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04-05-2013, 09:55 PM
  #451
sjci
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Updated Outlook


As of 4/05/2013 at 10:00 PM

As of right now, we sit at 36 points with 11 Regulation/OT wins in 38 games. 8th Place NYI has/will have 40 points with 15 Regulation/OT wins in 38 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 5.5% chance of making the playoffs. Accuscore has us at a TBD% chance of making it. This week's games are the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next games are:


4/05: Ottawa - Result = W
4/07: New Jersey
4/09: @Winnipeg
4/11: Montreal
4/13: Philadelphia
4/14: Tampa


~Will remove this section once eliminated from playoff contention. And add in a draft special~

---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation
  • 7 Home Games
  • 3 Away Games
  • 3 Games are against the current top 5 teams in the Conference (Pitt, MTL, Boston)

Rolston Record

Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 21 games and have gone 9-6-6, and 5-3-2 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 10 games and the Sabres were to go 4-3-3, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 47 points and most likely finish 12th in the Conference (39% Chance, or a 39% chance to finish 13th or worse), which would probably be a pick in the 6~9 range for 12th place in the Conference

Accuscore

Will update when released.

Sabres Season

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .412 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .588. So of the remaining 7 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 3-3-1.
Their away win percentage is .381 and a point percentage of .524. Of the remaining 3 away games, the trend would show a record of 1-1-1.
That would equal out to a record of 4-4-2, or 46 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 46% chance of finishing 13th in Conference, and a 21% chance of finishing 14th.

The record predictions from Accuscore, Rolston's coaching, and the Sabres entire season are nearly identical. All three show a prediction within 1 point of each other.

-----------

***Of Note, Ruff went 6-11 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .076 (from .353 to .429), or roughly the same, possibly 1 game better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 103%, from .353 to .714 under Rolston.***


What the above shows is that while Ruff and Rolston have a nearly identical winning percentage, the difference is that almost half of Rolston's losses have come in OT or SO. Ruff gained 12 of a possible 34 points, or .353%, whereas Rolston has gained 24 of a possible 42 points, or .571%.

Fun "What If Math"
  • Had Ruff continued coaching and stayed with his pace, the Sabres would have 27 points,
    thus being in last place in the NHL.

  • Had Rolston coached from the start and stayed with his pace, the Sabres would have about 43 points,
    that would have them in playoff position, 7th in the East.
------------------

Tank
If we were to play at around .300 pace, say 3-6-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 80% chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 8, preferably 9 of their final 10 games. 52 points would mean a 62.4% chance, 53 a 82.9% chance, and 54 a 95.1% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  • Winning 9 of the 10 games which is .900 hockey
  • Getting about 16 out of 20 points available
  • Losing ONLY 2 or less games
Irrelevancy (9th/12th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is about a 67% to 99% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .600 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 5~7 wins in our final 10.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 33% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

------------------

Current Predicted Standings

Right now, the predicted final standings and draft order (barring lottery results) would be:
as of 4/02/2013 @ 10:30 PM EST
  1. Florida
  2. Colorado
  3. Calgary
  4. Buffalo
  5. Dallas
  6. Carolina

Meaning the Sabres would have a 10.4% shot at winning the lottery

Carolina and Dallas are in major tail spins. At this rate, it's very possible that they will pass the Sabres and we'll go from possibly the 4th pick, to the 6th or 7th.
--------------------

My Prediction

These pointless wins are going to kill us, but it's still a rough road ahead. With how they've been over performing and a majority of the games at home, I hate to say it but I think we finish the final 10 games 5-3-2, so a 69% chance of finishing 11th or 12th, so a pick between 6-10.

The difference between 42, 44 ,and 46 points is the difference between 90%, 64%, and 22% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 99%, 96%, and 63% shot at a top 5 pick.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points(3 wins or less): 82% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points(Between 4 ~ 7 wins): *No playoffs, picking between 4-13
Sabres at 52 or greater points: *Playoffs

-------------------------


Last edited by sjci: 04-05-2013 at 10:30 PM.
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Old
04-05-2013, 09:58 PM
  #452
Sean McG
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Win one for Pommer, lose ten straight for MacKinnon? At least that's what I'm hoping for...

Looking more and more like the Sabres best shot at a top 3 pick is the lottery or using the picks they've accumulated to trade up. Now sitting in 7th, but, they do have games in hand on every team below them in the standings.

Avs (down 2-1 to Detroit after 1), Flames (@ San Jose) and Stars (@ Anaheim) are the teams below Buffalo playing tonight.

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04-05-2013, 10:31 PM
  #453
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Theses pointless wins can very much come back to haunt us. The difference between 3 wins and 5 wins in our last 10 could mean the difference between the 2nd/3rd pick or the 6th/7th. So think of each win from now on till the end of the season as moving back at least 1~2 spots in the draft, or every point (overtime or shootout) as losing 1 spot.

With Dallas and Carolina in super tank mode, I'm feeling less and less confident we'll get that top 4 pick.

Calgary and Colorado are definite bottom finishers. Florida is coming on a little bit, so I wouldn't be shocked if they finished around 3/4. Dallas and Carolina though really worry me.

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04-05-2013, 10:47 PM
  #454
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The good right now:

Dallas leading Anaheim 2-1 after the first

The Ok:
St. Louis win against Columbus - Now have 42 points and in 7th
Detroit up 2-1 on Colorado after 2nd. - Win gives them 43 points
Calgary/San Jose tied at 0-0 5 minutes into the 1st

All are ok as we need St. Louis in the playoffs to have a shot of getting the Leopold 5th to become a 4th and Colorado is in full on tank and we won't be catching them so a Detroit win moves them within 1 of the Wild (44 points). If the Wild miss the playoffs, we'd have 2 top 15 picks, which would be awesome, or, hopefully the Wild would end up in 7th or 8th and have to play either Chicago or Anaheim and lose in the first round, giving us 2 top 20 picks.

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04-05-2013, 10:54 PM
  #455
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Dallas is up 3-1 over Anaheim!

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04-05-2013, 11:02 PM
  #456
tsujimoto74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean McG View Post
Win one for Pommer, lose ten straight for MacKinnon? At least that's what I'm hoping for...

Looking more and more like the Sabres best shot at a top 3 pick is the lottery or using the picks they've accumulated to trade up. Now sitting in 7th, but, they do have games in hand on every team below them in the standings.

Avs (down 2-1 to Detroit after 1), Flames (@ San Jose) and Stars (@ Anaheim) are the teams below Buffalo playing tonight.
Well, Dallas up 3-1 after 1...

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04-05-2013, 11:14 PM
  #457
sjci
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Colorado just tied it up with Detroit now, 2-2 with just under 10 to go

--------

Calgary now takes a 1-0 lead at the end of the 1st!

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04-05-2013, 11:24 PM
  #458
aceface33
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They sold off their talent, there's not much more they can do...unfortunately Rolston seems to be getting them to play a sound game.

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04-05-2013, 11:26 PM
  #459
VaporTrail
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ugh....stop winnin' already...The season's over !

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04-05-2013, 11:27 PM
  #460
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aceface33 View Post
They sold off their talent, there's not much more they can do...unfortunately Rolston seems to be getting them to play a sound game.
Fire the interim and hire an interim interim. We need a true leader capable of driving the tank.

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04-05-2013, 11:28 PM
  #461
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Originally Posted by tsujimoto74 View Post
Fire the interim and hire an interim interim. We need a true leader capable of driving the tank.
Where is Rommel when you need him?

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04-05-2013, 11:28 PM
  #462
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Colorado heading to OT, so they get at least a point.

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04-05-2013, 11:33 PM
  #463
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Ridiculous save from Giguere on Zetterberg.

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04-05-2013, 11:36 PM
  #464
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Meh, Wings win.

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04-05-2013, 11:44 PM
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It sucks that they won tonight because so far, everyone else (Calgary, Colorado, Dallas) either picked up/or look like they're going to at pick up least a point or 2.

Now New Jersey comes to town and they're riding a 5 game losing streak (0-2-3). Then Winnipeg who's been a disaster lately, and then Philly who's a crap shoot now. We're winning games we're should have no business and it's giving the team momentum it doesn't need right now.

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04-05-2013, 11:57 PM
  #466
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In tomorrow's games, we gotta hope for Carolina to turn things around a pull out a win. Hopefully the Rangers are a little gassed from their game against Pitt today and put up a stinker.

With these match-ups tomorrow, hopefully a majority of them can be OT/SO games. Of the 10 games tomorrow, at least 8 of them could have a serious impact on the Sabres.

Canes/Rangers
Florida/Wash
Winnipeg/Philly
Isles/Tampa
NJ/Leafs
Vancouver/Calgary
Phoenix/Colorado
Nashville/Chicago

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04-06-2013, 12:20 AM
  #467
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
In tomorrow's games, we gotta hope for Carolina to turn things around a pull out a win. Hopefully the Rangers are a little gassed from their game against Pitt today and put up a stinker.

With these match-ups tomorrow, hopefully a majority of them can be OT/SO games. Of the 10 games tomorrow, at least 8 of them could have a serious impact on the Sabres.

Canes/Rangers
Florida/Wash
Winnipeg/Philly
Isles/Tampa
NJ/Leafs
Vancouver/Calgary
Phoenix/Colorado
Nashville/Chicago
Flying down to Fort Lauderdale tomorrow and my uncle has seasons (Even though hes a die hard Sabres fan, just loves hockey) so I will be attending the Florida/Wash game. Hoping it goes to OT and Florida wins!

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04-06-2013, 12:21 AM
  #468
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Sabres are going to finish in 9th place people. It's better to just accept it now, rather than be upset later.

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04-06-2013, 12:24 AM
  #469
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4-1 Dallas. Nevermind, waved it off. Still 3-1.

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04-06-2013, 12:34 AM
  #470
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I saw Rolston at Chipotle on Thursday. Should have made sure he understood what was going on here...

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04-06-2013, 01:09 AM
  #471
sjci
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Watching the Calgary game tied 1-1, with 3 minutes left thinking it will at least go to OT. Then all of a sudden, goal scramble and Sharks get a late minute goal



ughhhh Calgary



Welp, looks like the Colorado and Calgary Tank is rolling along

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04-06-2013, 01:40 AM
  #472
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Quote:
Originally Posted by camcool21 View Post
Sabres are going to finish in 9th place people. It's better to just accept it now, rather than be upset later.
Want to put your money where your mouth is? 100 vcash says the Sabres will end up in any other spot BUT 9th in the east.

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04-06-2013, 01:47 AM
  #473
McTankel
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Has been top 6 pick or bust for me all year. Any one of Mack, Drouin, Jones, Lind, Barkov, Monahan PLEASE! We could literally use everyone of these guys. Lindholm/Larsson Swedish combo. Barkov/Armia Finnish Combo those guys would be pretty epic to have on our team. I need a top 6 pick!

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04-06-2013, 06:59 AM
  #474
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Awwufelloff View Post
Has been top 6 pick or bust for me all year. Any one of Mack, Drouin, Jones, Lind, Barkov, Monahan PLEASE! We could literally use everyone of these guys. Lindholm/Larsson Swedish combo. Barkov/Armia Finnish Combo those guys would be pretty epic to have on our team. I need a top 6 pick!
Agreed. Outside the top three, I'm partial to Lindholm. I like his game.

Regier acquired some significant trade assets in picks. He'll likely get more if he trades Miller/Vanek/Stafford before or at the draft. He seemed dead set on acquiring picks. Picks started the Pominville trade. Supposedly, Regier asked for a pick from Winnipeg, which stopped a Burmistrov-Stafford deal.

Is he going to draft that many players? Or is he positioning to try to trade up? I think he's making a play to get into the top three regardless. Not to say the other team would make that trade, but I think Regier has set himself up to work the draft a couple different ways.

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04-06-2013, 08:47 AM
  #475
1972
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Lets just accept that COL, FLA and COL finish below us. Their are about 5 teams that will be 4-8 and we should be one of them.

I think you will still get Monahan at #8. Someone will take Nurse or Ristalainen in the top 8 (possibly us)

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