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Old
04-11-2013, 06:55 AM
  #626
TehDoak
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So wait, I have to root for the Hurricanes and Flyers now as them winning hurts their franchise long term?

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Old
04-11-2013, 07:57 AM
  #627
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Sigh. My guess is that we'll end up with the 7th pick.

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04-11-2013, 07:58 AM
  #628
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Current Predicted Standings

Right now, the predicted final standings and draft order (barring lottery results) would be:

As of 4/11/2013 @ 7:30 AM EST
  1. Colorado (29.0)
  2. Florida (28.7)
  3. Calgary (28.2)
  4. Carolina (26.4)
  5. Nashville (24.2)
  6. Buffalo (23.7)
  7. Philadelphia (22.9)
  8. Tampa (22.2)
  9. Edmonton (21.8)
  10. New Jersey (21.3)
  11. Columbus (20.4)
  12. Dallas (18.7)
  13. Phoenix (18.0)
  14. Winnipeg (17.0)

(The number in brackets is the average finish after running a lot of simulations)

Meaning the Sabres would have a 6.2% shot at winning the lottery

I feel the top 4 teams are set. There's a small chance Carolina may pull off a couple wins, but they look like a lock for a top 5 pick. Right now the difference between 5th and 8th is only 2.0, and 5th to 10th is 2.9, so what that means is that it is still highly volatile between those picks

Tonight's Games
  1. Florida vs Winnipeg: This game has a lot of weird impacts on the lottery, but no major impact for the Sabres

  2. Washington vs Carolina: Carolina win could help Buffalo in that Tampa's average seed would drop, but doesn't directly change the Sabres rank

  3. Philadelphia vs Ottawa: No direct impact on the Sabres, but a Philly loss would have them jump the Sabres.

  4. Boston vs NY Islanders: Again, no direct impact on the Sabres, or really on the lottery for that matter

  5. Detroit vs San Jose: No impact on the lottery

  6. Tampa Bay vs Pittsburgh: Tampa win is a small help (.1) to the Sabres, but a loss would close the average gap between Buffalo and Tampa to .2

  7. Buffalo vs Montreal: BIG impact (around 1.0) on the Sabres average. A loss moves it to 24.6 (5th) or a win moves it to 22.7 (9th)

  8. Minnesota vs St. Louis: No lottery impact, but big factor for the Wild's likely playoff seed

  9. LA Kings vs Colorado: Lottery impact on the top 3 teams, and Kings playoff seed

The Sabres impact on their average position tonight is between +1.4 and -1.5, 25.1 to 22.2 [/QUOTE]


Last edited by sjci: 04-11-2013 at 10:07 PM.
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Old
04-11-2013, 10:29 AM
  #629
Myllz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
Doesnt matter, it would be virtually impossible to make up 7 points in 8 games, if we went 0-8 they would need to get 4-4.

Calgary, Colorado and Florida are out of reach for us, with Carolina starting to fall aways behind.

We will be 5-12
NOTHING IS IMPOSSIBLE!

See? I can believe in things, too.

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Old
04-11-2013, 10:55 AM
  #630
couture23
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I don't really see Ottawa keeping this losing streak alive, but I hope I'm wrong. I think they beat Philly.

My guesses:

Florida won't beat Winnipeg.
Carolina will beat Washington.
Tampa will get the loser point in OT with Pittsburgh.

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Old
04-11-2013, 01:37 PM
  #631
Selanne00008
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Quote:
Originally Posted by couture23 View Post
I don't really see Ottawa keeping this losing streak alive, but I hope I'm wrong. I think they beat Philly.

My guesses:

Florida won't beat Winnipeg.
Carolina will beat Washington.
Tampa will get the loser point in OT with Pittsburgh.
As long as we lose. That's fine.

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Old
04-11-2013, 02:54 PM
  #632
couture23
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Originally Posted by Selanne00008 View Post
As long as we lose. That's fine.
Good point

However, I hope we lose 7-6 or some **** - pad dem stats.

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Old
04-11-2013, 09:13 PM
  #633
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The black diesel smoke is bellowing and the tank is rolling again.

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Old
04-11-2013, 09:19 PM
  #634
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Originally Posted by Zippster View Post
The black diesel smoke is bellowing and the tank is rolling again.
Too bad all other tankers lost, too.

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Old
04-11-2013, 09:21 PM
  #635
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Originally Posted by Zippster View Post
The black diesel smoke is bellowing and the tank is rolling again.
Alas, everyone else also had black smoke tonight. I could use for some white smoke.

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Old
04-11-2013, 09:29 PM
  #636
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How does Tampa still suck? How it is possible that they have all that talent and still blow. The fact that they could get a better draft pick then us is sickening.

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Old
04-11-2013, 09:44 PM
  #637
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.........


Last edited by VaporTrail: 04-11-2013 at 09:45 PM. Reason: wrong thread
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Old
04-11-2013, 09:48 PM
  #638
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Updated Outlook


As of 4/11/2013 at 10:30 PM

As of right now, we sit at 38 points with 11 Regulation/OT wins in 41 games. 8th Place NYR has 42 points with 16 Regulation/OT wins in 39 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. Accuscore has us at a TBD chance of making it. This weekends' games are the key to how we finish, and if we see any changes in Coaches in the off-season. Our next games are:


4/07: New Jersey - Result = W(SO)
4/09: @Winnipeg - Result = L
4/11: Montreal - Result = L
4/13: Philadelphia
4/14: Tampa
4/17: @Boston

~Will remove this section once eliminated from playoff contention. And add in a draft special~

The next 2 games are EXTREMELY important!! Losses this weekend would almost solidify the Sabres picking between 4-6. A win or wins would seriously hurt their chances and more likely put the pick in the 8-12 range.

---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation
  • 5 Home Games
  • 2 Away Games
  • 2 Games against the SE, 4 games against the Atlantic, 1 game against the NE

Rolston Record

Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 24 games and have gone 10-9-5, and 4-4-2 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 7 games and the Sabres were to go 3-3-1, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 45 points and most likely finish 12th in the Conference (46% Chance, or a 33% chance to finish 13th), which would probably be a pick in the 5~8 range for 12th place in the Conference

Accuscore

TBD

Sabres Season

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .421 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .579. So of the remaining 5 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 2-2-1.
Their away win percentage is .364 and a point percentage of .500. Of the remaining 2 away games, the trend would show a record of 1-1-0.
That would equal out to a record of 3-3-1, or 45 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 46% chance of finishing 12th in Conference, and a 33% chance of finishing 13th.

The record predictions from Accuscore, Rolston's coaching, and the Sabres entire season are, or nearly identical. All three show a prediction within 1~2 point(s) of each other.

-----------

[I]***Of Note, Ruff went 6-10-1 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .064 (from .353 to .417),, roughly 1~2 games better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 52%, from .412 to .625 under Rolston.***


What the above shows is that while Ruff and Rolston have a nearly identical winning percentage, the difference is that some of Rolston's losses have come in OT or SO. Ruff gained 13 of a possible 34 points, or .412%, whereas Rolston has gained 26 of a possible 48 points, or .542%.

Fun "What If Math"
  • Had Ruff continued coaching and stayed with his pace, the Sabres would have 34 points,
    thus being in tied for 4th last in the League.

  • Had Rolston coached from the start and stayed with his pace, the Sabres would have about 44 points,
    that would have them in playoff position, tied for 8th in the East.
------------------

Tank
If we were to play at around .200 pace, say 1-5-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 65% chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win all of their final 7 games. 52 points would mean about a 38% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  • Winning every game the rest of the season
  • Getting Regulation or OT wins for the almost all of the games
Irrelevancy (9th/12th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is about a 83% to 99% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .800 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 5~6 wins in our final 7.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 15% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

------------------

Current Predicted Standings

Right now, the predicted final standings and draft order (barring lottery results) would be:
as of 4/02/2013 @ 10:30 PM EST
  1. Colorado (29.1)
  2. Florida (29.0)
  3. Calgary (27.8)
  4. Carolina (26.7)
  5. Buffalo (24.4)
  6. Philadelphia (23.8)
  7. Nashville (23.8)
  8. Tampa (23.5)
  9. Edmonton (21.5)
  10. New Jersey (21.2)
  11. Columbus (20.3)
  12. Dallas (18.6)
  13. Phoenix (18.0)
  14. Detroit (16.1)


(The number in brackets is the average finish after running a lot of simulations)

Meaning the Sabres would have a 8.1% shot at winning the lottery

I feel the top 4 teams are set. There's a small chance Carolina may pull off a couple wins, but they look like a lock for a top 5 pick. Right now, 4-6 teams are fighting for the spots between 5-10.
--------------------

My Prediction

Well, we went from almost certainty of at least a top 5 pick, to now most likely picking between 5~10. With how they've been performing and a majority of the games at home, I think we finish the final 7 games 2-4-1, so a 83% chance of finishing 13th or 14th, so a pick between 4-7.

The difference between 43, 45 ,and 47 points is the difference between 27%, 3%, and 0% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 85%, 40%, and 5% shot at a top 5 pick.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points(2 wins or less): 30% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points(Between 3 ~ 6 wins): *No playoffs, picking between 4-14
Sabres at 52 points: 40% chance of playoffs

-------------------------

A couple things have changed in the data.
  • 52 points is only a slightly better than 40% chance of making the playoffs. So even if the Sabres go on an improbable run, winning every game, they'd still only have less than a coin flip chance of making it in.

  • A top 3 pick is a virtual lock to not happen now. The Sabres would need to win only 1, maybe 2 games at most the rest of the year. With after tonight's game, that could happen, but I still see it as unlikely.

  • With losing out on a top 3 pick and the other bottom teams losing, the Sabres have also increased their odds of finishing between 8th and 12th. At best, we're looking at a pick around 4/5 now. At worst, we'll be stuck around pick 12.

  • As mentioned before, each win now lowers the Sabre potential draft pick by 1 to 2 spots, and each loss improves the position by 1-2 spots. Right now, we are picking 7th, but the projections but us at 5th.
    • If we finish about .600 (4-2-1) (47 points), we're most likely picking 9~11
    • If we finish about .500 (3-3-1) (45 points), we're most likely picking 6~8.
    • If we finish about .400 (2-4-1) (43 points), we're most likely picking 4~6
    • If we finish about .250 (1-5-1) (41 points), we're most likely picking 3~5


Last edited by sjci: 04-11-2013 at 11:16 PM.
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Old
04-11-2013, 09:53 PM
  #639
5 Minute Major
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It really comes down to this weekend. Efforts like tonight against Phily and Tampa and we will be right where we need to be.

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Old
04-11-2013, 10:09 PM
  #640
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Originally Posted by 5 Minute Major View Post
It really comes down to this weekend. Efforts like tonight against Phily and Tampa and we will be right where we need to be.
If we find a way to lose those two, we'll be in good shape, I think. After that, we play:

Bruins
Rangers
Penguins
Jets
Islanders

We won't beat the Bruins or the Penguins (or will we ), and the other teams on that list will all be fighting for playoff positions. Not to get ahead of ourselves, but I could see us losing almost all of those games. Let's just hope their little closed door postgame meeting doesn't spark some meaningless win streak.

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Old
04-11-2013, 10:49 PM
  #641
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Huge tank implications the next two games, knowing the Sabres they'll troll us and win both in regulation.

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Old
04-11-2013, 10:51 PM
  #642
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This thing isn't over yet.

I think it is going to be tough to get a top 3 pick, if not impossible.

But I think we can get pick 4 or 5 for sure.

Playing Enroth will help a bunch, if this organization is smart enough to go that route.

No point in beating Miller to death now as per the norm, and he has already seen more rubber than a dead skunk on the Trans-Canada Highway.

Give him some rest. Lots.

And we MUST lose this pair of weekend games.

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04-11-2013, 10:59 PM
  #643
Jame
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Royisgone View Post
This thing isn't over yet.

I think it is going to be tough to get a top 3 pick, if not impossible.

But I think we can get pick 4 or 5 for sure.

Playing Enroth will help a bunch, if this organization is smart enough to go that route.

No point in beating Miller to death now as per the norm, and he has already seen more rubber than a dead skunk on the Trans-Canada Highway.

Give him some rest. Lots.

And we MUST lose this pair of weekend games.
Not sure why you think playing enroth would be better for the tank... Enroth has something to play for.... Miller does not

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Old
04-11-2013, 11:11 PM
  #644
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Not sure why you think playing enroth would be better for the tank... Enroth has something to play for.... Miller does not
Because Miller is a vastly superior goalie. Even an unmotivated Miller is much better than a motivated Enroth over a span of games. We still have 7 to play.

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Old
04-12-2013, 04:04 AM
  #645
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Carolina and Nashville have a brutal schedule. Nashville's schedule is similar to ours but they wouldn't be the Buffalo Sabres without pulling wins out of their ass.

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Old
04-12-2013, 07:39 AM
  #646
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I really think Buffalo might lose out now. Last night was a case of the last bit of air being let out of the Zeppelin after that Winnipeg game. They that was their last legit shot at a playoff run, so the focus was not there at all against Montreal. I know some players still have something to play for, but without a full team effort (mentally as well) the results will be ugly. They have a string of playoff teams coming up anyway, so a 4 or 5 pick is quite possible.

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Old
04-12-2013, 07:45 AM
  #647
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Ok. If we don't win the lottery, we're rooting for someone ahead of us to. That way we won't lose draft position, i.e., from the 5th to 6th.

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Old
04-12-2013, 07:53 AM
  #648
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sabresfan129103 View Post
How does Tampa still suck? How it is possible that they have all that talent and still blow. The fact that they could get a better draft pick then us is sickening.
warm weather team with a country club mentality.

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Old
04-12-2013, 08:51 AM
  #649
MayDay
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warm weather team with a country club mentality.
Don't buy that geography and climate has anything to so with it.

You could ask the same question about the Oilers. How are they still so bad with all the young talent they have accumulated? Obviously the climate and lifestyle of a small northern Canadian team doesn't have anything to do with it.

On the other hand, look at the Kings winning the Cup by being one of the hardest-working teams in hockey. Being in sunny SoCal and adjacent to Hollywood did not make them play soft and lazy.

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04-12-2013, 08:59 AM
  #650
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Huuuuuuge weekend. Must-lose.

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