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ATD 2013 Lineup Assassination Thread - Foster Hewitt Division

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Old
03-24-2013, 10:24 AM
  #1
Velociraptor
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ATD 2013 Lineup Assassination Thread - Foster Hewitt Division

Modo - Dawson City Nuggets - (received 3.5 assassinations)
Velociraptor - Trail Smoke Eaters - (received 2 assassinations)
BraveCanadian - Guelph Platers - (received 2 assassinations)
overpass & bluesfan94 - Ottawa Senators - (received 2 assassinations)


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Old
03-24-2013, 02:27 PM
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ck26
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Rosters aren't posted yet, but I want to get in early. Wayne Gretzky and Bobby Orr are both in this division, and the "other" teams are led by Jaromir Jagr and Patrick Roy ... strong.

Not sold on Marian Gaborik as the scorer on Ottawa's first line. As is, it's a good line, but if someone can talk him up and demonstrate that he's elite, it could be a great one. I love Ottawa's second line on a Ken Hitchcock team. Doug Wilson and Al MacInnis on that team go a long way towards making up for the shortfalls in firepower up front, something I also hope Larry Robinson, Sergei Zubov and Nikolai Sologubov do for my Dallas Blackhawks =)

I don't like Nash and Jagr on the same line for Guelph; I don't see enough grinding and scrapping on that line. Swapping Nash and Cashman would put Cash, Francis and Jagr on the same line, and I think they all play at the same "pace" ... they're a slower, more deliberate trio that will cycle and play near the net well, while Nash and Mosienko are both speedsters, and Nash + Stewart would be a nice physical duo as well. That's a big, physical defense, but also a really, really slow one.

Dawson is a very balanced team ... the scoring line isn't overwhelming, there are no weak lines, the checking lines are good but not lights-out. Curious to see how Orr is employed, because that will probably determine a lot about what Dawson looks like.

I love the first line of the Joe Pelletier quote in Goulet's bio; Goulet / Gretzky / Geoffrion looks really, really good. No Kurri-quality checker on that line, but they could score a ton. I love Trail's top 4 defense ... good balance, good all-around ability there. But Gump Worsley? There are divisions where Gump Worsley would be good enough, but this one?

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03-24-2013, 03:38 PM
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POWERPLAY

PP1: Michel Goulet - Wayne Gretzky - Mike Gartner - Georges Boucher - Bernie Geoffrion
PP2: Paul Kariya - Bobby Smith - Cecil Dillon - Allan Stanley - Bill Quackenbush

PENALTY KILL

PK1: Craig MacTavish - Marty Pavelich - Allan Stanley - Bill Quackenbush
PK2: Wayne Gretzky - Bruce MacGregor - Jack Portland - Glen Harmon
PK3: Phil Goyette - Ab McDonald - Allan Stanley - Bill Quackenbush


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03-24-2013, 03:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ck26 View Post
I love the first line of the Joe Pelletier quote in Goulet's bio; Goulet / Gretzky / Geoffrion looks really, really good. No Kurri-quality checker on that line, but they could score a ton. I love Trail's top 4 defense ... good balance, good all-around ability there. But Gump Worsley? There are divisions where Gump Worsley would be good enough, but this one?
Worsley is by far the weakest goaltender in the division, but is he really a liability? He's behind a strong defensive corps that works very well in keeping the puck out of their zone. Worst case scenario, the Smoke Eaters have an able "money" playoff backstopper in Cheevers should Worsley falter. However both had very nice playoff resumes.

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03-24-2013, 09:53 PM
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overpass
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Not sold on Marian Gaborik as the scorer on Ottawa's first line. As is, it's a good line, but if someone can talk him up and demonstrate that he's elite, it could be a great one.
I'm glad you brought this up. Gaborik as a first liner is a bit of a jump for him, and obviously he's no Maurice Richard, but I think he's a good fit for this specific situation.

Toe Blake was a strong and balanced offensive player whose defining characteristics are hard work and smart play. Elmer Lach was a strong skater who played well both ways and was a great passer and playmaker offensively. Gaborik is a perfect fit, as an explosive skater and scorer who will threaten opposing bluelines that aren't mobile enough to skate with him and force any defenders to respect his speed. He doesn't have Richard's ability to drive the net in traffic, but Blake can contribute in that area for the line.

Gaborik is also a good player for this specific role - better than it might initially appear. On the surface he has scored 40 goals three times in a low scoring era, so we know he has goal scoring chops. But he is a particularly effective goal scorer at even strength. (Power play goals count too, but Gaborik will be a minor player on Ottawa's power play so it doesn't matter so much in this situation.)

Check out this list of the top goal scorers since the 2001-02 season.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...order_by=goals

Gaborik is 8th in goals scored over that time, behind Kovalchuk, Iginla, Heatley, Hossa, Ovechkin, Marleau, and Lecavalier. But if we look as ES goals only, Gaborik is tied for fourth with Hossa (in 100 fewer GP) and behind only Iginla, Kovalchuk, and Ovechkin.

Gaborik will also benefit from playing with a skilled playmaking centre. For much of his career he played without one. In his first four NHL seasons, Gaborik was centred by Jim Dowd, the late Sergei Zholtok, and others. Leaving out his rookie season, he took about 3.3 shots per game and shot about 11% in those seasons.

After the lockout, Gaborik finally got to play with skilled playmaking centres - Pavol Demitra, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Vinny Prospal, and Brad Richards. With better service from his centres his shot rate has risen to 3.7 - 4 per game and he has shot 15%, with the result that he has scored 40 goals regularly or been on pace to do so. The exception was the 2010-11 season when the Rangers were without a skilled playmaking centre, and Gaborik shot only 11.5% on 3.3 shots/game.

Gaborik is the type of winger who will be able to take full advantage of having a skilled playmaking centre. And Ottawa's top three centres have all led the league in assists at least once (7 times in total) so he should be in a good position to score goals like he has in his best goal-scoring seasons.

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03-24-2013, 10:06 PM
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BenchBrawl
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Goulet-Gretzky-Geoffrion

GGG

the triple G line

Even Gartner would fit to replace an injured Geoffrion

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03-24-2013, 10:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Jafar View Post
Goulet-Gretzky-Geoffrion

GGG

the triple G line

Even Gartner would fit to replace an injured Geoffrion
And the power play is Goulet-Gretzky-Gartner-Geoffrion-Georges

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03-24-2013, 10:13 PM
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Velociraptor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jafar View Post
Goulet-Gretzky-Geoffrion

GGG

the triple G line

Even Gartner would fit to replace an injured Geoffrion
I call it, the 3G Network

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Old
03-24-2013, 10:16 PM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
I'm glad you brought this up. Gaborik as a first liner is a bit of a jump for him, and obviously he's no Maurice Richard, but I think he's a good fit for this specific situation.

Toe Blake was a strong and balanced offensive player whose defining characteristics are hard work and smart play. Elmer Lach was a strong skater who played well both ways and was a great passer and playmaker offensively. Gaborik is a perfect fit, as an explosive skater and scorer who will threaten opposing bluelines that aren't mobile enough to skate with him and force any defenders to respect his speed. He doesn't have Richard's ability to drive the net in traffic, but Blake can contribute in that area for the line.

Gaborik is also a good player for this specific role - better than it might initially appear. On the surface he has scored 40 goals three times in a low scoring era, so we know he has goal scoring chops. But he is a particularly effective goal scorer at even strength. (Power play goals count too, but Gaborik will be a minor player on Ottawa's power play so it doesn't matter so much in this situation.)

Check out this list of the top goal scorers since the 2001-02 season.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...order_by=goals

Gaborik is 8th in goals scored over that time, behind Kovalchuk, Iginla, Heatley, Hossa, Ovechkin, Marleau, and Lecavalier. But if we look as ES goals only, Gaborik is tied for fourth with Hossa (in 100 fewer GP) and behind only Iginla, Kovalchuk, and Ovechkin.

Gaborik will also benefit from playing with a skilled playmaking centre. For much of his career he played without one. In his first four NHL seasons, Gaborik was centred by Jim Dowd, the late Sergei Zholtok, and others. Leaving out his rookie season, he took about 3.3 shots per game and shot about 11% in those seasons.

After the lockout, Gaborik finally got to play with skilled playmaking centres - Pavol Demitra, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Vinny Prospal, and Brad Richards. With better service from his centres his shot rate has risen to 3.7 - 4 per game and he has shot 15%, with the result that he has scored 40 goals regularly or been on pace to do so. The exception was the 2010-11 season when the Rangers were without a skilled playmaking centre, and Gaborik shot only 11.5% on 3.3 shots/game.

Gaborik is the type of winger who will be able to take full advantage of having a skilled playmaking centre. And Ottawa's top three centres have all led the league in assists at least once (7 times in total) so he should be in a good position to score goals like he has in his best goal-scoring seasons.
I get that Toe Blake and Elmer Lach are the perfect linemates to get a one-dimensional goal scorer to succeed (it's why I thought you were going to draft Gordie Drillion for that spot). So in that sense, Gaborik is in a good spot. And Gaborik brings a decent but not great defensive game, so the top line will be okay going against other top lines like Ken Hitchcock likes (something that wouldn't be true if you had drafted Drillion).

But I really don't agree with using scorers like Gaborik as offensive even strength specialists. Sturm did the same thing with Bill Guerin awhile back and I didn't agree with it then.

I get that Gaborik ranked higher in even strength scoring than overall scoring, but how did he accomplish that? By being on a scoring line AND the first power play line in real life. These guys aren't robots - scoring line players especially need to get into some kind of rhythm to be most effective (a big reason why real life 4th lines are rarely just the best offensive players left over), and benching Gaborik for the full powerplay (because he isn't that good at it) is going to be 2 full minutes that he's getting cold, and I really don't think you can count on his full even strength value.

Not to mention the fact that Gaborik, like Guerin, spent a large part of his prime playing for Jacques Lemaire, whose teams always play a style where they both take and draw significantly fewer penalties. So a larger percentage of Gaborik's ice time is going to be at even strength anyway just by virtue of who he played for.

So in conclusion, I think Gaborik's overall numbers are a better indicator of what you are going to get from him than his even strength numbers, even if you bench him on the powerplay.


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe; 03-25-2013 at 01:12 AM..
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Old
03-24-2013, 10:20 PM
  #10
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With the first completed roster of the draft, time to throw it to the wolves.



Dawson City Nuggets

General Manager: Modo

Head Coach: Herb Brooks
Assistant Coach: Don Cherry


Dickie Moore - Henri Richard - Babe Dye
Charlie Simmer - Joe Nieuwendyk - Punch Broadbent
Brenden Morrow - Kirk Muller - Reggie Leach
Wendel Clark - Metro Prystai - Pat Verbeek
x - Alex Tanguay, Gary Dornhoefer

Bobby Orr - Hap Day
Derian Hatcher - Clarence "Taffy" Abel
Andre "Moose" Dupont - Kenny Jonsson
x - Al Iafrate

Bernie Parent
Dave Kerr

PP1: Moore - Richard - Dye - Simmer - Orr

PP2: Nieuwendyk - Morrow - Leach - Broadbent - Day

PK1: Muller - Clark - Hatcher - Dupont

PK2: Prystai - Verbeek - Abel - Jonsson

Obviously open to suggestion as my track record here in the ATD is still spotty at best.

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03-24-2013, 10:46 PM
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Some thought about Dawson City:

Modo got off to a roaring start, I thought he was on his way to building a true contender - I'm not sure the whole puzzle equals some of the pieces, though. I think Richard is a great player, but subpar as a #1 C. His offence really isn't any better than guys picked 50 spots later. 2/3 of his second line is underwhelming, with Nieuwendyk and Simmer being weak at their position - especially Simmer. Broadbent is a fine #2 RW though. Someone took a shot at his 3rd line earlier in the draft, I think it's a pretty solid line that will provide some secondary scoring as well as jam. Great personel on the 4th line but its kinda moot as 4th lines don't play into outcomes much, this should be a team that really rolls four lines though.

Any defence with Orr is going to be at least alright, I like modo's top four overall as well. Parent is hit or miss in net, but can also steal wins in the playoffs.

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03-25-2013, 01:04 AM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Originally Posted by Modo View Post
With the first completed roster of the draft, time to throw it to the wolves.



Dawson City Nuggets

General Manager: Modo

Head Coach: Herb Brooks
Assistant Coach: Don Cherry


Dickie Moore - Henri Richard - Babe Dye
Charlie Simmer - Joe Nieuwendyk - Punch Broadbent
Brenden Morrow - Kirk Muller - Reggie Leach
Wendel Clark - Metro Prystai - Pat Verbeek
x - Alex Tanguay, Gary Dornhoefer

Bobby Orr - Hap Day
Derian Hatcher - Clarence "Taffy" Abel
Andre "Moose" Dupont - Kenny Jonsson
x - Al Iafrate

Bernie Parent
Dave Kerr

PP1: Moore - Richard - Dye - Simmer - Orr

PP2: Nieuwendyk - Morrow - Leach - Broadbent - Day

PK1: Muller - Clark - Hatcher - Dupont

PK2: Prystai - Verbeek - Abel - Jonsson

Obviously open to suggestion as my track record here in the ATD is still spotty at best.
I'll just talk about your defensemen - You have a fine Top 3 and weak depth. Well, you really don't have a legit #2 defenseman - I see Hap Day as a solid but unspectacular #3 in a 32 team draft. But he's next to the greatest ever, so the top pairing works, and Day has the right skillset to play next to Orr.

Derian Hatcher is a solid defensive minded #3, but I really don't like Taffy Abel in a top 4 role. The second pairing is going to keep the crease clear as can be, but is going to really be vulnerable to fast skaters in the transition game. And they'll have trouble getting the puck out of their zone if faced with a good forecheck.

Bottom pairing seems below average.

Bobby Orr is the best PP QB of all time, and it isn't close, but he doesn't have a lot of support on the points. I don't think Charlie Simmer has any business on the point - he was a front of the net guy - a lesser version of John LeClair. Hap Day is okay for the second unit, but none of your other defensemen have much skill there.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but you need to bench either Dupont or Jonsson for Wild Thing. Probably Dupont, who is pretty redundant with Hatcher and Abel in the lineup. Iafrate will make blunders, but has offensive upside that really nobody else in your bottom 4 comes close to. And your powerplay needs someone who can play next to Bobby Orr.

Derian Hatcher - Bobby Orr needs to be your first PK duo, and without looking at who else anyone else has, it very well could end up the best one in the draft. Abel and Day would make a fine second PK.

Getting away from defensemen for a second, your PK forwards are going to be weak no matter what. Henri Richard rarely killed penalties in real life, but that was more ice time management than anything. I think the PK forwards need to be some combination or Richard, Broadbent, Morrow, Muller, and Prystai, though none of them are going to be outstanding for those roles. Just for god's sake get Wendel Clark off the penalty kill. Actually, Hap Day sometimes played forward, maybe using him as a forward on the PK is an option.

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Old
03-25-2013, 05:19 AM
  #13
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I get that Gaborik ranked higher in even strength scoring than overall scoring, but how did he accomplish that? By being on a scoring line AND the first power play line in real life. These guys aren't robots - scoring line players especially need to get into some kind of rhythm to be most effective (a big reason why real life 4th lines are rarely just the best offensive players left over), and benching Gaborik for the full powerplay (because he isn't that good at it) is going to be 2 full minutes that he's getting cold, and I really don't think you can count on his full even strength value.
This is pretty speculative, in my opinion...the idea that not playing on a powerplay makes scoringliners "cold". Does this mean that Craig Ramsay and Henri Richard would score even more at even strength if we gave them PP time? It's a rather "squishy" theory - to which you are entitled - but I'm not at all sure I agree with you here.

Also, there are a number of reasons why the best "leftover offensive" players aren't used on real-life 4th lines, prominent among them the fact that these players generally depend on heavy powerplay minutes for their offensive production. How a player scores in different game situations is a matter of opportunity, and also skillset. Some guys are better on the powerplay because they have great close-quarters puck control and thrive when not tasked with playing the physical, up-and-down game that predominates at even strength. Some guys are better scorers at even strength because their game revolves around some combination of speed, physicality and the ability to create turnovers - all of which are more important aspects of even strength play. It is not only a question of hot and cold, but also of specific skills - of how players score best.

While I agree with you that you can't necessarily expect full even-strength value for guys like Gaborik and Guerin if they're only getting ES minutes in the ATD, some guys have skillsets which are simply better for even-strength play, and that should be taken into account. Gaborik is one of those guys.

Quote:
Not to mention the fact that Gaborik, like Guerin, spent a large part of his prime playing for Jacques Lemaire, whose teams always play a style where they both take and draw significantly fewer penalties. So a larger percentage of Gaborik's ice time is going to be at even strength anyway just by virtue of who he played for.
An interesting point, and relevant to Gaborik, though much less so to Guerin, who you well know didn't blossom offensively until after he left New Jersey. In fact, it is almost completely irrelevant to Bill Guerin's offensive prime.

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03-25-2013, 06:01 AM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
This is pretty speculative, in my opinion...the idea that not playing on a powerplay makes scoringliners "cold". Does this mean that Craig Ramsay and Henri Richard would score even more at even strength if we gave them PP time? It's a rather "squishy" theory - to which you are entitled - but I'm not at all sure I agree with you here.
I don't think really think it's the same. Henri Richard dominated puck possession and Ramsay was a dominant forechecker on Buffalo's small rink.

Edit: Heh, if you only look at Richard's even strength stats, he was a better scorer than Jean Beliveau at even strength, and I don't think anyone really thinks that is going to be the case with normal ATD usage.

I don't know, maybe my reasoning is totally off, but there has to be a reason why NHL coaches basically never use their offensive players like overpass is using Gaborik, right? I mean, guys like Richard and Ramsay weren't used on the PP because their overall games were too valuable at even strength (and their teams had other guys to play on the PP). Someone like Gaborik really doesn't have much of an overall game, at least at this level.

I don't know, are there any examples of hockey coaches using a guy who is basically an offense-only player as an even strength specialist? Or maybe coaches should just start looking at advanced stats... heh.

Quote:
Also, there are a number of reasons why the best "leftover offensive" players aren't used on real-life 4th lines, prominent among them the fact that these players generally depend on heavy powerplay minutes for their offensive production. How a player scores in different game situations is a matter of opportunity, and also skillset. Some guys are better on the powerplay because they have great close-quarters puck control and thrive when not tasked with playing the physical, up-and-down game that predominates at even strength. Some guys are better scorers at even strength because their game revolves around some combination of speed, physicality and the ability to create turnovers - all of which are more important aspects of even strength play. It is not only a question of hot and cold, but also of specific skills - of how players score best.

While I agree with you that you can't necessarily expect full even-strength value for guys like Gaborik and Guerin if they're only getting ES minutes in the ATD, some guys have skillsets which are simply better for even-strength play, and that should be taken into account. Gaborik is one of those guys.
I definitely agree with you that some guys have skillsets that are better at even strength. Maybe I'm not explaining it well, but I just think there are too many variables involved to assume a guy's even strength stats will hold up if he is used completely differently from what he is used to - in this case, first line duty at even strength, then no powerplay time.

Another thing about benching Gaborik is that if screws up the lines after the PP. After riding the pine for the full PP, he either has to go out with inferior linemates or ride the pine for another minute or so until Blake and Lach are ready to go again.

Quote:
An interesting point, and relevant to Gaborik, though much less so to Guerin, who you well know didn't blossom offensively until after he left New Jersey. In fact, it is almost completely irrelevant to Bill Guerin's offensive prime.
Meh, any chance to rag on Guerin, and I'll take it. I hate that guy. He'd probably demand a trade if he wasn't getting PP time, anyway, since it would hurt his personal stats.


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Old
03-25-2013, 06:27 AM
  #15
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I don't know, maybe my reasoning is totally off, but there has to be a reason why NHL coaches basically never use their offensive players like overpass is using Gaborik, right? I mean, guys like Richard and Ramsay weren't used on the PP because their overall games were too valuable at even strength (and their teams had other guys to play on the PP). Someone like Gaborik really doesn't have much of an overall game, at least at this level.

I don't know, are there any examples of hockey coaches using a guy who is basically an offense-only player as an even strength specialist? Or maybe coaches should just start looking at advanced stats... heh.



I definitely agree with you that some guys have skillsets that are better at even strength. Maybe I'm not explaining it well, but I just think there are too many variables involved to assume a guy's even strength stats will hold up if he is used completely differently from what he is used to - in this case, first line duty at even strength, then no powerplay time.

Another thing about benching Gaborik is that if screws up the lines after the PP. After riding the pine for the full PP, he either has to go out with inferior linemates or ride the pine for another minute or so until Blake and Lach are ready to go again.
The basic plan for Ottawa's PP is for the second line to play on the first unit and the first line to play on the second unit. So Gaborik should get some PP time, just not first unit time. Mostly because I don't want to break up a line if it isn't necessary.

I would say he's the 6th best PP forward of the top 6, so he's the most likely to be taken off the PP for another winger, whether it's Taylor or Wharram or Sutter or Burch.

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03-25-2013, 06:46 AM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ck26 View Post
Not sold on Marian Gaborik as the scorer on Ottawa's first line. As is, it's a good line, but if someone can talk him up and demonstrate that he's elite, it could be a great one.
Gaborik is a top goal scorer in the actual NHL. Elite for a 1st line in the ATD.... not so sure..

Quote:
I don't like Nash and Jagr on the same line for Guelph; I don't see enough grinding and scrapping on that line. Swapping Nash and Cashman would put Cash, Francis and Jagr on the same line, and I think they all play at the same "pace" ... they're a slower, more deliberate trio that will cycle and play near the net well, while Nash and Mosienko are both speedsters, and Nash + Stewart would be a nice physical duo as well. That's a big, physical defense, but also a really, really slow one.
I'll consider it but I see my first line playing a possession game and since Francis is a very so so goalscorer at this level I like giving he and Jagr another option for a trigger man.

Too predictable if Jagr had to be the only good threat to score.

Quote:
I love the first line of the Joe Pelletier quote in Goulet's bio; Goulet / Gretzky / Geoffrion looks really, really good. No Kurri-quality checker on that line, but they could score a ton.
A sick amount of offensive talent on that line but you're right they'll have to be putting the puck in regularly to make up for the other side of the puck. But they should.

Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
I'm glad you brought this up. Gaborik as a first liner is a bit of a jump for him, and obviously he's no Maurice Richard, but I think he's a good fit for this specific situation.

Toe Blake was a strong and balanced offensive player whose defining characteristics are hard work and smart play. Elmer Lach was a strong skater who played well both ways and was a great passer and playmaker offensively. Gaborik is a perfect fit, as an explosive skater and scorer who will threaten opposing bluelines that aren't mobile enough to skate with him and force any defenders to respect his speed. He doesn't have Richard's ability to drive the net in traffic, but Blake can contribute in that area for the line.

Gaborik is also a good player for this specific role - better than it might initially appear. On the surface he has scored 40 goals three times in a low scoring era, so we know he has goal scoring chops. But he is a particularly effective goal scorer at even strength. (Power play goals count too, but Gaborik will be a minor player on Ottawa's power play so it doesn't matter so much in this situation.)
I agree with what you're saying about Gaborik. I do think he benefits with someone to actually get him the puck on a regular basis.

Last year I boosted him up because I felt that on my third line he would be perfect for a couple of reasons:

1) His ES goal scoring was very impressive as you noted, and he wouldn't be getting a lot of PP time on my team so that fit made a lot of sense to me, and

2) Playing on the third line hopefully limited his minutes and therefore his injury troubles.

Lach and Gaborik on a first line have a very big question mark as to health at any given time.


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I get that Gaborik ranked higher in even strength scoring than overall scoring, but how did he accomplish that? By being on a scoring line AND the first power play line in real life. These guys aren't robots - scoring line players especially need to get into some kind of rhythm to be most effective (a big reason why real life 4th lines are rarely just the best offensive players left over), and benching Gaborik for the full powerplay (because he isn't that good at it) is going to be 2 full minutes that he's getting cold, and I really don't think you can count on his full even strength value.

Not to mention the fact that Gaborik, like Guerin, spent a large part of his prime playing for Jacques Lemaire, whose teams always play a style where they both take and draw significantly fewer penalties. So a larger percentage of Gaborik's ice time is going to be at even strength anyway just by virtue of who he played for.

So in conclusion, I think Gaborik's overall numbers are a better indicator of what you are going to get from him than his even strength numbers, even if you bench him on the powerplay.
I don't know how much I buy into this theory but even if you look at overall goalscoring numbers, Gaborik is pretty decent with 3 top tens.

Weak for a 1st line sniper maybe but at least he can play that role. Similar to Nash as the third best player on my first line.

As I said my biggest issue is health with him and Lach on the same line.

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03-25-2013, 06:46 AM
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I don't know, are there any examples of hockey coaches using a guy who is basically an offense-only player as an even strength specialist? Or maybe coaches should just start looking at advanced stats... heh.
Sure, there are some examples. Going back to a topic from the other assassination thread, Wayne Cashman is actually a perfect example of this type of player. He was a decent checker, but basically his job on the Bruins was to play a very specialized offensive role at even strength. Cashman got **** all for powerplay time, with John Bucyk manning the left wing on the man advantage and often playing the whole shift.

Among contemporary players that I know well, you could put Ryane Clowe into this category. Like Cashman, Clowe is a decent checker, but his best gift is to blow plays up with his physicality and grind and cycle at even strength - and he does this very well. Clowe plays 1st line ES minutes for the Sharks, but only gets 2 minutes and change of average PP icetime, playing about 2 out of 3 shifts with the second unit mop-up guys, and sometimes sitting out the powerplay entirely.

So yeah, it does happen, and I think it's a legitimate tactic with guys who bring especially robust even-strength skillsets, but lack the elite hands to be high-end powerplay performers. I also think it would happen more often in the real NHL if the talent pool were as deep as it is in the ATD.

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03-25-2013, 07:19 AM
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The basic plan for Ottawa's PP is for the second line to play on the first unit and the first line to play on the second unit. So Gaborik should get some PP time, just not first unit time. Mostly because I don't want to break up a line if it isn't necessary.

I would say he's the 6th best PP forward of the top 6, so he's the most likely to be taken off the PP for another winger, whether it's Taylor or Wharram or Sutter or Burch.
Okay. That sounds like it may work. I'll save further commenting on your team until you post it for assassination. I know it can be annoying to be assassinated before finalizing your roster.

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Sure, there are some examples. Going back to a topic from the other assassination thread, Wayne Cashman is actually a perfect example of this type of player. He was a decent checker, but basically his job on the Bruins was to play a very specialized offensive role at even strength. Cashman got **** all for powerplay time, with John Bucyk manning the left wing on the man advantage and often playing the whole shift.

Among contemporary players that I know well, you could put Ryane Clowe into this category. Like Cashman, Clowe is a decent checker, but his best gift is to blow plays up with his physicality and grind and cycle at even strength - and he does this very well. Clowe plays 1st line ES minutes for the Sharks, but only gets 2 minutes and change of average PP icetime, playing about 2 out of 3 shifts with the second unit mop-up guys, and sometimes sitting out the powerplay entirely.

So yeah, it does happen, and I think it's a legitimate tactic with guys who bring especially robust even-strength skillsets, but lack the elite hands to be high-end powerplay performers. I also think it would happen more often in the real NHL if the talent pool were as deep as it is in the ATD.
Eh, Cashman and Clowe really aren't anything like Gaborik. They are effectively elite grinders, and that's their role. I guess to an extent, Bill Guerin could be like that. I don't see the parallel with a speedy sniper like Gaborik.

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03-25-2013, 07:20 AM
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Sure, there are some examples. Going back to a topic from the other assassination thread, Wayne Cashman is actually a perfect example of this type of player. He was a decent checker, but basically his job on the Bruins was to play a very specialized offensive role at even strength. Cashman got **** all for powerplay time, with John Bucyk manning the left wing on the man advantage and often playing the whole shift.

Among contemporary players that I know well, you could put Ryane Clowe into this category. Like Cashman, Clowe is a decent checker, but his best gift is to blow plays up with his physicality and grind and cycle at even strength - and he does this very well. Clowe plays 1st line ES minutes for the Sharks, but only gets 2 minutes and change of average PP icetime, playing about 2 out of 3 shifts with the second unit mop-up guys, and sometimes sitting out the powerplay entirely.

So yeah, it does happen, and I think it's a legitimate tactic with guys who bring especially robust even-strength skillsets, but lack the elite hands to be high-end powerplay performers. I also think it would happen more often in the real NHL if the talent pool were as deep as it is in the ATD.
TDMM specified offense-first players so I'll add an example. Mike Gartner early in his Washington career. Like Gaborik he was a scoring winger whose best weapon was his speed. In 1981-82 he scored 45 goals but played on the second PP unit behind Maruk, Walter, and Valentine.

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03-25-2013, 07:38 AM
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Eh, Cashman and Clowe really aren't anything like Gaborik. They are effectively elite grinders, and that's their role. I guess to an extent, Bill Guerin could be like that. I don't see the parallel with a speedy sniper like Gaborik.
Well, like I said, physicality/grinding is only one of the skills that translates better to even-strength scoring than to scoring on the powerplay. Speed and the ability to create turnovers are the others, and Gaborik has the former in spades, and the latter at least somewhat. Tony Amonte is probably a better example of a player in this mold, and while he was obviously better defensively than Gaborik, I would still describe him as an offense-first player.

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03-25-2013, 08:39 AM
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POWERPLAY

PP1: Michel Goulet - Wayne Gretzky - Mike Gartner - Georges Boucher - Bernie Geoffrion
PP2: Paul Kariya - Bobby Smith - Cecil Dillon - Allan Stanley - Bill Quackenbush

PENALTY KILL

PK1: Craig MacTavish - Marty Pavelich - Allan Stanley - Bill Quackenbush
PK2: Wayne Gretzky - Bruce MacGregor - Jack Portland - Glen Harmon
PK3: Phil Goyette - Ab McDonald - Allan Stanley - Bill Quackenbush
Coaching and Leadership

Wayne Gretzky doesn't get nearly enough credit for being an awesome captain. The fact that the best player ever never rested on his laurels and worked so hard was really inspiring to his teammates. Unfortunately, he's going to really have to carry the leadership load himself here, because I don't think there's much secondary leadership on this team. I think Boucher is okay as an A, but past that, there isn't much. Paul Kariya was captain of a crappy team in a 30 team league because he was their best player and they didn't have anyone better. I don't think he's much of a leader here.

Pat Quinn can coach an ATD team, but he's definitely below average. That's why the best offensive coaches went early this time - they are in limited supply. If you don't get Toe Blake or Lester Patrick, both of whom deserve their high draft positions, you have to make sure to get someone like Ivan, Sather, or Hart, or else you're stuck with Quinn. Okay, that might be a little harsh. How is Quinn as a fit for your team? I can see good and bad aspects. He was a fan of letting his offensive players play, which definitely fits Wayne Gretzky. On the other hand, he didn't really believe in line matching and used all his lines in all situations. In Edmonton, Glen Sather really went out of his way to give Gretzky every offensive opportunity possible, while letting Mark Messier and the lower lines handle the more defensive assignments. So it will be something of an adjustment for Gretzky to play in all situations.

Quinn was known as a motivator, not much of a tactician, and I think you could have really done yourself well by getting a tactician as an assistant coach.

Forwards

Gretzky is my pick for best player ever, and you got him good linemates. It's not a traditional Gretzky line - Goulet definitely does have some glue guy attributes, but he isn't a body guard. And he's good defensively, but I'm not sure if he's good enough to let Gretzky cheat quite as much as he could in Edmonton (it's often said that Kurri playing so well defensively that Gretzky could cheat is one of the biggest uncredited offensive contributions of all time). But the line will score, and they will score a ton. Geoffrion's best attribute is his shot, but I like the fact that he was halfway decent at passing too - Gretzky was definitely the best all-time at the give-and-go game, as both the giver and the goer.

I see what you are going for with the second line - draft Paul Kariya (who is an excellent catalyst for the second line) and try to recreate his real life line. You got the skill sets right, but I'm not sure about the skill. Gartner is okay - somewhat below average as a second liner, but brings a ton of speed and a pretty solid two-way game. When I saw the way your team was shaping up, I was really looking forward to seeing who you'd finish off this line with. I'm not sure about Bobby Smith as a glue guy. He brought some amount of grit, but I don't think he brought enough to really carry a line with an unphysical player like Gartner and a downright softie like Kariya.

Good third line - Goyette and Dillon are good third line scorers who bring solid defensive games (maybe Goyette was more than solid). Pavelich brings very little offense, but is one of the best defensive wingers ever - he'll be very useful against Jagr, who is in your division.

I don't think MacTavish is anything special, but at least he's on a 4th line this time, where he can grind away and play solid defense. MacGregor on the other hand, reads like a very strong two-way player who could pass as a third liner. McDonald seems like a solid all-rounder.

Defense

Quackenbush is a bargain basement #1 and Boucher is an average #2, so it's a weaker than average top pairing. Both two-way guys with Quack leaning more towards D and Boucher more towards O, so they fit together.

Good second pairing, though the right-handed Stanley should play on the right side. You got something of a steal with Stanley, whose lack of foot speed scares GMs away. But the man was a physical beast with underrated puck skills - he could pass for a #2 in this thing (though a fairly weak one), so having him as a #3 is a great start to a second pairing. Glen Harmon is decent #4, and I like that he apparently was a good skater - it'll help cover up Stanley's one major weakness. I think this is pairing is a bit above average because of Stanley.

Laurent and Portland are both average bottom pairing defensemen. Both are great defensively, but how will they be in transition?

Goaltending

Worsley isn't a bad starter here, but he's definitely below average. Perhaps his biggest weakness is that he didn't usually play that many games in the regular season. Expect Cheevers to see a higher than average number of games for a backup - and honestly, though Cheevers has a good rep as a money goalie, I don't think he's a particularly great backup in the regular season. He'll be able to play fairly well in the playoffs if need be though.

Spares

I was really hoping Tumba would be used on a 4th line this time. I think he's a better even strength player than MacTavish, but I guess you need MacT on the PK. If Frank Patrick/Art Duncan/Lloyd Cook/Bobby Rowe are #4s, then Loughlin could easily be a #6. He was behind them, but not THAT far behind. MacAdam could pass as a 4th liner, and Green is basically an offensive ringer I guess.

I would seriously consider dropping your least important spare and getting Quinn a good assistant, though.

Special teams

Great 1st PP, with Gartner the only weakness, and Gretzky and Geoffrion particularly strong. Goulet is the net guy I'm sure.

Second PP is pretty average all-round with Kariya really the only one who stands out as strong for his role. I guess Bobby Smith is passable as a net presence.

Pretty good penalty killing defensemen, though again those who are as anal as me want to see Quack on the left side and Stanley on the right side. Up front, Pavelich is an elite PKer. MacTavish really isn't anything special as a PKer, though he can do it, but I don't think you have anyone better to take faceoffs on the first unit unless you want Gretzky to do it, so that brings it down a little.

I love Gretzky on the second waive of the PK to take advantage of tired forwards. MacGregor is good for a standard second unit, but would be even better if he was talented enough to be a big time SHG thread, as well.

Goyette could easily be on a second PK unit, so he's very good on the third.

Overall

I like:

A ton of offense from the first line
Lots of scoring depth
Top 4 defensemen who are greater than the sum of their parts
Wayne Gretzky up front and Geoffrion on the point of the powerplay!

I have concerns about:

A fairly soft top 6, especially the second line
How will Cheevers handle a higher than average regular season workload?
Below average coaching and leadership, past Wayne Gretzky
Lack of a natural #1 penalty killing center (IMO, MacT is largely remembered for the team he played on)

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03-25-2013, 08:42 AM
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I call it, the 3G Network
3G or 4G, I can see the telecomms scrambling over each other for endorsements...

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03-25-2013, 08:55 AM
  #23
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Coaching and Leadership

Wayne Gretzky doesn't get nearly enough credit for being an awesome captain. The fact that the best player ever never rested on his laurels and worked so hard was really inspiring to his teammates.
Agree.


Quote:
How is Quinn as a fit for your team? I can see good and bad aspects. He was a fan of letting his offensive players play, which definitely fits Wayne Gretzky. On the other hand, he didn't really believe in line matching and used all his lines in all situations.
This keeps getting brought up but it isn't true.

Quinn did favour making key matchups and often employed shadows against key players too.


Quote:
Quinn was known as a motivator, not much of a tactician, and I think you could have really done yourself well by getting a tactician as an assistant coach.
Agreed. Quinn is a players coach.

He seemed to have a overriding game plan and then just went with his gut and responded to the flow of the game within that game plan.


Quote:
And he's good defensively, but I'm not sure if he's good enough to let Gretzky cheat quite as much as he could in Edmonton (it's often said that Kurri playing so well defensively that Gretzky could cheat is one of the biggest uncredited offensive contributions of all time). But the line will score, and they will score a ton.
Honestly, while Kurri was a very responsible defensive player, I think people overstate him quite a bit.

In the Oilers' days, the moment Gretzky came over the boards the other team adjusted to him being on the ice.

Kurri was a great defensive forward but lets not pretend that a 70 goal scorer was hanging back at the blueline or whatever so that Gretzky and Coffey and company could play loose.


Quote:
I see what you are going for with the second line - draft Paul Kariya (who is an excellent catalyst for the second line) and try to recreate his real life line. You got the skill sets right, but I'm not sure about the skill. Gartner is okay - somewhat below average as a second liner, but brings a ton of speed and a pretty solid two-way game. When I saw the way your team was shaping up, I was really looking forward to seeing who you'd finish off this line with. I'm not sure about Bobby Smith as a glue guy. He brought some amount of grit, but I don't think he brought enough to really carry a line with an unphysical player like Gartner and a downright softie like Kariya.
I'm torn a bit on this line too. Gartner and Kariya have intimidating speed and a good mesh of playmaking with shooting. I think Smith kind of works.

He definitely supplies size to the line and he was a little gritty and he has good talent between those wingers too.

It could work.


Quote:
I love Gretzky on the second waive of the PK to take advantage of tired forwards.
Same.

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03-25-2013, 08:58 AM
  #24
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This keeps getting brought up but it isn't true.

Quinn did favour making key matchups and often employed shadows against key players too.
When? I didn't see it happen in the Sundin era in Toronto.

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03-25-2013, 09:05 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I don't think MacTavish is anything special, but at least he's on a 4th line this time, where he can grind away and play solid defense. MacGregor on the other hand, reads like a very strong two-way player who could pass as a third liner. McDonald seems like a solid all-rounder.

Spares

I was really hoping Tumba would be used on a 4th line this time. I think he's a better even strength player than MacTavish, but I guess you need MacT on the PK. If Frank Patrick/Art Duncan/Lloyd Cook/Bobby Rowe are #4s, then Loughlin could easily be a #6. He was behind them, but not THAT far behind. MacAdam could pass as a 4th liner, and Green is basically an offensive ringer I guess.

I would seriously consider dropping your least important spare and getting Quinn a good assistant, though.

Special teams

Great 1st PP, with Gartner the only weakness, and Gretzky and Geoffrion particularly strong. Goulet is the net guy I'm sure.

Second PP is pretty average all-round with Kariya really the only one who stands out as strong for his role. I guess Bobby Smith is passable as a net presence.

Pretty good penalty killing defensemen, though again those who are as anal as me want to see Quack on the left side and Stanley on the right side. Up front, Pavelich is an elite PKer. MacTavish really isn't anything special as a PKer, though he can do it, but I don't think you have anyone better to take faceoffs on the first unit unless you want Gretzky to do it, so that brings it down a little.

Overall

I like:

A ton of offense from the first line
Lots of scoring depth
Top 4 defensemen who are greater than the sum of their parts
Wayne Gretzky up front and Geoffrion on the point of the powerplay!

I have concerns about:

A fairly soft top 6, especially the second line
How will Cheevers handle a higher than average regular season workload?
Below average coaching and leadership, past Wayne Gretzky
Lack of a natural #1 penalty killing center (IMO, MacT is largely remembered for the team he played on)
I think you're being a bit harsh.

While he wasn't flashy or super speedy, (although decent), MacTavish had good ice sense and anticipation and would never gave up on pursuits or finishing his checks.

He would break up plays on the PK and either outlet for breakaways or was more likely be in the right place at the right time for shorthanded bids...he is top 20 all-time in SH goals.

Yes, he was only a 4th liner in his career and he was used sparingly in order to keep him fresh on the PK and give the stars a chance for rest, but that was what he did very well in both Boston and Edmonton. The only reason he left Boston was because of his DUI manslaughter. After his term he and Boston management felt it would be better for him in a different scene because of the stigma attached to his conviction.

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