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Old
03-30-2013, 03:01 PM
  #451
lindgren
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Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
If Anaheim could maintain an EV SH% of over 10% for two consecutive seasons (they're at 11% right now), I'd seriously question the validity of the standard SH% analysis regardless of whether they won the Cup or not.

For what it's worth, just based on reasonable priors it is exceptionally more likely that you will have deviations from the models below the mean than above it. When the greatest talents to ever play the game (Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby, etc.) aren't able to raise their team's EV SH% upwards significantly when they are on the ice, it becomes extremely unlikely that an entire team has figured out how to do so. On the flip side, there are a number of reasonable circumstances in which you can see a team underpeforming their peripherals (for example, where you simply have an untalented team).
That seems fair. What would your response be if their shooting percentage fell back toward the mean but their winning percentage remained high? Would that suggest that they're now lucky in some other area?

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03-30-2013, 03:03 PM
  #452
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Neal won't work with Kesler.........Kesler need a set up guy more

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03-30-2013, 03:06 PM
  #453
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Neal won't work with Kesler.........Kesler need a set up guy more
Kesler has scored consistently for one regular season and one playoff series in his entire career, I'd rather let him worry about what he's good at, playing defence.

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03-30-2013, 03:07 PM
  #454
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That seems fair. What would your response be if their shooting percentage fell back toward the mean but their winning percentage remained high? Would that suggest that they're now lucky in some other area?
They're going to need to start outshooting their opponents for that to happen.

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03-30-2013, 03:20 PM
  #455
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
Once, playing with Crosby. Then he went into hibernation until this game. He's a ~50 point forward without Malkin (or Crosby). He compliments a #1C well but he's not a guy you would want to put on a line with someone like Kesler or anyone of lesser skill than him.
Not sure that's fair. He was playing with nobody of note while Malkin was out, because the Pens had no depth at the forward position. He wasn't even playing with Sutter. He was playing with table scraps.

Edit: Neal was about a 60 point player on the Stars, and he's a 12% shooter that gets a lot of pucks on net. I think he'd do just fine with someone like Kesler. He'd also kill on the PP with the Sedins because he has a better one-timer than anyone on the Canucks.

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03-30-2013, 03:26 PM
  #456
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That seems fair. What would your response be if their shooting percentage fell back toward the mean but their winning percentage remained high? Would that suggest that they're now lucky in some other area?
I think maybe you're missing what the original thrust of my argument was. The Ducks are being routinely outshot (they're near the bottom of the league in this regard). So unless they start to put a lot more pucks on net, or give up a lot less shots, they wouldn't continue winning games if their shooting percentage normalized to where it should probably be.

Of course, if they had really strong special teams, this could offset being a below average possession team. Or if they had really strong goaltending, but I don't think they do: Fasth/Hiller are pretty run-of-the-mill, though Hiller has been better of late.

If you think about it, 35 games isn't a lot of hockey.

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03-30-2013, 03:26 PM
  #457
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
They're going to need to start outshooting their opponents for that to happen.
Yes. They could also get dramatically better goaltending, or some other factor could contribute to much lower goals against. Perhaps their opponents could get collectively unlucky and their shooting percentages could plummet.

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03-30-2013, 03:30 PM
  #458
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Originally Posted by lindgren View Post
Yes. They could also get dramatically better goaltending, or some other factor could contribute to much lower goals against. Perhaps their opponents could get collectively unlucky and their shooting percentages could plummet.
It's unrealistic to expect them to get better goaltending than they're already getting.

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03-30-2013, 03:32 PM
  #459
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trade deadline day going to boring!

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Old
03-30-2013, 03:32 PM
  #460
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Originally Posted by lindgren View Post
Yes. They could also get dramatically better goaltending, or some other factor could contribute to much lower goals against. Perhaps their opponents could get collectively unlucky and their shooting percentages could plummet.
Their EV SV% is already 4th in the league. I don't think it can get dramatically better. It's already probably too high given the talent they have in net.

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03-30-2013, 03:35 PM
  #461
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Originally Posted by lindgren View Post
Yes. They could also get dramatically better goaltending, or some other factor could contribute to much lower goals against. Perhaps their opponents could get collectively unlucky and their shooting percentages could plummet.
PDO is a number that's derived by adding together a team's shooting percentage and save percentage at ES, so their opponents getting unlucky would still result in a high PDO for the Ducks, a statistic that tends to normalize over the course of a season.

That said, if you have a strong shooting club, or good ES goaltending like the Canucks have -- Luongo has consistently one of the best in the league at ES -- you will have some teams that appear to be lucky, but are actually just good teams at ES.

It's still a useful/easy stat to use if you're trying to figure out why the Leafs are seeing such strong results, though.

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03-30-2013, 03:35 PM
  #462
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
It's already probably too high given the talent they have in net.
I think Hiller is a bit too high for sure, but Fasth is right about where I would expect him to based on talent.

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03-30-2013, 03:39 PM
  #463
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
Their EV SV% is already 4th in the league. I don't think it can get dramatically better. It's already probably too high given the talent they have in net.
Yeah I think over the course of a season it would probably drop down to somewhere around 5 to 10 points. Still can't believe the extension Fasth got. I really think the Ducks are throwing out money based on some unsustainable numbers in their lineup and that team is could start to look ugly as sin in a couple years.

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03-30-2013, 03:41 PM
  #464
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
I think Hiller is a bit too high for sure, but Fasth is right about where I would expect him to based on talent.
Maybe. I haven't seen enough of him at the NHL level to say he's a 920-925 ES goalie.

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03-30-2013, 03:41 PM
  #465
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
I think Hiller is a bit too high for sure, but Fasth is right about where I would expect him to based on talent.
i don't personally know a ton about fasth. what has he done elsewhere that you'd think this is his true talent level?

edit: i could wiki him but i think you'd be more precise

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03-30-2013, 03:42 PM
  #466
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who are the duck going to play in the playoff? Hiller (experience) vs fasth(inexperience)

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03-30-2013, 03:43 PM
  #467
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Originally Posted by canuck4life16 View Post
who are the duck going to play in the playoff? Hiller (experience) vs fasth(inexperience)
i assume whoever's on the hotstreak at the time, or on less of a losing streak

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03-30-2013, 03:43 PM
  #468
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
i don't personally know a ton about fasth. what has he done elsewhere that you'd think this is his true talent level?

edit: i could wiki him but i think you'd be more precise
I dunno, just having seen him play this season and from what I've seen of him at other levels, he seems like a very good goaltender. He's one of those guys that has steadily improved for like 4-5 seasons now. Very good athletically, great technique, works extremely hard, good mental game, etc. I like him better than Hiller, personally.

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03-30-2013, 03:54 PM
  #469
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
I dunno, just having seen him play this season and from what I've seen of him at other levels, he seems like a very good goaltender. He's one of those guys that has steadily improved for like 4-5 seasons now. Very good athletically, great technique, works extremely hard, good mental game, etc. I like him better than Hiller, personally.
I dunno. 30 year old goalie who makes the league and gets an extension after 5 games. Seems like a pretty big gamble on their part. Just not sure where this faith is coming from.

Hiller, on the other hand, is having miserable luck at short-handed with an .815 SV%. I think Hiller is a pretty good goalie when he's healthy, but he's been up and down since his vertigo issues (pun intended?). Hiller looks like he's stealing the job back to me, as he's starting to see more ice than Fasth, who has struggled in recent games.

In fact, in every year but last year, Hiller has been about a 930 ES% goaltender, so it might not be unreasonable to expect him to keep up near his current play.

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03-30-2013, 03:57 PM
  #470
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I dunno. 30 year old journeyman who makes the league and gets an extension after 5 games. Seems like a pretty big gamble on their part. Just not sure where this faith is coming from.
How can you call him a 'journeyman'? This is his first NHL year. He only played 2 years in SEL prior and posted excellent numbers. He's a guy that has worked hard to get where he is and has improved gradually every year.

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03-30-2013, 05:13 PM
  #471
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
How can you call him a 'journeyman'? This is his first NHL year. He only played 2 years in SEL prior and posted excellent numbers. He's a guy that has worked hard to get where he is and has improved gradually every year.
Actually changed that before you commented, if only because I'm not sure it was accurate. Still, a guy that breaks into the league at 30 isn't someone with a very projectable track record.

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03-30-2013, 06:29 PM
  #472
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Actually changed that before you commented, if only because I'm not sure it was accurate. Still, a guy that breaks into the league at 30 isn't someone with a very projectable track record.
Well, Tim Thomas was also a special case. Sometimes guys just take a long time to get there.

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03-30-2013, 06:58 PM
  #473
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Well, Tim Thomas was also a special case. Sometimes guys just take a long time to get there.
Well, yeah, but I still don't see what he's done that suggests he's going to be Tim Thomas. It's like expecting someone to follow the Sedins career track. I just don't know why he'd get a 2 year 5.8 million dollar contract extension at this point. Just seems weird to me.

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03-30-2013, 07:01 PM
  #474
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If the stars align,

we could be seeing a Toronto/Boston playoff series, how good will that be?

Thronton, Lucic vs Orr, McLaren

Whoever makes out of that series is going to be banged up team.

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03-30-2013, 07:02 PM
  #475
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"Barrie, who was recalled March 25 from the Lake Erie Monsters of the American Hockey League, has scored two of the three goals scored by Avalanche defenseman this season."

Wow. That is pretty horrible.

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