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Semin's contract set the starting point for Kessel's?

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Old
03-27-2013, 03:44 PM
  #226
JackJ
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Originally Posted by pspot View Post
two things for me

hopefully Nonis uses the 8 years to get the cap hit under 7
and don't give him a NTC

then I'm ok with a 6.5 for 8 on Kessel
At best, 8 years will get 7 with a NMC.

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03-27-2013, 04:00 PM
  #227
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So I decided to do some math and came up with this. Here are the league leaders in points for the 2010 - 2011 - 2012 seasons, their point totals for those 2 seasons and this current season. Interesting numbers:

Stamkos - 231
St. Louis - 215
H. Sedin - 204
Giroux - 199
D. Sedin - 198
Perry - 185
Tavares - 183
Ovechkin - 182
Kessel - 178
Iginla - 175
Malkin - 170
Kovalchuck - 170
Elias - 169
Neal - 156
Spezza - 141


Yes those are total numbers, so if someone (Spezza, Malkin) was injured, they didn't get points and I don't simulate them.

These numbers are easy to find, and they don't care about bias, teammates, pp time, salary or any other filtering criteria.

That's not a bad group to be mixed in with now is it? Name me some of the guys on that list making (not cap hit - Kovalchuck) $7M, or $8M, or more. I'm too lazy to look each of them up.

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03-27-2013, 04:01 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by Diamond Joe Quimby View Post
Who says they're overpaid? Is there an actual quantitative statistic that states that they are overpaid, or is it just a bunch of random individuals sitting at computers thinking they are more knowledgeable than NHL general managers.
there is no definitive answer only the eye of the beholder kind of deal

some people would want them on their team and some people wouldn't

another way to think of it is opportunity cost. the cost of not being able to sign other players for the cost of having those guys on your team.

Which of those players would you trade Lupul for?

if you wouldn't then why? if its because Lupul produces more or equal at 5.5 then wouldn't that mean they are overpaid?

some of those guys its the equivalent of Lupul and Kulemin or Gunnar or Franson

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03-27-2013, 04:15 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by pspot View Post
there is no definitive answer only the eye of the beholder kind of deal

some people would want them on their team and some people wouldn't

another way to think of it is opportunity cost. the cost of not being able to sign other players for the cost of having those guys on your team.

Which of those players would you trade Lupul for?

if you wouldn't then why? if its because Lupul produces more or equal at 5.5 then wouldn't that mean they are overpaid?

some of those guys its the equivalent of Lupul and Kulemin or Gunnar or Franson
Just because one deal is outstanding doesn't mean all other deals suck via transitivity. Your theory also doesn't factor in the other portion of opportunity cost, the asset given up (beyond monetary) to acquire such services.

So tell me, who in this league is worth at least $8 million?

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03-27-2013, 04:22 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by Diamond Joe Quimby View Post
Heatley @7.5, Gaborik @7.5, Vanek @7.142, Semin @7, Marleau @6.9.

Please tell me, which one of those players, holds more value than a 25 year old Phil Kessel. Kessel @ 7 is not an overpayment. Kessel at 7 is the market. You hate the dude, that's cool. You like dudes that play a different style, go with god. But the market is the market.
Can you provide me with a link to the Market that quotes players contract worth?

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03-27-2013, 04:23 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by anderson3133 View Post
Just because one deal is outstanding doesn't mean all other deals suck via transitivity. Your theory also doesn't factor in the other portion of opportunity cost, the asset given up (beyond monetary) to acquire such services.

So tell me, who in this league is worth at least $8 million?
Crosby......but he cost the Pens nothing as they won a lottery so I guess League minimum!

Also what the player cost you should never be a factor in what he should be paid to play for you....as if that is the case we best pay Kessel 10 million plus.

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03-27-2013, 04:35 PM
  #232
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Just remember, in 3-4 years from now, a $7m deal will look more like what a $5m deal looks like now.

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03-27-2013, 04:39 PM
  #233
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Just remember, in 3-4 years from now, a $7m deal will look more like what a $5m deal looks like now.
that's a dangerous way to think, probably what TB thought with Lecalvier and the Rangers with Richards

amazingly contracts to seem to be trending upward really quick and so soon after a lock out its really sad

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03-27-2013, 04:41 PM
  #234
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Originally Posted by diceman934 View Post
Crosby......but he cost the Pens nothing as they won a lottery so I guess League minimum!

Also what the player cost you should never be a factor in what he should be paid to play for you....as if that is the case we best pay Kessel 10 million plus.
It's the definition of opportunity cost though....

Can't have someone using a term without applying its full meaning.

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03-27-2013, 04:48 PM
  #235
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Exactly. Thomas was vital to their success. Chara is vital to their success. Bergeron and previously Savard are vital to their success.

Losing Kessel? Not so vital.
What about the people who say Kessel is the one player who could have made a difference when Boston blew that 3-0 series lead to Philadelphia in 2010. Chances are with him they make it to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2010.

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03-27-2013, 04:49 PM
  #236
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Originally Posted by anderson3133 View Post
It's the definition of opportunity cost though....

Can't have someone using a term without applying its full meaning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anderson3133 View Post
Just because one deal is outstanding doesn't mean all other deals suck via transitivity. Your theory also doesn't factor in the other portion of opportunity cost,the asset given up (beyond monetary) to acquire such services.

So tell me, who in this league is worth at least $8 million?
I replied to the bold part as this should not have anything to do with contract values.

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03-27-2013, 04:54 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by Diamond Joe Quimby View Post
Heatley @7.5, Gaborik @7.5, Vanek @7.142, Semin @7, Marleau @6.9.

Please tell me, which one of those players, holds more value than a 25 year old Phil Kessel. Kessel @ 7 is not an overpayment. Kessel at 7 is the market. You hate the dude, that's cool. You like dudes that play a different style, go with god. But the market is the market.
And all of these guys help their teams win games... Investing that much in a winger is an overpayment in a cap world.

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03-27-2013, 05:05 PM
  #238
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It just boggles my mind that people would rather lose Kessel than spend $2-3m extra to keep him. We have that much money sitting in the pressbox on a regular basis. The fact is that we're not going to get a player anywhere near as good as Phil Kessel in trade.

It's like people in this town don't know a good player when it smacks them in the forehead.

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03-27-2013, 05:06 PM
  #239
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Originally Posted by johnny_rudeboy View Post
And all of these guys help their teams win games... Investing that much in a winger is an overpayment in a cap world.
Phil Kessel certainly helped us win last night and to suggest otherwise is an incredible fallacy.

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03-27-2013, 05:06 PM
  #240
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Originally Posted by Jerkini View Post
It just boggles my mind that people would rather lose Kessel than spend $2-3m extra to keep him. We have that much money sitting in the pressbox on a regular basis. The fact is that we're not going to get a player anywhere near as good as Phil Kessel in trade.

It's like people in this town don't know a good player when it smacks them in the forehead.
But he doesn't compete hard enough along the boards!!1!!

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03-27-2013, 05:11 PM
  #241
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Originally Posted by Jerkini View Post
Phil Kessel certainly helped us win last night and to suggest otherwise is an incredible fallacy.
He thinks he can do better and easily replace him. Kadri's played great, but Kessel still drives the offense on this team.

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03-27-2013, 05:24 PM
  #242
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Originally Posted by johnny_rudeboy View Post
And all of these guys help their teams win games... Investing that much in a winger is an overpayment in a cap world.
Kessel averages between 5 and 6 game winning goals per season, roughly 17% of our wins. If you think that Kessel isn't worth 11% of the cap because he "doesn't help us win", you should probably re-examine what "winning" is.

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03-27-2013, 05:44 PM
  #243
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Kessel asking for $7+ when Lupul, who is twice the player, signed for $5.25. The ballz on this guy

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03-27-2013, 05:48 PM
  #244
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Originally Posted by Jerkini View Post
It just boggles my mind that people would rather lose Kessel than spend $2-3m extra to keep him. We have that much money sitting in the pressbox on a regular basis. The fact is that we're not going to get a player anywhere near as good as Phil Kessel in trade.

It's like people in this town don't know a good player when it smacks them in the forehead.
If there was no cap than we could keep him and pay him 30 million a year.....that 2-3 million in cap space that you are willing to give away may be the difference in us winning the cup.

How do you know for a fact what we could get in return for Kessel if we do trade him? I just do not like him at a cap hit higher than 6.5 million. I also feel that his asking price will be 8 million a year....We need a center and another scoring winger even if we keep Kessel and just where do we get the money to pay these individuals along with the cap to pay our players who have an expiring contract?

Watch what the Canucks do either at the trade deadline or in the summer.....they will be having a fire sale. They have a little over 60 million in contracts for next year with 14 players signed....Luongo is a cap hit of 5.3 and even if the dump his contract that would only give them about 9 million to sign 10 players. Their hopes of getting much for Luongo is gone!

Same reason the Ducks will be trading Ryan as they have committed just over 53 million for just 16 players for next year, just under this years total salary.

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03-27-2013, 05:48 PM
  #245
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All I am saying is that we have played a very offensive game in recent years and played to the strengths of Kessel and other forwards. But we have not been this consistent and close of reaching the playoffs until we finally got strength at center with Kadri, McClement, Grabovski and even Bozak along with a more team oriented style with guys finishing their checks, blocking shots and standing up for each other. Saying that, I am still fine with us resigning Kessel to a similar deal as Semin got. But I dont want to invest more then that and not for a longer term seeing as very few snipers stay productive for their entire career. But it is a team game that consists of individuals and I do realize it is an advantage to have a guy in the team who perhaps not play the style of most others on the team but instead offers skills the rest are not able to do. For good and for worse, the team benefit from not every one playing the same way. Some times a floater who avoid contact is the one who stay fresh and have a clear mind and ability to do the unexpected and win the game.

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03-27-2013, 05:54 PM
  #246
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Originally Posted by johnny_rudeboy View Post
And all of these guys help their teams win games... Investing that much in a winger is an overpayment in a cap world.
Hmmm, so thats why the leafs are doing better in the standings than all of the teams those players play for (tied with the wild).

Fantastic post! You do such a great job of supprting your assumptions...


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03-27-2013, 05:56 PM
  #247
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Originally Posted by johnny_rudeboy View Post
All I am saying is that we have played a very offensive game in recent years and played to the strengths of Kessel and other forwards. But we have not been this consistent and close of reaching the playoffs until we finally got strength at center with Kadri, McClement, Grabovski and even Bozak along with a more team oriented style with guys finishing their checks, blocking shots and standing up for each other. Saying that, I am still fine with us resigning Kessel to a similar deal as Semin got. But I dont want to invest more then that and not for a longer term seeing as very few snipers stay productive for their entire career. But it is a team game that consists of individuals and I do realize it is an advantage to have a guy in the team who perhaps not play the style of most others on the team but instead offers skills the rest are not able to do. For good and for worse, the team benefit from not every one playing the same way. Some times a floater who avoid contact is the one who stay fresh and have a clear mind and ability to do the unexpected and win the game.
Fair enough. Definitely a better post than your previous one.

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03-27-2013, 06:03 PM
  #248
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Originally Posted by Larcos_Unal View Post
Kessel asking for $7+ when Lupul, who is twice the player, signed for $5.25. The ballz on this guy
Prove it and then people might take your assumption seriously.

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03-27-2013, 06:13 PM
  #249
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Originally Posted by pcruz View Post
So I decided to do some math and came up with this. Here are the league leaders in points for the 2010 - 2011 - 2012 seasons, their point totals for those 2 seasons and this current season. Interesting numbers:

Stamkos - 231
St. Louis - 215
H. Sedin - 204
Giroux - 199
D. Sedin - 198
Perry - 185
Tavares - 183
Ovechkin - 182
Kessel - 178
Iginla - 175
Malkin - 170
Kovalchuck - 170
Elias - 169
Neal - 156
Spezza - 141


Yes those are total numbers, so if someone (Spezza, Malkin) was injured, they didn't get points and I don't simulate them.

These numbers are easy to find, and they don't care about bias, teammates, pp time, salary or any other filtering criteria.

That's not a bad group to be mixed in with now is it? Name me some of the guys on that list making (not cap hit - Kovalchuck) $7M, or $8M, or more. I'm too lazy to look each of them up.
Doesnt matter, he's a career minus player so therefore he's garbage...oh wait, so is Steven Stamkos. I guess he's also garbage.

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03-27-2013, 06:26 PM
  #250
diceman934
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Originally Posted by pcruz View Post
So I decided to do some math and came up with this. Here are the league leaders in points for the 2010 - 2011 - 2012 seasons, their point totals for those 2 seasons and this current season. Interesting numbers:

Stamkos - 231
St. Louis - 215
H. Sedin - 204
Giroux - 199
D. Sedin - 198
Perry - 185
Tavares - 183
Ovechkin - 182
Kessel - 178
Iginla - 175
Malkin - 170
Kovalchuck - 170
Elias - 169
Neal - 156
Spezza - 141


Yes those are total numbers, so if someone (Spezza, Malkin) was injured, they didn't get points and I don't simulate them.

These numbers are easy to find, and they don't care about bias, teammates, pp time, salary or any other filtering criteria.

That's not a bad group to be mixed in with now is it? Name me some of the guys on that list making (not cap hit - Kovalchuck) $7M, or $8M, or more. I'm too lazy to look each of them up.
Where is Crosby ? I see only the last two years, Kessel best is being looked at....I get it now!

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