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Old
04-05-2013, 05:15 PM
  #126
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It's the same reason we kept getting beat by the Blues last year except you like to blame Tmac for that when the fact is they just matched up well against us. Same with us vs the Kings.
That was absolutely Tmac's fault. I even went so far last year as to guarantee the Blues would beat us easily (if they faced us) and then would get their ass handed to them in the 2nd round. Which they did. Why? Because the trap doesn't work, they relied on it almost completely and as soon as you put a coach against them that knows how to exploit the trap, they'll get exposed, and they did.

Sharks could have easily beaten the Blues, they just refused to play a system that was capable of doing that, and Tmac refused to adjust in anyway to do so. He has not been a good bench coach, he has not adapted well to changes mid game. All of the sudden he seems to be changing his ways, which is why I am kind of stunned. I'm hesitant to get excited knowing him, but right now he did what needed to be done so I have to give him kudo's for that.

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04-05-2013, 05:17 PM
  #127
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The Blues were just a much better team than us, plain and simple. The Kings were similarly a much better team than the Blues.

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04-05-2013, 05:19 PM
  #128
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That was absolutely Tmac's fault. I even went so far last year as to guarantee the Blues would beat us easily (if they faced us) and then would get their ass handed to them in the 2nd round. Which they did. Why? Because the trap doesn't work, they relied on it almost completely and as soon as you put a coach against them that knows how to exploit the trap, they'll get exposed, and they did.

Sharks could have easily beaten the Blues, they just refused to play a system that was capable of doing that, and Tmac refused to adjust in anyway to do so. He has not been a good bench coach, he has not adapted well to changes mid game. All of the sudden he seems to be changing his ways, which is why I am kind of stunned. I'm hesitant to get excited knowing him, but right now he did what needed to be done so I have to give him kudo's for that.
You're convinced Tmac is an idiot and nothing's gonna convince you otherwise. Your blinded by your dogma. Thinking that an NHL coach can't see what you see and try and adjust is some kinda hutzpa. It was the match up and the players more than anything - Full Stop! Just like it is now on our current run.

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04-05-2013, 05:22 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
You're convinced Tmac is an idiot and nothing's gonna convince you otherwise. Your blinded by your dogma. Thinking that an NHL coach can't see what you see and try and adjust is some kinda hutzpa. It was the match up and the players more than anything - Full Stop! Just like it is now on our current run.

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04-05-2013, 05:25 PM
  #130
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You're convinced Tmac is an idiot and nothing's gonna convince you otherwise. Your blinded by your dogma. Thinking that an NHL coach can't see what you see and try and adjust is some kinda hutzpa. It was the match up and the players more than anything - Full Stop! Just like it is now on our current run.
The two biggest reasons the Sharks lost were that Pavelski was injured, and Marleau played a stretch of the worst hockey I've ever seen him play in my life. If Pavs is healthy or Marleau doesn't blow chunks, it's a much closer series. Still, the Blues were a much better team than the Sharks, particularly in terms of forward depth. I think TMac could have done more to adjust, but I also blame Marleau and our bottom-6 (and DW for constructing it) more thanI blame TMac.

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04-05-2013, 05:26 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
You're convince Tmac is an idiot and nothing's gonna convince you otherwise. Your blinded by your dogma. Thinking that an NHL coach can't see what you see and try and adjust is some kinda hutzpa. It was the match up and the players more than anything - Full Stop!
And believing Coaches are without fault or defect is equally as naive. If anything, the fact that I was screaming for the Sharks to make exactly this change for the last year, and then they do and all of the sudden magically start winning should tell you something. I wasn't the only one either. It took Todd over a year to figure out what the rest of us figured out long ago.

We ALL knew what was wrong with the PK, yet Todd REFUSED to change it, for over a season. He finally does at the beginning of this season and we immediately have one of the best PK's in the league. It was never a roster problem, any team can be taught to PK well, this was 100% a coaching failure. This recent system change is the same thing, someone or something finally got through to him and he made a dramatic change to the way the Sharks are playing hockey. The players didn't wake up one day and decide "hey, let's play a totally different system and ignore the coach". It has nothing to do with effort, they are playing a working system. You can choose to ignore that, but the results speak for themselves. Even through all of that, Todd is a very young coach still and he's still learning, he seems to be going in the right direction finally, and that's great.

Calling him an idiot is just me venting. He's really not an idiot, you don't get to be an NHL coach by being an idiot (well... there is Milbury). What I should say is, he's making way too many mistakes. Which he was. I'm willing to see if this 'new' Todd sticks around, I think he's a smart guy and capable of being a good coach, he just hasn't shown that yet.

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04-05-2013, 05:30 PM
  #132
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The Blues were just a much better team than us, plain and simple. The Kings were similarly a much better team than the Blues.
I don't agree. While they may be better on paper (may be) they were, and are, very young. They had two goaltenders that had hugely propped up stats (because of the system/trap) and were riding that. They've got a great team, but much like Edmonton (not saying Edmonton is equally as good) they lack experience. The Kings were no doubt a better team, they won, but I honestly think if they still had Murray as coach they would have lost.

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04-05-2013, 05:39 PM
  #133
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I don't agree. While they may be better on paper (may be) they were, and are, very young. They had two goaltenders that had hugely propped up stats (because of the system/trap) and were riding that. They've got a great team, but much like Edmonton (not saying Edmonton is equally as good) they lack experience. The Kings were no doubt a better team, they won, but I honestly think if they still had Murray as coach they would have lost.
I think Carter had a bigger impact than Sutter. As for St. Louis... David Backes was having a career year, legitimately one of the best forwards in the league at controlling possession in hard minutes. He has not been nearly as good this year. Nor has Oshie, and they were St. Louis' two big guns. I really don't know what to think about the Blues right now. They're clearly a better team than their record (I'm hoping they don't make the playoffs, for the record, or that they end up with the 8th seed and upset Chicago), and have similar goalie struggles to LA although their goaltenders aren't in Quick's league. I still think they're a team to watch out for. I could see them beating any of the top-3 seeds.

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04-05-2013, 05:41 PM
  #134
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Well, I guess "right" is not what I meant to say, but he's got the right idea.

Anyway, ironically, this fabulous article from FTF comes out just as we're having this discussion, highlighting the differences between this win streak and the one from the beginning of the year. Good read.

I think the biggest misconception is that just because you believe in stats means you can't believe in the human element. I absolutely believe in the human element. I just also believe that it too is reflected in the stats. A stat like Corsi doesn't measure someone's talent. It measures pure results, not the manner in which they were attained.
Statistics is hard for many mathematicians to grok. It took me years to appreciate statistics, because, as a mathematician, I'm expecting a hard result to most everything. With stats, you have all this degrees of freedom nonsense , sample sizes, t tests, etc. It's not just x + 6 = 12, therefore x = 6.

Stats can help you make a reasonably sound guess, but it's still a guess. After all, that guy with the 1 in 312,324,345,331,456 chance of winning the lottery still won the lottery.

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04-05-2013, 05:42 PM
  #135
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And believing Coaches are without fault or defect is equally as naive.
I don't believe Tmac or any coach is without his faults. I just put most of the blame on other things like talent, injuries, match-ups, etc...

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If anything, the fact that I was screaming for the Sharks to make exactly this change for the last year, and then they do and all of the sudden magically start winning should tell you something. I wasn't the only one either. It took Todd over a year to figure out what the rest of us figured out long ago.
We had 1 player gone and one player hurt that both slowed us down. Now we have 3 of the slowest Sharks out of town. Different talent leads a coach to be able to play a different game. But the players also don't always do what the coach wants during game. Hockey is dynamic and instinct takes over in a second.

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We ALL knew what was wrong with the PK, yet Todd REFUSED to change it, for over a season. He finally does at the beginning of this season and we immediately have one of the best PK's in the league. It was never a roster problem, any team can be taught to PK well, this was 100% a coaching failure. This recent system change is the same thing, someone or something finally got through to him and he made a dramatic change to the way the Sharks are playing hockey. The players didn't wake up one day and decide "hey, let's play a totally different system and ignore the coach". It has nothing to do with effort, they are playing a working system. You can choose to ignore that, but the results speak for themselves. Even through all of that, Todd is a very young coach still and he's still learning, he seems to be going in the right direction finally, and that's great.
You are simply wrong here and Robinson said so in the STH's meeting. The players didn't trust each other and kept falling back instead of being more aggressive. Basically he said there was a trust issue that spiraled out of control.



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Calling him an idiot is just me venting. He's really not an idiot, you don't get to be an NHL coach by being an idiot (well... there is Milbury). What I should say is, he's making way too many mistakes. Which he was. I'm willing to see if this 'new' Todd sticks around, I think he's a smart guy and capable of being a good coach, he just hasn't shown that yet.
And I just think you put too much blame on him. They friggin' do this for a living. They watch hours of tape a day trying to figure out how to make the team better and showing players what they want them to do. When a coach comes out and says he wants this in public and you still don't see it on the ice how does that not help convince you.

Now I can see when it gets to the point where a coach wears out his welcome. That happens a lot. I saw nor heard any rumblings that's been the case here. But during that slump Tmac suddenly wasn't a good or great coach. He lucked into a talented team and has slowly ruined it. That's absurd IMO. The only explanation that leads to is the players have stopped listening the coach and are just playing the way they want to now. And I have to believe even you don't believe that.

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04-05-2013, 05:45 PM
  #136
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Statistics is hard for many mathematicians to grok. It took me years to appreciate statistics, because, as a mathematician, I'm expecting a hard result to most everything. With stats, you have all this degrees of freedom nonsense , sample sizes, t tests, etc. It's not just x + 6 = 12, therefore x = 6.

Stats can help you make a reasonably sound guess, but it's still a guess. After all, that guy with the 1 in 312,324,345,331,456 chance of winning the lottery still won the lottery.
Basically said what I was trying to say more succinctly. Pure 'eye test' is a bad way to evaluate. Pure stats is a bad way to evaluate. You have to find a happy medium, at least with hockey.

Also, my Dad plays the lottery all the time. I constantly tell him "The lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math". He never listens.

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04-05-2013, 05:47 PM
  #137
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Statistics is hard for many mathematicians to grok. It took me years to appreciate statistics, because, as a mathematician, I'm expecting a hard result to most everything. With stats, you have all this degrees of freedom nonsense , sample sizes, t tests, etc. It's not just x + 6 = 12, therefore x = 6.

Stats can help you make a reasonably sound guess, but it's still a guess. After all, that guy with the 1 in 312,324,345,331,456 chance of winning the lottery still won the lottery.
Absolutely. I took a serious stats class last spring, learned all about t-tests and reasonable doubt and things like that which helped me immensely in exploring the hockey-stats community.

The thing that hockey statisticians emphasis is that they're is so much luck involved in hockey. I believe the number uncovered by one study I read was that about 25% of hockey is luck. That's the most of any sport, I believe.

The difference between hockey and baseball, for example, is that in hockey there is so much luck involved that you cannot predict wins. You can only predict which team has a better chance of winning, and let chance do the rest. You can look at trends, you can make overarching statements about results, but you cannot explain them. I understand that that's probably one of the reasons that adv. stats are so looked down upon by hockey fans, because of the fallacy that if you can't explain everything, nothing you can explain should be considered valid.

That's were the eye test comes in. I never use pure stats. That's why I watch so many hockey games that don't involve SJ, because I want to have an explanation for what the stats tell me.

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04-05-2013, 05:51 PM
  #138
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Kings were 16-8-1 post-Carter trade in the regular season. The pre-Carter Kings were merely good. The post-Carter Kings were elite.
The post-Murray Sharks are 6-0-0.

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04-05-2013, 05:51 PM
  #139
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The post-Murray Sharks are 6-0-0.
Fenwick that!

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04-05-2013, 05:56 PM
  #140
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Absolutely. I took a serious stats class last spring, learned all about t-tests and reasonable doubt and things like that which helped me immensely in exploring the hockey-stats community.

The thing that hockey statisticians emphasis is that they're is so much luck involved in hockey. I believe the number uncovered by one study I read was that about 25% of hockey is luck. That's the most of any sport, I believe.

The difference between hockey and baseball, for example, is that in hockey there is so much luck involved that you cannot predict wins. You can only predict which team has a better chance of winning, and let chance do the rest. You can look at trends, you can make overarching statements about results, but you cannot explain them. I understand that that's probably one of the reasons that adv. stats are so looked down upon by hockey fans, because of the fallacy that if you can't explain everything, nothing you can explain should be considered valid.

That's were the eye test comes in. I never use pure stats. That's why I watch so many hockey games that don't involve SJ, because I want to have an explanation for what the stats tell me.
the fact that luck is such a determining factor in hockey, just makes stats just that much more useless then anything. it also makes it that much more useless for the eye ball test to.

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04-05-2013, 06:04 PM
  #141
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Fenwick that!
Sharks are 53.3% since then. You just got Fenwick'd.

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04-05-2013, 06:04 PM
  #142
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I wish the Sharks would draft someone named Fenwick

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04-05-2013, 06:06 PM
  #143
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I wish the Sharks would draft someone named Fenwick
and corsi

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04-05-2013, 06:06 PM
  #144
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I don't believe Tmac or any coach is without his faults. I just put most of the blame on other things like talent, injuries, match-ups, etc...



We had 1 player gone and one player hurt that both slowed us down. Now we have 3 of the slowest Sharks out of town. Different talent leads a coach to be able to play a different game. But the players also don't always do what the coach wants during game. Hockey is dynamic and instinct takes over in a second.



You are simply wrong here and Robinson said so in the STH's meeting. The players didn't trust each other and kept falling back instead of being more aggressive. Basically he said there was a trust issue that spiraled out of control.





And I just think you put too much blame on him. They friggin' do this for a living. They watch hours of tape a day trying to figure out how to make the team better and showing players what they want them to do. When a coach comes out and says he wants this in public and you still don't see it on the ice how does that not help convince you.

Now I can see when it gets to the point where a coach wears out his welcome. That happens a lot. I saw nor heard any rumblings that's been the case here. But during that slump Tmac suddenly wasn't a good or great coach. He lucked into a talented team and has slowly ruined it. That's absurd IMO. The only explanation that leads to is the players have stopped listening the coach and are just playing the way they want to now. And I have to believe even you don't believe that.
Todd McLellan came out and said he wanted the sharks to cycle and grind and not get into a track-meet. Now he's got them track-meeting every night. The only explanation for that is he thought Murray, Handzus and Clowe were SO bad that they would lose even more badly if they played the system they are playing now with those guys. I think that a) losing is losing, and they were losing badly and b) he didn't HAVE to ice those players, and c) even if he did for some reason (Wilson told him to) then why keep doing it for two months when it clearly was not working?

I get what you are saying, you have general faith in the guy because its his specialty. I've just worked with too many supposed 'experts' on things who didn't have a godamn clue what they were doing to take that for granted. Amazingly enough some people can spend all their time doing something, and still do it badly. In McLellan's case, like I said, I don't think he's stupid, but sometimes when you are on the inside of something it's impossible to get perspective. He had a couple of assistants who clearly were not cut out for it and were likely 'yes' men and he wasn't seeing what needed to happen. It happens, I've done it myself, one of the biggest lessons i've learned in my career is to always get a second set of eyes on complicated stuff. I don't think that was happening.

It's like trying to solve your own relationship problems. Sometimes you simply cannot see the problem and you need a friend to step in and tell you what's going on. You may know far more about your own relationship, but an outside perspective can simply see things you do not. Would I make a good head coach? hell no, I don't have the patience or the experience, but I also don't have a biased perspective and I am a reasonably intelligent guy who has played a lot of hockey and watched a lot of hockey.

Is he the worst coach in the NHL? No, I'd put his performance middle of the road for the most part. If what you say is true, and McLellan was telling them to PK exactly as they are now (which I doubt honestly) and they were not doing it, then that is also a coaching problem. If a coach cannot get through to his players and teach them, or instill that confidence, he's not doing his job very well. Even if all it took was Robinson walking in and saying "yes do it this way" and they had enough respect for him to take him on his word and do it, that means they don't respect McLellan that much, and that's a problem.

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04-05-2013, 06:08 PM
  #145
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Sharks are 53.3% since then. You just got Fenwick'd.
You got the wrong inflection from my post. I said "Fenwick that!" not "Fenwick THAT!"

So, thank you

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04-05-2013, 06:09 PM
  #146
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As much as I relish the two wins against LA to end last season, the Sharks were flat lucky to win them. It was only because LA became content sitting on leads that we were able to come back. Had it been the play-offs where the Kings were a 60 minute team, they would have bounced us in 5 games.

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04-05-2013, 06:09 PM
  #147
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the fact that luck is such a determining factor in hockey, just makes stats just that much more useless then anything. it also makes it that much more useless for the eye ball test to.
I'm sorry, so your argument is that because luck exists, stats are useless. Wow.

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You got the wrong inflection from my post. I said "Fenwick that!" not "Fenwick THAT!"

So, thank you
Wait, what?

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04-05-2013, 06:16 PM
  #148
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Guys, this is about the playoffs and our chances of getting in, not TMac (OP is simple enough). We do have a "Fire McLellan" thread up for those that want to spend the pages on it.

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1377961

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04-05-2013, 06:23 PM
  #149
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Todd McLellan came out and said he wanted the sharks to cycle and grind and not get into a track-meet. Now he's got them track-meeting every night. The only explanation for that is he thought Murray, Handzus and Clowe were SO bad that they would lose even more badly if they played the system they are playing now with those guys. I think that a) losing is losing, and they were losing badly and b) he didn't HAVE to ice those players, and c) even if he did for some reason (Wilson told him to) then why keep doing it for two months when it clearly was not working?
I don't see them playing a much different style. I see the breakouts working better leading to better entries. They are also shooting more on the entry, which Tmac has been trying to get them to do for a while. At least publicly stating so. They still cycle and grind as much as possible when the entry leads to that. I'm pretty sure he could do with out the tack meets.

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I get what you are saying, you have general faith in the guy because its his specialty. I've just worked with too many supposed 'experts' on things who didn't have a godamn clue what they were doing to take that for granted. Amazingly enough some people can spend all their time doing something, and still do it badly. In McLellan's case, like I said, I don't think he's stupid, but sometimes when you are on the inside of something it's impossible to get perspective. He had a couple of assistants who clearly were not cut out for it and were likely 'yes' men and he wasn't seeing what needed to happen. It happens, I've done it myself, one of the biggest lessons i've learned in my career is to always get a second set of eyes on complicated stuff. I don't think that was happening.

It's like trying to solve your own relationship problems. Sometimes you simply cannot see the problem and you need a friend to step in and tell you what's going on. You may know far more about your own relationship, but an outside perspective can simply see things you do not. Would I make a good head coach? hell no, I don't have the patience or the experience, but I also don't have a biased perspective and I am a reasonably intelligent guy who has played a lot of hockey and watched a lot of hockey.
I get what your saying, but I don't think it was that big of a problem. They needed some input and they got it with Robinson, so they saw that as an issue at least.

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Is he the worst coach in the NHL? No, I'd put his performance middle of the road for the most part. If what you say is true, and McLellan was telling them to PK exactly as they are now (which I doubt honestly) and they were not doing it, then that is also a coaching problem. If a coach cannot get through to his players and teach them, or instill that confidence, he's not doing his job very well. Even if all it took was Robinson walking in and saying "yes do it this way" and they had enough respect for him to take him on his word and do it, that means they don't respect McLellan that much, and that's a problem.
I hope your not calling me a liar. And if you doubt what Robinson said then I don't know what to tell you. I was the one who asked the question FTR.

I am sure they honed in on improving the PK regardless, but they also had time to heal the psyche from the disaster it was last year, added a couple players and had time to start from scratch and practice it again. The fact that it started working this time relatively quickly didn't hurt either.

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04-05-2013, 06:26 PM
  #150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slocal View Post
Guys, this is about the playoffs and our chances of getting in, not TMac (OP is simple enough). We do have a "Fire McLellan" thread up for those that want to spend the pages on it.

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1377961
Sorry, I'll stop. I didn't see your post until my last one. You can move it if you want.

Led Zappa is online now  
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