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This season (potentially) is starting to look a little like last year

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Old
03-24-2013, 09:18 PM
  #1
drwpreds
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This season (potentially) is starting to look a little like last year

Looking at some stats and results this morning, and it struck me that this year is potentially starting to look "a little bit" like last season, emphasis on little bit.

I think everyone pretty much agrees that thus far, this season has been a big disappointment. Offense was horrible the first half, and the defense has struggled the second half. We have also had a ton of injuries on the offensive side- (Wilson, Hornqvist, Gaustad) and Gill has missed a bunch of time.

However, despite all of that, plus playing arguably one of the toughest schedules in the NHL so far, we are sitting at .500 and are very much in the playoff race.

Despite being without Wilson and Hornqvist, possibly our top 2 forwards, the offense has come to life. Remember when we were dead last by a mile in offense, and wondering how in the world we were #8 in goals scored last year?

Well, over the past 17 games, we are averaging 3 goals per game. That would put us in top 7 in the league. As it is, we are #25 now, and if we were to play the final 16 games the way we played the last 17, we would be close to being in the top 10 in goals again. If you look at the stats, even though we are 25th in goals now, there isn't a whole lot of difference in that and the #10 team.

My point is, this season is potentially looking a heck of a lot like last year. Last year, we were right around .500 after 27 games (12-11-4 I believe) and struggled to score early in the year- yet finished with 40+ wins, 100 points and top 10 in goals.

Because of our injuries (Wilson probably out for the rest of the year really hurts) and the fact that we only have 16 games left because of the strike, we won't have time to approach last seasons finish.

But I really believe that if this were a normal year and we had a full 50 games left, and a completely healthy team (with Wilson and Hornqvist) it is entirely possible that we could have put together another year similar to last year.

And given how awful we have been at times this year, that is pretty remarkable.

Anyone agree with this or am I nuts???

(And before I get flamed for being too positive, I am just saying its possible- it is also entirely possible that we will fall flat on our face the final 16 games.)

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03-24-2013, 09:24 PM
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I said we would battle for 7-8th and could easily miss the playoffs during the offseason (as many others did, not trying to claim Miss Cleo powers here); I think we're playing in line with expectations. I'm generally happy with the team, though I'm one of the more laid back fans. The roster may look the same on the surface, but we've had a lot of players trying to figure out their roles, and Clune / Bartley / Butler / etc. have been pleasant surprises.

I really want Wilson back though.

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03-24-2013, 09:28 PM
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NoNecksCurse
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this team is nothing like last year's team... yet at least. if we win about 5 in a row here, then we will talk. we should be able to since we're playing the weakest teams in the west. all i see happening is us beating the cellar dwellers and not being sellers at the deadline. then come april, we'll struggle playing playoff teams and miss the playoffs and finish 10th. hope im wrong. wilson may be out for the year.

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03-24-2013, 09:35 PM
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this team has suffered from an offense/defense mismatch

for the first half of the year we couldn't score diddly squat but Pekka and our defense kept us in games.

when we finally figured out how to score, Pekka and the defense were awful.

if we can keep scoring like we have the last 7 games, but play something resembling Predator defense, we will be just fine and be competitive in the playoffs

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03-24-2013, 10:11 PM
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NoNecksCurse
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i still think this team misses the playoffs. guess im one of the few.. really hate wilson's injury.. he was finally playing like a 1st line forward, too. i think if we get him some talented guys to play along side him, we may have the forward we have all wanted for a while.

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03-24-2013, 10:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
this team is nothing like last year's team... yet at least
You say that, but the numbers don't lie- this year's team is just about EXACTLY where we were last year- again, after 27 games right around .500 and in the bottom half of the league in offense.

How is that "nothing like last year"? Its nothing like last year if you are comparing it to the 2nd half last year, but comparing apples to apples they are very similar.....

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03-24-2013, 10:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
i still think this team misses the playoffs. guess im one of the few.. really hate wilson's injury.. he was finally playing like a 1st line forward, too. i think if we get him some talented guys to play along side him, we may have the forward we have all wanted for a while.
And for the record, don't misunderstand my post- I also would not be surprised if we miss the playoffs. My main point was if we had a full roster (Wilson especially) and 50 games left instead of 16, there is a good chance we could finish strong like last year...

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03-24-2013, 10:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drwpreds View Post
You say that, but the numbers don't lie- this year's team is just about EXACTLY where we were last year- again, after 27 games right around .500 and in the bottom half of the league in offense.

How is that "nothing like last year"? Its nothing like last year if you are comparing it to the 2nd half last year, but comparing apples to apples they are very similar.....
i think the biggest thing for me is special teams compared to last year. our transition game has suffered without suter and i think that's the biggest reason our forwards haven't been getting on the scoresheet.

when i say nothing like last year, im not referring to stats and standings, which you have good points .. im talking on what this group can achieve.. i really thought we had a chance at the cup last year. this year ill be surprised if we make the playoffs. this team has made me a fool many times before.. but they are gonna have to find a gear i haven't seen yet.. and that means clicking on all cylinders and not excelling at one facet while sucking miserably in the other. i still think our offense is inept but the defense and pekka have truly been worrisome. i don't remember feeling such low confidence in pekka last year.

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03-25-2013, 09:21 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
i think the biggest thing for me is special teams compared to last year. our transition game has suffered without suter and i think that's the biggest reason our forwards haven't been getting on the scoresheet.

when i say nothing like last year, im not referring to stats and standings, which you have good points .. im talking on what this group can achieve.. i really thought we had a chance at the cup last year. this year ill be surprised if we make the playoffs. this team has made me a fool many times before.. but they are gonna have to find a gear i haven't seen yet.. and that means clicking on all cylinders and not excelling at one facet while sucking miserably in the other. i still think our offense is inept but the defense and pekka have truly been worrisome. i don't remember feeling such low confidence in pekka last year.
I hear what you are saying, but again, I am comparing us to last year at the 30 game mark, not the end of the season. Did you think we were a cup contender when we were 12-11-4 and in the bottom half of the league in offense?? I don't think anyone did- I know I didn't.

I do agree with you about Rinne- not nearly as confident as years past.

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03-25-2013, 09:45 AM
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LOL, we beat Calgary and Columbus, and suddenly this is the same team that was in contention for the division last season.

Just like the sellout streak is totally legit and features 17,113 individuals sitting in 17,113 paid-for seats every night, right drw?

This is a mediocre team that's doing itself a disservice to make its way to ninth place, or even 8th, where it gets blasted in 5 games by Chicago.

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03-25-2013, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted by OurGocIsAnAwesomeGoc View Post
LOL, we beat Calgary and Columbus, and suddenly this is the same team that was in contention for the division last season.

Just like the sellout streak is totally legit and features 17,113 individuals sitting in 17,113 paid-for seats every night, right drw?

This is a mediocre team that's doing itself a disservice to make its way to ninth place, or even 8th, where it gets blasted in 5 games by Chicago.
Did you even read my post? Obviously not, because that is not what I am saying...

Again, if you compare this year to last year AT THE SAME POINT IN THE SEASON, the results are very similar- that's all I'm saying. Last year at this time, all the negative Nancy's were saying the same things they are saying now- we stink, blow it up, etc, etc....

It is useless trying to have rational hockey discussion on this board

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03-25-2013, 10:47 AM
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triggrman
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I think the youth on the blueline this year made it tough early and is starting to settle in.

Rinne's last game was really pretty good, neither goal against was his fault.

If we can keep a decent scoring pace we could catch fire and end up as high as 6th with some help.

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03-25-2013, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drwpreds View Post
You say that, but the numbers don't lie- this year's team is just about EXACTLY where we were last year- again, after 27 games right around .500 and in the bottom half of the league in offense.

How is that "nothing like last year"? Its nothing like last year if you are comparing it to the 2nd half last year, but comparing apples to apples they are very similar.....
To what point of last season are you comparing, though? Twenty-seven games deep into last season does not equal 27 games into this season because of the compressed schedule.

How do the Preds numbers right now compare to where they were at 46 games last season? That's a better comparison IMHO based on the fact that 27 games this season is 56% of the 48 game schedule.

Based on that my gut feeling without looking at the numbers I belive the Preds were in a much better position just past the half way point last season and throughout the second half. I don't remember ever feeling any doubts about making the post season last year. This year, it's still a distinct possibility, though.

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03-25-2013, 05:29 PM
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Originally Posted by dubgeek View Post
To what point of last season are you comparing, though? Twenty-seven games deep into last season does not equal 27 games into this season because of the compressed schedule.

How do the Preds numbers right now compare to where they were at 46 games last season? That's a better comparison IMHO based on the fact that 27 games this season is 56% of the 48 game schedule.

Based on that my gut feeling without looking at the numbers I belive the Preds were in a much better position just past the half way point last season and throughout the second half. I don't remember ever feeling any doubts about making the post season last year. This year, it's still a distinct possibility, though.
I guess I didn't do a good job of explaining my original post, becuase no one seems to understand it. I am comparing it to the same number of games as last year.

I realize that the shortened schedule means I am not comparing apples to apples and that we don't have time to recover like we did last year. I stated all of that in my post.

Again, the main point of my post what that our first 30 games this year are very similar to last year, and IF we had a completely healthy roster and 50 games left instead of 16, there is a good chance we could finish strong like last year- that's it....

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03-25-2013, 09:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drwpreds View Post
I guess I didn't do a good job of explaining my original post, becuase no one seems to understand it. I am comparing it to the same number of games as last year.

I realize that the shortened schedule means I am not comparing apples to apples and that we don't have time to recover like we did last year. I stated all of that in my post.

Again, the main point of my post what that our first 30 games this year are very similar to last year, and IF we had a completely healthy roster and 50 games left instead of 16, there is a good chance we could finish strong like last year- that's it....
I understand it completely, not that complicated and you're spot on.

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03-31-2013, 10:50 AM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
this team is nothing like last year's team... yet at least. if we win about 5 in a row here, then we will talk. we should be able to since we're playing the weakest teams in the west. all i see happening is us beating the cellar dwellers and not being sellers at the deadline. then come april, we'll struggle playing playoff teams and miss the playoffs and finish 10th. hope im wrong. wilson may be out for the year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
this team has suffered from an offense/defense mismatch

for the first half of the year we couldn't score diddly squat but Pekka and our defense kept us in games.

when we finally figured out how to score, Pekka and the defense were awful.

if we can keep scoring like we have the last 7 games, but play something resembling Predator defense, we will be just fine and be competitive in the playoffs
well said. Seems the Preds this year are like a 1980's Cadillac or a house of old appliances. One thing breaks down you take the time to fix it and then something else breaks instead

When the team lost Suter to free agency many speculated that Suter would fare worse than Weber. Hasn't exactly been that way looking at the overall picture.

Sure Josi was a great player last season and did quite well in the playoffs. During that time though he was partnered mostly with Gill or Klein if I remember correctly. Not to mention he wasn't in a situation where there was a game every three of four days.


adjusting to the situation has taken perhaps the longest time especially for our blue line.

as far as the offense goes there was a good balanced attack that seemed to fade away in conference semis and lasted into this season. Hard to win games with Bourque as the leading scorer and the only one in double digits.


Trotz has always managed to the most out of his players but this year the committee approach doesn't seem to be working. Perhaps it is the late start and condensed schedule with lack of practice time and.or preparation but excuses aren't give points in the standings.

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03-31-2013, 11:35 AM
  #17
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This years team's engine is out & it is obvious that this team needs more front line depth

I blame ownership & management jointly for going about it on the cheap (waiver pick ups)

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