actually want to do, like, not allowing good shots" non-sense? How disconnected from the actual game of hockey does one have to be at the point you start saying things like that? It's basically a definition of what an actual hockey team wants to do. The point of hockey isn't to eliminate all shots. It's not an goal worthy of attaining. Just because statistically, it has proven to be the best indicator/projector, doesn't make it a great one, and it even far less makes it a good blueprint to play the game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ishdul View Post
But hey, because I disagree you, I'm sure that means I don't watch the games or do anything to interpret the stats.
Well, if you do, you do a great job of hiding anything that goes beyond that stat-watching. Many things would become very evident even upon limited viewing time. I don't have a problem with people disagreeing with me. But it's incredibly annoying to see people lack an understanding of the limitations of the numbers they are taking as god's word, basically. There's more respect given to these numbers than to the realities of the game. Even such simple ones as the ones in the 2nd paragraph, that people would actually challenge what good play constitutes, even while successful. It's painful.

Vipers31 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 02:43 AM
  #148
vippe
Registered User
 
vippe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Sweden
Country: Sweden
Posts: 10,906
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to vippe
I miss him on the caps. Even though he's a whiny one

vippe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 05:18 AM
  #149
pesko
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 391
vCash: 500
Ducks are doing all the right things right now. Boudreau has made several changes in the way the team plays, which are contributing to their success. I see the difference between last year's and this year's teams as follows:

1) Several prospects are successfully being brought into the system. While none of them are Calder caliber, Ducks have new prospects playing in top and bottom-6 roles, and they're doing a great job. Established but young roster players like Cogliano and Beleskey are also playing their best hockey yet under Boudreau's system.

2) Ducks are rolling 4 lines and playing a disciplined defensive system. They're controlling the neutral zone well and are blocking shots and not giving up quality scoring chances. Fasth & Hiller have been good, but the players in front of them are making it easier for them. This aspect of their game has actually improved as the season has progressed.

3) Special teams are another thing that has only gotten better lately. Power play is leading the league and penalty kill has as of late been better than the stats suggest. Ducks have a very versatile roster and can utilize a lot of their players in special team. This has kept the team going despite injuries and Perry's suspension.

4) They are playing with a ton of confidence, and they are clicking in the locker room. The mental aspect of a winning hockey team are hard to quantify, but they are so important. It's the biggest impact a coach can have on the team, to be able to build a team spirit that never gives up and fights back despite the setbacks. The mental difference between Ducks now and a year ago is night and day.

pesko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-20-2013, 05:51 AM
  #150
loobarlow
Registered User
 
loobarlow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Durham, NC
Country: United States
Posts: 566
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to loobarlow
Let's remember this thread later in the season and into the playoffs.

I tend to give math more credit than a lot of you guys. It's better than gut feeling.

loobarlow is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:06 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.