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Adjusting for pace

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03-24-2013, 06:05 PM
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Adjusting for pace

What I am trying to do is make adjustments to production (points) by adjusting for the system that players play in. Obviously you would expect an equal player to be more productive in a more offensive system (like Philadelphia) than he would be in a more defensive system (like New Jersey). My problem is figuring out what statistics indicate that a team plays a more wide open style than another team? I thought maybe shots on goal would be a good place to start, but that does not seem to work. Scoring chances (for and against) would probably be a better indicator, but that information is not available for every team.

Does anyone have any suggestions as to what stats would be a good place to start for such an endeavor?

Last edited by Gags1288: 03-25-2013 at 01:53 PM.
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03-25-2013, 05:43 PM
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I don't think a traditional pace stat would work for hockey as it would for basketball. Basketball possessions are limited by the 24 second shot clock, which is inherently what makes the pace stats have relevance. Hockey doesn't have that. An effective possession could involve no shots on goal, while an ineffective one could involve 1 weak floater on net and 2 rebound shots that barely even move (just jamming it into a goalies pad from the goal line for example)

The only stats that would be useful to determine something similar to a pace stat (predicative of the total future goals scored) don't exist yet. I'm thinking of stats like time of puck on stick (puck possession through neutral zone, off the rush offense vs dump and chase, cycle offense) and average distance from puck to defensive stick (a measure defensive of gap control) both ways (while on offense, how much room is created and defensively how tight your gaps are).

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03-25-2013, 05:47 PM
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You'd probably need some data like SportVu provides for basketball to get a realistic grasp for hockey. So many dynamic factors, but zone possession time splits is maybe the best thing I can think of off the top of my head.

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