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Turris vs Stepan

View Poll Results: Stepan vs Turris..Who better NOW?
Stepan 66 54.10%
Turris 56 45.90%
Voters: 122. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-26-2013, 08:16 PM
  #51
The Latvian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anth93 View Post
One number isn't the end all be all. I agree with you for the most part, but these opinions are made with all of what you just said in mind. That's why I used a chart which best displays where that player ranks vs the rest of his team. Clearly Chris Niel and Zach Smith have a tougher role, in which "The Latvian" tried to say was what Turris did. He was wrong and the numbers support that.

http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage...Update+Results
Derek Stepan looks to play a much different role for the Rangers and is doing so much more effectively. Whether you want to say he's playing the "shutdown" role is up to you, but I would say he's playing tough lines while also producing shots and his points suggest he's right on par with Turris.
Never once said Turris has a tougher role than them. Never said he played the toughest role. Said he played against top lines and he does. Turris plays against top lines just as Smith and Neil do. Just because he isnt at the top of the adavanced stats (which you live by) doesnt change that. Ottawa doesn't have a shutdown line and lines change often depending on who is on the line up but it is usually the Smith line and the Turris line matching up against top lines.

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Old
03-26-2013, 08:29 PM
  #52
Benny FTW
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Stepan looking really good tonight.

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Old
03-26-2013, 08:47 PM
  #53
Anth93
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Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
Ok, so Neil, for example, you say has a tougher role. I've already shown why I don't put much stock in QOC calculations, but he does get a lower OZ start. Lets put that in context though. Niel has had a total of 137 Def zone Starts. Turris has had 139. Smith has had 149. That over 33 games, seems pretty even to me, the 10 extra D zone starts Smith has equates to less than 1 every 3 games. Stepan has the least Defensive zone starts at 120. Still not a huge margin, but bigger than the difference between the 3 sens in question.

Now for the difference in Corsi; Stepan leads the pack at 7.86. Corsi is expressed in per 60 mins, so given Stepan plays 16 a game, that means he nets a positive 2 shots differential a game. Not earth shattering. Turris at 2.22 comes out at a little over a half a shot positive per game in his 15:30 of ES toi. All in all, there is nothing really to write home about.

If there was more separation in any of the stats, I could see a case, but there really isn't much of a difference when you actually look at what the numbers are expressing.

Ref: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...8+59+60+61+62#

Beyond that, you could look at the line mates, Stepan's most common are Haggelin, Callahan, and Nash. Turris gets Alfredsson, Silfverberg and Greening. Personally I'd give Stepan the edge in quality of line mates as Haggelin and Callahan vs Alfredsson and Silfverberg are close, and Greening and Nash only played limited time with there respective team mates (about 120 mins each or about 7-8 games on a line together)
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Latvian View Post
Never once said Turris has a tougher role than them. Never said he played the toughest role. Said he played against top lines and he does. Turris plays against top lines just as Smith and Neil do. Just because he isnt at the top of the adavanced stats (which you live by) doesnt change that. Ottawa doesn't have a shutdown line and lines change often depending on who is on the line up but it is usually the Smith line and the Turris line matching up against top lines.
I'll let you guys use advanced stats at your own risk. Continue to ignore them all you'd like, but the reality is that none of my arguments say Turris is a bad player. They simply say he isn't the player you describe him as. Why twist it?

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Old
03-26-2013, 08:54 PM
  #54
Eskimo44
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Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
Turris and Alfredsson played together a lot for the first half of the season, but sometime in the middle of Turris's slump they were split. Since then, Smith centers Alfredsson and Latendress, and Turris centers Greening and Silfverberg.
Here is the link for line combo's over the last 10 games.
http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-com...&gametype=10#A

They still play together on occasion (double shifting and such) but they are no longer tied at the hip by any means.
So they played together for the majority of Turris' most productive period? Got it. I never said they were playing together at all times, most if not all teams blend up their lines quite often, but clearly they are often utilized together. In fact so much so it should be an obvious consideration when talking about Turris' performance.

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Old
03-26-2013, 09:50 PM
  #55
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4 point night for Stepan

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Old
03-27-2013, 06:36 AM
  #56
Micklebot
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anth93 View Post
I'll let you guys use advanced stats at your own risk. Continue to ignore them all you'd like, but the reality is that none of my arguments say Turris is a bad player. They simply say he isn't the player you describe him as. Why twist it?
I'm not twisting it, just illustrating that advanced statistics are far from perfect. When you see large differences, you can make the conclusion that you've placed on Smith Neil and Turris, but the difference is not substantial, and with the flaws in QOC, OZ start % and Corsi, false conclusions can easily be made.

If you look at +/- QOC, Stepan and Turris are virtually identical; so which one is right? Stepan has had just shy of 40 additional OZ starts. Does that account for at least a part of their small difference in Corsi?

Overall, my point is that you need to scrutinize advance statistics, just like you would scrutinize +/- before taking it as the bible. Pretty player usage charts are nice and all, but leave out a lot of information. The fact is, both Turris and Smith face off against the top 2 lines of opponents teams. Smith got the Tavares assignment against NYI, while Turris got the Stamkos assignment against TBL.

Anyhow, if you want to pretend that Turris isn't matched up against opponents best because you found a chart that says the average corsi of his opponents is slightly less than Smith's, have fun doing it, just don't be surprised when people who watch the games tend to have differing opinions.


Last edited by Micklebot: 03-27-2013 at 06:54 AM.
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Old
03-27-2013, 07:12 AM
  #57
Cujomi
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In reference to the above I've always thought that Smith usually gets the toughest assignments, but Turris still gets some of them.

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Old
03-27-2013, 07:55 AM
  #58
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Close but Turris.

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03-27-2013, 09:41 AM
  #59
Micklebot
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
So they played together for the majority of Turris' most productive period? Got it. I never said they were playing together at all times, most if not all teams blend up their lines quite often, but clearly they are often utilized together. In fact so much so it should be an obvious consideration when talking about Turris' performance.
Yes, they also played together for most of the teams and Turris's least productive offensive period. Once split, both the team and Turris got back on track. They've actually been re-united in the last few ga,es as well. TBH, I'm not sure why I sensing hostility in your post, I was just trying to give some additional information as to how they had been utilized.

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Old
03-27-2013, 09:44 AM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Cujomi View Post
In reference to the above I've always thought that Smith usually gets the toughest assignments, but Turris still gets some of them.
I'd say the biggest difference is that Turris also is used in an offensive role unlike Smith. He'll occasionally be put out to take advantage of a mismatch.

  Smith Turris
STAMKOS, STEVEN 10.31 16.75
CROSBY, SIDNEY 8.7612.18
KADRI, NAZEM 13.14 12.54
BOZAK, TYLER 16.69 16.84
PLEKANEC, TOMAS 13.58 16.98
TAVARES, JOHN23.638.82

Added a table, here is how much time each has spent against some of the East's top line centers. A couple jump out, Turris spent more time against Stamkos and Crosby, but Smith spent significantly more time up against Tavares (probably because Sens coaching thought Turris's offence could be used to expose a NYI that is weak on depth). Couldn't decide who to include for TO, so I took both, but it was inconsequential as they were pretty even either way.

Either way, I think it is safe to conclude both are used to shut down the oppositions top lines on a nightly basis.

The difference with Turris and Stepan is that NYR don't really have 2 guys they put out in a shut down role like in ottawa. Stepan seems to pretty much draw all the time against the top pts producers on the other team.


Last edited by Micklebot: 03-27-2013 at 01:08 PM.
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Old
03-30-2013, 12:41 PM
  #61
Kusic
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Close, but Turris.

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Old
03-30-2013, 01:12 PM
  #62
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It's close at the moment. Turris' development was stunted a bit and Stepan's certainly got some better linemates. But who do i take? Probably Turris. But more for down the road. He's a bit faster and more dynamic. Question is if he pans out to be top-notch, while Stepan is guaranteed to be a 2nd line talent, at least. Risk vs. reward.

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Old
03-30-2013, 01:17 PM
  #63
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I like turris's game.. i think he has more of an edge to his game which i Like, but I dont think Turris has the Hockey IQ Stepan has, which id give it to him, but its def close.. Stepan has been our most consistent fw night in and night out.. Plays PP and PK, scores big goals and comes up huge for the rangers.. Def close call but Step based on body of work..If he hasnt played consistent rangers prob wouldnt even be in playoff contention right now..

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Old
03-30-2013, 03:06 PM
  #64
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Stepan >>> Turris.

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Old
03-30-2013, 06:57 PM
  #65
Eskimo44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
Yes, they also played together for most of the teams and Turris's least productive offensive period. Once split, both the team and Turris got back on track. They've actually been re-united in the last few ga,es as well. TBH, I'm not sure why I sensing hostility in your post, I was just trying to give some additional information as to how they had been utilized.
Hostility? I apologize if that's what it seems like to you but if you look at my initial point it's pretty clear what i said was right, and i think i'm entitled to point that out. I think you typically make strong arguments, but that doesn't mean i won't criticize individual comments for what they are.

Turris may be playing tough minutes but a guy like Alfredsson makes them much easier to play, and succeed while doing so. However it needs to also be said that his slump which came after Spezza got hurt, this infers that he was producing much better when facing easier competition and playing with Alfie.

Sens fans are quick to point out that he's playing tough minutes but they seem to pretend like it's been at the same time as his most productive play. They as my first post was refering to, like to act like he's playing these tough minutes and producing with poor/mediocre help. This isn't true. He's gotten the best winger on the team, has been most productive in a secondary role, and has struggled at times playing tough minutes. Turris is a great young center but he's still developing and is not the consistent two way talent he's being made out to be. People are taking the best things he's done this year, playing tough minutes and scoring, and ignoring that they largely have happened at different times.

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