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Old
03-29-2013, 10:22 AM
  #301
1972
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Look for Columbus to fall right back to the bottom, the toughest remaining schedule imo

6 of last 7 are on road with Colorado being the only non playoff team.

Looking at Buffalo remaining schedule, I predict they win 7 of 15, say they go 7-5-3/8-5-2 that would give them around 48 points in 48 games. A PP% .500 has a team finishing 22-23-24th in the league the last 5 or so years. Would be looking at a pick around 8th overall.

Looking at Buffalo remaining schedule, assuming they only go something like 5-8-2 which would give them 43 points P% 439. That would give them a pick around 2nd or 3rd looking at history from the past 5 years.

While the difference between a record of 7-5-3 and 5-8-2 may not seem like a huge difference over 15 games it could result in a drop of 5-8 spots in the draft. So while every win may feel satisfying to some, it will really come back to bite us.

EDIT: we only have 14 games left, same logic applies


Last edited by 1972: 03-29-2013 at 10:37 AM.
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Old
03-29-2013, 10:49 AM
  #302
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
It'll be a real kicker if/when the Flyers finish lower than Buffalo. Normally, that would be cause for celebration, but not if they're in direct competition for draft position.
The only positive I could see is that Philly isn't in "rebuild/fire sale mode" like we are/should be.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Karate Johnson View Post
Our fire sale in the next 5 days will solidify the tank.


Put Vanek on IR I you can't trade him. Why should he play hurt?

Florida and others might be true sellers as well so they will not have the same roster the last 11 games or so either.

But if we truly sell and Vanek is out on top of that we should really finish these 14 games up playing under .400 hockey..

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Old
03-30-2013, 02:32 PM
  #303
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Philly won

Now tied with Buffalo with 31 points. for 13th/14th in the East.

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03-30-2013, 02:54 PM
  #304
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Most excellent. Philadelphia beats Boston.

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03-30-2013, 03:29 PM
  #305
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Philly is 1000000% due to make a run...they're too good and deep up front to be toiling in ****.

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Old
03-30-2013, 03:31 PM
  #306
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Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
Philly is 1000000% due to make a run...they're too good and deep up front to be toiling in ****.
I hope you're right, same with Washington.

Bottom 3 in the East should be us and the two Florida teams.

Now the West has some crappy teams too.

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03-30-2013, 03:39 PM
  #307
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
Philly is 1000000% due to make a run...they're too good and deep up front to be toiling in ****.
The are not that good or deep. They certainly should be a little better than they are but take another look at their overrated lineup.

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03-30-2013, 03:42 PM
  #308
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Philly's defense is in bad shape right now though, big win for them (for us)

A loss tonight is really big for the Sabres, a win could put us out of position to draft top 5.

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03-30-2013, 03:45 PM
  #309
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
The are not that good or deep. They certainly should be a little better than they are but take another look at their overrated lineup.
It's the D that is killer. The offense is deep enough - just having a bad season to date. I'd certainly prefer their situation to ours, in terms of roster and pipeline moving forward.

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03-30-2013, 03:47 PM
  #310
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Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
It's the D that is killer. The offense is deep enough - just having a bad season to date. I'd certainly prefer their situation to ours, in terms of roster and pipeline moving forward.
I'm just thinking of what the roster should have on it and the stupid moves Holmgren made to gut a Cup contender.

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03-30-2013, 04:25 PM
  #311
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The tank is growing stronger. Carolina is about to pull out the W over Winnipeg, and Colorado/Nashville both look like they're earning loser points with 3 minutes left in their tie game game.

edit: and Colorado pulls it out in OT. Three games into the day so far and we've gotten the absolute perfect outcomes as far as tanking is concerned


Last edited by boots electric: 03-30-2013 at 04:46 PM.
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Old
03-30-2013, 05:23 PM
  #312
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I said the day before the season opener that Philadelphia's defensive was atrocious. They can still make a run to #8 with that team but I bet it comes down to the last day or two. What happens if the Rangers get eliminated by the shootout again?

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03-30-2013, 05:50 PM
  #313
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Originally Posted by Moskau View Post
I said the day before the season opener that Philadelphia's defensive was atrocious. They can still make a run to #8 with that team but I bet it comes down to the last day or two. What happens if the Rangers get eliminated by the shootout again?
I'd laugh... I remember being at the Devils/Sabres game in Newark that year, which was played at the same time as Flyers/Rangers. I watched the shootout over the shoulder of someone in a box suite, and naturally, Devils fans were cheering the Rangers' misfortune.


Gotta love hockey

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Old
03-30-2013, 09:00 PM
  #314
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Florida ties it up!

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03-30-2013, 09:02 PM
  #315
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Philly beat the Bruins 3-1. Panthers tie it late. Scoreboard watching...

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Old
03-30-2013, 09:04 PM
  #316
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
Philly is 1000000% due to make a run...they're too good and deep up front to be toiling in ****.
They're running out a lot of AHL-level defensemen. They could've used Leo.

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03-30-2013, 09:06 PM
  #317
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Panthers win.

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Old
03-30-2013, 09:08 PM
  #318
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Tank Nation applauds the Panthers' efforts tonight. Watch them deal Campbell to the Flyers...

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Old
03-31-2013, 12:17 AM
  #319
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Updated Outlook


Current Week

As of right now, we sit at 32 points with 9 Regulation/OT wins in 35 games. 8th Place NYR has/will have 35 points with 13 Regulation/OT wins in 34 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 3.3% chance of making the playoffs. Accuscore has us at a 4.8% chance of making it. This week's games are the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next games are:


3/26: @Tampa Bay - Result = L
3/28: @Florida - Result = OTL
3/30: Washington - Result = OTL
3/31: Boston
4/02: @Pittsburgh
----Trade Deadline----
4/05: Ottawa
4/07: New Jersey


---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation
  • 9 Home Games
  • 4 Away Games
  • 8 Games are against the current top 5 teams in the Conference (Pitt, MTL, Winnipeg, Boston, Ottawa)

Rolston Record

Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 18 games and have gone 7-5-6, and 4-3-3 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 13 games and the Sabres were to go 5-4-4, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 46 points and most likely finish 13th in the Conference (41% Chance, or a 55% chance to finish 13th or worse), which would probably be a pick in the 4~6 range for 13th place in the Conference

Accuscore

Accuscore has us going 6-6-1 in our final 13 and (still) has us projected to finish 19-22-7 for a total of 45 points.

Sabres Season

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .400 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .600. So of the remaining 9 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 4-4-1.
Their away win percentage is .350 and a point percentage of .500. Of the remaining 4 away games, the trend would show a record of 1-2-1.
That would equal out to a record of 5-6-2, or 44 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 42% chance of finishing 13th in Conference, and a 46% chance of finishing 14th.

The record predictions from Accuscore, Rolston's coaching, and the Sabres entire season are nearly identical. All three show a prediction within 1~2 points of each other.

-----------

***Of Note, Ruff went 6-11 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .035 (from .353 to .388), or roughly only 1 game better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 105%, from .353 to .722 under Rolston.***


What the above shows is that while Ruff and Rolston have a nearly identical winning percentage, the difference is that almost half of Rolston's losses have come in OT or SO. Ruff gained 12 of a possible 34 points, or .353%, whereas Rolston has gained 20 of a possible 36 points, or .556%.

Fun "What If Math"
  • Had Ruff continued coaching and stayed with his pace, the Sabres would have 24~25 points,
    thus being in last place in the NHL.

  • Had Rolston coached from the start and stayed with his pace, the Sabres would have about 40 points,
    that would have them in playoff position, 7th in the East.
------------------

Tank
If we were to play at around .400 pace, say 5-7-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 65% chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 10, preferably 11 of their final 14 games. 52 points would mean a 67% chance, 53 a 86.8% chance, and 54 a 96.1% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  • Winning 11 of the 13 games which is about .850 hockey
  • Getting about 4 out of every 5 points available
  • Losing ONLY 3 or less games
Irrelevancy (9th/12th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is about a 60% to 93% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .600 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 7~9 wins in our final 13.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 38.5% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

------------------

Current Predicted Standings

Right now, the predicted final standings and draft order (barring lottery results) would be:
  1. Florida
  2. Colorado
  3. Calgary
  4. Buffalo
  5. Philadelphia
  6. Columbus
Meaning the Sabres would have a 10.7% shot at winning the lottery


--------------------

My Prediction

It's a rough road ahead, especially our next 6 games. I think we finish the final 13 games 4-6-3, so 97% chance at a bottom 3 Conference finish, and thus a good shot at a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

The difference between 42, 44 ,and 46 points is the difference between 80%, 47%, and 12% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 99%, 90%, and 50% shot at a top 5 pick.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points: 67% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points: *No playoffs, picking between 4-13
Sabres at 52 or greater points: Playoffs


Last edited by sjci: 03-31-2013 at 12:52 AM.
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Old
03-31-2013, 12:20 AM
  #320
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Niemi shuts out Phoenix in the shootout, but the Coyotes pick up a point. I'll take it.

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Old
03-31-2013, 01:05 AM
  #321
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
.
These posts are really interesting and awesome, as someone who is constantly watching the standings and the games of most bottom-feeders, I appreciate the time/effort you put into them.



Would've been nice if the Sabres didn't pick up the loser point tonight - every other team currently in the bottom ten that played today either won or picked up a point: Florida W, Colorado W, Buffalo SOL, Washington W, Phoenix SOL, Carolina W, Philadelphia W.

Also FWIW, Buffalo (BOS), Philadelphia, Washington and Columbus (ANA) are bottom 10 the teams that play Sunday. Philly/Wash actually play against each other, so that helps out a bit.


Last edited by Sean McG: 03-31-2013 at 07:13 AM.
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Old
03-31-2013, 08:49 AM
  #322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean McG View Post
These posts are really interesting and awesome, as someone who is constantly watching the standings and the games of most bottom-feeders, I appreciate the time/effort you put into them.



Would've been nice if the Sabres didn't pick up the loser point tonight - every other team currently in the bottom ten that played today either won or picked up a point: Florida W, Colorado W, Buffalo SOL, Washington W, Phoenix SOL, Carolina W, Philadelphia W.

Also FWIW, Buffalo (BOS), Philadelphia, Washington and Columbus (ANA) are bottom 10 the teams that play Sunday. Philly/Wash actually play against each other, so that helps out a bit.
Thanks! I enjoy doing this and seeing how our chances line up with everything. And like you said, today's another big day for "tanking" teams. Hopefully Philly/Wash goes into OT

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Old
03-31-2013, 08:51 AM
  #323
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We have the 6th pick right now. Hopefully we get in the bottom 3 and stay there. Even if a team with more points wins the lottery we are guaranteed a top 4 pick and one of Mackinnon, Drouin, Jones or Barkov. I'd be ecstatic with any of the 4. I have actually been salivating at a future line of Foligno-Barkov-Girgensons

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Old
03-31-2013, 09:10 AM
  #324
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Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
We have the 6th pick right now. Hopefully we get in the bottom 3 and stay there. Even if a team with more points wins the lottery we are guaranteed a top 4 pick and one of Mackinnon, Drouin, Jones or Barkov. I'd be ecstatic with any of the 4. I have actually been salivating at a future line of Foligno-Barkov-Girgensons
If Buffalo misses out on the top three, I'd like them to draft Lindholm.

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Old
03-31-2013, 09:17 AM
  #325
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If Buffalo misses out on the top three, I'd like them to draft Lindholm.
No Nichushkin?

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